Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the report industry investment rating in the provided content. Group 2: Report Core View - On Monday, polyolefins opened higher and then declined. For linear LL, Sinopec kept prices stable, and some prices of PetroChina remained stable. For拉丝PP, both Sinopec and PetroChina kept prices stable. From a fundamental perspective, the game in the Middle East has increased, and oil prices have turned volatile. This week, attention should be paid to the latest developments of the US - Israel - Iran conflict. Currently, the macro - environment has a repeated impact on the chemical industry during trading. In the future, attention should be paid to the actual start - up situation of the plants. At this stage of the polyolefin market, attention should be paid to the support of demand at the lower level [2]. Group 3: Summary by Relevant Catalog Futures Market - **Price and Change**: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 8313, 8804, and 8684 respectively, with price drops of - 103, - 64, and - 55 and percentage drops of - 1.22%, - 0.72%, and - 0.63% respectively. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 8459, 9269, and 8931 respectively, with price drops of - 77, - 44, and - 49 and percentage drops of - 0.90%, - 0.47%, and - 0.55% respectively [2]. - **Volume and Position**: For LL, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 9908, 890738, and 351294 respectively, and the positions were 15234, 324187, and 190270 respectively, with position changes of 1576, - 2555, and 2476 respectively. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 7273, 1032463, and 345405 respectively, and the positions were 21839, 337577, and 211164 respectively, with position changes of 1281, - 19730, and - 6088 respectively [2]. - **Spread**: For LL, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 491, 120, and 371 respectively, compared with previous values of - 452, 129, and 323. For PP, the current spreads of January - May, May - September, and September - January were - 810, 338, and 472 respectively, compared with previous values of - 777, 333, and 444 [2]. Spot Market - **Raw Materials**: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film were 3314 yuan/ton, 8770 yuan/ton, 1070 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 9160 yuan/ton, and 9600 yuan/ton respectively, compared with previous values of 3295 yuan/ton, 8300 yuan/ton, 1054 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 8820 yuan/ton, and 9600 yuan/ton [2]. - **Mid - stream**: For LL, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 8850 - 9700 yuan/ton, 8700 - 9800 yuan/ton, and 9000 - 9700 yuan/ton respectively. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets were 9150 - 9400 yuan/ton, 9150 - 9300 yuan/ton, and 9500 - 9650 yuan/ton respectively [2]. News - On Friday (March 27), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for May 2026 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $99.64 per barrel, the highest since July 20, 2022, up $5.16 or 5.46% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $92.08 - $101.24. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for May 2026 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $112.57 per barrel, the highest since July 4, 2022, up $4.56 or 4.22% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $105.09 - $114.88 [2].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The geopolitical situation is complex and volatile, with the Iran - related conflict having a continuous impact on the energy market, and the short - term cease - fire is difficult. Oil prices fluctuate significantly, and investors need to pay attention to position risk management [1][3] - Various energy and chemical products show an overall "oscillating" trend, and their prices are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, geopolitical situations, and cost changes [1][3][4] 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the decline of oil prices narrowed. WTI April contract closed down $2.03 to $90.32 per barrel, a 2.2% decline; Brent May contract closed down $2.27 to $102.22 per barrel, a 2.17% decline; SC2605 closed at 730.8 yuan per barrel, up 3.6 yuan per barrel, a 0.5% increase. US crude oil inventory increased by 6.926 million barrels to 456.185 million barrels last week, the highest since June 2024. Russia's oil export capacity has been reduced by 40%. The short - term cease - fire is difficult, and the impact on the energy market continues [1] - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contract FU2605 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 6.45% at 4348 yuan per ton; the low - sulfur fuel oil contract LU2605 closed down 3.89% at 5159 yuan per ton. From January to February 2026, China's fuel oil production was 6.247 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 9.89%, and the import volume of bonded marine fuel oil was 1.2124 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 41.44%. The market structure of low - sulfur and high - sulfur fuel oil remains strong, and the short - term cracking spread is expected to remain high [3] - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract BU2606 on the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 1.1% at 4410 yuan per ton. This week, the domestic asphalt plant operating rate was 20.45%, a 1.03% month - on - month decrease; the social inventory rate was 36.59%, a 0.81% month - on - month increase; the domestic refinery asphalt inventory level was 25.93%, a 0.78% month - on - month decrease. Due to high raw material prices and unstable supply, and the expected increase in downstream demand, the short - term asphalt price is