供应端，沥青开工率环比回落0.3个百分点至21.4%，较去年同期低了4.5个百分点，处于近年同 期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，2026年2月份国内沥青预计排产193.6万吨，环比减少6.4万吨，减幅 为3.2%，同比减少13.5万吨，减幅为6.5%。本周春节假期结束，下游缓慢复工，沥青下游各行业开工 率多数上涨，其中道路沥青开工环比上涨4个百分点至4%。本周，春节假期，山东地区供应低位，加 之物流停滞，其出货量减少较多。全国出货量环比减少0.99%至13.04万吨，处于偏低水平。春节假期， 沥青厂库增加较多，但沥青炼厂库存率仍处于近年来同期的最低位。委内瑞拉重质原油流向国内地 炼严重受限，这将影响国内沥青的生产和成本，有消息称大型贸易商维多中国报价委内瑞拉原油贴 水5美元/桶，这比2025年12月份的贴水13美元/桶大幅缩小，国内炼厂获得委内瑞拉原油的可能性增 加，但预计委内瑞拉原油流向印度市场增加，中国进口委内瑞拉原油还是较美国介入前大幅下降， 关注国内炼厂原料短缺情况。春节假期沥青成交清淡。山东地区沥青价格今日小幅下跌，基差处于 中性偏低水平，预计3月份之前，国内炼厂仍有原料库存可用。沥青自身供需两弱，由于 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青日报：震荡运行 发布日期：2026年2月10日 【行情分析】 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落1.0个百分点至24.5%，较去年同期高了0.1个百分点，处于近 年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，2026年2月份国内沥青预计排产193.6万吨，环比减少6.4万吨， 减幅为3.2%，同比减少13.5万吨，减幅为6.5%。上周，临近春节，沥青下游各行业开工率多数下跌， 其中道路沥青开工环比下跌5个百分点至9%。上周，山东地区在价格上涨后终端需求疲软，其出货量 减少较多，全国出货量环比减少1.33%至21.16万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存率环比小幅下 降，处于近年来同期的最低位。委内瑞拉重质原油流向国内地炼严重受限，这将影响国内沥青的生 产和成本，有消息称大型贸易商维多中国报价委内瑞拉原油贴水5美元/桶，这比2025年12月份的贴 水13美元/桶大幅缩小，市场消息称Reliance采购约200万桶委油、4月到港，对布伦特折价约-6.50美 元/桶，国内炼厂获得委内瑞拉原油的可能性增加，但预计还是较美国介入前大幅下降，关注国内炼 厂原料短缺情况。本周齐鲁石化、岚桥石化等炼厂复产沥青，沥青开 ...

白宫强塞的1200万桶"烫手山芋"，中国买家为何连个表情包都懒得回？ 前言 国际原油市场这出大戏，最近演到了最高潮的"强买强卖"环节。白宫那帮老爷们估计昨晚又没睡好，眼瞅着1200万桶石 油跟一座座小山似的堆在码头，炼油厂的储油罐都要爆表了，急得像热锅上的蚂蚁。他们心里那个"如意算盘"打得噼里 啪啦响，想让中国买家来当这个"接盘侠"。结果呢？咱们这边的态度特别一致：已读不回。这四个字，比直接拒绝还让 人抓心挠肝。这哪是做生意，简直就是一场国际版的"你画我猜"，只不过美国画得满头大汗，中国这边连笔都没提起 来。 这种"已读不回"的态度，其实就是最明确的市场信号：不合算。就像你去菜市场买菜，老板强行给你塞一把烂叶子还想 卖出有机菜的价格，你除了翻个白眼走人，还能干啥？ 炼油厂的"消化不良"现场 数据不会说谎，但数据看着真让人揪心。就拿美国石油巨头雪佛龙来说，旗下的炼油厂上个月接收的委内瑞拉原油直接 飙升到了22万桶/天。看着挺多是吧？可他们的处理能力上限只有15万桶/天。这意味着啥？每天凭空多出7万桶石油没地 儿去，只能堆在库里吃灰。 这还只是一家。再看看维多集团和托克集团这两个倒霉蛋，今年1月从委内瑞拉运出的1 ...

