交易咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】1091号 沥青期货早报 2026年3月26日 大越期货投资咨询部 金泽彬 从业资格证号：F3048432 投资咨询证：Z0015557 联系方式：0575-85226759 1 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议 。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 目 录 1 每日观点 2 基本面/持仓数据 每日观点 | | | ， | 2026年3月份国内沥青总排产量为218 7万吨 环比增 ， . | ， | | | | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | 加25 1万吨 增幅13 ， . . | 0% 同比下降4 3万吨 降幅1 9% 本周国内石油沥青样本产能利用率为 ， ， 。 . . | | | | | | | | | | | | 22 7709% 环比减少1 . ， | 80个百分点 全国样本企业出货10 989万吨 环比 ...

行业 沥青日报 日期 2026 年 1 月 9 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 期货从业资格号：F3015157 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（碳市场工业硅） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 ...

Report Investment Rating - The investment view of the asphalt industry is "oscillation" [4] Core View - This week, asphalt fluctuated following crude oil. Supply, demand, inventory, and cost factors all influenced the asphalt market, with overall supply contracting, demand declining, inventory showing mixed trends, and cost affected by international oil price fluctuations. The asphalt market is expected to continue to fluctuate following crude oil [4] Summary by Directory Part One: Main Views and Strategy Overview - **Supply**: Affected by season and equipment maintenance, the total domestic asphalt production plan in November was 2.25 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18% and a year - on - year decrease of 3%. The capacity utilization rate of 77 domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises was 29%, a 0.7% month - on - month decrease [4] - **Demand**: Affected by capital and cold air, demand declined overall. This week, the domestic shipment volume was 362,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 18.7%. Terminal demand rebounded slightly, and subsequent shipments are expected to increase to about 380,000 tons [4] - **Inventory**: Factory inventories showed mixed trends but overall increased. Social inventories in most regions decreased, especially in Shandong [4] - **Cost**: International oil prices fluctuated downward this week, with Brent crude closing at $63.92 per barrel, affected by OPEC supply signals, regional events, and supply - demand expectations [4] - **Investment and Trading Strategy**: The investment view is "oscillation". The unilateral trading strategy is also "oscillation", and there is no arbitrage strategy. Key risks to watch include OPEC+ production increases, geopolitical disturbances, and Trump's policies [4] Part Two: Price - The report presents price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in different regions such as East China, South China, North China, and Shandong from 2021 to 2025 [9] Part Two: Spread & Basis & Delivery Profit - It shows the trends of asphalt cracking spread, asphalt - coker feedstock spread, and asphalt basis in main regions from 2021 to 2025 [13][14][15] Part Two: Supply - **Production Forecast**: The report shows monthly asphalt production and production forecasts in China from 2025 - 01 to 2025 - 10 [18] - **Capacity Utilization**: It presents the capacity utilization rates of heavy - traffic asphalt in China, Shandong, East China, North China, and South China from 2021 to 2025. This week, the capacity utilization rate was 29% [30][34][36] - **Maintenance Loss**: It shows weekly and monthly asphalt maintenance loss volumes in China from 2018 to 2025 [41] Part Two: Cost & Profit - It shows the production gross profit of asphalt in Shandong from 2021 to 2025, as well as the price, premium, and port inventory of diluted asphalt from 2022 to 2025 [44][45][48] Part Three: Inventory - **Factory Inventory**: It shows the factory inventory volumes and inventory rates in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [53][56] - **Social Inventory**: It shows the social inventory volumes in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [59] Part Three: Demand - **Shipment Volume**: It shows the asphalt shipment volumes in China, Shandong, East China, North China, South China, and Northeast China from 2022 to 2025 [62] - **Downstream Operating Rate**: It shows the operating rates of road modified asphalt, modified asphalt, building asphalt, and waterproofing membranes from 2018 to 2025, as well as the operating rates of modified asphalt in different regions from 2022 to 2025 [64][65][68][71]