Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper market may face pressure due to weakening supply and demand and accumulating inventory. The Fed's report shows little change in overall economic activity, with a slight decline in retail spending and stable employment. In China, September's CPI and PPI data indicate a complex economic situation. The supply of copper concentrates remains tight, and smelting capacity may be limited. High copper prices are suppressing downstream demand. Overall, the fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of weak supply and demand, with inventory accumulation. It is recommended to trade with a light position in a weak and volatile manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [6]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Performance**: The Shanghai copper main contract declined in a volatile manner on the weekly line, with a weekly increase or decrease of -1.77% and an amplitude of 4.84%. As of the end of this week, the main contract closed at 84,390 yuan/ton [6]. - **International Situation**: The Fed's report shows that overall economic activity has changed little, with a slight decline in overall consumer spending, especially retail spending, and stable employment levels [6]. - **Domestic Situation**: In September, China's CPI rose 0.1% month - on - month and decreased 0.3% year - on - year. PPI remained flat month - on - month and decreased 2.3% year - on - year, with the decline narrowing for two consecutive months [6]. - **Fundamentals**: The supply of copper concentrates remains tight, TC fees are in the negative range, and overseas mine disturbances still have an impact. Due to many smelting overhauls and tight supplies of copper ore and blister copper, smelting capacity may be limited. High copper prices are suppressing downstream demand, and the market is in a situation of weak supply and demand with inventory accumulation [6]. - **Strategy Recommendation**: Trade with a light position in a weak and volatile manner, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [6]. 2. Futures and Spot Market - **Futures Contract**: As of October 17, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract had a basis of 385 yuan/ton, a decrease of 385 yuan/ton compared to last week. The main contract was quoted at 84,390 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,520 yuan/ton compared to last week, and the position volume was 215,573 lots, a decrease of 542 lots compared to last week [9]. - **Spot Price**: As of October 17, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 84,775 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 1,215 yuan/ton [17]. - **Cross - period Contract**: As of October 17, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract's cross - month cross - period quote was 40 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton compared to last week [17]. - **Premium and Position**: As of the latest data this week, the average CIF premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 50 US dollars/ton, a decrease of 4 US dollars/ton compared to last week. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was a net short of - 7,073 lots, an increase of 2,601 lots compared to last week [23]. - **Options Market**: As of October 17, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper main at - the - money option contract fell below the 90th percentile of historical volatility. As of this week's data, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper options was 0.7621, an increase of 0.0217 compared to last week [28]. 3. Industrial Situation Upstream - **Quotes and Processing Fees**: As of the latest data this week, the copper concentrate quote in the main domestic mining area (Jiangxi) was 75,140 yuan/ton, a decrease of 240 yuan/ton compared to last week. The southern blister copper processing fee was quoted at 1,000 yuan/ton, with no change compared to last week [31]. - **Imports and Price Difference**: As of August 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.7593 million tons, an increase of 199,200 tons compared to July, with an increase rate of 7.78% and a year - on - year increase rate of 7.27%. As of the latest data this week, the price difference between refined and scrap copper (including tax) was 2,941.71 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1,071.9 yuan/ton compared to last week [36]. - **Production and Inventory**: As of July 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 2,012 thousand tons, an increase of 90 thousand tons compared to June, with an increase rate of 4.68%. The global capacity utilization rate of copper concentrates was 80.5%, an increase of 0.9% compared to June. As of the latest data, the inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 509,000 tons, an increase of 29,000 tons compared to the previous week [41]. Supply - side of Refined Copper - **Production**: As of August 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.301 million tons, an increase of 31,000 tons compared to July, with an increase rate of 2.44% and a year - on - year increase rate of 16.06%. As of July 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,498 thousand tons, an increase of 77 thousand tons compared to