expected to remain high [4] - **Polyester**: TA605 closed at 6592 yuan per ton, down 1.52%; EG2605 closed at 5036 yuan per ton, down 1.62%. Mainstream polyester filament manufacturers have increased the production cut from 15% to 20%, and the production cut cycle has been extended to the end of April. The polyester price fluctuates widely with the cost in the short term [4] - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contract RU2605 rose 205 yuan per ton to 16430 yuan per ton, NR rose 255 yuan per ton to 13565 yuan per ton, and butadiene rubber BR rose 920 yuan per ton to 17720 yuan per ton. In February 2026, the global light - vehicle sales increased slightly, but were affected by the decline in the Chinese passenger - car market, with a year - on - year decrease of 8.5%. The price of butadiene rubber increased, and the spread between natural rubber and synthetic rubber may continue to widen [6] - **Methanol**: The inventory has started to decline, but the possible resumption of Iranian plants may suppress price increases. The Iranian situation is unclear, which may cause large - scale fluctuations in the market [6] - **Polyolefin**: The upstream device maintenance and load - reduction devices are numerous, and the output will remain low. The downstream factory operating rate has increased, but short - term geopolitical risks have compressed downstream profit margins, and future demand growth may be hindered [7] - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The price in the East China, North China, and South China markets has decreased. The geopolitical situation has a greater impact on the ethylene - based method, while the profit of the calcium - carbide method has increased rapidly. The supply is expected to remain high, and the demand will gradually recover, maintaining a de - stocking rhythm [7] 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis price, basis rate, and their changes for multiple energy and chemical products such as crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, etc., as well as the quantile of the latest basis rate in historical data [8] 3.3 Market News - The US has proposed a plan to end the conflict to Iran through several friendly countries, and Iran is studying it. The US EIA report shows that last week, the increase in US crude oil inventory far exceeded expectations, and distillate inventory increased unexpectedly while gasoline inventory decreased [10] 3.4 Chart Analysis - **4.1 Main Contract Prices**: It presents the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products over the years, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [12][13][14] - **4.2 Main Contract Basis**: It shows the basis trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products over the years, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [30][32][34] - **4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads**: It displays the spreads between different contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, etc. [44][46][49] - **4.4 Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spreads and ratios between different varieties of energy and chemical products, such as the spread between crude oil's internal and external markets, the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, etc. [60][62][64] - **4.5 Production Profits**: It shows the production profit trends of various energy and chemical products, such as LLDPE, PP, PTA, etc. [70][72] 3.5 Research Team Members Introduction - The research team includes the deputy director of the research institute, the energy - chemical research director, and analysts for different product categories, each with rich experience and achievements [75][76][77] 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is on the 6th floor, Unit 703, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company phone is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [80]

Group 1: Market News and Important Data - The price of light crude oil futures for May delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose $4.22 to close at $92.35 per barrel, a gain of 4.79%. The price of Brent crude oil futures for May delivery rose $4.55 to close at $104.49 per barrel, a gain of 4.55%. The SC crude oil main contract fell 1.56% to 740 yuan per barrel [1] - Hungary's MOL Group has received approval from U.S. regulators to continue negotiations to acquire a majority stake in the refinery of Serbia's NIS [1] - Iran has started charging tolls on some merchant ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz, indicating its control over this key global maritime energy route. Some ships have paid the fee, highlighting the urgent need of some consumers to ensure a continuous energy flow [1] - The Asian Development Bank has launched an emergency assistance program for countries severely affected by the Middle East war and will lift restrictions on corporate financing for oil purchases. The new assistance mechanism first benefits Sri Lanka [1] Group 2: Investment Logic - The future of the Middle East conflict is uncertain. If the Strait of Hormuz toll is true, it is unacceptable to Gulf oil - producing countries and Asia - Pacific consumers. Saudi Arabia hopes the U.S. will continue military action against Iran, increasing the probability of further conflict and short - term oil price volatility [2] Group 3: Strategy - In the short term, oil prices are strongly driven up by the potential disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, but are also prone to sharp drops if the situation reverses. It is recommended to use options to hedge risks [3] Group 4: Risks - Downside risk: The Middle East war eases and the strait resumes normal