调价周期内，供应过剩预期加剧、地缘风险溢价削减等因素影响国际油价波动下行。国际能源署、美国能源信息署、欧佩克三大机构在最新月报中均判断今 明两年油市将面临供应过剩，其中国际能源署将2026年供应过剩预估上调至409万桶/日。此外，美国正推动乌克兰接受与俄罗斯的和平协议，据称其已起草 停火协议草案，地缘风险溢价有所消退。但另一方面，美国政府结束"停摆"，以及美国原油库存超预期下降，在一定程度提振了市场情绪，并为油价提供支 撑。 央视财经（记者 平凡 张娅芳）记者今天从国家发展改革委了解到，受国际油价下跌影响，国内汽柴油价格将于11月24日24时起下调。据国家发展改革委价 格监测中心监测，本轮成品油调价周期内（11月10日—11月21日）国际油价波动下行。 从11月24日24时起，国内汽、柴油每吨分别下调70元和65元。全国平均来看，92号汽油每升下调0.05元，95号汽油每升下调0.06元，0号柴油每升下调0.06 元。 央视财经记者给您算了一笔账，用92号汽油加满50升油箱将少花2.5元。物流行业以月跑10000公里、百公里油耗在38升的重型卡车为例，在下次调价窗口开 启前，单辆车的燃油成本将下降106元左右 ...

原油成品油早报 ·三位伊拉克能源官员：伊拉克政府正商讨向美国财政部申请为期六个月的豁免，以允许卢克石油出售其在西库尔纳-2油 田的股权。 ·市场消息：苏丹能源设施遇袭，石油出口中断。 ·截至11月17日当周山东独立炼厂原油到港量267万吨，环比下跌7.5万吨 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/18 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- | WTI-BREN | DUBAI-B | NYMEX RB | RBOB-BR | NYMEX | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | | 2月差 | T | RT（EFS | OB | T | HO | | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/11/11 | 61.04 | 65.16 | 65.96 | -0.96 | 0.29 | -4.12 | -0.26 | 201.20 | 19.34 | 257.5 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Crude Oil and Refined Oil Morning Report - Research Team: Energy and Chemicals Team of the Research Center - Date: November 14, 2025 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Report's Core View - This week, oil prices remained volatile. OPEC+ decided to suspend production increases in Q1 next year. US EIA commercial crude oil inventories increased by 5.202 million barrels due to increased imports and reduced refining activities, exceeding market expectations. Western sanctions on Russia and Iran have led to a record high in floating storage, and Russian oil is trading at its largest discount in India in nearly a year. Refining margins in Europe and the US rebounded this week. Western sanctions and the extended maintenance of Dangote Refinery supported gasoline and diesel cracking sentiment. The domestic fundamentals are neutral. Global oversupply and sanctions support the Dubai market, and Brent crude oil is expected to trade in the range of $55 - $65 in Q4 [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1. Price Data - From November 7 - 13, 2025, WTI prices fluctuated between $58.49 - $61.04, BRENT between $62.71 - $65.16, and DUBAI increased from $64.93 to $64.45 with a change of $0.18. Other related prices such as SC, OMAN, and various refined product prices also showed corresponding fluctuations [3]. 3.2. Daily News - Ukraine's drone attacks damaged apartment buildings and oil depots in Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossiysk [3]. - The Trump administration lifted the ban on oil extraction in the 23 - million - acre Alaska National Petroleum Reserve, reversing a ban implemented by President Biden. Alaska predicts that the oil field's crude production will rise to 139,600 barrels per day in fiscal year 2033, up from 15,800 barrels per day in fiscal year 2023 [4]. - Russian refineries are increasing the utilization of idle capacity to make up for losses caused by Ukrainian drone attacks [4]. - The IEA said that US sanctions may have a profound impact on Russia's crude production outlook, but it maintains its estimate of Russia's average daily crude output of 9.3 million barrels this quarter and next year [4]. 3.3. Inventory Data - In the week ending November 7, US crude exports decreased by 1.551 million barrels per day to 2.816 million barrels per day; domestic crude production increased by 211,000 barrels to 13.862 million barrels per day; commercial crude inventories (excluding strategic reserves) increased by 6.413 million barrels to 428 million barrels, a 1.52% increase; strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 798,000 barrels to 410.4 million barrels, a 0.19% increase; and commercial crude imports (excluding strategic reserves) were 5.222 million barrels per day, a decrease of 702,000 barrels per day from the previous week [4][5]. - As of the week ending November 12, the total refined product inventory at the Port of Fujairah in the UAE was 21.181 million barrels, an increase of 3.204 million barrels from the previous week [6]. - As of the week ending November 8, Japan's commercial crude inventory decreased by 353,966 kiloliters to 10,379,001 kiloliters [6]. - From October 31 - November 6, both gasoline and diesel inventories decreased, with gasoline at 10.5757 million tons (down 0.4%) and diesel at 12.8962 million tons (down 1.82%) [6].