June, with an increase rate of 3.18%. The capacity utilization rate of refined copper was 82.8%, a decrease of 0.4% compared to June [43][44]. - **Imports**: As of August 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 307,228.226 tons, a decrease of 27,328.7 tons compared to July, with a decrease rate of 8.17% and a year - on - year increase rate of 11.09%. As of the latest data this week, the import profit and loss amount was - 213.37 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3,423.37 yuan/ton compared to last week [52][53]. - **Inventory**: As of the latest data this week, the total LME inventory decreased by 1,950 tons compared to last week, the total COMEX inventory increased by 5,127 tons compared to last week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 12,885 tons compared to last week. The total social inventory was 183,100 tons, an increase of 2,100 tons compared to last week [56]. Downstream and Applications - **Copper Products**: As of August 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.2219 million tons, an increase of 52,600 tons compared to July, with an increase rate of 2.42%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 430,000 tons, a decrease of 50,000 tons compared to July, with a decrease rate of 10.42% and a year - on - year increase rate of 2.38% [62]. - **Applications**: As of August 2025, the cumulative investment completion amount of power and grid investment increased by 0.5% and 14% year - on - year respectively. The monthly production values of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs increased by - 1.6%, 12.3%, 2.5%, - 0.5%, and - 3.2% year - on - year respectively. The cumulative investment completion amount of real estate development was 603.0919 billion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 12.9% and a month - on - month increase of 12.56%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 342.912327 million pieces, a year - on - year increase of 8.8% and a month - on - month increase of 16.42% [66][73]. Overall Situation - **Global Supply and Demand**: As of July 2025, according to ICSG statistics, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of excess supply, with a monthly value of 57 thousand tons. As of August 2025, according to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance value was 256,500 tons [78][79].

Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report [1][2] Core Viewpoints - The international economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic, with a slight decline in manufacturing activity and cautious corporate hiring The domestic government is taking measures to strengthen the domestic market cycle and boost consumption [4] - The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation where supply increases slightly and demand is temporarily weak, with industrial inventories at a medium - low level Overall, Shanghai copper may face pressure [4] - It is recommended to conduct light - position oscillating trading and pay attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [4] Summary by Directory 1. Week - to - Week Summary - **Market Review**: The Shanghai copper main contract oscillated at a low level on the weekly chart, with a weekly change of - 0.03% and an amplitude of 1.13%, closing at 78,410 yuan/ton [4] - **Fundamentals**: Internationally, the economic outlook is neutral to slightly pessimistic Domestically, policies aim to boost the domestic market cycle In the mining end, the copper concentrate TC spot index rebounded slightly but remained in negative territory, and port inventories increased slightly Supply may increase steadily due to sufficient raw materials and good by - product prices Demand was affected by the seasonal off - season, with lower downstream processing enterprise operations and orders, and cautious purchasing The domestic social inventory increased slightly but remained at a medium - low level [4] 2. Spot and Futures Market - **Futures Contracts**: As of July 18, 2025, the Shanghai copper main contract had a basis of 250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton from last week The contract price was 78,410 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton from last week, and the open interest was 145,430 lots, a decrease of 33,252 lots from last week [9] - **Spot Prices**: As of July 18, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 78,660 yuan/ton, a week - on - week increase of 665 yuan/ton The main contract's inter - month spread was - 40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 270 yuan/ton from last week [12] - **Premiums and Positions**: As of the latest data, the Shanghai electrolytic copper CIF average premium was 65 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3 US dollars/ton from last week The net short position of the top 20 holders of Shanghai copper was 1,352 lots, an increase of 255 lots from last week [21] - **Options Market**: As of July 18, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the Shanghai copper main at - the - money option contract fell below the 50th percentile of historical volatility The put - call ratio of Shanghai copper options was 0.6265, an increase of 0.0238 from last week [26] 3. Upstream Situation - **Mining Quotes