1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to weak supply and demand. It is recommended to focus on reverse arbitrage [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate dropped 1.0 percentage point to 24.5% week - on - week, 0.1 percentage point higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In February 2026, domestic asphalt is expected to have a production of 1.936 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons (3.2%) month - on - month and 135,000 tons (6.5%) year - on - year. Some refineries postponed resuming production, and this week some refineries such as Qilu Petrochemical and Lanqiao Petrochemical resumed asphalt production, with the operating rate increasing slightly from a low level [1][4]. - Demand side: Last week, approaching the Spring Festival, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined. The operating rate of road asphalt dropped 5 percentage points to 9% week - on - week. In Shandong, after the price increase, the terminal demand was weak, and the national shipment volume decreased 1.33% to 211,600 tons week - on - week, at a moderately low level. Logistics gradually stopped approaching the Spring Festival, and spot trading became light [1]. - Inventory: As of the week of February 6, the asphalt refinery inventory rate dropped 0.2 percentage points to 13.4% week - on - week compared with the week of January 30, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw materials: The flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic refineries is severely restricted, which will affect domestic asphalt production and cost. The discount of Venezuelan crude oil offered by Vitol China has shrunk significantly. Although the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, it is still expected to be much lower than before the US intervention. It is expected that domestic refineries will still have raw material inventory available before March [1]. - Crude oil: The US and Iran will hold a new round of negotiations, but the US has warned ships flying the US flag to stay away from Iranian waters in the Strait of Hormuz. The market is worried about a military conflict between the two sides, and crude oil prices have rebounded [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2604 contract fell 0.21% to 3,350 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,340 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 3,379 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 2,502 to 156,425 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,210 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 04 contract dropped to - 140 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Investment data: From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased 5.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased 0.1 percentage point compared with January - October 2025 but was still negative. From January to December 2025, the actual completed fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased 6.0% year - on - year, continuing to decline compared with - 4.7% from January to November 2025. From January to December 2025, the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased 2.2% year - on - year, continuing to decline compared with - 1.1% from January to November 2025 [4]. - Social financing: From January to December 2025, the social financing stock increased 8.3% year - on - year, and the growth rate decreased 0.2 percentage point compared with January - November. The recovery of enterprises' medium - and long - term financing demand is still weak, and attention should be paid to the progress of forming physical workload [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate within a range, and reverse arbitrage is recommended [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply side: This week, the asphalt operating rate dropped by 1.0 percentage point to 24.5% week - on - week, 0.1 percentage point higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In February 2026, the domestic asphalt is expected to have a production of 1.936 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons (3.2%) month - on - month and 135,000 tons (6.5%) year - on - year. Next week, some refineries such as Qilu Petrochemical and Lanqiao Petrochemical will resume asphalt production, and the low - level asphalt operating rate will increase slightly [1] - Demand side: This week, approaching the Spring Festival, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined. The operating rate of road asphalt decreased by 5 percentage points to 9% week - on - week. After the price increase in Shandong, the terminal demand was weak, and the national shipment volume decreased by 1.33% to 211,600 tons, at a moderately low level [1] - Inventory: As of the week of February 6, the asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 13.4% week - on - week, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw materials: The flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic refineries is severely restricted, which will affect domestic asphalt production and costs. Although the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, it is still expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention [1] - Price: The asphalt price in Shandong decreased slightly, and the basis dropped to a relatively low level again. It is expected that domestic refineries will still have raw material inventories available before March. Due to the repeated geopolitical situation in Iran and the US reducing tariffs on India, Indian refineries may increase crude oil purchases from the Middle East and the Americas, leading to a slight rebound in crude oil prices [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2603 contract rose 0.92% to 3,386 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,324 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3,412 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 2,731 to 83,176 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3,240 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract dropped to - 146 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: The operating rate of asphalt decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 24.5% week - on - week, 0.1 percentage point higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. The investment in national highway construction from January to November increased by - 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage point compared with that from January to October 2025, but it was still negative. From January to December 2025, the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, continuing to decline compared with - 4.7% from January to November 2025. From January to December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased to - 2.2%, continuing to decline compared with - 1.1% from January to November 2025 [4] - Inventory: As of the week of February 6, the asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 13.4% week - on - week, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to focus on the situation in Venezuela and adopt a counter - spread strategy. The supply is affected by refinery production adjustments and the situation in Venezuela, while the demand is restricted by factors such as funds, weather, and project progress [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate increased by 1.8 percentage points to 27.2% week - on - week, 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In January 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 158,000 tons (7.3%) month - on - month and a decrease of 276,000 tons (12.1%) year - on - year. The resumption of production at major refineries in East China last week increased supply and shipments. This week, Shandong Shengxing Petrochemical switched to asphalt production, while Qilu Petrochemical and Dongming Petrochemical planned to stop production, keeping the asphalt operating rate at a low level. The US military action in Venezuela restricts the flow of heavy crude oil to domestic refineries, affecting asphalt production and costs [1]. - Demand: Last week, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined. Road asphalt operating rate decreased by 2 percentage points to 15% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. New snow and rain are coming, and road construction in the north is gradually ending, and southern projects are also entering the final stage, so the subsequent rigid demand will further slow down [1]. - Inventory: The asphalt refinery inventory rate continued to rise week - on - week and remained near the lowest level in recent years [1]. - Price: The asphalt price in Shandong decreased slightly, and the basis was at a relatively low - to - neutral level [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: The asphalt futures 2603 contract fell 0.03% to 3,139 yuan/ton today, below the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,124 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 3,156 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 985 to 190,549 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3,070 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract dropped to - 69 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - to - neutral level [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Liaoning Zhende resumed production, and the asphalt operating rate increased by 1.8 percentage points to 27.2% week - on - week, 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage point compared with the period from January to October 2025 but was still negative. From January to December 2025, the actual completed fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, continuing to decline from - 4.7% in the period from January to November 2025. From January to December 2025, the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, continuing to decline from - 1.1% in the period from January to November 2025. As of the week of January 16, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined, with the road asphalt operating rate decreasing by 2 percentage points to 15% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. From the perspective of social financing stock, from January to December 2025, the social financing stock increased by 8.3% year - on - year, and the growth rate decreased by 0.2 percentage point compared with the period from January to November, and the recovery of enterprise medium - and long - term financing demand remained weak [5]. - Inventory: As of the week of January 16, the asphalt refinery inventory rate increased by 0.7 percentage point to 14.1% compared with the week of January 9 and was near the lowest level in recent years [5].