2025年9月七部委联合发布《石化化工行业稳增长工作方案(2025-2026年)》，我国炼油行业产能整体过 剩，老旧装置产能庞大，老旧装置以主营炼厂居多，《方案》指出石化领域严格执行新建炼油项目产能 减量置换要求，严控新增炼油产能，科学调控乙烯、对二甲苯新增产能投放节奏，叠加"反内卷"政策信 号明确的推动，预计炼油炼化行业供给侧将得到有力优化。此外，全球外部环境急剧变化，同时俄乌、 美伊以及美国"对等关税"政策均存在较大不确定性，但考虑到OPEC+较高的财政平衡油价成本，以及 美国页岩油较高的新井成本，预计2026年布伦特油价中枢在55-65美元/桶，2026年WTI油价中枢在52-62 美元/桶。相关标的： 重点推荐【中国海油（600938）】、【中国石油（601857）】、【卫星化学（002648）】、【海油发展 （600968）】 风险提示： 2025年12月布伦特原油期货均价为61.6美元/桶，环比下跌2.0美元/桶，月末收于60.9美元/桶；WTI原油 期货均价57.9美元/桶，环比下跌1.6美元/桶，月末收于57.4美元/桶。12月上旬，俄罗斯友谊输油管道遭 袭击，俄乌和平计划陷入僵局，加之美联储 ...

12月油价回顾： 来源：中国能源网 国信证券近日发布油气行业2025年12月月报：2025年12月布伦特原油期货均价为61.6美元/桶，环比下 跌2.0美元/桶，月末收于60.9美元/桶；WTI原油期货均价57.9美元/桶，环比下跌1.6美元/桶，月末收于 57.4美元/桶。OPEC+在2025年4月-9月将220万桶/日自愿减产完全退出，并在2025年9月7日OPEC+部长 级会议决定在12个月内提前解除2023年4月达成的166万桶/日自愿减产协议，2025年10月-12月分别增产 13.7万桶/日，但11月30日的OPEC+会议中，由于季节性原因，OPEC+决定暂停2026年第一季度的增产 计划。 以下为研究报告摘要： 核心观点 重点推荐【中国海油】、【中国石油】、【卫星化学】、【海油发展】 风险提示： 原材料价格波动；产品价格波动；下游需求不及预期等。(国信证券杨林,薛聪,董丙旭) 2025年12月布伦特原油期货均价为61.6美元/桶，环比下跌2.0美元/桶，月末收于60.9美元/桶；WTI原油 期货均价57.9美元/桶，环比下跌1.6美元/桶，月末收于57.4美元/桶。12月上旬，俄罗斯友谊输油管道 ...

原油危机可能引发化工产业的连锁反应，广发期货表示，马瑞原油（Merey）是委内瑞拉核心出口原油 品种，属典型高硫超重质原油，沥青收率达60%附近，适配重质燃料油与沥青生产，是沥青型炼厂的重 要原料。委内瑞拉其出口的重质原油也是中国等国炼厂生产沥青的核心原料，短期供应中断将直接引发 沥青原料短缺，推高沥青价格，并对道路建设等下游行业造成显著冲击。此外，2025年中国自委内瑞拉 进口的甲醇约占进口总量的7%，该国与特立尼达和多巴哥的天然气合作中断已间接制约了区域甲醇产 能的释放；当前美委冲突升级进一步加剧了出口物流的不确定性，预计后续对华甲醇供应将继续收缩。 叠加同期伊朗因限气导致的装置停车，这一局面强化了市场对甲醇进口减量的整体预期。从更广泛的基 础化工领域看，原油价格上涨会通过石脑油、乙烯等基础原料向成本端传导，逐步推升PX等中间环节 价格，并最终影响PTA、涤纶长丝、塑料、橡胶等下游产品的生产与定价。与此同时，港口运作瘫痪与 航运封锁导致化工品运输受阻，运费与保险费用大幅上涨，进一步加剧了全市场供应紧张的格局。 由于委内瑞拉总统马杜罗被俘，原油市场本周一出现高走，今日早间美原油一度上涨0.5%，最高触及 5 ...

