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沥青日报:低开后震荡运行-20260227
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-02-27 11:14
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The asphalt market has weak supply and demand. Due to the uncertainty of the US - Iran negotiation results and its significant impact on oil prices, it is expected that asphalt prices will fluctuate accordingly, and reverse arbitrage is recommended [1] Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1.行情分析 - The asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 21.4% week - on - week, 4.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [1][4] - In February 2026, the domestic asphalt is expected to have a production of 1.936 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons (3.2%) month - on - month and 135,000 tons (6.5%) year - on - year [1] - After the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries are slowly resuming work, and the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries have increased. The operating rate of road asphalt increased by 4 percentage points to 4% week - on - week [1][4] - During the Spring Festival, the supply in Shandong was at a low level, and the logistics was stagnant, resulting in a large decrease in shipments. The national shipments decreased by 0.99% to 130,400 tons, at a relatively low level [1] - During the Spring Festival, the asphalt factory inventory increased significantly, but the asphalt refinery inventory rate is still at the lowest level in recent years [1][4] - The flow of Venezuelan heavy - crude oil to domestic refineries is severely restricted, which will affect domestic asphalt production and costs. Although the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, the import of Venezuelan crude oil in China is still significantly lower than before the US intervention [1] - The asphalt trading was light during the Spring Festival. The asphalt price in Shandong decreased slightly today, and the basis is at a relatively low - neutral level. It is expected that domestic refineries will still have raw material inventory available before March [1] 2.期现行情 - The asphalt futures contract 2604 fell 0.03% to 3,346 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,303 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 3,354 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 12,386 to 103,840 lots [2] 3.基差方面 - The mainstream market price in Shandong decreased to 3,290 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 04 contract rose to - 56 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - neutral level [3] 4.基本面跟踪 - On the supply side, some major refineries in the south produce intermittently, and the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.3 percentage points to 21.4% week - on - week, 4.5 percentage points lower than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [4] - From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage points compared with January - October 2025, but it is still negative [4] - From January to December 2025, the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, continuing to decline from - 4.7% from January to November 2025, still in a cumulative year - on - year negative growth situation [4] - From January to December 2025, the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased by 2.2% year - on - year, continuing to decline from - 1.1% from January to November 2025 [4] - As of the week of February 27, after the Spring Festival holiday, downstream industries are slowly resuming work, and the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries have increased. The operating rate of road asphalt increased by 4 percentage points to 4% week - on - week [4] - As of the week of February 27, the asphalt refinery inventory rate increased by 2.4 percentage points to 16.4% compared with the week of February 13. During the Spring Festival, the asphalt factory inventory increased significantly, but the asphalt refinery inventory rate is still at the lowest level in recent years [4]
沥青日报:震荡运行-20260210
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-02-10 11:26
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is expected to fluctuate in the short - term due to weak supply and demand. It is recommended to focus on reverse arbitrage [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply side: Last week, the asphalt operating rate dropped 1.0 percentage point to 24.5% week - on - week, 0.1 percentage point higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In February 2026, domestic asphalt is expected to have a production of 1.936 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons (3.2%) month - on - month and 135,000 tons (6.5%) year - on - year. Some refineries postponed resuming production, and this week some refineries such as Qilu Petrochemical and Lanqiao Petrochemical resumed asphalt production, with the operating rate increasing slightly from a low level [1][4]. - Demand side: Last week, approaching the Spring Festival, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined. The operating rate of road asphalt dropped 5 percentage points to 9% week - on - week. In Shandong, after the price increase, the terminal demand was weak, and the national shipment volume decreased 1.33% to 211,600 tons week - on - week, at a moderately low level. Logistics gradually stopped approaching the Spring Festival, and spot trading became light [1]. - Inventory: As of the week of February 6, the asphalt refinery inventory rate dropped 0.2 percentage points to 13.4% week - on - week compared with the week of January 30, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4]. - Raw materials: The flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic refineries is severely restricted, which will affect domestic asphalt production and cost. The discount of Venezuelan crude oil offered by Vitol China has shrunk significantly. Although the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, it is still expected to be much lower than before the US intervention. It is expected that domestic refineries will still have raw material inventory available before March [1]. - Crude oil: The US and Iran will hold a new round of negotiations, but the US has warned ships flying the US flag to stay away from Iranian waters in the Strait of Hormuz. The market is worried about a military conflict between the two sides, and crude oil prices have rebounded [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2604 contract fell 0.21% to 3,350 yuan/ton, below the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,340 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 3,379 yuan/ton. The open interest increased by 2,502 to 156,425 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong remained at 3,210 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 04 contract dropped to - 140 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Investment data: From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased 5.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased 0.1 percentage point compared with January - October 2025 but was still negative. From January to December 2025, the actual completed fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased 6.0% year - on - year, continuing to decline compared with - 4.7% from January to November 2025. From January to December 2025, the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased 2.2% year - on - year, continuing to decline compared with - 1.1% from January to November 2025 [4]. - Social financing: From January to December 2025, the social financing stock increased 8.3% year - on - year, and the growth rate decreased 0.2 percentage point compared with January - November. The recovery of enterprises' medium - and long - term financing demand is still weak, and attention should be paid to the progress of forming physical workload [4].