冠通期货研究报告 --沥青周报 研究咨询部苏妙达 执业资格证号：F03104403/Z0018167 发布时间：2026年2月9日 投资有风险，入市需谨慎，本公司具备期货交易咨询业务资格，请务必阅读最后一页免责声明。 分析师苏妙达：F03104403/Z0018167 投资有风险，入市需谨慎。 行情分析 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落1.0个百分点至24.5%，较去年同期高了0.1个百分点，处于近年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯 数据，2026年2月份国内沥青预计排产193.6万吨，环比减少6.4万吨，减幅为3.2%，同比减少13.5万吨，减幅为6.5%。上周，临近 春节，沥青下游各行业开工率多数下跌，其中道路沥青开工环比下跌5个百分点至9%。上周，山东地区在价格上涨后终端需求疲软， 其出货量减少较多，全国出货量环比减少1.33%至21.16万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存率环比小幅下降，处于近年来同期 的最低位。委内瑞拉重质原油流向国内地炼严重受限，这将影响国内沥青的生产和成本，有消息称大型贸易商维多中国报价委内瑞 拉原油贴水5美元/桶，这比2025年12月份的贴水13美元/桶大幅缩小，印度石油公司高管表示， ...

如果要恢复到峰值产量350万桶每天，委内瑞拉需要投入上千亿美元。然而，当前油价低迷，谁会愿意做亏本生意呢？相比之下，墨西哥湾的轻质油更便 宜，而委内瑞拉的石油运输成本每桶高出1美元，加工成本也高出22%。根据雪佛龙的数据，1月的委内瑞拉油处理量为每天15万桶，但到厂的却是22万桶， 实际销售的不到10万桶。油轮在港口等了好几天，甚至有的油轮选择慢速航行。维多和托克集团从委内瑞拉运出的1200万桶原油也滞留在加勒比海的仓库 里，卖不动。特朗普原本希望通过这些石油来降低美国的能源价格，但最终却面临着市场饱和、库存堆积、成本无法回收的窘境。 到2025年，每天的石油过剩量达到140万桶，布伦特原油的价格从年初的75.93美元跌至年末的60.64美元，跌幅达到20%。西得克萨斯中质油的价格也下跌了 18.64%。到了2026年，年初的布伦特油价从1月9日的59.96美元继续跌至1月20日的55.99美元，仍然在持续走低。美国的石油大亨们焦虑不安，心急如焚， 如何将自家产的油卖出去成为他们的难题，而委内瑞拉的石油更是雪上加霜。委内瑞拉的石油属于重质原油，这种油的密度大、黏度高、硫含量多，开采和 加工成本极高，尤其需要添 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2026年2月6日 【行情分析】 供应端，本周沥青开工率环比回落1.0个百分点至24.5%，较去年同期高了0.1个百分点，处于近 年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，2026年2月份国内沥青预计排产193.6万吨，环比减少6.4万吨， 减幅为3.2%，同比减少13.5万吨，减幅为6.5%。本周，临近春节，沥青下游各行业开工率多数下跌， 其中道路沥青开工环比下跌5个百分点至9%。本周，山东地区在价格上涨后终端需求疲软，其出货量 减少较多，全国出货量环比减少1.33%至21.16万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥青炼厂库存率环比小幅下 降，处于近年来同期的最低位。委内瑞拉重质原油流向国内地炼严重受限，这将影响国内沥青的生 产和成本，有消息称大型贸易商维多中国报价委内瑞拉原油贴水5美元/桶，这比2025年12月份的贴 水13美元/桶大幅缩小，印度石油公司高管表示，委内瑞拉石油以每桶较迪拜原油贴水4-5美元的折 扣报价，国内炼厂获得委内瑞拉原油的可能性增加，但预计还是较美国介入前大幅下降，关注国内 炼厂原料短缺情况。下周齐鲁石化、岚桥石化等炼厂复产沥青，沥青开工低位小幅增加。临 ...

【冠通期货研究报告】 沥青日报：震荡上行 发布日期：2026年1月28日 【行情分析】 供应端，上周沥青开工率环比回落0.4个百分点至26.8%，较去年同期高了2.5个百分点，处于近 年同期偏低水平。据隆众资讯数据，2026年1月份国内沥青预计排产200万吨，环比减少15.8万吨，减 幅为7.3%，同比减少27.6万吨，减幅为12.1%。上周，沥青下游各行业开工率多数下跌，其中道路沥 青开工环比下跌1个百分点至14%，受到资金和天气制约。上周，国际油价带动船燃焦化下游采购积 极性，东北地区低硫沥青出货较多，全国出货量环比增加1.82%至22.77万吨，处于中性偏低水平。沥 青炼厂库存率环比小幅下降，仍处于近年来同期的最低位附近。委内瑞拉重质原油流向国内地炼严 重受限，这将影响国内沥青的生产和成本，有消息称大型贸易商维多中国报价委内瑞拉原油贴水5美 元/桶，这比2025年12月份的贴水13美元/桶大幅缩小，印度石油公司高管表示，委内瑞拉石油以每桶 较迪拜原油贴水4-5美元的折扣报价，国内炼厂获得委内瑞拉原油的可能性增加，但预计还是较美国 介入前大幅下降，关注国内炼厂原料短缺情况。本周山东地区部分地炼停产沥青，沥 ...