原油日报 | 2025-12-19 CPC3号SPM恢复推迟，支撑布伦特价差结构 市场要闻与重要数据 1、 纽约商品交易所2026年1月交货的轻质原油期货价格上涨21美分，收于每桶56.15美元，涨幅为0.38%；2月交货 的伦敦布伦特原油期货价格上涨14美分，收于每桶59.82美元，涨幅为0.23%。SC原油主力合约收涨0.07%，报429 元/桶。（来源：Bloomberg） 2、 石油巨头雪佛龙正准备从委内瑞拉出口100万桶原油，此举发生在特朗普前一天指责该国利用石油收入资助毒 品走私和恐怖主义之后。据油轮追踪数据显示，持有美国许可证在委内瑞拉钻探和出口石油的雪佛龙已完成向 "Searuby"号油轮装货，并正在向"Minerva Astra"号油轮装载另一批货物。雪佛龙的船只不受美国制裁限制，预计将 顺利启航。明年1月还将有更多委内瑞拉原油运往美国，此前雪佛龙已售出至少10批货物。（来源：Bloomberg） 3、 本周，由于石油制裁、地区紧张局势和通货膨胀加剧等多重挑战困扰着伊朗经济，伊朗货币里亚尔兑美元汇 率跌至历史新低。据Bonbast网站以及德黑兰三家外汇兑换商的社交账户显示，周三晚间，在德黑兰 ...

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 12 月 19 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周四油价小幅反弹，其中 WTI 1 月合约收盘上涨 0.21 美元至 56.15 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 0.38%。布伦特 2 月合约收盘上涨 0.14 美元至 59.82 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 0.23%。SC2602 以 428.6 元/桶收盘，上涨 0.3 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅为 0.07%。美国总统特朗普称，委内瑞拉抢走了"属于美 | | | | 国的"石油和土地，美国得夺回这一切。海外机构表示，封锁油 | | | | 轮导致委内瑞拉 60 万桶/日的石油出口面临风险。根据公司人士、 | | | 原油 | 贸易商以及航运数据，委内瑞拉国家石油公司(PDVSA)在因网络 | 震荡 | | | 攻击暂停码头作业后恢复原油和燃料的船货装载，但由于美国威 | | | | 胁将依据制裁对油轮进行封锁，多数出口仍为搁置状态。委内瑞 | | | | 拉最大炼油厂阿穆艾炼油厂，在遭遇停电事故后已重新启动生产。 | ...