白宫急眼了!1200万桶石油烂手里,求中国接盘却遭“已读不回”,这波操作亏到姥姥家?
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-09 20:34
Group 1 - The article discusses the U.S. government's failed attempt to sell 12 million barrels of Venezuelan oil to Chinese buyers, who have shown no interest in purchasing it [1][3] - The U.S. had hoped to generate $35 billion by selling this oil, but the heavy crude oil from Venezuela is difficult to refine, leading to excess inventory at U.S. refineries [3][4] - Chevron's refineries have seen an increase in Venezuelan oil intake to 220,000 barrels per day, exceeding their processing capacity of 150,000 barrels per day, resulting in a surplus of 70,000 barrels daily [3] Group 2 - The U.S. administration misjudged China's oil demand, as China has already surpassed the International Energy Agency's 90-day safety stock level and is not in a rush to buy expensive Venezuelan oil [6] - The price discount for Venezuelan oil has decreased to $9.5 per barrel, making it less attractive compared to Canadian oil, which is cheaper by $1 per barrel [6] - U.S. companies are also hesitant to invest in the oil sector due to past experiences, such as ConocoPhillips' forced takeover in Venezuela, which resulted in a $12 billion arbitration award that has yet to be paid [7] Group 3 - The situation reflects a broader issue of the U.S. underestimating market dynamics, believing that holding resources allows them to dictate prices and find buyers through pressure tactics [8] - The 12 million barrels of oil represent a significant burden on the U.S. energy market, highlighting the challenges faced by U.S. refiners who are unable to process the excess supply [8] - The silence from Chinese buyers serves as a clear market signal that they are not willing to engage in unfavorable deals, emphasizing the shift towards a buyer's market [8]
沥青周报:冠通期货研究报告-20260209
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-02-09 11:01
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The supply - demand of asphalt is weak in the short - term. It is expected that asphalt will fluctuate within a range, and it is recommended to focus on reverse arbitrage [3] 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Supply - The asphalt start - up rate last week decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 24.5% week - on - week, 0.1 percentage point higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [3][20] - In February 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 1.936 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons (3.2%) month - on - month and 135,000 tons (6.5%) year - on - year [3] - This week, refineries such as Qilu Petrochemical and Lanqiao Petrochemical resumed asphalt production, and the asphalt start - up rate increased slightly from a low level [3] 3.2 Demand - As of the week of February 6, approaching the Spring Festival, the start - up rates of most downstream industries of asphalt declined. The start - up rate of road asphalt decreased by 5 percentage points to 9% week - on - week [3][29] - From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage point compared with that from January to October 2025, but it was still negative. In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in road transport from January to December was - 6.0%, a further decline from - 4.7% from January to November. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the completed fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to December 2025 was - 2.2%, a further decline from - 1.1% from January to November [29] - After the price increase in Shandong last week, the terminal demand was weak, and the shipment volume decreased significantly. The national shipment volume decreased by 1.33% to 211,600 tons week - on - week, at a relatively low - to - neutral level [3][25] 3.3 Inventory - As of the week of February 6, the asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 13.4% compared with the week of January 30, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [34] 3.4 Price - The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3,240 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract dropped to - 146 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [16] 3.5 Impact of Raw Materials - The flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic local refineries is severely restricted, which will affect domestic asphalt production and cost. Large trader Vitol China quotes Venezuelan crude oil at a discount of $5/barrel, much smaller than the $13/barrel discount in December 2025. Indian Oil executives said that Venezuelan oil is quoted at a discount of $4 - 5/barrel compared with Dubai crude oil. The possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, but it is still expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention. Attention should be paid to the shortage of raw materials in domestic refineries [3] - It is expected that domestic refineries still have raw material inventory available before March. The geopolitical situation in Iran is volatile. The US has reduced the tariffs imposed on India. Indian refineries may increase the procurement of crude oil from the Middle East and the Americas, and the crude oil price has rebounded slightly [3]
特朗普怎么也没有想到,委内瑞拉的石油,正在撑破美国的肚子
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2026-02-08 08:41
