光大期货能化商品日报 光大期货能化商品日报（2025 年 8 月 21 日） 一、研究观点 | 品种 | 点评 | 观点 | | --- | --- | --- | | | 周三油价有所反弹，其中 WTI 9 月合约收盘上涨 0.86 美元至 63.21 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.38%。布伦特 10 月合约收盘上涨 1.05 美元至 66.84 | | | | 美元/桶，涨幅 1.6%。SC2510 以 486.6 元/桶收盘，上涨 4.6 元/ | | | | 桶，涨幅 0.95%。EIA 周三公布的库存报告显示，美国上周原油和 | | | | 汽油库存下降，但馏分油库存增加。截至 8 月 15 日当周，美国商 | | | | 业原油库存减少 600 万桶至 4.207 亿桶，此前市场预期为减少 180 | | | | 万桶。美国战略石油储备 SPR 增加 20 万桶至 4.034 亿桶。美国库 | | | | 欣原油库存增加 41.9 万桶。随着 8 月底重启核谈判与恢复联合国 | | | 原油 | 核监督合作的最后期限临近，英国、法国和德国近日发出警告， | 震荡 | | | 若伊朗未能满足 ...

Market News and Important Data - The price of light - sweet crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $1.07 to $62.35 per barrel, a decline of 1.69%; the price of Brent crude oil futures for October delivery on London dropped 81 cents to $65.79 per barrel, a decline of 1.22%. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.87% at 481 yuan per barrel [1] - The spokesman for the Commander - in - Chief of the Iraqi Armed Forces said that the withdrawal of the US - led international coalition from Iraq was "an achievement of the government", and Iraq was capable of combating terrorism and maintaining national security and stability without external assistance [1] - US Treasury Secretary Besent plans to raise tariffs on India for purchasing Russian oil, stating that India's arbitrage through Russian oil is unacceptable [1] - Germany's economy ministry said that the oil transportation route from Russia's Friendship Pipeline to Kazakhstan was briefly interrupted due to Ukraine's attack on relevant infrastructure [1] - If the US maintains higher tariffs on India than on other Asian markets, it will pose risks to Fitch's forecast of India's 6.5% economic growth rate this fiscal year. The US imposed a 25% reciprocal tariff on India on August 7, and another 25% tariff will take effect on August 27. Fitch believes that India's IT service companies and domestic - focused industries will be minimally affected, but higher tariffs will pressure Indian companies' operating performance and may bring downward risks to domestic prices of products like steel and chemicals [1] Investment Logic - Before the Russia - US summit, Ukraine has recently increased its attacks on Russian oil infrastructure, including key pumping stations of the Friendship Pipeline and several major Russian refineries. The attack has led to the interruption of the southern line of the Friendship Pipeline, stopping Russia's crude oil transportation of about 200,000 barrels per day to Hungary and Slovakia. The drone attack on the Ryazan refinery in Russia has also caused its shutdown, affecting crude oil processing volume and refined oil exports. The tense situation between Russia and Ukraine still has a significant impact on the oil market [2] Strategy - Oil prices are expected to be weakly volatile in the short term and bearish in the medium term [3] Risks - Downside risks: The US relaxes sanctions on Russian oil, and macro black - swan events occur [3] - Upside risks: The US intensifies sanctions on Russian oil, and large - scale supply disruptions occur due to conflicts in the Middle East [3]

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the current state of the petrochemical industry in China, highlighting the fluctuations in oil prices and the performance of related ETFs, while emphasizing the strategic responses of domestic oil companies to mitigate risks associated with international oil price volatility [1]. Industry Summary - On August 19, the Shanghai Composite Index stabilized above 3700 points, while the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index opened high but experienced a downward trend [1]. - The petrochemical ETF (159731) followed the index's decline, presenting a low-position investment opportunity [1]. - Short-term geopolitical risks in the Middle East and the Russia-Ukraine conflict persist, along with uncertainties in U.S. tariff policies, leading to expectations of fluctuating oil prices [1]. - In the medium to long term, oil prices are expected to be anchored by fundamentals, with an anticipated oversupply following OPEC+'s accelerated production increases after the peak season [1]. - Domestic oil companies are reducing their performance sensitivity to oil prices through upstream and downstream integration and diversifying their oil and gas sources, while also accelerating the exploration of offshore oil and gas resources to decrease energy dependence on foreign sources [1]. Company Summary - The petrochemical ETF (159731) and its linked funds (017855/017856) closely track the China Petroleum and Chemical Industry Index, which is primarily composed of the basic chemical and petroleum and petrochemical sectors, accounting for over 93% of the index [1]. - The top ten holdings in the index include the "Big Three" oil companies—China National Petroleum, China Petroleum & Chemical, and China National Offshore Oil, which collectively account for over 23% of the index's weight [1].