油脂油料期货行情
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油脂油料产业日报-20250919
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-09-19 10:35
1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report 2.1 Palm Oil - **International Market**: The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures market maintains a narrow - range oscillatory consolidation trend. Affected by the decline of US soybean oil futures, the Malaysian palm oil hovers around 4,400 ringgit. After a short - term consolidation and stabilization, with potential bullish factors such as slower production growth and increasing exports, the crude palm oil futures may strengthen. If it effectively stands above 4,500 ringgit, an upward oscillatory rally may occur. It's advisable to closely monitor whether it can stand above 4,400 ringgit [3]. - **Domestic Market**: The Dalian palm oil futures market also shows an oscillatory consolidation trend. In the short - term, it will repeatedly test the support of the 60 - day moving average. If the Malaysian palm oil strengthens, the Dalian palm oil futures may follow. After breaking through 9,500 yuan, it may open up new upside space. The overall view is that the near - term contracts are weaker than the far - term ones. It's necessary to closely watch whether it can stand above the 60 - day moving average [3]. 2.2 Soybean Oil Today, the soybean oil futures rebounded due to the rise of rapeseed oil (anti - dumping policy on Canadian rapeseed) and good consumption during the last stage of Mid - Autumn Festival stockpiling. The news of soybean oil exports also provided support. However, the supply is sufficient, and with the upcoming China - US leaders' call, the market is waiting to see if it involves agricultural product purchases, resulting in limited price fluctuations. The January contract is oscillating above 8,300 yuan. If the call reveals China's purchase of US soybeans, the increase in soybean supply in the fourth quarter may drag down the far - term contracts, while the rise of CBOT soybeans may boost the near - term contracts. Otherwise, the January contract will maintain the current narrow - range oscillation [4]. 2.3 Oilseeds (Bean Meal) The bean meal futures once broke through the support level due to the increasing expectation of a China - US trade tariff agreement and weak market reality. But it rebounded slightly during the day under the influence of the sharp rise of rapeseed meal and profit - taking by some institutions. The short - term market is waiting for the guidance of trade negotiations, and the futures price continues to fluctuate around 3,000 yuan. In the spot market, the fixed - price of oil mills increased by 10 - 20 yuan/ton, and the near - term basis remained stable. With high inventory pressure, oil mills are urging customers to pick up goods and even repurchase some contracts. However, due to the weak peak - season consumption and the decline in pig存栏, feed enterprises mainly replenish inventory at low prices. The spot price of bean meal has limited upward momentum and will fluctuate in the range of 2,900 - 3,150 yuan/ton in the short - term [17]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Oil Price and Spread - **Palm Oil Price and Spread**: Palm oil futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) are 9,316 yuan/ton, 9,114 yuan/ton, and 8,792 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 0.13%, 0.07%, and 0.09%. The BMD palm oil main contract is at 4,447 ringgit/ton, up 0.27%. There are also data on price spreads such as P 1 - 5, P 5 - 9, etc. [5][8] - **Soybean Oil Price and Spread**: Soybean oil futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) are 8,328 yuan/ton, 8,052 yuan/ton, and 7,990 yuan/ton respectively, with daily increases of 0.7%, 0.76%, and 0.59%. The CBOT soybean oil main contract is at 51.17 cents/pound, down 1.25%. There are also data on price spreads such as Y 1 - 5, Y 5 - 9, etc. [5][13] 3.2 Oilseed Futures Price and Spread - **Futures Price**: Bean meal futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) are 3,014, 2,786, and 2,899 respectively, with daily increases of 0.7%, 0.76%, and 0.59%. Rapeseed meal futures prices for different contracts (01, 05, 09) are 2,522, 2,387, and 2,454 respectively, with daily increases of 2.11%, 1.27%, and 0.78%. The CBOT yellow soybean is at 1,038.75, with no change [18]. - **Spread**: There are data on spreads such as M01 - 05, M05 - 09, RM01 - 05, etc. For example, M01 - 05 is 228, up 7; RM01 - 05 is 113, up 14 [19][21]
油脂油料产业日报-20250905
Dong Ya Qi Huo· 2025-09-05 09:20
Report Information - Report Title: Oilseeds and Oils Industry Daily Report - Date: September 5, 2025 - Author: Xu Liang (Z0002220) - Reviewer: Tang Yun (Z0002422) Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Core Views Palm Oil - International Market: The Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures were closed for a public holiday and will resume trading next Monday. If the futures can effectively hold above 4,400 ringgit, there is a chance of continued upward movement. With favorable factors such as slower production growth or continued export growth, the futures may continue to rise after breaking through 4,500 ringgit. Otherwise, they may face downward pressure. Attention should be paid to the impact of next week's MPOB supply - demand data and the export data for the first 10 days of September from shipping agencies on the market [3]. - Domestic Market: The Dalian palm oil futures market showed a pattern of opening low and closing high, briefly rising above 9,500 yuan. After a rapid increase, it is expected to consolidate around 9,500 yuan. If it can effectively hold above this level and with the upward movement of Malaysian palm oil, there is a possibility of further upward movement. Attention should be paid to the guidance of Malaysian palm oil prices and whether the futures can hold above 9,500 yuan [3]. Soybean Oil - China - US negotiations have made little progress, and China has not imported US soybeans. As of September 2, the cumulative purchases for September, October, November, and December shipments were 850.2 million tons (100% progress), 706.2 million tons (88.28% progress), 85.5 million tons, and 6.6 million tons (1.47% progress) respectively. China still mainly relies on Brazilian soybeans, with the rest from Argentina and Uruguay. The soybean supply in the fourth quarter is expected to be insufficient, which will support the market. However, the current domestic soybean oil supply is still ample, and the international vegetable oil market has been affected by the pressure on crude oil (possible OPEC production increase). The increase of Dalian soybean oil futures is limited. The main January contract should first see if it can break through 8,500 yuan. If it does, the market will move further up; otherwise, it may return to around 8,300 yuan [4]. Oil Price Spreads - The report provides price spreads for various oil contracts, including P 1 - 5, P 5 - 9, Y - P 01, etc., along with their price changes and percentage changes [5]. Oil Futures and Spot Prices - Palm Oil: The report shows the prices and price changes of palm oil futures contracts (P 01, P 05, P 09) and spot prices in Guangzhou, as well as related spreads such as POGO and international毛豆 - 毛棕 [8]. - Soybean Oil: The prices and price changes of soybean oil futures contracts (Y 01, Y 05, Y 09), CBOT soybean oil futures, and Shandong soybean oil spot prices and spreads are presented [14]. Meal - Bean Meal: In a situation of weak current market conditions and strong future expectations, the main contract of Dalian bean meal futures fluctuated around 3,050 yuan. The spot market trading was slow, with oil mills' fixed - price quotes stable and near - month basis quotes down 10 - 20 yuan/ton. Due to low vehicle flow at the beginning of the month, slow trading, and increasing inventory pressure, some oil mills lowered prices to boost sales. End - users' inventories are safe due to rolling replenishment, and they are mainly fulfilling contracts. The short - term spot price is under pressure [18]. - Futures Prices: The report provides the closing prices, price changes, and percentage changes of bean meal (M 01, M 05, M 09), rapeseed meal (RM 01, RM 05, RM 09), CBOT soybeans, and the offshore RMB exchange rate [19]. - Meal Price Spreads: Price spreads between different bean meal and rapeseed meal contracts, as well as between bean meal and rapeseed meal, are provided, along with their price changes [20][22]. Pressing Profits - The report presents the international soybean pressing profits (US Gulf CNF and Brazilian CNF) and the pressing profits of imported rapeseed from Canada [35].