Group 1 - The article discusses the challenges faced by the oil industry, particularly in relation to the oversupply of oil and the impact on prices, with Brent crude oil prices dropping from $75.93 to $60.64, a decrease of 20% [4] - Venezuela's oil production is significantly hampered by high costs and logistical issues, with the processing costs being $1 more per barrel for transportation and 22% higher for processing compared to lighter oils from the Gulf of Mexico [3] - The U.S. initially aimed to control 40% of global oil production to influence prices, but the oversupply has undermined this strategy, leading to a situation where oil sales are heavily restricted and revenues are diminished [8][10] Group 2 - By 2026, global oil oversupply is projected to reach between 750,000 to 3.5 million barrels per day, with average oil prices around $56 [5] - The U.S. oil market is struggling to absorb Venezuelan oil, which has seen a threefold increase in exports to the U.S. at 284,000 barrels per day, yet refiners still complain about high prices [5][11] - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with countries like China moving towards West African and Middle Eastern heavy oils, which has led to increased prices in those regions [6][8] Group 3 - The article highlights the complexities of U.S. policies towards Venezuela, where the government is attempting to reshape the energy landscape but faces significant obstacles, including the need for major reforms to attract investment [5][10] - Analysts predict that if tensions with Iran ease, the oil market could stabilize, but the absorption capacity of the U.S. market remains limited [11] - The article concludes that while the U.S. has gained some control over Venezuelan oil, the overall situation remains precarious, with the potential for greater economic volatility [12]
沥青日报:震荡上行-20260206
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-02-06 09:54
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The asphalt market is in a situation of weak supply and demand. In the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate within a range, and reverse arbitrage is recommended [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply side: This week, the asphalt operating rate dropped by 1.0 percentage point to 24.5% week - on - week, 0.1 percentage point higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In February 2026, the domestic asphalt is expected to have a production of 1.936 million tons, a decrease of 64,000 tons (3.2%) month - on - month and 135,000 tons (6.5%) year - on - year. Next week, some refineries such as Qilu Petrochemical and Lanqiao Petrochemical will resume asphalt production, and the low - level asphalt operating rate will increase slightly [1] - Demand side: This week, approaching the Spring Festival, the operating rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined. The operating rate of road asphalt decreased by 5 percentage points to 9% week - on - week. After the price increase in Shandong, the terminal demand was weak, and the national shipment volume decreased by 1.33% to 211,600 tons, at a moderately low level [1] - Inventory: As of the week of February 6, the asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased by 0.2 percentage points to 13.4% week - on - week, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4] - Raw materials: The flow of Venezuelan heavy crude oil to domestic refineries is severely restricted, which will affect domestic asphalt production and costs. Although the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude oil has increased, it is still expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention [1] - Price: The asphalt price in Shandong decreased slightly, and the basis dropped to a relatively low level again. It is expected that domestic refineries will still have raw material inventories available before March. Due to the repeated geopolitical situation in Iran and the US reducing tariffs on India, Indian refineries may increase crude oil purchases from the Middle East and the Americas, leading to a slight rebound in crude oil prices [1] 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2603 contract rose 0.92% to 3,386 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average. The lowest price was 3,324 yuan/ton, and the highest was 3,412 yuan/ton. The open interest decreased by 2,731 to 83,176 lots [2] - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong dropped to 3,240 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract dropped to - 146 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [3] 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply: The operating rate of asphalt decreased by 1.0 percentage point to 24.5% week - on - week, 0.1 percentage point higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. The investment in national highway construction from January to November increased by - 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage point compared with that from January to October 2025, but it was still negative. From January to December 2025, the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transport industry decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, continuing to decline compared with - 4.7% from January to November 2025. From January to December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased to - 2.2%, continuing to decline compared with - 1.1% from January to November 2025 [4] - Inventory: As of the week of February 6, the asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased by 0.2 percentage point to 13.4% week - on - week, at the lowest level in the same period in recent years [4]
沥青日报:震荡上行-20260128
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-01-28 11:21
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided 2. Core Viewpoints - The asphalt market is expected to show a strong and volatile trend in the short - term, and it is recommended to focus on reverse arbitrage. The supply is affected by the limited inflow of Venezuelan heavy - crude oil, and the demand will further slow down due to the end of construction projects. The price of Venezuelan oil in Asia has risen, and the supply of asphalt at the end of the month is tight [1]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 26.8% week - on - week, 2.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In January 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 158,000 tons (7.3%) month - on - month and 276,000 tons (12.1%) year - on - year. Some local refineries in Shandong stopped asphalt production this week, and the asphalt operating rate remained low [1]. - Demand: Last week, the operating rates of most downstream industries of asphalt declined. The operating rate of road asphalt decreased by 1 percentage point to 14% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. With the decrease in temperature, road construction in the north is gradually ending, and rigid demand will further slow down. Southern projects are also gradually entering the final stage [1]. - Inventory: The inventory rate of asphalt refineries decreased slightly week - on - week and is still near the lowest level in recent years. As of the week of January 23, the inventory rate of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 13.6% compared with the week of January 16 [1][4]. - Price: The price of asphalt in Shandong increased slightly, and the basis is at a relatively low level. The price of Venezuelan oil sold in Asia has risen, and the supply of asphalt at the end of the month is tight [1]. 