Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude oil: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Fuel oil: Not clearly defined in a comparable way, represented by "ななな" - Low - sulfur fuel oil: Not clearly defined in a comparable way, represented by "文文文" - Asphalt: ★★★, indicating a clearer long - term trend with a relatively appropriate investment opportunity currently [1] - Liquefied petroleum gas: ★☆☆, suggesting a bullish/bearish bias with a driving force for price movement but limited operability on the trading floor [1] Report's Core View - Overall, the energy market is affected by multiple factors including supply - demand dynamics, geopolitical risks, and inventory changes. Different energy products have their own unique supply - demand situations and price trends [2][3][4][5] Summary by Related Catalogs Crude Oil - International oil prices declined around the National Day holiday and are in a rebound - repair period after OPEC+ did not significantly increase production as expected. The SC11 contract dropped 1.98% on the first trading day after the holiday. US crude oil inventories increased by 3715000 barrels last week, but the 1.7% year - on - year increase in refined oil apparent demand in the past four weeks supported oil prices. Supply - demand loosening pressure is the main trading theme, and the previously proposed strategy of combining short positions in SC at high levels with out - of - the - money call options should be opportunistically and temporarily closed for profit [2] Fuel Oil & Low - sulfur Fuel Oil - During the National Day holiday, overseas crude - related products were weak, and the fuel oil market opened lower following the cost side. High - sulfur fuel oil was relatively resistant to decline due to geopolitical risks, as Russian refineries were frequently attacked by drones and seasonal maintenance was approaching, which may restrict supply. In the medium term, supply pressure may emerge under OPEC+ continuous production increase. Low - sulfur fuel oil has sufficient overseas supply, with continuous inflow of Western arbitrage goods. The RFCC unit of a Nigerian refinery is not restored, and there are continuous tenders. The demand for marine fuel bunkering is also sluggish, and the supply - demand loosening pressure remains unchanged [3] Asphalt - The latest inventory shows a slight increase in refinery inventory and a significant decline in social inventory, with overall commercial inventory decreasing compared to before the holiday. The national production plan for October increased by 350000 tons year - on - year and decreased slightly by 4000 tons month - on - month. The market has priced in the supply pressure in October. There is still construction rush demand in the north, while demand in the south is temporarily suppressed by typhoon and rainfall. Supply - demand remains in a tight balance, and asphalt is expected to be less pressured under the weakening cost side, with upward elasticity in cracking [4] Liquefied Petroleum Gas - Overseas crude oil prices dropped during the holiday, and the Saudi CP price in October was much lower than expected, with propane down by 25 dollars per ton and butane down by 15 dollars per ton. Affected by the decline in import costs, market sentiment is cautious. Downstream enterprises' procurement after the holiday is mainly for刚需. Attention should be paid to the improvement degree of combustion demand after the temperature drops. In the short term, LPG is under pressure due to lack of positive support [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoint of the Report The report maintains the view in the monthly report, regarding the short - term oil price as a rebound and repair. There are two main reasons: Saudi Arabia's pressure on OPEC+ has taken effect, and Kazakhstan may consider fulfilling its production cut obligations, reducing the need for OPEC+ to further accelerate production increases; tariff negotiations have made progress, and the short - term risk of further deterioration has decreased, improving market risk appetite. The main risk comes from the US - Iran peace talks. If the Trump administration makes further concessions to lower oil prices, there is a risk of further price decline. The support level for WTI crude oil is the previous low of $55, and the resistance level is between $66 - $67 [2][76]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Review - **Low - level Volatility**: After the holiday, oil prices oscillated at a low level with high volatility. Tariff negotiation progress improved the macro - sentiment, but OPEC+ production increases limited the bullish sentiment. As of May 8, WTI crude futures closed at $60.28 per barrel, and Brent crude closed at $63.12 per barrel. As of May 9, SC crude futures closed at 472.40 yuan per barrel [8]. - **Significant Decline in Calendar Spreads**: With the acceleration of OPEC+ production increases, calendar spreads declined significantly [9]. - **Low Net Long Positions of Funds**: As of the week ending April 29, WTI fund net long positions were 140,031 lots, a week - on - week increase of 8,296 lots; Brent fund net long positions were 106,722 lots, a week - on - week decrease of 6,080 lots. In the refined oil market, gasoline net long positions increased by 5,548 lots, diesel by 2,726 lots, and heating oil by 1,177 lots [14]. 