U.S. demand for imported fuel oil is set to fall this year as refiners snap up new flows of heavy Venezuelan crude, yielding more domestically produced fuel oil that can be processed into higher-value... ...

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to focus on reverse arbitrage. The supply is affected by refinery production adjustments and raw material supply, and the demand will further slow down due to seasonal factors. The current inventory is at a relatively low level, and the base price is also low [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - **Supply**: This week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 26.8% week - on - week, 2.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In January 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 158,000 tons (7.3%) month - on - month and 276,000 tons (12.1%) year - on - year. Next week, some local refineries in Shandong will stop producing asphalt, and the operating rate will remain low [1]. - **Demand**: This week, the operating rates of most downstream industries of asphalt declined. The road asphalt operating rate decreased by 1 percentage point to 14% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. With the decrease in temperature, the northern road construction is gradually ending, and the subsequent rigid demand will further slow down, and the southern projects are also entering the final stage [1]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of January 23, the asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 13.6% week - on - week, near the lowest level in recent years [5]. - **Price and Basis**: The price of asphalt in Shandong increased slightly, and the basis of the 03 contract rose to - 146 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [1][3]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: Today, the asphalt futures 2603 contract rose 0.68% to 3236 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3210 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 3256 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 16,693 to 186,664 lots [2]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply - Side Operating Rate**: Qilu Petrochemical and Dongming Petrochemical switched to producing residual oil, causing the asphalt operating rate to decline by 0.4 percentage points to 26.8% week - on - week, 2.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [5]. - **Investment Data**: From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. In 2025, from January to December, the fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, and the fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased by 2.2% year - on - year [5]. - **Social Financing Data**: From January to December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.3%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that from January to November, and the recovery of medium - and long - term financing demand of enterprises was still weak [5].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Report's Core View - The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to use reverse arbitrage. Attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela. The supply of asphalt is affected by factors such as refinery production adjustments and the availability of Venezuelan heavy - oil. Demand is constrained by funds, weather, and the progress of road construction projects [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt开工率 increased by 1.8 percentage points to 27.2% week - on - week, 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and at a relatively low level in recent years. In January 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 158,000 tons (7.3%) month - on - month and 276,000 tons (12.1%) year - on - year. The national asphalt shipment volume increased by 6.32% to 223,600 tons week - on - week. This week, Shandong Shengxing Petrochemical switched to asphalt production, while Qilu Petrochemical and Dongming Petrochemical planned to stop production, keeping the asphalt开工率 at a low level [1]. - Demand: Last week, the开工 rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined. The road asphalt开工率 decreased by 2 percentage points to 15% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. A new round of rain and snow is coming, with road construction in the north gradually ending and southern projects also entering the final stage [1]. - Inventory: The asphalt refinery inventory rate continued to rise week - on - week and remained near the lowest level in recent years [1]. - Geopolitical Impact: The US military action in Venezuela has restricted the flow of Venezuelan heavy - oil to domestic refineries, which will affect asphalt production and costs. Although the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude has increased, it is still expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2603 contract rose 0.45% to 3,157 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,134 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 3,167 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 3,111 to 187,438 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong region remained stable at 3,070 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract fell to - 87 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - to - neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Liaoning Zhende resumed production, and the asphalt开工率 increased by 1.8 percentage points to 27.2% week - on - week, 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [5]. - Investment in Road Construction: From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage points compared to January - October 2025 but was still negative. From January to December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased to - 6.0% from - 4.7% in January - November 2025. From January to December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased to - 2.2% from - 1.1% in January - November 2025 [5]. - Social Financing: From January to December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.3%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that from January to November. The recovery of medium - and long - term financing demand of enterprises was still weak [5]. - Inventory: As of the week of January 16, the asphalt refinery inventory rate increased by 0.7 percentage points to 14.1% compared to the week of January 9, remaining near the lowest level in recent years [5].