·据塔斯社报道，俄罗斯外交部官员Alexei Polishchuk周三称，俄罗斯准备在伊斯坦布尔恢复与乌克兰的谈判。 ·消息人士称，俄罗斯卢克石油公司已向美国财政部申请延长11月21日之后禁止与该公司进行交易的最后期限。 原油成品油早报 研究中心能化团队 2025/11/13 | 日期 | WTI | BRENT | DUBAI | diff FOB dated bre | BRENT 1- 2月差 | WTI-BREN T | DUBAI-B RT（EFS | NYMEX RB OB | RBOB-BR T | NYMEX HO | HO-BRT | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | | | nt | | | | | | | | | 2025/11/06 | 59.43 | 63.38 | 64.73 | 0.13 | 0.31 | -3.95 | -0.01 | 196.56 | 19.18 | 249.61 | 41.46 | | 2025/11/07 | 59.75 | 63. ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the petrochemical sector, specifically recommending China National Petroleum, China Petroleum & Chemical, CNOOC, Zhongman Petroleum, and New Natural Gas [4]. Core Views - OPEC+ has decided to pause production increases in Q1 2026, with a planned increase of 137,000 barrels per day in December 2025. The next meeting is scheduled for November 30, 2025. The market sentiment has improved due to this decision, but concerns about weak demand and oversupply remain, leading to expectations of price fluctuations in the short term [1][7]. - The report highlights the impact of U.S. sanctions on Russian oil producers, which has led Turkish refiners to reduce purchases of Russian crude and seek alternatives from Iraq, Libya, Saudi Arabia, and Kazakhstan [1][7]. Summary by Sections Industry Investment Rating - The report recommends focusing on industry leaders with strong performance and high dividends, specifically China National Petroleum, China Petroleum & Chemical, and CNOOC, due to their stable earnings and growth potential [10]. Oil Supply and Demand - As of October 31, 2025, U.S. crude oil production reached 13.65 million barrels per day, an increase of 10,000 barrels from the previous week. Refinery throughput also rose to 15.26 million barrels per day, up by 40,000 barrels [8][9]. - U.S. crude oil inventories increased, with strategic reserves at 409.6 million barrels, up by 500,000 barrels week-on-week [9]. Price Trends - As of November 7, 2025, Brent crude oil futures settled at $63.63 per barrel, down 2.21% from the previous week, while WTI futures settled at $59.75 per barrel, down 2.02% [8][34]. - The report notes a decrease in LNG prices in Northeast Asia, with the price at $11.02 per million British thermal units, down 1.63% week-on-week [8][37]. Company Performance - The report indicates that the petrochemical sector has outperformed the broader market, with a 4.6% increase in the sector compared to a 0.8% increase in the CSI 300 index as of November 7, 2025 [11][14]. - Key companies such as Zhongjie Oil and Gas and Hengtong Petrochemical have shown significant weekly gains, with increases of 15.61% and 8.20%, respectively [16].