行业 原油日报 日期 2025 年 12 月 19 日 021-60635738 lijie@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3031215 021-60635737 renjunchi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3037892 028-8663 0631 penghaozhou@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3065843 021-60635740 pengjinglin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3075681 021-60635570 liuyouran@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03094925 021-60635727 fengzeren@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03134307 能源化工研究团队 研究员：李捷,CFA（原油沥青） 研究员：任俊弛（PTA、MEG） 研究员：彭浩洲（工业硅碳市场） 研究员：彭婧霖（聚烯烃） 研究员：刘悠然（纸浆） 研究员：冯泽仁（玻璃纯碱） 请阅读正文后的声明 每日报告 一、行情回顾与操作建议 | ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of the energy - chemical commodities market is weak, with most varieties showing an oscillating trend. Crude oil prices continue to decline due to increased expected global supply surplus and geopolitical factors; fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC are all expected to maintain low - level oscillations [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Tuesday, oil prices dropped. WTI January contract closed down $0.63 to $58.25/barrel, a 1.07% decline; Brent February contract closed down $0.55 to $61.94/barrel, a 0.88% decline; SC2601 closed at 443.4 yuan/barrel, down 5.9 yuan/barrel, a 1.31% decline. EIA raised the forecast of US oil production in 2025 by 20,000 barrels per day, expecting a year - on - year increase of 380,000 barrels per day to an average of 13.61 million barrels per day, a record high. In 2026, the forecast was lowered by 50,000 barrels per day, expecting a year - on - year decrease of 80,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day. The market is expected to be in a state of oscillation [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Tuesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2601 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 2.34% at 2,418 yuan/ton; the main low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2602 closed down 1.7% at 3,014 yuan/ton. The Asian low - sulfur fuel oil market is under pressure due to factors such as replenishment of blending raw materials, increased inflow of arbitrage goods, and weak downstream demand. The Asian high - sulfur fuel oil market is also under pressure due to sufficient arrival of arbitrage vessels and high inventories at ports. It is expected to oscillate [3]. - **Asphalt**: On Tuesday, the main asphalt contract BU2602 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 0.41% at 2,943 yuan/ton. Refinery winter storage policies are gradually being implemented. It is estimated that the winter storage price will likely fall to a relatively low level in the past five years, between 2,800 - 2,900 yuan/ton. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level [3]. - **Polyester**: TA601 closed at 4,644 yuan/ton, down 1.07%; EG2601 closed at 3,691 yuan/ton, down 0.27%. PX futures main contract 601 closed at 6,780 yuan/ton, down 1.42%. The polyester market is expected to oscillate due to factors such as weak downstream demand and cost pressure [3]. - **Rubber**: On Tuesday, the main Shanghai rubber contract RU2601 fell 80 yuan/ton to 14,985 yuan/ton, NR main contract rose 15 yuan/ton to 12,080 yuan/ton, and butadiene rubber BR main contract fell 65 yuan/ton to 10,450 yuan/ton. Due to improved weather in overseas producing areas, falling raw material prices, and insufficient demand support, the futures price is under pressure and expected to oscillate [4]. - **Methanol**: On Tuesday, the Taicang spot price was 2,075 yuan/ton. Iranian device shutdowns will lead to a decline in arrivals from mid - December to January. Port inventories are expected to enter a destocking phase from mid - December this year to early January next year, but the significant destocking time may be postponed. Methanol prices are expected to maintain bottom - level oscillations [5]. - **Polyolefins**: On Tuesday, the mainstream price of East China drawn wire was 6,190 - 6,450 yuan/ton. Supply will remain high, while downstream orders and starts will weaken marginally. Polyolefins are expected to gradually shift to a situation of strong supply and weak demand, but due to low valuations, they are expected to oscillate at the bottom [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Tuesday, the price of the East China PVC market was adjusted downward. Supply is expected to decline slightly this week, and domestic real - estate construction will gradually slow down, leading to a decline in the start - up rate of pipes and profiles. The PVC price is expected to oscillate at the bottom [6]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data for multiple energy - chemical varieties on December 10, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rates, price changes, and the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data for varieties such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, etc. [7]. 3.3 Market News - EIA stated in its monthly short - term energy outlook report that the expected global supply surplus is increasing. US oil production in 2025 is expected to reach a record high, with an upward adjustment of 20,000 barrels per day, a year - on - year increase of 380,000 barrels per day to an average of 13.61 million barrels per day. In 2026, it is expected to decline by 80,000 barrels per day to 13.53 million barrels per day [9]. - After talks in London, Ukrainian President Zelensky will share a revised peace plan with the US. The G7 and the EU are discussing replacing the price cap on Russian oil exports with a comprehensive shipping service ban [9]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: The report presents the closing price charts of the main contracts of multiple energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, polypropylene, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - grade rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European line container shipping, and paraxylene [11][12][13][14][17][19][21][24][25][27]. - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis charts of multiple energy - chemical varieties from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, paraxylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [28][29][34][37][38][39]. - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report provides the spread charts of multiple energy - chemical varieties, including fuel oil (01 - 05, 05 - 09), asphalt (main and sub - main contracts), European line container shipping index monthly spread, PTA (01 - 05, 05 - 09), ethylene glycol (01 - 05, 05 - 09), PP (01 - 05, 05 - 09), LLDPE (01 - 05, 05 - 09), and natural rubber (01 - 05, 05 - 09) [41][43][47][50][52][54][56]. - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It includes the spread and ratio charts of multiple energy - chemical varieties, such as the internal - external spread of crude oil, the B - W spread of crude oil, the high - low sulfur spread of fuel oil, the fuel oil/asphalt ratio, the BU/SC ratio, the ethylene glycol - PTA spread, the PP - LLDPE spread, and the natural rubber - 20 - grade rubber spread [58][60][61][70]. - **4.5 Production Profits**: The report shows the production profit charts of LLDPE and PP [67]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - **Zhong Meiyan**: Assistant Director of the Institute and Director of Energy - Chemicals, with a master's degree from Shanghai University of Finance and Economics. She has won multiple awards and has over a decade of experience in the futures derivatives market [72]. - **Du Bingqin**: Analyst for crude oil, natural gas, fuel oil, asphalt, and shipping, with a master's degree in applied economics from the University of Wisconsin - Madison. She has won many awards and has in - depth research on the energy industry [73]. - **Di Yilin**: Analyst for natural rubber and polyester, a finance master. She has won several awards and is mainly engaged in the research of related futures varieties [74]. - **Peng Haibo**: Analyst for methanol, propylene, pure benzene, PE, PP, and PVC, an engineering master and an intermediate economist. He has relevant work experience and has passed the CFA Level III exam [75].

