Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests short - term range - bound trading for oil prices and medium - term short - side allocation [3] Group 2: Report's Core View - The significant reduction in Saudi Arabia's crude oil allocation to Chinese buyers in September reflects that Chinese state - owned refiners are optimizing their procurement strategies due to Saudi Arabia's high OSP and high domestic inventories. China's refined oil terminal consumption is sluggish, and crude oil procurement cannot deviate from refinery processing volume and refined oil terminal consumption in the long run [2] Group 3: Summary According to Market News and Important Data - On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the September - delivery light crude oil futures price dropped 79 cents to $63.17 per barrel, a 1.24% decline; the October - delivery Brent crude oil futures price on the London market fell 51 cents to $66.12 per barrel, a 0.77% decline. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.83% at 490 yuan per barrel [1] - OPEC raised its forecast for global oil demand next year and lowered its forecast for supply growth from the US and non - OPEC+ producers in its monthly report. In 2026, global oil demand will increase by 1.38 million barrels per day, 100,000 barrels per day higher than the previous forecast. Non - OPEC+ oil supply in 2026 will increase by about 630,000 barrels per day, down from the previous forecast of 730,000 barrels per day. In July, OPEC+ further increased production by 335,000 barrels per day [1] - In the first seven months of 2025, India's oil consumption decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, the second seasonal decline in more than two decades [1] - The EIA lowered its oil price forecast. It expects the average Brent crude oil price in 2025 to be $67.22 per barrel (previously $68.89 per barrel) and in 2026 to be $51.43 per barrel (previously $58.48 per barrel). It expects the average WTI price in 2025 to be $63.58 per barrel (previously $65.22 per barrel) and in 2026 to be $47.77 per barrel (previously $54.82 per barrel) [1] Group 4: Summary According to Strategy - The strategy is short - term range - bound trading for oil prices and medium - term short - side allocation [3] Group 5: Summary According to Risks - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Russia and macro black - swan events; upside risks include the US tightening sanctions on Russia and large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle East conflicts [3]

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No specific industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View The current crude oil market has two major contradictions: China's excessive crude oil imports lead to high inventory as import volume does not match processing volume and refined oil consumption growth; the US's excessive crude oil exports lead to inventory decline as export volume does not match production growth. Overall, there was a global supply surplus and inventory accumulation in the first half of this year, mainly due to the transfer of inventory from OECD countries to China. The market shows a differentiated pattern, with the traditional view of Chinese crude oil inventory as demand and low OECD inventories, which supports oil prices. The trend of stronger prices in the West and weaker in the East remains unchanged, and China's high imports do not reflect real domestic demand [2]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Market News and Important Data - **Crude Oil Futures Prices**: The August - delivery light - sweet crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell 14 cents to $66.38 a barrel, a 0.21% decline; the September - delivery Brent crude oil futures in London fell 19 cents to $68.52 a barrel, a 0.28% decline. The SC crude oil main contract closed unchanged at 517 yuan per barrel [1]. - **Emirates Fuel Inventory**: As of the week ending July 14, the total refined oil inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 19.554 million barrels, a decrease of 1.131 million barrels from the previous week. Light distillate inventory decreased by 736,000 barrels to 7.388 million barrels, medium distillate inventory increased by 287,000 barrels to 2.593 million barrels, and heavy residual fuel oil inventory decreased by 682,000 barrels to 9.573 million barrels [1]. - **National Power Load**: On July 16, 2025, the national maximum power load exceeded 1.5 billion kilowatts for the first time, reaching 1.506 billion kilowatts, an increase of 55 million kilowatts compared to last year's maximum load. The national power load has remained at a high level this week, and the energy supply guarantee work for the peak summer season has entered a critical period [1]. - **Saudi Arabia's Oil Production Report**: Saudi Arabia adopted a new measurement standard to report June's crude oil production to meet quota requirements. Its "market supply" was 9.36 million barrels per day, while actual production was 9.75 million barrels per day. Without adjustment, its production would have exceeded the target by 385,000 barrels per day [1]. - **EIA Report (Week of July 11)**: US crude oil exports increased by 761,000 barrels per day to 3.518 million barrels per day; domestic production decreased by 100,000 barrels to 13.375 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventory (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 3.859 million barrels to 422 million barrels, a 0.91% decline; the four - week average supply of US petroleum products was 20.262 million barrels per day, a 1.1% decrease compared to the same period last year; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventory decreased by 300,000 barrels to 402.7 million barrels, a 0.07% decline; commercial crude oil imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 6.379 million barrels per day, an increase of 366,000 barrels per day compared to the previous week [1]. - **US President's Statement**: US President Trump said the US may strictly implement the trade agreement with Japan and may reach another agreement with India in the future. He hopes the oil price can be lower and thinks $64 per barrel is a good price [1]. Investment Logic The two major contradictions in the crude oil market lead to a differentiated market pattern and support oil prices, with the West - strong and East - weak trend remaining [2]. Strategy Oil prices will be range - bound in the short term and a short - position allocation is recommended in the medium term [3]