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that oil prices have stabilized and are fluctuating after a decline from high levels, with the market awaiting US-Russia negotiations [1] - Market sentiment is cautious regarding the upcoming negotiations, with a prevailing wait-and-see approach due to differing opinions among investors [1] - As the negotiation date approaches, more details are expected to emerge, indicating that territorial exchanges may complicate the talks, which adds to the difficulty of reaching an agreement [1] Group 2 - In this context, oil prices are showing resilience against declines, with clear support levels observed, suggesting a short-term trend of fluctuation [1]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The report suggests short - term range - bound trading for oil prices and medium - term short - side allocation [3] Group 2: Report's Core View - The significant reduction in Saudi Arabia's crude oil allocation to Chinese buyers in September reflects that Chinese state - owned refiners are optimizing their procurement strategies due to Saudi Arabia's high OSP and high domestic inventories. China's refined oil terminal consumption is sluggish, and crude oil procurement cannot deviate from refinery processing volume and refined oil terminal consumption in the long run [2] Group 3: Summary According to Market News and Important Data - On the New York Mercantile Exchange, the September - delivery light crude oil futures price dropped 79 cents to $63.17 per barrel, a 1.24% decline; the October - delivery Brent crude oil futures price on the London market fell 51 cents to $66.12 per barrel, a 0.77% decline. The SC crude oil main contract closed down 0.83% at 490 yuan per barrel [1] - OPEC raised its forecast for global oil demand next year and lowered its forecast for supply growth from the US and non - OPEC+ producers in its monthly report. In 2026, global oil demand will increase by 1.38 million barrels per day, 100,000 barrels per day higher than the previous forecast. Non - OPEC+ oil supply in 2026 will increase by about 630,000 barrels per day, down from the previous forecast of 730,000 barrels per day. In July, OPEC+ further increased production by 335,000 barrels per day [1] - In the first seven months of 2025, India's oil consumption decreased by 0.5% year - on - year, the second seasonal decline in more than two decades [1] - The EIA lowered its oil price forecast. It expects the average Brent crude oil price in 2025 to be $67.22 per barrel (previously $68.89 per barrel) and in 2026 to be $51.43 per barrel (previously $58.48 per barrel). It expects the average WTI price in 2025 to be $63.58 per barrel (previously $65.22 per barrel) and in 2026 to be $47.77 per barrel (previously $54.82 per barrel) [1] Group 4: Summary According to Strategy - The strategy is short - term range - bound trading for oil prices and medium - term short - side allocation [3] Group 5: Summary According to Risks - Downside risks include the US relaxing sanctions on Russia and macro black - swan events; upside risks include the US tightening sanctions on Russia and large - scale supply disruptions caused by Middle East conflicts [3]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the oil and gas sector, including China National Petroleum Corporation, China National Offshore Oil Corporation, Sinopec, Zhongman Petroleum, and New Natural Gas [4]. Core Insights - OPEC+ has decided to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day in September, completing its plan to restore 2.2 million barrels per day ahead of schedule [1][8]. - The geopolitical landscape is shifting, with the U.S. imposing additional tariffs on Indian goods, which may impact oil supply dynamics [1][8]. - The report suggests monitoring the progress of U.S.-Russia talks, as breakthroughs could lead to short-term oil price declines, while stagnation may keep prices volatile [1][8]. - Brent crude oil price is expected to find solid support at $60 per barrel due to lower-than-expected U.S. production increases [1][8]. Summary by Sections Oil and Gas Price Performance - As of August 7, Brent crude oil futures settled at $66.43 per barrel, down 4.65% week-on-week, while WTI futures settled at $63.88 per barrel, down 5.12% [9][36]. - The NYMEX natural gas futures closed at $3.00 per million British thermal units, down 3.20% week-on-week [44][45]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - U.S. crude oil production decreased to 13.28 million barrels per day, down 30,000 barrels per day week-on-week, while refinery throughput increased to 17.12 million barrels per day, up 210,000 barrels per day [9][10]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories fell by 3.03 million barrels to 42.366 billion barrels as of August 1 [10]. Company Performance - The report highlights that the oil and gas sector has shown resilience, with the CITIC Petroleum and Petrochemical sector rising by 1.3% as of August 8, outperforming the broader market indices [12][15]. - Key companies such as Zhongman Petroleum and New Natural Gas are recommended for their growth potential and resource advantages [11][12]. Market Outlook - The report anticipates that oil prices will remain supported due to ongoing geopolitical tensions and production adjustments by OPEC+ [1][8]. - The overall sentiment in the oil market is cautious, with potential for volatility based on geopolitical developments and economic indicators [1][8].