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core View of the Report - The overnight crude oil failed to maintain its upward momentum and declined, ending the session slightly lower. Saudi Aramco's reduction of the official selling price to Asia dampened some of the market's optimistic sentiment. The impact of sanctions on Russia has begun to show, but it is weak and its sustainability remains to be seen. It is estimated that Russia's oil exports from its western ports in November will slightly decline, but still remain close to recent historical highs. In the short term, there is not enough support for a significant increase in oil prices. It is expected that oil prices will continue to fluctuate. The SC2512 contract is expected to trade in the range of 450 - 460, and long - term investors are advised to stay on the sidelines [3] Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Tips - **Fundamentals**: After the US imposed a new round of sanctions on major Russian oil producers, major refineries in India and China reduced their purchases, causing the trading price of Russian oil in Asia to show the largest discount to Brent crude in a year. Saudi Arabia lowered the price of its main crude oil sold to Asia in December. Saudi Aramco cut the price of its flagship Arab Light crude oil for Asia by $1.20 per barrel, to a premium of $1 per barrel over the regional benchmark. The overall assessment is neutral [3] - **Basis**: On November 6, the spot price of Oman crude oil was $64.95 per barrel, and the spot price of Qatar Marine crude oil was $64.51 per barrel. The basis was 30.99 yuan per barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price, which is a bullish signal [3] - **Inventory**: For the week ending October 31, the API crude oil inventory in the US increased by 6.521 million barrels, and the EIA inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels (expected to increase by 0.603 million barrels). The inventory in the Cushing area increased by 30 barrels. As of November 6, the inventory of Shanghai crude oil futures remained unchanged at 3.47 million barrels, which is a bearish signal [3] - **Market**: The 20 - day moving average is downward, and the price is above the moving average, which is a bearish signal [3] - **Main Position**: As of September 23, the long positions of the WTI crude oil main contract increased, and as of October 28, the long positions of the Brent crude oil main contract also increased, which is a bullish signal [3] - **Expectation**: Oil prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, with the SC2512 contract trading in the range of 450 - 460, and long - term investors are advised to stay on the sidelines [3] 2. Recent News - **Saudi Arabia's Pricing Adjustment**: Saudi Arabia lowered the price of its main crude oil sold to Asia in December. Saudi Aramco cut the price of Arab Light crude oil for Asia by $1.20 per barrel, to a premium of $1 per barrel over the regional benchmark. It also cut the prices of medium and heavy crude oils by $1.40 per barrel and the prices of ultra - light and extra - light crude oils by $1.20 per barrel. Saudi Arabia and some major OPEC+ members announced that they would suspend production increases in the first quarter to balance market share competition and potential supply gluts. London market crude oil has fallen nearly 15% this year and is currently trading below $65 [5] - **US Employment Situation**: Private data shows that US employment decreased in October due to government and retail sectors. The number of announced layoffs soared by 37% to 43,600 in October, and the planned layoff number in October soared by 183% to 153,074, the highest in the same period in 22 years [5] - **Fed's Stance**: Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester said that high inflation levels are not conducive to the Fed's further interest rate cuts, and she is worried that monetary policy may not be well - prepared to deal with current inflation [5] 3. Long - Short Concerns - **Bullish Factors**: There are optimistic signals in Sino - US trade negotiations, the cancellation of the US - Russia talks and increased sanctions on Russia, and OPEC+ will suspend production increases in the first quarter of next year [6] - **Bearish Factors**: The situation in the Middle East has eased, there is a risk of a US government shutdown, and OPEC+ is considering further production increases [6] - **Market Drivers**: Geopolitical conflicts have intensified in the short term, and there is a risk of increased supply in the medium and long term [6] 4. Fundamental Data - **Futures Market**: The settlement prices of Brent crude, WTI crude, SC crude, and Oman crude all declined. Their decline rates were - 0.22%, - 0.29%, - 0.35%, and - 1.43% respectively [7] - **Spot Market**: The prices of UK Brent Dtd, WTI, Oman crude, Shengli crude, and Dubai crude all declined. Their decline rates were - 0.96%, - 0.29%, - 1.65%, - 0.67%, and - 1.37% respectively [9] - **Inventory Data**: API