石油ETF（561360）跟踪的是油气产业指数（H30198），该指数聚焦于石油和天然气的勘探、开采、生 产及销售等业务环节，选取覆盖产业链上游至下游的相关上市公司证券作为指数样本，以反映油气行业 整体表现，其构成具有较高的行业集中度和周期性特征。 风险提示：提及个股仅用于行业事件分析，不构成任何个股推荐或投资建议。指数等短期涨跌仅供参 考，不代表其未来表现，亦不构成对基金业绩的承诺或保证。观点可能随市场环境变化而调整，不构成 投资建议或承诺。提及基金风险收益特征各不相同，敬请投资者仔细阅读基金法律文件，充分了解产品 要素、风险等级及收益分配原则，选择与自身风险承受能力匹配的产品，谨慎投资。 每日经济新闻 地缘升温推动油价上行，2月25日，石油ETF（561360）涨近3%，资金持续抢筹，近20日净流入超23亿 元，规模超30亿元。 平安证券指出，石油石化行业方面，伊朗地缘局势高度紧张，风险升温推动油价上行。短期内，受伊朗 地缘局势高度紧张及俄乌地缘风险尚存影响，油价或呈现震荡偏强走势。中长期来看，油价锚定基本 面，随着OPEC+增产的推进以及美洲国家油田的开发，基本面过剩格局或将继续演绎，油价仍存在中 枢进 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector, indicating a positive outlook despite geopolitical uncertainties [1]. Core Insights - The oil price is expected to remain supported in the short term due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, with specific focus on Iran and the Russia-Ukraine conflict [6][7]. - The fluorochemical sector is anticipated to maintain high levels of activity due to supply constraints and favorable demand driven by policy support [6][7]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - Geopolitical tensions continue to create uncertainty, with recent developments involving Iran and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict impacting oil prices [6]. - WTI crude futures fell by 3.27% and Brent crude futures by 3.75% during the reporting period [6]. - Domestic oil companies are diversifying their resource sources and integrating upstream and downstream operations to mitigate the impact of volatile oil prices [7]. Fluorochemicals - Supply quotas and favorable demand from policy support are expected to sustain high market activity [6]. - Prices for popular refrigerants R32 and R134a remain stable, with supply constraints leading to a tight market for certain products [6]. - The issuance of HFC production quotas for 2026 shows an increase, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [6]. Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor materials sector is experiencing a positive trend with inventory reduction and improving end-market fundamentals [7]. - The report suggests that the upward cycle in semiconductor materials, combined with domestic substitution, may lead to further price increases [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Outperform" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Insights - Kazakhstan's two major oil fields have halted production, causing supply disruptions that have boosted oil prices. WTI crude futures rose by 3.11% and Brent crude futures increased by 3.16% during the period from January 16 to January 23, 2026 [6]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Europe regarding Greenland, and uncertainties in the Middle East, particularly concerning Iran, continue to pose risks to the oil market [6]. - The supply constraints in the fluorochemical sector, combined with favorable demand driven by policy support, are expected to sustain high levels of market activity [6]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - Kazakhstan's oil fields "Tengiz" and "Korolev" have suspended production due to issues with the power distribution system, potentially lasting 7 to 10 days, which will reduce exports through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) [6]. - The report highlights the need for vigilance regarding the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, with the US increasing military presence while also delaying military actions against Iran [6]. - Domestic oil companies are diversifying their oil and gas sources and investing in offshore resources to reduce dependence on foreign energy [7]. Fluorochemicals - The issuance of HFC production quotas for 2026 has increased by 5,963 tons year-on-year, with specific increases for HFC-134a, HFC-245fa, and HFC-32 [6]. - The demand for refrigerants is expected to grow due to government subsidies and the ongoing recovery in the home appliance and automotive sectors [6]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the production of third-generation refrigerants and upstream fluorite resources [7]. Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor inventory reduction trend is improving, and the basic fundamentals are gradually recovering, indicating potential for further upward movement in the sector [7]. - The report recommends attention to companies involved in semiconductor materials, particularly those benefiting from domestic substitution trends [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. Crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC are all forecasted to experience an oscillatory trend. Geopolitical factors, supply - demand dynamics, and production issues are the main drivers of these price movements [1][2][4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the price center of oil prices moved slightly higher. WTI's new March contract closed up $0.26 to $60.62 per barrel, a 0.43% increase; Brent's March contract closed up $0.32 to $65.24 per barrel, a 0.49% increase; SC2603 closed at 446.5 yuan per barrel, up 5.4 yuan per barrel, a 1.2% increase. Production at two major oilfields in Kazakhstan was suspended, and API data showed an increase in US crude and product inventories. Trump's decision on tariffs and ongoing geopolitical games will keep oil prices oscillating [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contracts on the SHFE closed higher. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is sufficient in January, while downstream demand provides some support. High - sulfur fuel oil may face more supply from Venezuela. The absolute prices of FU and LU will likely follow oil price fluctuations, with FU having higher volatility [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the SHFE closed up 0.45% at 3157 yuan per ton. Social and refinery inventory rates increased, and the plant operating rate rose. Market concerns about raw materials eased slightly, but the Iranian situation still affects prices. The asphalt market is in a game between "weak demand reality" and "strong cost expectations" [2]. - **Polyester**: TA605 and EG2605 closed higher on the previous day, while PX futures closed lower. PX supply is shrinking due to plant maintenance, and TA is expected to follow raw material prices. EG is expected to trade in a low - level oscillation due to ample supply and falling downstream demand [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contracts on the SHFE closed higher. Overseas production is nearing the end of the peak season, tire companies are restocking, and inventories are seasonally increasing. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term [4]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, spot prices in different regions were reported. Domestic supply is at a high - level oscillation, and Iranian supply remains low. Zhejiang Xingxing's shutdown weakened MTO operating loads. Methanol is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, prices and production margins of different polyolefins were reported. In January, there were some temporary shutdowns in upstream plants, and demand recovered in the early part of the month but will weaken as the Spring Festival approaches. Polyolefins are expected to trade at the bottom [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Wednesday, PVC prices in different regions showed different trends. Supply is at a high - level oscillation, domestic demand is slowing, and the 05 contract has a large premium. PVC is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, basis rate, price changes, and historical quantiles of various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, and many others [8]. 3.3 Market News - Trump decided not to implement the planned tariffs on eight European countries after reaching a framework agreement on Greenland with NATO Secretary - General Mark Rutte. Production at two major oilfields in Kazakhstan was suspended due to power distribution and equipment issues, and the suspension may last for seven to ten days [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents line charts showing the historical closing prices of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2022 - 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [13][15][17]. 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - Line charts display the historical basis of main contracts for different products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [29][30][35]. 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - Charts show the historical spreads between different contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09) for products like fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [42][47][50]. 3.4.4 Inter - product Spreads - Charts illustrate the historical spreads between different products, such as crude oil's internal - external spreads, B - W spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [58][60][62]. 3.4.5 Production Profits - Charts present the historical production profits or processing fees for products like LLDPE, PP, PTA, and the cash flow of ethylene - based ethylene glycol [66][68]. 3.5 Team Introduction - The research team includes the deputy director of the research institute Zhong Meiyan, the energy and chemical research director Du Bingqin, the natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and the methanol/propylene/pure benzene PE/PP/PVC analyst Peng Haibo, with their respective backgrounds and achievements introduced [71][72][73]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, fax is 021 - 80212200, customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [76].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty in the Middle East has increased, leading to a short-term strong fluctuation in oil prices. WTI crude futures closed up by 1.02% and Brent oil futures by 1.87% during the week of January 9 to January 16, 2026 [6]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Iran and the U.S., are significant factors affecting oil prices. Iran's oil inventory has reached record levels, equivalent to about 50 days of production, due to Western sanctions [6]. - The fluorochemical sector is expected to maintain high prosperity due to supply quota constraints and favorable demand driven by policy support. The production quota for HFCs in 2026 has increased by 5,963 tons year-on-year [6]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemical - The report highlights the increased uncertainty in the Middle East, which is likely to impact oil prices in the short term. The geopolitical situation, including U.S. sanctions and military movements, is a critical factor [6][7]. - The report notes that domestic oil companies are diversifying their oil sources and integrating upstream and downstream operations to mitigate the impact of volatile international oil prices [7]. Fluorochemical - The fluorochemical sector is experiencing a favorable environment due to supply constraints and policy-driven demand. The production quotas for HFCs have been adjusted, with significant increases in specific categories [6][7]. - The report indicates that the demand for refrigerants is expected to grow, supported by national subsidy policies, with production of household air conditioners projected to increase by 11% year-on-year in January 2026 [6]. Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor materials sector is on an upward cycle, with improving fundamentals and domestic substitution trends. The report suggests that there is potential for further price increases in this sector [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall view of the energy - chemical commodities market is that most varieties are expected to show an oscillatory trend. For crude oil, supply - side concerns are intensifying, which will provide phased support for oil prices. For fuel oil, the short - term absolute prices of FU and LU may follow the oil price fluctuations, and it is recommended to short high - sulfur fuel oil on rallies. For asphalt, the price is expected to stabilize and strengthen. For polyester, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, while ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate widely. For rubber, the price is under pressure from inventory accumulation. For methanol, it is expected to maintain bottom - level oscillations. For polyolefins, they will continue to oscillate at the bottom. For PVC, the price will also maintain bottom - level oscillations [1][2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Crude Oil - WTI February contract closed at $61.15 per barrel, up $1.65 or 2.77%. Brent March contract closed at $65.47 per barrel, up $1.60 or 2.51%. SC2602 closed at 450.4 yuan per barrel, up 12.7 yuan or 2.90%. - The Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal's disruption, along with multiple factors, has halved the loading volume to about 900,000 barrels per day. Kazakhstan has diverted some oil to other routes. - API data shows an increase in US API crude, Cushing crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories last week. - At least 4 Russian oil tankers in the Black Sea were attacked, and supply - side concerns are intensifying, providing phased support for oil prices. The view is oscillatory [1]. Fuel Oil - The main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2603) rose 0.53% to 2,461 yuan per ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2603) rose 1.66% to 3,066 yuan per ton. - The low - sulfur fuel oil market will remain well - supplied in the short term, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market has some support from the recovery of downstream demand. However, the entry of Venezuelan heavy crude may have a negative impact on high - sulfur spreads. - It is recommended to short high - sulfur fuel oil on rallies, and the view is oscillatory [2]. Asphalt - The main contract of asphalt (BU2602) fell 0.66% to 3,140 yuan per ton. - Due to the geopolitical situation in Venezuela, the expectation of tight processing raw materials has strengthened, and the refinery supply has decreased, driving up the price. - The market will be in a game between "weak demand reality" and "strong cost expectation," and the price is expected to stabilize and strengthen. The view is oscillatory [2]. Polyester - TA605 closed at 5,140 yuan per ton, down 0.04%. EG2605 closed at 3,815 yuan per ton, down 1.68%. PX futures contract 603 closed at 7,282 yuan per ton, down 0.36%. - Geopolitical risks have raised the risk premium of crude oil, and there is a game between the downstream negative feedback and the rise in oil prices. The price of polyester is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate widely. The view is oscillatory [2][4]. Rubber - The main contract of natural rubber (RU2605) fell 155 yuan per ton to 15,975 yuan per ton, and the main contract of 20 - number rubber (NR) fell 170 yuan per ton to 12,840 yuan per ton. - In November 2025, the export volume of natural rubber decreased by 14.7% year - on - year and 29.8% month - on - month. - The rubber price rebounded in a general commodity - rising atmosphere, but it is under pressure from inventory accumulation after the low - production season. The view is oscillatory [4]. Methanol - The spot price in Taicang was 2,257 yuan per ton. - The arrival volume in January has decreased significantly, and the MTO device load has also declined. The port will face inventory - removal pressure, and the price is expected to maintain bottom - level oscillations. The view is oscillatory [4]. Polyolefins - The mainstream price of PP in East China was 6,370 - 6,500 yuan per ton, and the profit margins of various production methods were negative. For PE, the prices of different types are given, and the profit margins of different production methods vary. - In January, there are partial temporary shutdowns and maintenance of upstream devices, and the supply is expected to decrease slightly. The demand will recover in early January but decline in late January due to the Spring Festival. - The inventory is expected to rise in late January, and polyolefins will continue to oscillate at the bottom. The view is oscillatory [6]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - The market prices in East, North, and South China have adjusted. - The supply remains at a high - level oscillation, and the domestic demand has slowed down. The market shows a structure of "weak reality and strong expectation." The export tax - refund policy change will increase the upward pressure on the far - month contract and support the near - month contract. The price is expected to maintain bottom - level oscillations. The view is oscillatory [6][7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The data table shows the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes for various energy - chemical varieties on January 13th and 12th, 2026, as well as the latest basis rate's quantile in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - US President Trump's increased verbal attacks on Iran have intensified investors' concerns about US intervention and supply disruptions in Iran, which may threaten Iran's daily oil production of about 3.3 million barrels. Trump also said he would impose a 25% tariff on goods from countries "doing business" with Iran. - The situation in Iran has also exacerbated the bullish sentiment in the market. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal's disruption has halved the loading volume of Kazakh crude to about 900,000 barrels per day, but Kazakhstan has diverted some oil to other routes [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - There are price trend charts for the main contracts of various energy - chemical commodities from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, PP, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European - line container shipping, and paraxylene [12][14][16][18][20][23][24][26][27]. 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - There are basis trend charts for the main contracts of various energy - chemical commodities from 2022 to 2026, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, paraxylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [29][34][35][36][39][40]. 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - There are spread trend charts for different contracts of energy - chemical commodities, including fuel oil (01 - 05, 05 - 09), asphalt (main and sub - main), European - line container shipping index monthly spread, PTA (01 - 05, 05 - 09), ethylene glycol (01 - 05, 05 - 09), PP (01 - 05, 05 - 09), LLDPE (01 - 05, 05 - 09), and natural rubber (01 - 05, 05 - 09) [42][44][47][50][52][54][56]. 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - There are spread and ratio trend charts for different energy - chemical varieties, including crude oil (domestic - international, B - W), fuel oil (high - low sulfur, fuel oil/asphalt), BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spread [58][60][62][64]. 3.4.5 Production Profits - There are profit and processing - fee trend charts for energy - chemical products, including LLDPE production profit, PP production profit, PTA processing fee, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow [66][68]. 3.5 Team Members Introduction - The research team members include the deputy director of the research institute, Zhong Meiyan, with rich experience and many awards; the energy - chemical research director, Du Bingqin, also with many honors and in - depth industry research; the natural rubber/polyester analyst, Di Yilin, who has won some awards and is good at data analysis; and the methanol/propylene/pure benzene PE/PP/PVC analyst, Peng Haibo, with a background in futures - spot trading and a CFA - level 3 qualification [71][72][73][74].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that oil prices have experienced fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and economic data, with expectations for Brent and WTI oil prices in 2026 projected between $55-65 and $52-62 per barrel, respectively [1][4] - In December 2025, the average price of Brent crude oil futures was $61.6 per barrel, a decrease of $2.0 per barrel month-on-month, while WTI crude oil futures averaged $57.9 per barrel, down $1.6 per barrel month-on-month [1][2] - OPEC+ has announced a pause in production increases for the first quarter of 2026, following a complete withdrawal of voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day from April to September 2025 [3][4] Group 2 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts significant oil supply surplus in 2026, with oil demand expected to grow by 86-138 million barrels per day [3] - China's petrochemical industry is facing an overall surplus in refining capacity, with a focus on optimizing supply-side measures and controlling new refining capacity [4] - The geopolitical landscape, including uncertainties surrounding U.S.-Iran relations and U.S. tariffs, is expected to impact the oil market significantly [4]

Core Viewpoint - December oil prices experienced fluctuations, with Brent crude averaging $61.6 per barrel, down $2.0 from the previous month, and WTI averaging $57.9 per barrel, down $1.6 [2] Supply Side - OPEC+ plans to fully exit the voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day from April to September 2025, and on September 7, 2025, it was decided to lift the voluntary production cut agreement of 1.66 million barrels per day reached in April 2023 within 12 months [2] - OPEC+ will increase production by 137,000 barrels per day from October to December 2025, but decided to suspend the production increase plan for the first quarter of 2026 due to seasonal reasons during the meeting on November 30 [2] Demand Side - Major international energy agencies project an increase in global crude oil demand of 830,000 to 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, and