and Processing Fees**: As of the latest data, the copper concentrate quote in the main mining area (Jiangxi) was 68,910 yuan/ton, an increase of 110 yuan/ton from last week The southern rough copper processing fee was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [29] - **Imports and Price Spreads**: As of May 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ore and concentrates was 2.3952 million tons, a decrease of 509,800 tons from April, a decline of 17.55% but a year - on - year increase of 6.59% As of the latest data, the refined - scrap copper price spread (tax - included) was 1,130.31 yuan/ton, an increase of 107.31 yuan/ton from last week [34] - **Global Production and Inventories**: As of April 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1.909 million tons, a decrease of 59,000 tons from March, a decline of 3% The global capacity utilization rate was 79.2%, unchanged from March The inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 489,000 tons, an increase of 49,000 tons from the previous period [39] 4. Industry Situation - **Supply - Refined Copper Production**: As of June 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.302 million tons, an increase of 48,000 tons from May, an increase of 3.83% and a year - on - year increase of 15.43% As of April 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper was 2.365 million tons, a decrease of 55,000 tons from March, a decline of 2.27% The global capacity utilization rate was 82.3%, an increase of 0.3% from March [42] - **Supply - Refined Copper Imports**: As of May 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 292,694.313 tons, a decrease of 7,487.63 tons from April, a decline of 2.49% and a year - on - year decline of 15.64% As of the latest data, the import profit and loss was - 251.54 yuan/ton, a decrease of 560.09 yuan/ton from last week [49][50] - **Supply - Social Inventories**: As of the latest data, the LME total inventory increased by 12,525 tons from last week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 5,360 tons from last week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts increased by 14,932 tons from last week The total social inventory was 144,400 tons, an increase of 2,400 tons from last week [53] 5. Downstream and Application - **Demand - Copper Product Output and Imports**: As of June 2025, the monthly output of copper products was 2.2145 million tons, an increase of 118,500 tons from May, an increase of 5.65% The monthly import volume of copper products was 460,000 tons, an increase of 30,000 tons from May, an increase of 6.98% and a year - on - year increase of 4.55% [58] - **Application - Power Grid Investment and Appliance Production**: As of May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of power and grid investment completion were 0.39% and 19.8% respectively As of June 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs were 16.5%, 3%, 4.8%, 18.9%, and - 11.1% respectively [64] - **Application - Real Estate and Integrated Circuit Production**: As of June 2025, the cumulative real estate development investment completion was 4.665756 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decline of 11.2% and a month - on - month increase of 28.77% The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 239,469,611,000 pieces, a year - on - year increase of 8.7% and a month - on - month increase of 23.78% [70] 6. Overall Situation - **Global Supply - Demand**: According to ICSG statistics, as of April 2025, the global refined copper supply had a monthly shortage of 50,000 tons According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance as of April 2025 was 193,600 tons [75]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The Shanghai copper market may face pressure due to converging supply and weakening demand. The fundamentals of Shanghai copper may be in a situation of weak supply and demand. It is recommended to trade with a light - position and a weak - oscillation strategy, paying attention to controlling the rhythm and trading risks [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Weekly Key Points Summary - **Market Performance**: The weekly line of the main Shanghai copper contract first rose and then fell, with a weekly change of - 0.03% and an amplitude of 1.36%. The closing price of the main contract this week was 77,990 yuan/ton [4]. - **International Situation**: The Fed maintained interest rates unchanged for the fourth consecutive time in June. The dot - plot shows two rate cuts this year, and Powell emphasized uncertainty, suggesting a wait - and - see approach [4]. - **Domestic Situation**: In May, the national industrial added value above designated size increased by 5.8% year - on - year, and social consumer goods retail sales increased by 6.4% [4]. - **Fundamentals**: The TC cost of copper concentrates remains low, and domestic port inventories are rapidly declining. Supply may gradually tighten. Some smelters may have passive production cuts and maintenance plans due to the tight supply of copper concentrates, scrap copper, and blister copper. The growth rate of refined copper supply will slow down. Demand is affected by the off - season, with weakening orders and a seasonal decline in the operating rate of some downstream copper processing enterprises. The spot market has cautious buying sentiment, and social inventories have slightly accumulated [4]. 