Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report is that Huayuan Securities has given a "buy" rating for COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd. (600026.SH) with a latest price of 10.64 yuan [1] - The reasons for the rating include a short-term performance pressure due to a year-on-year decline in tanker route revenue, while the contribution from LNG business is increasing [1] - The report highlights that OPEC+ production increase is beneficial for VLCC, and freight rates are expected to remain strong [1] - The company has received approval from the CSRC for its private placement application [1]

Group 1: Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendations for Container Shipping - The shipping companies have released the freight rates for the first half of September, and the spot prices in the off - season continue to decline. On August 21, EC2510 closed at 1325 points, down 2.21% from the previous day. The SCFI European line reported on August 15 was $1820/TEU, down 7.2% month - on - month. The second - phase settlement index of EC2508 released after the market on Monday was 2180.17 points, down 2.5% month - on - month, slightly exceeding market expectations due to some ship delays. It is expected that the decline of SCFIS will widen in the future. Under the pressure of tariffs in the second half of the year, the support for off - season freight rates is expected to weaken, and competition among shipping companies is expected to intensify compared with the first half of the year [4]. - In terms of spot freight rates, the current decline in cargo volume and sufficient shipping capacity supply have accelerated the decline of spot freight rates, and the end - of - month center is approaching below 2500. The demand side has seen a decline in peak - season cargo volume, and the impact of tariff policies on the shipping rhythm needs to be noted this year. The supply side shows that the monthly average weekly shipping capacity from Shanghai to Northern Europe in August, September, and October 2025 is 303,100/295,900/272,800 TEU respectively. The overall shipping capacity has slightly decreased compared with the previous week's schedule. The 08 contract's valuation has been slightly revised upwards due to ship delays and skipped containers, and the impact of ship delays and skipped containers on the third - phase index will be reduced [5]. - Trading strategies: Unilateral trading should be weak and volatile; for arbitrage, conduct rolling operations on the 10 - 12 reverse spread at low levels [6][7]. Group 2: Industry News for Container Shipping - Eurozone's July CPI annual rate final value is 2%, in line with expectations; the core CPI annual rate final value is 2.4%, in line with expectations; the CPI monthly rate final value is 0%, in line with expectations [9]. - The US Treasury Secretary said that the US and China had a "very good dialogue" on economic and trade issues, and he expects another meeting before November [9]. - The Israeli military's plan to attack Gaza City has been approved by the defense minister, and about 60,000 reserve call - up orders have been issued. The Israeli military officials expect to finalize the attack plan in the next few days. The Iranian Defense Minister said that if the enemy continues malicious acts, Iran's response will be destructive and unexpected. The Iranian Foreign Minister said that Iran has not reached the mature stage for "effective" nuclear negotiations with the US [9][10]. Group 3: Market Analysis and Outlook for Dry Bulk Shipping - On August 20, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index (BDI) fell for the third consecutive day to 1927 points, down 1.88% from the previous day, the lowest level since August 5. The Capesize ship freight index fell 156 points, or 5.2%, to 2867 points, and the daily average profit of Capesize ships fell $1294 to $23,778. The Panamax ship freight index rose 28 points, or 1.7%, to 1665 points, and the daily average profit of Panamax ships rose $248 to $14,985. The Supramax bulk carrier freight index rose 19 points, or 1.4%, to 1388 points [10]. - On August 20, the freight rate of the Capesize ship iron ore route from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was $23.48/ton, down 2.19% month - on - month; the freight rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was $9.04/ton, down 1.69% month - on - month. As of August 15, the freight rate of the Capesize ship coal route from Hay Point, Australia to Qingdao was $11.90/ton, down 4.80% from the previous week; the freight rate from Hay Point, Australia to Rotterdam was $19.90/ton, down 1.49% from the previous week. The freight rate of the Capesize ship bauxite route from Guinea to Yantai was $25.50/ton, up 2.82% from the previous week [12]. - From August 11 to August 17, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume was 34.066 million tons, an increase of 3.599 million tons month - on - month. The total shipping volume of iron ore from Australia and Brazil was 27.56 million tons, an increase of 2.257 million tons month - on - month. In August 2025, Brazil's soybean export volume is expected to reach 8.9 million tons, and the corn export volume is expected to reach 8.05 million tons [14]. - Yesterday, there were not many cargoes in the two major markets of Capesize ships, the available shipping capacity in the market increased, the bearish sentiment rose, and the freight rates continued to decline. In the Panamax ship market, there were not many coal and grain cargoes, and the shipowners' quotes were relatively firm, with a slight increase in freight rates. In the large - ship market, it is expected that the cargo volume in mid - to - late September will decline compared with late August, and the short - term freight rates will be under pressure. In the medium - ship market, the short - term grain transportation demand lacks obvious growth. Although the coal demand from power plants provides some support for the medium - ship freight rates, it is expected that the support will gradually weaken after the end of August [15]. Group 4: Industry News for Dry Bulk Shipping - In July 2025, Japan imported 15.73 million tons of coal, a year - on - year increase of 6%, and the coal import value was 294.911 billion yen ($1.995 billion), a year - on - year decrease of 28.5% [16]. - The US Soybean Association strongly urged the Trump administration to reach an agreement to reopen the Chinese market for US soybeans [16]. Group 5: Market Analysis and Outlook for Tanker Shipping - On August 20, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was 1010, up 1.1% month - on - month and 9.78% year - on - year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was 616, up 0.65% month - on - month and down 5.52% year - on - year. Recently, the crude oil market and the refined oil market have shown different trends. The crude oil market is generally stable and improving, with the VLCC market maintaining stable freight rates due to shipowners' price support and tight shipping capacity supply. In the refined oil market, the BCTI has continued to decline, and the imbalance between supply and demand still exists. In the short term, attention should be paid to the impact of the concentrated booking of Middle - East routes in September on subsequent freight rates, and in the long term, attention should be paid to the impact of environmental protection elimination and supply - demand reshaping on freight rates [19]. Group 6: Industry News for Tanker Shipping - As of the week ending August 20, Singapore's fuel oil inventory decreased by 1.61 million barrels to 23.035 million barrels, the lowest level in 8 weeks [20]. - India will continue to buy Russian oil despite US pressure, and the foreign ministers of Russia and India will discuss strengthening strategic partnership in Moscow [20].