an increase of 860,000 to 1.38 million barrels per day in 2026 [3] - According to OPEC, IEA, and EIA reports, crude oil demand for 2025 is estimated at 105.14, 103.85, and 103.94 million barrels per day, reflecting increases of 130, 83, and 114 thousand barrels per day compared to 2024 [3] Industry Outlook - The petrochemical industry in China is facing an overall surplus in refining capacity, with a focus on optimizing supply-side measures as outlined in the "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Petrochemical Industry (2025-2026)" released by seven ministries in September 2025 [4] - The plan emphasizes strict control over new refining capacity and a scientific approach to the timing of new ethylene and paraxylene capacity releases [4] - The expected price range for Brent crude in 2026 is projected to be between $55 and $65 per barrel, while WTI is expected to be between $52 and $62 per barrel [4] - Recommended stocks include China National Offshore Oil Corporation (600938), China Petroleum (601857), Satellite Chemical (002648), and CNOOC Development (600968) [4]

Core Insights - In December 2025, the average price of Brent crude oil futures was $61.6 per barrel, a decrease of $2.0 per barrel month-on-month, with a month-end price of $60.9 per barrel. WTI crude oil futures averaged $57.9 per barrel, down $1.6 per barrel month-on-month, closing at $57.4 per barrel [1] - OPEC+ plans to completely exit a voluntary production cut of 2.2 million barrels per day from April to September 2025, and on September 7, 2025, it was decided to lift the voluntary production cut agreement of 1.66 million barrels per day reached in April 2023 within 12 months [1] Supply Side - OPEC+ announced a pause in production increases for the first quarter of 2026 due to seasonal reasons, despite plans to increase production by 137,000 barrels per day from October to December 2025 [1] - The IEA indicated that there would be a significant oversupply in the oil market next year, contributing to price fluctuations [1] Demand Side - Major international energy agencies project an increase in global oil demand of 830,000 to 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, with demand estimates from OPEC, IEA, and EIA for 2025 being 105.14, 103.85, and 103.94 million barrels per day respectively, reflecting increases of 130, 83, and 114 thousand barrels per day compared to 2024 [2] - For 2026, oil demand is expected to grow by 860,000 to 1.38 million barrels per day, with estimates of 106.52, 104.71, and 105.17 million barrels per day from the same agencies [2] Industry Outlook - The Chinese petrochemical industry is facing an overall surplus in refining capacity, with a focus on optimizing supply-side dynamics through strict control of new refining capacity and a scientific approach to the release of new ethylene and paraxylene capacities [3] - The expected price range for Brent crude oil in 2026 is projected to be between $55 and $65 per barrel, while WTI crude oil is expected to range from $52 to $62 per barrel, influenced by high fiscal balance oil price costs from OPEC+ and elevated new well costs in U.S. shale oil [3] - Recommended stocks include China National Offshore Oil Corporation, China Petroleum, Satellite Chemical, and CNOOC Development [3]

Group 1 - The recent capture of Venezuelan President Maduro has led to a spike in oil prices, with WTI crude reaching $57.73 per gallon and Brent crude hitting $61.24 per gallon before declining later in the day [2] - Venezuela's oil exports have plummeted to nearly zero due to U.S. sanctions, with the state oil company reducing production and shutting down oil fields [2] - The total amount of Venezuelan oil stranded at sea has exceeded 17 million barrels, with daily production dropping from approximately 1.1 million barrels in November to about 500,000 barrels in December [2] Group 2 - Venezuela holds the world's largest proven oil reserves, estimated at over 300 billion barrels, which is nearly one-fifth of the global total [3] - The geopolitical situation in Venezuela is expected to create volatility in oil prices, with short-term price increases anticipated, but long-term pressures due to global economic weakness and oversupply [3] - The United Nations Security Council is convening an emergency meeting regarding U.S. military actions in Venezuela, reflecting the international concern over the escalating situation [3] Group 3 - The change in Venezuela's regime could significantly impact oil prices, but the underlying supply-demand imbalance remains a critical factor [4] - Despite Venezuela's reduced production, its role as a key supplier of heavy crude oil means that disruptions can elevate market risk perceptions [4] - If a pro-U.S. government is established in Venezuela, it could lead to a potential increase in oil exports by 3 million barrels per day, which may limit long-term price increases [4] Group 4 - The crisis in Venezuela is likely to trigger a chain reaction in the chemical industry, particularly affecting the supply of asphalt and methanol, which are critical for various downstream applications [5] - The interruption of heavy crude oil supplies from Venezuela is expected to lead to a shortage of asphalt, driving up prices and impacting road construction [5] - The ongoing conflict and logistical uncertainties are anticipated to further constrain methanol supplies to China, exacerbating the overall market tightness [5]