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core View of the Report - Last week, crude oil prices fluctuated widely. Despite a slight recovery during the week, the decline at the beginning and end of the week led to the lowest level in nearly three weeks, with the weekly line recording two consecutive weeks of decline. Considering the current market situation, the long - term expectation of a loose supply side in the commodity attribute will continue to pressure oil prices. Even though inventories have slightly decreased recently, it is difficult to support oil prices due to the relatively pessimistic summer demand outlook. In terms of financial attributes, Powell remains cautious about interest rate cuts, and Trump's tariff policy may turn more aggressive, maintaining overall pressure. Politically, geopolitical situations around the world have not significantly cooled down, but the possibility of escalation is also relatively small, remaining volatile. Therefore, in the short term, oil prices lack clear upward momentum and may continue to fluctuate weakly if there are no significant changes in various factors [63]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Operation Ideas - Last week, oil prices fluctuated widely. Although there was a slight rebound during the week, the decline at the weekend erased most of the gains. It is expected that oil prices will continue to fluctuate widely this week. It is recommended to focus on the price range of [485 - 525] yuan/barrel, mainly engage in short - spread operations within the range, and consider short - selling on rallies. However, due to geopolitical and other factors, the volatility may increase, so it is not advisable to chase the decline excessively [13]. 3.2 Market Review - Last week, oil prices generally showed a wide - range fluctuating trend. During the week, they were affected by long - term interest rate cut expectations, tariff negotiation changes, and geopolitical situations, showing a slight recovery. However, at the weekend, most of the gains were given back, resulting in the lowest level in nearly three weeks, and the weekly line recorded two consecutive weeks of decline [20]. 3.3 Fundamental Analysis 3.3.1 Macro - economic Factors - **Tariff Policy**: Trump plans to set a new "reciprocal tariff rate" system before August 1, with tariff rates ranging from 15% to 50%. Some countries will face a maximum tariff of 50%, and Japan and some EU countries have reached a 15% tariff agreement. This indicates that the Trump administration's tariff policy is becoming more aggressive, which may lead to a more pessimistic market expectation for the results on August 1 [25]. - **Interest Rate Cut Expectation**: The market has a high expectation of an interest rate cut in September, which may have an impact on oil prices [28]. - **Geopolitical Situation**: In the Middle East, the US - Hamas cease - fire negotiation has not made substantial progress, and France's plan to recognize Palestine may ease the situation. In the Russia - Ukraine conflict, the third round of talks did not achieve substantial results, and the relationship between Russia and other countries remains uncertain. Iran and the US will participate in a new round of nuclear negotiations, leaving some room for the Iranian nuclear issue [32]. 3.3.2 Supply - side Factors - **OPEC+ Production**: OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) is expected to maintain the current production increase plan at the meeting on Monday. Eight member countries will increase their total daily production by 548,000 barrels starting from August. Also, there are concerns about restricted Russian oil exports, which may alleviate the long - term expectation of a loose supply side to some extent [36]. - **Russian and Iranian Oil Exports**: Attention should be paid to the changes in Russian and Iranian oil exports, which may affect the global oil supply [37]. - **US Oil Production**: US oil production has slightly decreased [40]. 3.3.3 Demand - side Factors - **Consumption Expectation**: The consumption expectation continues to cool down [43]. - **Manufacturing Industry**: The manufacturing industry remains in a contraction state, which may reduce the demand for oil [46]. - **Refined Oil Production**: The production of refined oil has slightly slowed down [51]. 3.3.4 Inventory Factors - **Crude Oil Inventory**: US crude oil inventories decreased in the week ending July 18, which provides limited support for oil prices under the long - term pressure of a loose supply side [53]. - **Gasoline Inventory**: The decline in US gasoline inventories in the week ending July 18 may support gasoline prices, which will be transmitted to the domestic refined oil market and support the performance of fuel cracking [57]. 3.4 Viewpoint Summary - In the short term, oil prices lack clear upward momentum. If there are no significant changes in various factors, they may continue to fluctuate weakly [63].