3.2 Spot and Futures Market - **Futures Contracts**: As of June 20, 2025, the basis of the main Shanghai copper contract was 410 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 535 yuan/ton. The price of the main contract was 77,990 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 20 yuan/ton, and the position was 166,882 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 26,965 lots [9]. - **Spot Prices**: As of June 20, 2025, the average spot price of 1 electrolytic copper was 78,400 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 315 yuan/ton [15]. - **Inter - period Contracts**: As of June 20, 2025, the inter - month spread of the main Shanghai copper contract was 420 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 130 yuan/ton [15]. - **Premiums and Positions**: As of the latest data this week, the CIF average premium of Shanghai electrolytic copper was 62 US dollars/ton, unchanged from last week. The net long position of the top 20 in Shanghai copper was 8,386 lots, an increase of 304 lots from last week [21]. - **Options Market**: As of June 20, 2025, the short - term implied volatility of the at - the - money option contract of the main Shanghai copper contract fell below the 50th percentile of historical volatility. As of this week, the put - call ratio of Shanghai copper options was 0.9134, a decrease of 0.0193 from last week [26]. 3.3 Industrial Situation 3.3.1 Upstream - **Mining Prices and Processing Fees**: The price of domestic copper concentrates in the main mining areas (Jiangxi) was 68,750 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 220 yuan/ton. The processing fee for southern blister copper was 800 yuan/ton, unchanged from last week [29]. - **Imports**: In April 2025, the monthly import volume of copper ores and concentrates was 2.9244 million tons, an increase of 531,300 tons from March, a growth rate of 22.2% and a year - on - year growth rate of 25.6%. The含税 refined - scrap copper price difference was 1,288.78 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 357.69 yuan/ton [34]. - **Production and Inventory**: In March 2025, the global monthly production of copper concentrates was 1,969 thousand tons, an increase of 202 thousand tons from February, a growth rate of 11.43%. The global capacity utilization rate was 79.3%, an increase of 0.3% from February. The inventory of copper concentrates in seven domestic ports was 632,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 92,000 tons [39]. 3.3.2 Supply - side - **Production**: In May 2025, the monthly production of refined copper in China was 1.254 million tons, unchanged from April, with a year - on - year growth rate of 15.15%. In March 2025, the global monthly production of refined copper (primary + recycled) was 2,426 thousand tons, an increase of 234 thousand tons from February, a growth rate of 10.68%. The capacity utilization rate was 82.2%, a decrease of 0.6% from February [41]. - **Imports**: In May 2025, the monthly import volume of refined copper was 292,694.313 tons, a decrease of 7,487.63 tons from April, a decline rate of 2.49% and a year - on - year decline rate of 15.64%. The import profit and loss was - 933.14 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 531.43 yuan/ton [49][50]. - **Inventory**: As of the latest data this week, the LME total inventory decreased by 4,000 tons week - on - week, the COMEX total inventory increased by 2,588 tons week - on - week, and the SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 2,387 tons week - on - week. The total social inventory was 149,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 6,900 tons [55]. 3.3.3 Downstream and Application - **Copper Products**: In May 2025, the monthly production of copper products was 2.096 million tons, an increase of 15,000 tons from April, a growth rate of 0.72%. The monthly import volume of copper products was 430,000 tons, a decrease of 10,000 tons from April, a decline rate of 2.27% and a year - on - year decline rate of 15.69% [61]. - **Power and Appliances**: As of April 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rates of power and grid investment completion were 1.6% and 14.59% respectively. In May 2025, the year - on - year growth rates of monthly production of washing machines, air conditioners, refrigerators, freezers, and color TVs were 1.6%, 1.6%, - 3.3%, 0.6%, and - 9.2% respectively [67]. - **Real Estate and Integrated Circuits**: As of May 2025, the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of real estate development investment completion was - 10.7%, and the month - on - month growth rate was 30.67%. The cumulative production of integrated circuits was 193,460 million pieces, with a year - on - year growth rate of 6.8% and a month - on - month growth rate of 28.21% [73]. 3.3.4 Overall Situation - **Global Supply and Demand**: According to ICSG statistics, in March 2025, the global supply - demand balance was in a state of oversupply, with a monthly value of 17 thousand tons. According to WBMS statistics, the cumulative global supply - demand balance value was 20,500 tons [76].