3.2 Futures and Spot Market Conditions - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2603 contract rose 3.96% to 3410 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3266 yuan/ton and a maximum price of 3430 yuan/ton. The trading volume increased by 11,938 to 175,279 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong rose to 3210 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract remained at - 200 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [3]. 3.3 Fundamental Tracking - Supply - related indicators: Qilu Petrochemical and Dongming Petrochemical switched to producing residual oil, and the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 26.8% week - on - week, 2.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year. From January to November, the investment in national highway construction decreased by 5.9% year - on - year, and the cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage point compared with January - October 2025 but was still negative. In 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the actual completed fixed - asset investment in the road transportation industry from January to December was - 6.0%, continuing to decline from - 4.7% from January to November 2025. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of the fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) from January to December 2025 was - 2.2%, continuing to decline from - 1.1% from January to November 2025 [4]. - Demand - related indicators: As of the week of January 23, the operating rates of most downstream industries of asphalt declined. The operating rate of road asphalt decreased by 1 percentage point to 14% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. From January to December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.3%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that from January to November, and the recovery of the medium - and long - term financing demand of enterprises was still weak [4]. - Inventory indicators: As of the week of January 23, the inventory rate of asphalt refineries decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 13.6% compared with the week of January 16, and the inventory rate of asphalt refineries was near the lowest level in recent years [4].
Return of Venezuelan crude could cut US fuel oil imports
Reuters· 2026-01-27 17:31
Core Viewpoint - U.S. demand for imported fuel oil is expected to decline this year as refiners increase their intake of heavy Venezuelan crude, leading to a rise in domestically produced fuel oil that can be converted into higher-value products [1] Industry Summary - The shift in U.S. fuel oil demand is attributed to refiners capitalizing on new supplies of heavy Venezuelan crude [1] - Increased domestic production of fuel oil is anticipated, which will allow for the processing into more valuable refined products [1]
【冠通期货研究报告】沥青日报:震荡运行-20260123
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-01-23 11:32
Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to focus on reverse arbitrage. The supply is affected by refinery production adjustments and raw material supply, and the demand will further slow down due to seasonal factors. The current inventory is at a relatively low level, and the base price is also low [1]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Analysis - **Supply**: This week, the asphalt operating rate decreased by 0.4 percentage points to 26.8% week - on - week, 2.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years. In January 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 158,000 tons (7.3%) month - on - month and 276,000 tons (12.1%) year - on - year. Next week, some local refineries in Shandong will stop producing asphalt, and the operating rate will remain low [1]. - **Demand**: This week, the operating rates of most downstream industries of asphalt declined. The road asphalt operating rate decreased by 1 percentage point to 14% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. With the decrease in temperature, the northern road construction is gradually ending, and the subsequent rigid demand will further slow down, and the southern projects are also entering the final stage [1]. - **Inventory**: As of the week of January 23, the asphalt refinery inventory rate decreased by 0.5 percentage points to 13.6% week - on - week, near the lowest level in recent years [5]. - **Price and Basis**: The price of asphalt in Shandong increased slightly, and the basis of the 03 contract rose to - 146 yuan/ton, at a relatively low level [1][3]. 2. Futures and Spot Market Conditions - **Futures**: Today, the asphalt futures 2603 contract rose 0.68% to 3236 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3210 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 3256 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 16,693 to 186,664 lots [2]. 3. Fundamental Tracking - **Supply - Side Operating Rate**: Qilu Petrochemical and Dongming Petrochemical switched to producing residual oil, causing the asphalt operating rate to decline by 0.4 percentage points to 26.8% week - on - week, 2.5 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [5]. - **Investment Data**: From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. In 2025, from January to December, the fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased by 6.0% year - on - year, and the fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased by 2.2% year - on - year [5]. - **Social Financing Data**: From January to December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.3%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that from January to November, and the recovery of medium - and long - term financing demand of enterprises was still weak [5].