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive investment outlook for several companies in the oil and gas sector, highlighting their strong earnings certainty and high dividend characteristics [4][12]. Core Insights - Oil prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term, with OPEC+ likely to maintain its current production increase plans, leading to a potential increase of 548,000 barrels per day in September [1][9]. - The report emphasizes the impact of ongoing trade disputes, particularly between the EU and the US, which could affect market dynamics and economic outlook [1][9]. - The US oil production has decreased, while refinery processing rates have increased, indicating a shift in the supply-demand balance [10][11]. Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The OPEC+ Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) is scheduled to meet on July 28, with a separate meeting for eight member countries regarding voluntary production cuts on August 3 [1][9]. - Current market expectations suggest no adjustments to the existing production increase plans, with a full lifting of previous cuts anticipated [1][9]. Market Performance - As of July 25, the Brent crude oil futures price was $68.44 per barrel, down 1.21% week-on-week, while WTI futures settled at $65.16 per barrel, down 3.24% [10][37]. - The report notes a decrease in US crude oil production to 13.27 million barrels per day, a reduction of 100,000 barrels from the previous week [10][11]. Company Performance - The report provides earnings forecasts and valuations for key companies, including: - China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) with a recommended rating and an estimated EPS of 0.90 yuan for 2024 [5]. - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) also recommended, with an estimated EPS of 2.90 yuan for 2024 [5]. - Sinopec (China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation) is highlighted for its high dividend yield and integrated operations [5][12]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with strong resource advantages and robust risk management capabilities, such as PetroChina, CNOOC, and Sinopec [4][12]. - It also recommends monitoring companies in growth phases, like Zhongman Petroleum and New Natural Gas, which are encouraged by domestic policies to increase oil and gas reserves [4][12].

Investment Rating - The report recommends a positive investment outlook for the oil and gas sector, highlighting specific companies with strong performance and dividend potential [12]. Core Insights - OPEC+ is increasing production as planned, with a June 2025 output rise of 458,000 barrels per day, slightly above the target of 411,000 barrels per day, indicating strong production momentum [1][9]. - Major international oil agencies, including EIA and IEA, have raised their forecasts for supply growth in 2025, with EIA adjusting supply and demand growth by 26,000 and 1,000 barrels per day respectively [2][9]. - The report notes a decrease in U.S. crude oil production and refinery processing rates, with production at 13.38 million barrels per day, down by 100,000 barrels from the previous week [3][10]. Summary by Sections Oil Price Performance - As of July 18, 2025, Brent crude futures settled at $69.28 per barrel, a decrease of 1.53% week-on-week, while WTI futures settled at $67.34 per barrel, down 1.62% [10][43]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - EIA forecasts global supply and demand for 2025 at 10,461 million and 10,354 million barrels per day, respectively, indicating a surplus of 1.07 million barrels per day [2][9]. - OPEC's forecast for 2025 non-DOC supply is 6,265 million barrels per day, with global demand at 10,513 million barrels per day, suggesting a supply-demand gap if DOC maintains its production [2][9]. Company Performance and Recommendations - The report highlights specific companies for investment: - China National Petroleum Corporation (PetroChina) with a target PE of 10 for 2024A and a recommendation to buy [5]. - China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) with a target PE of 9 for 2024A and a recommendation to buy [5]. - Sinopec with a target PE of 14 for 2024A and a recommendation to buy [5]. - Zhongman Petroleum with a recommendation to buy due to its growth potential [12]. - New Natural Gas with a recommendation to buy, focusing on its growth phase [12]. Market Trends - The oil and gas sector has shown resilience, with the sector index rising by 1.6% as of July 18, 2025, outperforming the broader market indices [13][18].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information about the industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The overall performance of the energy and chemical commodities market on July 15, 2025, showed a trend of fluctuations. Most varieties are expected to fluctuate in the short - term, and the market is affected by factors such as geopolitical situations, supply - demand relationships, and policy adjustments [1][2][5]. - Crude oil prices dropped on Monday. Trump's statement on the Russia - Ukraine issue led to a price decline. Although Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast for the second half of 2025, the market is still cautious about future policies [1]. - For fuel oil, the low - sulfur fuel oil market structure weakened slightly, and the high - sulfur market remained