navigation [3] - Upside risk: The suspension of the Strait of Hormuz lasts longer than expected [4]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that rising geopolitical tensions, particularly regarding Iran, are driving oil prices upward, with the oil ETF (561360) increasing by nearly 3% on February 25, and a net inflow of over 2.3 billion yuan in the past 20 days, bringing its total scale to over 3 billion yuan [1] - The oil and petrochemical industry is experiencing heightened risks due to the tense geopolitical situation in Iran and ongoing risks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which may lead to a strong fluctuation in oil prices in the short term [1] - In the medium to long term, oil prices are expected to be anchored by fundamentals, with OPEC+ increasing production and the development of oil fields in the Americas potentially leading to a continued oversupply situation, suggesting a possibility of further downward adjustment in oil price levels [1] Group 2 - Domestic oil companies are reducing their performance sensitivity to oil prices through integrated upstream and downstream layouts and diversifying their oil and gas sources, while also accelerating investments in domestic offshore oil and gas resource development to decrease reliance on foreign energy [1] - The oil ETF (561360) tracks the oil and gas industry index (H30198), which focuses on exploration, extraction, production, and sales within the oil and gas sector, selecting listed company securities that cover the entire industry chain, reflecting the overall performance of the oil and gas industry with high industry concentration and cyclical characteristics [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector, indicating a positive outlook despite geopolitical uncertainties [1]. Core Insights - The oil price is expected to remain supported in the short term due to ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, with specific focus on Iran and the Russia-Ukraine conflict [6][7]. - The fluorochemical sector is anticipated to maintain high levels of activity due to supply constraints and favorable demand driven by policy support [6][7]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - Geopolitical tensions continue to create uncertainty, with recent developments involving Iran and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict impacting oil prices [6]. - WTI crude futures fell by 3.27% and Brent crude futures by 3.75% during the reporting period [6]. - Domestic oil companies are diversifying their resource sources and integrating upstream and downstream operations to mitigate the impact of volatile oil prices [7]. Fluorochemicals - Supply quotas and favorable demand from policy support are expected to sustain high market activity [6]. - Prices for popular refrigerants R32 and R134a remain stable, with supply constraints leading to a tight market for certain products [6]. - The issuance of HFC production quotas for 2026 shows an increase, indicating a positive outlook for the sector [6]. Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor materials sector is experiencing a positive trend with inventory reduction and improving end-market fundamentals [7]. - The report suggests that the upward cycle in semiconductor materials, combined with domestic substitution, may lead to further price increases [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Outperform" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Insights - Kazakhstan's two major oil fields have halted production, causing supply disruptions that have boosted oil prices. WTI crude futures rose by 3.11% and Brent crude futures increased by 3.16% during the period from January 16 to January 23, 2026 [6]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly between the US and Europe regarding Greenland, and uncertainties in the Middle East, particularly concerning Iran, continue to pose risks to the oil market [6]. - The supply constraints in the fluorochemical sector, combined with favorable demand driven by policy support, are expected to sustain high levels of market activity [6]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemicals - Kazakhstan's oil fields "Tengiz" and "Korolev" have suspended production due to issues with the power distribution system, potentially lasting 7 to 10 days, which will reduce exports through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) [6]. - The report highlights the need for vigilance regarding the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, with the US increasing military presence while also delaying military actions against Iran [6]. - Domestic oil companies are diversifying their oil and gas sources and investing in offshore resources to reduce dependence on foreign energy [7]. Fluorochemicals - The issuance of HFC production quotas for 2026 has increased by 5,963 tons year-on-year, with specific increases for HFC-134a, HFC-245fa, and HFC-32 [6]. - The demand for refrigerants is expected to grow due to government subsidies and the ongoing recovery in the home appliance and automotive sectors [6]. - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the production of third-generation refrigerants and upstream fluorite resources [7]. Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor inventory reduction trend is improving, and the basic fundamentals are gradually recovering, indicating potential for further upward movement in the sector [7]. - The report recommends attention to companies involved in semiconductor materials, particularly those benefiting from domestic substitution trends [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The prices of various energy and chemical products are expected to fluctuate. Crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, polyester, rubber, methanol, polyolefins, and PVC are all forecasted to experience an oscillatory trend. Geopolitical factors, supply - demand dynamics, and production issues are the main drivers of these price movements [1][2][4]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Wednesday, the price center of oil prices moved slightly higher. WTI's new March contract closed up $0.26 to $60.62 per barrel, a 0.43% increase; Brent's March contract closed up $0.32 to $65.24 per barrel, a 0.49% increase; SC2603 closed at 446.5 yuan per barrel, up 5.4 yuan per barrel, a 1.2% increase. Production at two major oilfields in Kazakhstan was suspended, and API data showed an increase in US crude and product inventories. Trump's decision on tariffs and ongoing geopolitical games will keep oil prices oscillating [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: On Wednesday, the main fuel oil contracts on the SHFE closed higher. Low - sulfur fuel oil supply is sufficient in January, while downstream demand provides some support. High - sulfur fuel oil may face more supply from Venezuela. The absolute prices of FU and LU will likely follow oil price fluctuations, with FU having higher volatility [2]. - **Asphalt**: On Wednesday, the main asphalt contract on the SHFE closed up 0.45% at 3157 yuan per ton. Social and refinery inventory rates increased, and the plant operating rate rose. Market concerns about raw materials eased slightly, but the Iranian situation still affects prices. The asphalt market is in a game between "weak demand reality" and "strong cost expectations" [2]. - **Polyester**: TA605 and EG2605 closed higher on the previous day, while PX futures closed lower. PX supply is shrinking due to plant maintenance, and TA is expected to follow raw material prices. EG is expected to trade in a low - level oscillation due to ample supply and falling downstream demand [4]. - **Rubber**: On Wednesday, the main rubber contracts on the SHFE closed higher. Overseas production is nearing the end of the peak season, tire companies are restocking, and inventories are seasonally increasing. Rubber prices are expected to oscillate widely in the short term [4]. - **Methanol**: On Wednesday, spot prices in different regions were reported. Domestic supply is at a high - level oscillation, and Iranian supply remains low. Zhejiang Xingxing's shutdown weakened MTO operating loads. Methanol is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation [6]. - **Polyolefins**: On Wednesday, prices and production margins of different polyolefins were reported. In January, there were some temporary shutdowns in upstream plants, and demand recovered in the early part of the month but will weaken as the Spring Festival approaches. Polyolefins are expected to trade at the bottom [6]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: On Wednesday, PVC prices in different regions showed different trends. Supply is at a high - level oscillation, domestic demand is slowing, and the 05 contract has a large premium. PVC is expected to maintain a bottom - level oscillation [7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides data on the basis, basis rate, price changes, and historical quantiles of various energy and chemical products, including crude oil, liquefied petroleum gas, asphalt, high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, and many others [8]. 3.3 Market News - Trump decided not to implement the planned tariffs on eight European countries after reaching a framework agreement on Greenland with NATO Secretary - General Mark Rutte. Production at two major oilfields in Kazakhstan was suspended due to power distribution and equipment issues, and the suspension may last for seven to ten days [11]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - The report presents line charts showing the historical closing prices of main contracts for various energy and chemical products from 2022 - 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [13][15][17]. 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - Line charts display the historical basis of main contracts for different products, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, etc. [29][30][35]. 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - Charts show the historical spreads between different contracts (e.g., 01 - 05, 05 - 09) for products like fuel oil, asphalt, PTA, ethylene glycol, etc. [42][47][50]. 3.4.4 Inter - product Spreads - Charts illustrate the historical spreads between different products, such as crude oil's internal - external spreads, B - W spreads, fuel oil's high - low sulfur spreads, etc. [58][60][62]. 3.4.5 Production Profits - Charts present the historical production profits or processing fees for products like LLDPE, PP, PTA, and the cash flow of ethylene - based ethylene glycol [66][68]. 3.5 Team Introduction - The research team includes the deputy director of the research institute Zhong Meiyan, the energy and chemical research director Du Bingqin, the natural rubber/polyester analyst Di Yilin, and the methanol/propylene/pure benzene PE/PP/PVC analyst Peng Haibo, with their respective backgrounds and achievements introduced [71][72][73]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is at Unit 703, 6th Floor, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, fax is 021 - 80212200, customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [76].