格隆汇12月11日｜财通证券研报指出，招商轮船为全球综合航运龙头，油散双核大船占比高：公司通过 收并购现已构建起了"油气散车集"的综合航运业务架构，单一业务引发的强周期经营风险逐步降低，弱 周期成长型航运平台得以建立。公司现有船舶以自有权益为主（占比91.5%），截至2025年6月， VLCC、VLOC权益数量分别为52艘、37艘（含代管3艘），规模均位列世界第一，好望角船共19艘（含 3艘租赁）。油散共振，LNG步入收获期。当前正值景气周期，公司VLCC在规模及运营优势加持下盈 利弹性领先。中长期来看，需求侧在扩产周期及欧美制裁趋严背景下有支撑，供给侧VLCC新船（在手 订单10.6%）不足以覆盖老船替换需求（21岁及以上船舶占比20%），考虑老船动态拆解及被灰色市场 吸收，合规有效运力净增量或相对有限，景气持续性有望得到支撑。考虑到公司有望迎来油散共振行 情，首次覆盖，给予"增持"评级。 ...

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - The report indicates that pessimistic expectations have been fully released, and the oil and bulk shipping sectors are experiencing a recovery trend [10] - In Q1 2025, the company's operating revenue was 5.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.5%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 870 million yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [5][10] Summary by Sections Business Performance - The container shipping segment benefited from increased freight rates on Southeast Asia routes following the Red Sea incident, leading to a good performance [10] - The oil tanker segment faced pressure due to high base effects from the previous year and lower freight rates at the end of last year, resulting in a decline in performance [10] - The bulk shipping segment saw a decline in freight rates due to disruptions in iron ore and bauxite shipments, with the VLOC fleet maintaining resilience through COA contracts, while Panamax vessels struggled due to low South American grain shipments [10] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q1, the oil shipping business generated revenue of 2.14 billion yuan, down 16.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 490 million yuan, down 44.0% year-on-year [6] - The dry bulk shipping business achieved revenue of 1.68 billion yuan, down 11.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of 160 million yuan, down 55.5% year-on-year [10] - The container shipping business reported revenue of 1.14 billion yuan, up 9.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 340 million yuan, up 222.1% year-on-year [10] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the pessimistic expectations have been fully released, and the industry is on an upward trend, with potential for a synchronized recovery in oil and bulk shipping [10] - Future performance is expected to improve, with projected revenues of 6.3 billion, 6.6 billion, and 7.0 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 7.9, 7.5, and 7.1 times [10]