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招商轮船(601872):悲观预期充分释放,油散景气修复上行
Changjiang Securities· 2025-05-07 13:44
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [7] Core Views - The report indicates that pessimistic expectations have been fully released, and the oil and bulk shipping sectors are experiencing a recovery trend [10] - In Q1 2025, the company's operating revenue was 5.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 10.5%, while the net profit attributable to the parent company was 870 million yuan, down 37.1% year-on-year [5][10] Summary by Sections Business Performance - The container shipping segment benefited from increased freight rates on Southeast Asia routes following the Red Sea incident, leading to a good performance [10] - The oil tanker segment faced pressure due to high base effects from the previous year and lower freight rates at the end of last year, resulting in a decline in performance [10] - The bulk shipping segment saw a decline in freight rates due to disruptions in iron ore and bauxite shipments, with the VLOC fleet maintaining resilience through COA contracts, while Panamax vessels struggled due to low South American grain shipments [10] Revenue and Profit Analysis - In Q1, the oil shipping business generated revenue of 2.14 billion yuan, down 16.3% year-on-year, with a net profit of 490 million yuan, down 44.0% year-on-year [6] - The dry bulk shipping business achieved revenue of 1.68 billion yuan, down 11.4% year-on-year, with a net profit of 160 million yuan, down 55.5% year-on-year [10] - The container shipping business reported revenue of 1.14 billion yuan, up 9.6% year-on-year, and a net profit of 340 million yuan, up 222.1% year-on-year [10] Market Outlook - The report suggests that the pessimistic expectations have been fully released, and the industry is on an upward trend, with potential for a synchronized recovery in oil and bulk shipping [10] - Future performance is expected to improve, with projected revenues of 6.3 billion, 6.6 billion, and 7.0 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, corresponding to PE ratios of 7.9, 7.5, and 7.1 times [10]