and EIA inventories both increased in the week ending October 31. API inventory increased by 6.521 million barrels, and EIA inventory increased by 5.202 million barrels [3][10][12] 5. Position Data - **WTI Crude Oil**: As of September 23, the net long position of WTI crude oil funds increased by 4,249 [16] - **Brent Crude Oil**: As of October 28, the net long position of Brent crude oil funds increased by 119,046 [18]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report predicts that PX, PTA, and PR will fluctuate within a narrow range (PX view score: 0, PTA view score: 0, PR view score: 0) [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Information - **Crude Oil**: On November 5, 2025, the futures settlement price (continuous) of WTI crude oil was $59.60 per barrel, down 1.59% from the previous value; Brent crude oil was $63.52 per barrel, down 1.43% [1] - **Naphtha**: The spot price (mid - price) of naphtha CFR Japan on November 5, 2025, was $577.50 per ton, up 0.17% [1] - **PX**: The spot price of PX CFR China Main Port on November 5, 2025, was $816.00 per ton, up 0.18%; the domestic spot price was 6504.00 yuan per ton, unchanged [1] - **PTA**: The CCFEI price index of PTA inner - market on November 5, 2025, was 4510.00 yuan per ton, down 0.33%; the outer - market was $610.00 per ton (November 4), down 0.49% [1] - **PR**: The market price (mainstream price) of polyester bottle chips in the East China market on November 5, 2025, was 5690.00 yuan per ton, down 0.44%; in the South China market, it was 5730.00 yuan per ton, down 0.52% [1] - **Downstream Products**: The CCFEI price index of polyester products such as polyester DTY, POY, FDY, short - fiber, chip, and bottle - grade chip showed little change or a slight decline on November 5, 2025 [2] Spread Information - **PXN Spread**: On November 5, 2025, it was $238.50 per ton, up 0.21% [1] - **PX - MX Spread**: On November 5, 2025, it was $129.00 per ton, up 0.78% [1] - **Near - far Month Spread of PTA**: On November 5, 2025, it was - 36.00 yuan per ton, an increase of 10.00 yuan [1] - **Basis**: The basis of PTA was - 90.00 yuan per ton on November 5, 2025, a decrease of 11.00 yuan; the basis of PX was - 146.00 yuan per ton, an increase of 10.00 yuan; the basis of PR in the East China market was 28.00 yuan per ton, a decrease of 21.00 yuan; in the South China market, it was 68.00 yuan per ton, a decrease of 26.00 yuan [1] Operating Rate Information - On November 5, 2025, the operating rate of the PX in the polyester industry chain was 86.21%, unchanged; the PTA factory load rate was 77.84%, down 1.82%; the polyester factory load rate was 89.56%, unchanged; the bottle - chip factory load rate was 75.63%, unchanged; the load rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms was 72.28%, unchanged [1] Production and Sales Rate Information - On November 5, 2025, the production and sales rate of polyester filament was 52.59%, up 4.44%; the production and sales rate of polyester short - fiber was 38.35%, down 4.26%; the production and sales rate of polyester chips was 46.28%, down 22.17% [1] Device Information - The 2.7 - million - ton (design capacity) PTA device of Dushan Energy's No. 4 started trial operation on October 25, 2025. After the new device runs stably, the old one will be shut down [2] Important News and Logic - **PX**: With the cooling of the overall risk appetite in the financial market, oil prices fluctuated and closed down. The domestic PX device supply was stable, and the demand - side PTA had both maintenance and restart. Some domestic PX plants had reformer maintenance, but the market supply remained stable with the supplement of toluene and xylene. Overseas devices ran smoothly. A 700,000 - ton device in the Northeast was expanded to 1 million tons and was increasing production [2] - **PTA**: The market focus returned to the fundamentals. PTA spot supply was sufficient. The crude oil market fluctuated narrowly, and downstream demand was stable. A 2.7 - million - ton PTA device in East China started trial operation, which had limited impact on the market. The supply - side production reduction expectation failed, and downstream demand was generally weak [2] - **PR**: The mainstream negotiation price of polyester bottle chips in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang markets was 5670 - 5790 yuan per ton, down 10 yuan per ton. The PTA and bottle - chip futures fluctuated narrowly. The supply - side offers mostly decreased, and downstream purchasing willingness was low [2] Trading Strategy - It is expected that PX, PTA, and PR will fluctuate within a narrow range [2]

