| Millio 国投期货 | | 能源日报 | | --- | --- | --- | | 操作评级 | | 2025年10月09日 | | 原油 | ☆☆☆ | 高明宇 首席分析师 | | 燃料油 | ななな | F0302201 Z0012038 | | 低硫燃料油 文文文 | | 李海群 中级分析师 | | 沥青 | ☆☆☆ | F03107558 Z0021515 | | 液化石油气 ★☆☆ | | | | | | 王盈敏 中级分析师 | | | | F3066912 Z0016785 | | | | 010-58747784 | | | | gtaxinstitute@essence.com.cn | 【原油】 不可作为投资依据,转载请注明出处 1 原油 十一假期前后国际油价总体回落,本周处于OPEC+最终未如预期般大幅增产后的反弹修复期,外盘原油日内延续 反弹，SC11合约节后首日补跌1.98%。EIA报告显示上周美国原油库存超预期增加371.5万桶，但近四周成品油表 需同比增1.7%相对强劲对油价构成支撑。尽管俄乌地缘犹动仍存，但供需宽松压力仍是后续市场的交易主题, 我们此前提出的SC高位空单 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report maintains the view in the monthly report, regarding the short - term oil price as a rebound and repair. There are two main reasons: Saudi Arabia's pressure on OPEC+ has taken effect, and Kazakhstan may consider fulfilling its production cut obligations, reducing the need for OPEC+ to further accelerate production increases; tariff negotiations have made progress, and the short - term risk of further deterioration has decreased, improving market risk appetite. The main risk comes from the US - Iran peace talks. If the Trump administration makes further concessions to lower oil prices, there is a risk of further price decline. The support level for WTI crude oil is the previous low of $55, and the resistance level is between $66 - $67 [2][76]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Low - level Volatility**: After the holiday, oil prices oscillated at a low level with high volatility. Tariff negotiation progress improved the macro - sentiment, but OPEC+ production increases limited the bullish sentiment. As of May 8, WTI crude futures closed at $60.28 per barrel, and Brent crude closed at $63.12 per barrel. As of May 9, SC crude futures closed at 472.40 yuan per barrel [8]. - **Significant Decline in Calendar Spreads**: With the acceleration of OPEC+ production increases, calendar spreads declined significantly [9]. - **Low Net Long Positions of Funds**: As of the week ending April 29, WTI fund net long positions were 140,031 lots, a week - on - week increase of 8,296 lots; Brent fund net long positions were 106,722 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 6,080 lots. In the refined oil market, gasoline net long positions increased by 5,548 lots, diesel by 2,726 lots, and heating oil by 1,177 lots [14]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply - **OPEC+**: After the May 3 OPEC+ meeting, member countries agreed to accelerate production increases by 411,000 barrels per day in June, and may do the same in July. If quota compliance does not improve, OPEC+ plans to gradually lift the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production cut by October. The reasons for continuous over - expected production increases may include internal discipline rectification, market share competition, and geopolitical games [18]. - **United States**: US crude oil production is at a high level, but the ability to increase production is limited due to the limited change in the number of rigs, and producers' willingness to expand production is also limited under low oil prices. As of the week ending May 2, 2025, US weekly crude oil production was 13.367 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 98,000 barrels per day, and the average weekly production in the past four weeks was 13.44 million barrels per day [28]. 3.3 Crude Oil Demand - **United States**: The US travel demand is entering a relatively peak season, which supports the demand for gasoline and jet fuel. As of the week ending May 2, US gasoline demand was 8.717 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 381,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 barrels per day; distillate demand was 3.521 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 29,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 32,000 barrels per day; jet fuel demand was 2.022 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 474,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 532,000 barrels per day. The total petroleum product demand was 19.872 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 718,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year decrease of 418,000 barrels per day. The crack spread and refinery profit have slightly recovered, and refinery operations are gradually picking up [31][39][43]. - **China**: China's crude oil processing volume and refined oil production continue to decline year - on - year. In March 2025, the monthly crude oil processing volume was 63.058 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 718,000 tons. In terms of refined oil production, gasoline production in March was 13.22 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.071 million tons; diesel production was 16.805 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.884 million tons; kerosene production was 4.898 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 196,000 tons. In April 2025, China's crude oil imports were 48.061 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.341 million tons; refined oil imports were 3.566 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.104 million tons. Shandong local refineries' operations have shown a slow recovery trend, but they are still at a low level in the past five years [48][51][55]. 3.4 Crude Oil Inventory - **United States**: US crude oil inventory is at a relatively low level compared to previous years. As of the week ending May 2, US crude oil inventory (excluding SPR) was 438.376 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.032 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 21.152 million barrels. The SPR inventory was 399.122 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 580,000 barrels. Cushing's weekly crude oil inventory was 24.96 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 740,000 barrels. In the refined oil market, distillate and jet fuel inventories decreased slightly, and the refined oil inventory has dropped to a moderately low level [59][61][64]. - **OECD**: In March 2025, global crude oil supply was 103.74 million barrels per day, demand was 103.31 million barrels per day, with a supply - demand difference of 430,000 barrels per day. The demand declined in March, and the overall supply - demand was relatively loose. OECD slightly increased its inventory, and the overall inventory level was at a historically low position, with the inventory at the end of March at 2.718 billion barrels, a month - on - month increase of 4 million barrels [72]. 3.5 Summary and Outlook The report maintains the view in the monthly report, regarding the short - term oil price as a rebound and repair. There are two main reasons: Saudi Arabia's pressure on OPEC+ has taken effect, and Kazakhstan may consider fulfilling its production cut obligations, reducing the need for OPEC+ to further accelerate production increases; tariff negotiations have made progress, and the short - term risk of further deterioration has decreased, improving market risk appetite. The main risk comes from the US - Iran peace talks. If the Trump administration makes further concessions to lower oil prices, there is a risk of further price decline. The support level for WTI crude oil is the previous low of $55, and the resistance level is between $66 - $67 [76].