3.2 Crude Oil Supply - **OPEC+**: After the May 3 OPEC+ meeting, member countries agreed to accelerate production increases by 411,000 barrels per day in June, and may do the same in July. If quota compliance does not improve, OPEC+ plans to gradually lift the 2.2 million barrels per day voluntary production cut by October. The reasons for continuous over - expected production increases may include internal discipline rectification, market share competition, and geopolitical games [18]. - **United States**: US crude oil production is at a high level, but the ability to increase production is limited due to the limited change in the number of rigs, and producers' willingness to expand production is also limited under low oil prices. As of the week ending May 2, 2025, US weekly crude oil production was 13.367 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 98,000 barrels per day, and the average weekly production in the past four weeks was 13.44 million barrels per day [28]. 3.3 Crude Oil Demand - **United States**: The US travel demand is entering a relatively peak season, which supports the demand for gasoline and jet fuel. As of the week ending May 2, US gasoline demand was 8.717 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 381,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 barrels per day; distillate demand was 3.521 million barrels per day, a week - on - week decrease of 29,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 32,000 barrels per day; jet fuel demand was 2.022 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 474,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year increase of 532,000 barrels per day. The total petroleum product demand was 19.872 million barrels per day, a week - on - week increase of 718,000 barrels per day and a year - on - year decrease of 418,000 barrels per day. The crack spread and refinery profit have slightly recovered, and refinery operations are gradually picking up [31][39][43]. - **China**: China's crude oil processing volume and refined oil production continue to decline year - on - year. In March 2025, the monthly crude oil processing volume was 63.058 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 718,000 tons. In terms of refined oil production, gasoline production in March was 13.22 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.071 million tons; diesel production was 16.805 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 1.884 million tons; kerosene production was 4.898 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 196,000 tons. In April 2025, China's crude oil imports were 48.061 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 3.341 million tons; refined oil imports were 3.566 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 2.104 million tons. Shandong local refineries' operations have shown a slow recovery trend, but they are still at a low level in the past five years [48][51][55]. 3.4 Crude Oil Inventory - **United States**: US crude oil inventory is at a relatively low level compared to previous years. As of the week ending May 2, US crude oil inventory (excluding SPR) was 438.376 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 2.032 million barrels and a year - on - year decrease of 21.152 million barrels. The SPR inventory was 399.122 million barrels, a week - on - week increase of 580,000 barrels. Cushing's weekly crude oil inventory was 24.96 million barrels, a week - on - week decrease of 740,000 barrels. In the refined oil market, distillate and jet fuel inventories decreased slightly, and the refined oil inventory has dropped to a moderately low level [59][61][64]. - **OECD**: In March 2025, global crude oil supply was 103.74 million barrels per day, demand was 103.31 million barrels per day, with a supply - demand difference of 430,000 barrels per day. The demand declined in March, and the overall supply - demand was relatively loose. OECD slightly increased its inventory, and the overall inventory level was at a historically low position, with the inventory at the end of March at 2.718 billion barrels, a month - on - month increase of 4 million barrels [72]. 3.5 Summary and Outlook The report maintains the view in the monthly report, regarding the short - term oil price as a rebound and repair. There are two main reasons: Saudi Arabia's pressure on OPEC+ has taken effect, and Kazakhstan may consider fulfilling its production cut obligations, reducing the need for OPEC+ to further accelerate production increases; tariff negotiations have made progress, and the short - term risk of further deterioration has decreased, improving market risk appetite. The main risk comes from the US - Iran peace talks. If the Trump administration makes further concessions to lower oil prices, there is a risk of further price decline. The support level for WTI crude oil is the previous low of $55, and the resistance level is between $66 - $67 [76].