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the oil and petrochemical sector [1]. Core Viewpoints - The uncertainty in the Middle East has increased, leading to a short-term strong fluctuation in oil prices. WTI crude futures closed up by 1.02% and Brent oil futures by 1.87% during the week of January 9 to January 16, 2026 [6]. - Geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Iran and the U.S., are significant factors affecting oil prices. Iran's oil inventory has reached record levels, equivalent to about 50 days of production, due to Western sanctions [6]. - The fluorochemical sector is expected to maintain high prosperity due to supply quota constraints and favorable demand driven by policy support. The production quota for HFCs in 2026 has increased by 5,963 tons year-on-year [6]. Summary by Sections Oil and Petrochemical - The report highlights the increased uncertainty in the Middle East, which is likely to impact oil prices in the short term. The geopolitical situation, including U.S. sanctions and military movements, is a critical factor [6][7]. - The report notes that domestic oil companies are diversifying their oil sources and integrating upstream and downstream operations to mitigate the impact of volatile international oil prices [7]. Fluorochemical - The fluorochemical sector is experiencing a favorable environment due to supply constraints and policy-driven demand. The production quotas for HFCs have been adjusted, with significant increases in specific categories [6][7]. - The report indicates that the demand for refrigerants is expected to grow, supported by national subsidy policies, with production of household air conditioners projected to increase by 11% year-on-year in January 2026 [6]. Semiconductor Materials - The semiconductor materials sector is on an upward cycle, with improving fundamentals and domestic substitution trends. The report suggests that there is potential for further price increases in this sector [7].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall view of the energy - chemical commodities market is that most varieties are expected to show an oscillatory trend. For crude oil, supply - side concerns are intensifying, which will provide phased support for oil prices. For fuel oil, the short - term absolute prices of FU and LU may follow the oil price fluctuations, and it is recommended to short high - sulfur fuel oil on rallies. For asphalt, the price is expected to stabilize and strengthen. For polyester, the price is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, while ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate widely. For rubber, the price is under pressure from inventory accumulation. For methanol, it is expected to maintain bottom - level oscillations. For polyolefins, they will continue to oscillate at the bottom. For PVC, the price will also maintain bottom - level oscillations [1][2]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views Crude Oil - WTI February contract closed at $61.15 per barrel, up $1.65 or 2.77%. Brent March contract closed at $65.47 per barrel, up $1.60 or 2.51%. SC2602 closed at 450.4 yuan per barrel, up 12.7 yuan or 2.90%. - The Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal's disruption, along with multiple factors, has halved the loading volume to about 900,000 barrels per day. Kazakhstan has diverted some oil to other routes. - API data shows an increase in US API crude, Cushing crude, gasoline, and distillate inventories last week. - At least 4 Russian oil tankers in the Black Sea were attacked, and supply - side concerns are intensifying, providing phased support for oil prices. The view is oscillatory [1]. Fuel Oil - The main contract of high - sulfur fuel oil (FU2603) rose 0.53% to 2,461 yuan per ton, and the main contract of low - sulfur fuel oil (LU2603) rose 1.66% to 3,066 yuan per ton. - The low - sulfur fuel oil market will remain well - supplied in the short term, while the high - sulfur fuel oil market has some support from the recovery of downstream demand. However, the entry of Venezuelan heavy crude may have a negative impact on high - sulfur spreads. - It is recommended to short high - sulfur fuel oil on rallies, and the view is oscillatory [2]. Asphalt - The main contract of asphalt (BU2602) fell 0.66% to 3,140 yuan per ton. - Due to the geopolitical situation in Venezuela, the expectation of tight processing raw materials has strengthened, and the refinery supply has decreased, driving up the price. - The market will be in a game between "weak demand reality" and "strong cost expectation," and the price is expected to stabilize and strengthen. The view is oscillatory [2]. Polyester - TA605 closed at 5,140 yuan per ton, down 0.04%. EG2605 closed at 3,815 yuan per ton, down 1.68%. PX futures contract 603 closed at 7,282 yuan per ton, down 0.36%. - Geopolitical risks have raised the risk premium of crude oil, and there is a game between the downstream negative feedback and the rise in oil prices. The price of polyester is expected to oscillate strongly in the short term, and ethylene glycol is expected to oscillate widely. The view is oscillatory [2][4]. Rubber - The main contract of natural rubber (RU2605) fell 155 yuan per ton to 15,975 yuan per ton, and the main contract of 20 - number rubber (NR) fell 170 yuan per ton to 12,840 yuan per ton. - In November 2025, the export volume of natural rubber decreased by 14.7% year - on - year and 29.8% month - on - month. - The rubber price rebounded in a general commodity - rising atmosphere, but it is under pressure from inventory accumulation after the low - production season. The view is oscillatory [4]. Methanol - The spot price in Taicang was 2,257 yuan per ton. - The arrival volume in January has decreased significantly, and the MTO device load has also declined. The port will face inventory - removal pressure, and the price is expected to maintain bottom - level oscillations. The view is oscillatory [4]. Polyolefins - The mainstream price of PP in East China was 6,370 - 6,500 yuan per ton, and the profit margins of various production methods were negative. For PE, the prices of different types are given, and the profit margins of different production methods vary. - In January, there are partial temporary shutdowns and maintenance of upstream devices, and the supply is expected to decrease slightly. The demand will recover in early January but decline in late January due to the Spring Festival. - The inventory is expected to rise in late January, and polyolefins will continue to oscillate at the bottom. The view is oscillatory [6]. Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC) - The market prices in East, North, and South China have adjusted. - The supply remains at a high - level oscillation, and the domestic demand has slowed down. The market shows a structure of "weak reality and strong expectation." The export tax - refund policy change will increase the upward pressure on the far - month contract and support the near - month contract. The price is expected to maintain bottom - level oscillations. The view is oscillatory [6][7]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The data table shows the spot price, futures price, basis, basis rate, and their changes for various energy - chemical varieties on January 13th and 12th, 2026, as well as the latest basis rate's quantile in historical data [8]. 3.3 Market News - US President Trump's increased verbal attacks on Iran have intensified investors' concerns about US intervention and supply disruptions in Iran, which may threaten Iran's daily oil production of about 3.3 million barrels. Trump also said he would impose a 25% tariff on goods from countries "doing business" with Iran. - The situation in Iran has also exacerbated the bullish sentiment in the market. The Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal's disruption has halved the loading volume of Kazakh crude to about 900,000 barrels per day, but Kazakhstan has diverted some oil to other routes [10]. 3.4 Chart Analysis 3.4.1 Main Contract Prices - There are price trend charts for the main contracts of various energy - chemical commodities from 2022 to 2026, including crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, LPG, PTA, ethylene glycol, short - fiber, LLDPE, PP, PVC, methanol, styrene, 20 - number rubber, natural rubber, synthetic rubber, European - line container shipping, and paraxylene [12][14][16][18][20][23][24][26][27]. 3.4.2 Main Contract Basis - There are basis trend charts for the main contracts of various energy - chemical commodities from 2022 to 2026, such as crude oil, fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, asphalt, ethylene glycol, PP, LLDPE, natural rubber, 20 - number rubber, paraxylene, synthetic rubber, and bottle chips [29][34][35][36][39][40]. 3.4.3 Inter - period Contract Spreads - There are spread trend charts for different contracts of energy - chemical commodities, including fuel oil (01 - 05, 05 - 09), asphalt (main and sub - main), European - line container shipping index monthly spread, PTA (01 - 05, 05 - 09), ethylene glycol (01 - 05, 05 - 09), PP (01 - 05, 05 - 09), LLDPE (01 - 05, 05 - 09), and natural rubber (01 - 05, 05 - 09) [42][44][47][50][52][54][56]. 3.4.4 Inter - variety Spreads - There are spread and ratio trend charts for different energy - chemical varieties, including crude oil (domestic - international, B - W), fuel oil (high - low sulfur, fuel oil/asphalt), BU/SC ratio, ethylene glycol - PTA spread, PP - LLDPE spread, and natural rubber - 20 - number rubber spread [58][60][62][64]. 3.4.5 Production Profits - There are profit and processing - fee trend charts for energy - chemical products, including LLDPE production profit, PP production profit, PTA processing fee, and ethylene - based ethylene glycol cash flow [66][68]. 3.5 Team Members Introduction - The research team members include the deputy director of the research institute, Zhong Meiyan, with rich experience and many awards; the energy - chemical research director, Du Bingqin, also with many honors and in - depth industry research; the natural rubber/polyester analyst, Di Yilin, who has won some awards and is good at data analysis; and the methanol/propylene/pure benzene PE/PP/PVC analyst, Peng Haibo, with a background in futures - spot trading and a CFA - level 3 qualification [71][72][73][74].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that oil prices have experienced fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and economic data, with expectations for Brent and WTI oil prices in 2026 projected between $55-65 and $52-62 per barrel, respectively [1][4] - In December 2025, the average price of Brent crude oil futures was $61.6 per barrel, a decrease of $2.0 per barrel month-on-month, while WTI crude oil futures averaged $57.9 per barrel, down $1.6 per barrel month-on-month [1][2] - OPEC+ has announced a pause in production increases for the first quarter of 2026, following a complete withdrawal of voluntary production cuts of 2.2 million barrels per day from April to September 2025 [3][4] Group 2 - The International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasts significant oil supply surplus in 2026, with oil demand expected to grow by 86-138 million barrels per day [3] - China's petrochemical industry is facing an overall surplus in refining capacity, with a focus on optimizing supply-side measures and controlling new refining capacity [4] - The geopolitical landscape, including uncertainties surrounding U.S.-Iran relations and U.S. tariffs, is expected to impact the oil market significantly [4]