沥青日报:高开后震荡运行-20260121
Guan Tong Qi Huo· 2026-01-21 12:43
Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Report's Core View - The asphalt futures price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to use reverse arbitrage. Attention should be paid to the situation in Venezuela. The supply of asphalt is affected by factors such as refinery production adjustments and the availability of Venezuelan heavy - oil. Demand is constrained by funds, weather, and the progress of road construction projects [1]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - Supply: Last week, the asphalt开工率 increased by 1.8 percentage points to 27.2% week - on - week, 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year, and at a relatively low level in recent years. In January 2026, the domestic asphalt production is expected to be 2 million tons, a decrease of 158,000 tons (7.3%) month - on - month and 276,000 tons (12.1%) year - on - year. The national asphalt shipment volume increased by 6.32% to 223,600 tons week - on - week. This week, Shandong Shengxing Petrochemical switched to asphalt production, while Qilu Petrochemical and Dongming Petrochemical planned to stop production, keeping the asphalt开工率 at a low level [1]. - Demand: Last week, the开工 rates of most downstream asphalt industries declined. The road asphalt开工率 decreased by 2 percentage points to 15% week - on - week, restricted by funds and weather. A new round of rain and snow is coming, with road construction in the north gradually ending and southern projects also entering the final stage [1]. - Inventory: The asphalt refinery inventory rate continued to rise week - on - week and remained near the lowest level in recent years [1]. - Geopolitical Impact: The US military action in Venezuela has restricted the flow of Venezuelan heavy - oil to domestic refineries, which will affect asphalt production and costs. Although the possibility of domestic refineries obtaining Venezuelan crude has increased, it is still expected to be significantly lower than before the US intervention [1]. Futures and Spot Market Quotes - Futures: Today, the asphalt futures 2603 contract rose 0.45% to 3,157 yuan/ton, above the 5 - day moving average, with a minimum price of 3,134 yuan/ton, a maximum price of 3,167 yuan/ton, and the open interest decreased by 3,111 to 187,438 lots [2]. - Basis: The mainstream market price in Shandong region remained stable at 3,070 yuan/ton, and the basis of the asphalt 03 contract fell to - 87 yuan/ton, at a relatively low - to - neutral level [3]. Fundamental Tracking - Supply: Refineries such as Liaoning Zhende resumed production, and the asphalt开工率 increased by 1.8 percentage points to 27.2% week - on - week, 0.2 percentage points higher than the same period last year, at a relatively low level in recent years [5]. - Investment in Road Construction: From January to November, the national highway construction investment decreased by 5.9% year - on - year. The cumulative year - on - year growth rate increased by 0.1 percentage points compared to January - October 2025 but was still negative. From January to December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in road transportation decreased to - 6.0% from - 4.7% in January - November 2025. From January to December 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of fixed - asset investment in infrastructure construction (excluding electricity) decreased to - 2.2% from - 1.1% in January - November 2025 [5]. - Social Financing: From January to December 2025, the year - on - year growth rate of social financing stock was 8.3%, 0.2 percentage points lower than that from January to November. The recovery of medium - and long - term financing demand of enterprises was still weak [5]. - Inventory: As of the week of January 16, the asphalt refinery inventory rate increased by 0.7 percentage points to 14.1% compared to the week of January 9, remaining near the lowest level in recent years [5].