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The report expects PX, PTA, and PR to experience narrow - range fluctuations [3] Summary by Related Catalogs Price Changes - On October 28, 2025, the prices of WTI crude oil, Brent crude oil, and various upstream products such as naphtha and xylene decreased. The WTI crude oil futures settlement price was $60.15 per barrel, down 1.89% from the previous value; the Brent crude oil futures settlement price was $64.40 per barrel, down 1.86% [1]. - The prices of PTA and PX futures and spot showed mixed trends. For example, the CZCE TA main - contract settlement price was 4,614 yuan per ton, up 0.79%, and the CZCE PX main - contract settlement price was 6,612 yuan per ton, up 0.36% [1]. - The prices of PR futures and spot also changed. The CZCE PR main - contract settlement price was 5,720 yuan per ton, up 0.67%, and the prices of polyester bottle - chips in the East China and South China markets increased [1]. - The CCFEI price indices of various polyester products such as polyester staple fiber, polyester chips, and bottle - grade chips increased on October 28, 2025 [2]. Industry Information - Dushan Energy's 4 2.7 - million - ton PTA device started trial operation on October 25, 2025, and will shut down the old device after the new one runs stably [2]. - The market has initially priced in the impact of sanctions on Russia, and the upward momentum of oil prices is insufficient. In the medium - to - long - term, due to Saudi Arabia's push to regain market share, oil prices may face oversupply pressure [2]. - The domestic PX operating load is at a high level, and a device in the Northeast may complete capacity expansion at the end of the month. The demand from the PTA side is okay, and the market game atmosphere has intensified [2]. - The sentiment in the PTA market was boosted by the industry meeting. Although the new PTA capacity in East China started trial production, the expectation of anti - involution offset its impact. However, it may be difficult to coordinate a new production - cut plan [2]. - The polyester bottle - chip market in the Jiangsu - Zhejiang region had a mainstream negotiation price range of 5,730 - 5,830 yuan per ton on October 28, 2025, up 15 yuan per ton from the previous trading day. The supply - side offer intention increased, but the downstream buying was weak [2]. Production and Sales - On October 28, 2025, the operating rates of the PX, PTA, polyester, bottle - chip, and Jiangsu - Zhejiang loom industries in the polyester industry chain remained unchanged [1]. - The production - sales rates of polyester filament, polyester staple fiber, and polyester chips decreased. The polyester filament production - sales rate was 62.50%, down 7.50 percentage points; the polyester staple fiber production - sales rate was 43.50%, down 39.93 percentage points; and the polyester chip production - sales rate was 57.61%, down 164.56 percentage points [1]. Trading Volume - On October 28, 2025, the trading volume of the PX2601 contract was 162,800 lots, the trading volume of the TA2601 contract was 755,500 lots, and the trading volume of the PR2601 contract was 31,200 lots [2]

Group 1 - Oil stocks are performing actively against the market trend, with CNOOC Services (02883) up 3.05% to HKD 7.1, Shanghai Petrochemical (00338) up 2.94% to HKD 1.4, PetroChina (00857) up 1.15% to HKD 7.89, and CNOOC (00883) up 1.04% to HKD 19.52 [1] - On October 22, Brent crude oil futures increased by 2% to USD 62.41 per barrel, while WTI crude oil futures rose to over USD 58, gaining nearly 2% [1] - Ping An Securities noted that the easing of Middle Eastern geopolitical conflicts has led to a reduction in oil price risk premium, but risks from the Russia-Ukraine conflict and US-Venezuela tensions remain, alongside uncertainties regarding US government operations, tariffs, and interest rate cuts, suggesting that oil prices may experience volatility [1]

Group 1 - The oil sector experienced a significant rally on the 22nd, with companies like Keli Co., Ltd. rising over 10%, and others such as Beiken Energy and PetroChina reaching their daily limit up [1] - The U.S. Department of Energy announced plans to purchase 1 million barrels of crude oil to replenish its strategic petroleum reserve, utilizing $171 million allocated from the "Big and Beautiful Act" [1] - Major international agencies IEA, EIA, and OPEC released monthly reports indicating an upward adjustment in crude oil production forecasts for the next two years, while demand remains weak, suggesting a continued oversupply situation [1] Group 2 - Ping An Securities noted that the easing of Middle Eastern geopolitical tensions may lead to a reduction in oil price risk premiums, but ongoing risks from Russia-Ukraine and U.S.-Venezuela situations, along with uncertainties in U.S. government operations and trade policies, could result in volatile oil prices [2] - In the medium to long term, oil prices are expected to be anchored by fundamentals, with concerns about further downward adjustments as OPEC+ continues to increase production [2] - Domestic oil companies are reducing their sensitivity to oil price fluctuations through integrated upstream and downstream operations and diversifying their oil and gas sources, while also increasing investments in domestic offshore oil and gas resources to decrease reliance on foreign energy [2]