光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 12 月 9 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周一油价重心回落，其中 WTI 1 月合约收盘下跌 1.20 美元至 58.88 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 2.00%。布伦特 2 月合约收盘下跌 1.26 美元至 62.49 | | | | 美元/桶，跌幅 1.98%。SC2601 以 448.0 元/桶收盘，下跌 8.4 元/ | | | | 桶，跌幅为1.84%。伊拉克恢复了在卢克石油Lukoil的West Qurna 2 | | | | 油田生产，这是全球最大的油田之一，此前一出口管道泄漏导致 | | | | 其产量大幅下降。上个月，卢克石油公司宣布在 West Qurna 2 油 | | | | 田发生不可抗力，因该公司与俄罗斯石油公司 Rosneft 一起受到 | | | 原油 | 美国制裁。该油田的产量约为每日 46 万桶，占到全球石油供应的 | 震荡 | | | 0.5%左右，并且占到伊拉克总产量的 9%。随着油井重新上线，该 | | | | 油田预计将在未来几小时 ...

热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 原油： 周一油价重心回落，其中WTI 1月合约收盘下跌1.20美元至58.88美元/桶，跌幅2.00%。布伦特2月合约收 盘下跌1.26美元至62.49美元/桶，跌幅1.98%。SC2601以448.0元/桶收盘，下跌8.4元/桶，跌幅为1.84%。 伊拉克恢复了在卢克石油Lukoil的West Qurna 2油田生产，这是全球最大的油田之一，此前一出口管道 泄漏导致其产量大幅下降。上个月，卢克石油公司宣布在West Qurna 2油田发生不可抗力，因该公司与 俄罗斯石油公司Rosneft一起受到美国制裁。该油田的产量约为每日46万桶，占到全球石油供应的0.5% 左右，并且占到伊拉克总产量的9%。随着油井重新上线，该油田预计将在未来几小时内全面恢复运 营。占全球原油供应1%的哈萨克斯坦里海管道联盟CPC至少要到12月11日才能恢复全部出口能力，此 前乌克兰无人机袭击损坏其终端关键部件。供应端增加的压力施压油价。海关总署公布的数据显示，中 国11月原油进口量为5089.1万吨，1-11月累计进口量为52187.0万吨，同比增加3.2%。预计全去年 ...

智通财经APP获悉，中信建投发布研报称，全球银、铜价再创历史新高。由于供应的扰动持续，长单的 海外溢价远超出市场预期，结合降息预期乐观，宏观和基本面共振，11月末，银和铜价翘尾收涨，并于 12月初现货价格再度刷新历史高位。后市来看，基本面的结构性矛盾存在，长期银价和铜价上涨的逻辑 不变。国际油价维持震荡，市场对前期俄乌和平会谈的预期有所回落，叠加"暧昧"的美委局势计入价 格，油价有小幅向上修复的迹象，WTI短暂突破60美元/桶。但从当前的驱动因素来看，国际油价仍然 处于偏弱震荡区间。 中信建投主要观点如下： 动态信息 行业综述：从交运各子板块相对沪深300的表现来看，本周(12月1日-12月5日)交运板块整体上涨。本周 物流综合板块上涨1.24%，其中原材料供应链服务板块上涨0.89%。 全球银、铜价再创历史新高 由于供应的扰动持续，长单的海外溢价远超出市场预期，结合降息预期乐观，宏观和基本面共振，11月 末，银和铜价翘尾收涨，并于12月初现货价格再度刷新历史高位。1日晚间，伦敦银现货价格盘中最高 冲至57.862美元/盎司，刷新历史纪录;4日国内现货铜价格升至91145元/吨，同比上涨22.06%。后市来 ...