stable. The LU - FU spread reached a high for the year, but the medium - term supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel oil still exists [1][2]. - The asphalt market's short - term supply decreased, and although the rainy weather affected the terminal construction, the actual demand still had support. It will fluctuate with the cost of crude oil [2]. - In the polyester market, the production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to recover, and the inventory of PTA may accumulate, putting pressure on prices [2][4]. - The import of rubber increased year - on - year, and with the gradual realization of production and rigid demand from downstream tires, rubber prices are under pressure [4]. - For methanol, the load of Iranian plants has recovered, and downstream profits have improved. The price will return to a fluctuating trend [4]. - The supply of polyolefins has limited changes, demand is at the bottom, and the price is expected to fluctuate slightly [5]. - The PVC market price declined, and the corporate start - up rate decreased. Although demand has not improved significantly, the market's upward rebound space is limited [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Research Views - **Crude Oil**: On Monday, the prices of WTI, Brent, and SC2508 all declined. Trump's statement on the Russia - Ukraine issue was seen as a negative signal. Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast for the second half of 2025. The price will fluctuate, and future policies need to be monitored [1]. - **Fuel Oil**: The main contracts of high - sulfur and low - sulfur fuel oil rose on Monday. The market structure of low - sulfur fuel oil weakened slightly, and the high - sulfur market remained stable. It will follow the cost of crude oil and fluctuate. The LU - FU spread has widened, and short - selling opportunities can be considered [1][2]. - **Asphalt**: The main contract of asphalt rose on Monday. The adjustment of the consumption tax deduction policy has not shown an impact. Supply has decreased, and demand has support. It will fluctuate with the cost of crude oil [2]. - **Polyester**: The prices of TA, EG, and PX rose on Monday. The production and sales of polyester yarn in Jiangsu and Zhejiang were weak. The supply of ethylene glycol is expected to recover, and the inventory of PTA may accumulate, putting pressure on prices [2][4]. - **Rubber**: The price of the main contract of Shanghai rubber remained unchanged, and the price of NR decreased. The import of rubber increased year - on - year, and with the gradual realization of production and rigid demand from downstream tires, rubber prices are under pressure [4]. - **Methanol**: The price of methanol will return to a fluctuating trend. The load of Iranian plants has recovered, and downstream profits have improved [4]. - **Polyolefins**: The price of polyolefins is expected to fluctuate slightly. Supply has limited changes, demand is at the bottom, and the demand for agricultural films will increase seasonally [5]. - **Polyvinyl Chloride (PVC)**: The price of PVC decreased. The corporate start - up rate decreased, and although demand has not improved significantly, the upward rebound space is limited [5]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - The report provides the basis data of various energy and chemical products on July 15, 2025, including spot prices, futures prices, basis, basis rate, and their changes [6]. 3.3 Market News - Trump announced new weapons for Ukraine and threatened sanctions on countries buying Russian products if Russia does not agree to a peace agreement within 50 days, causing the oil price to decline [8]. - Goldman Sachs raised its oil price forecast for the second half of 2025, but kept the forecast for 2026 unchanged [8]. 3.4 Chart Analysis - **Main Contract Prices**: The report shows the closing price trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, including crude oil, fuel oil, asphalt, etc [10][11][14]. - **Main Contract Basis**: It presents the basis trends of main contracts of various energy and chemical products from 2021 to 2025, such as crude oil, fuel oil, and asphalt [28][29][30]. - **Inter - period Contract Spreads**: The report shows the spreads of different contracts of various energy and chemical products, such as fuel oil, asphalt, and PTA [44][45][49]. - **Inter - variety Spreads**: It presents the spreads and ratios between different varieties, such as the spread between high - and low - sulfur fuel oil, the ratio of fuel oil to asphalt [65][66]. - **Production Profits**: The report shows the cash flow and production profit trends of ethylene - based ethylene glycol, PP, and LLDPE [72]. 3.5 Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the energy and chemical research team, including their positions, educational backgrounds, honors, and professional experiences [78][79][80]. 3.6 Contact Information - The company's address is in the 6th floor and Unit 703, No. 729 Yanggao South Road, China (Shanghai) Pilot Free Trade Zone. The company's phone number is 021 - 80212222, the fax is 021 - 80212200, the customer service hotline is 400 - 700 - 7979, and the postal code is 200127 [83].