证券日报网1月21日讯，招商轮船（601872）在接受调研者提问时表示，2026年VLCC等油轮运价波动 预计会较2025年更加剧烈，诸多结构性问题和短期供需不平衡可能导致现货运价短期出现大幅波动。目 前看，今年油轮市场的景气程度有望比2025年提升，改善动力预计来自合规市场需求的结构性增长，运 力端如果出现有效整合将有望进一步助力景气提升。2026年初，公司看到地缘风险的上升，亚洲原油进 口的长程化继续、印度减少部分地区原油进口、石油储备需求增加等均可能推动运价上行。另外近期韩 国船东Sinokor等行业玩家的动向值得高度关注，有可能导致VLCC油轮市场集中度的进一步提升和运作 模式的变化，对油轮市场供给结构、运费形成机制等均会产生重大影响，中长期影响也可能被市场低 估，从公司的角度看，目前这个变化似乎还没有引起大家足够重视。总体来看，需求方面，今年不论是 全球原油消费或储备需求并不悲观，预计整体需求有所提升，原油海运需求通常会好于原油需求增速； 供给方面，总体偏紧的情况持续，市场上实际可用的有效运力增长预计缓慢。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The tanker sector is experiencing a strong clearing of capacity options, with high ship prices likely to suppress capacity additions in the long term, leading to a tightening supply trend. Current geopolitical instability, including sanctions and conflicts, may drive freight rates higher in the short to medium term [1]. Group 1: Freight Rate Analysis - From January to April, VLCC-TCE freight rates increased from approximately $30,000/day to around $40,000/day due to intensified U.S. sanctions on Russian and Iranian oil. Although rates fell at the end of June, they rebounded above $40,000/day in mid-August following renewed sanctions on Iran [1]. Group 2: Supply and Demand Framework - Supply establishes the cycle direction, while demand influences market conditions. Historical trends show that major market movements are often driven by supply shortages, with demand contributing to the upward momentum [2]. Group 3: Demand Side Analysis - In the first half of 2025, the average operating rate of major refineries in China was 76.25%, down 0.96 percentage points year-on-year. The operating rate of Shandong local refineries was 46.49%, down 9.13 percentage points year-on-year, leading to a decline in crude oil demand. However, there are long-term upward options for demand due to OPEC+ members' agreement to gradually release 2.2 million barrels/day, which may further drive down oil prices and stimulate transportation demand [3]. Group 4: Supply Side Analysis - As of July 2025, there were 2,337 registered crude oil tankers with a total capacity of 465 million deadweight tons. The proportion of tankers over 15 years old reached 41.82%, and those over 20 years old accounted for 19.63%. High ship prices, averaging $126 million for VLCCs, discourage new orders, and stringent environmental regulations may accelerate the clearing of older vessels, potentially leading to a situation where new capacity does not offset the clearing of older capacity [4]. Group 5: Event-Driven Factors - The U.S. has intensified sanctions on vessels involved in transporting Russian and Iranian oil, with 471 tankers sanctioned, representing 17.55% of the total fleet capacity. Historical data indicates that increased sanctions often lead to significant freight rate increases, ranging from 38% to 142%. Additionally, geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East have historically resulted in freight rate spikes, as seen during past conflicts. Current tensions between the U.S. and Russia, as well as between the U.S. and Iran, warrant close monitoring of potential short-term impacts on tanker rates [5].