大宗商品研究所 航运研发报告 航运日报 2025 年 08 月 21 日 | | | | 航运日报 | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 第一部分 | | | | 集装箱航运——集运指数（欧线） | | | | | | | | 银河期货集运指数（欧线） | 日报 | | | | | | | | | 期货盘面 | | | | | 期货合约 | 收盘价 | 涨跌 | 涨跌幅 | 成交量（手） | 增减幅 | 持仓量(手) | 增减幅 | | EC2508 | 2,125.0 | 2.0 | 0.09% | 156.0 | -4.29% | 2,060.0 | -5.03% | | EC2510 | 1,325.0 | -30.0 | -2.21% | 35,008.0 | 27.31% | 54,293.0 | 4.96% | | EC2512 | 1,721.4 | -54.5 | -3.07% | 7,519.0 | 50.44% | 12,209.0 | 5.16% | | EC2602 | 1,513.0 | -19.0 ...

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The spot market for container shipping is in a downward trend, and the EC futures market is expected to remain weakly volatile. The dry bulk shipping market has seen a decline in the Baltic Dry Index due to falling freight rates for Capesize vessels, while the tanker market shows a divergence between the crude oil and refined oil sectors [6][14][22]. Summary by Directory Part I: Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (Europe Line) Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - **Market Performance**: On August 20, the EC2510 contract closed at 2123 points, down 0.2% from the previous day. The SCFI Europe Line reported on August 15 was $1820/TEU, down 7.2% month-on-month. The second-phase settlement index of EC2508 reported on Monday was 2180.17 points, down 2.5% month-on-month, slightly exceeding market expectations [6]. - **Logic Analysis**: With the decline in cargo volume and sufficient capacity supply, spot freight rates are accelerating their decline. The tariff policy has put pressure on the market, and geopolitical factors such as the Israel-Palestine ceasefire negotiations may affect the far - month contracts [7]. - **Trading Strategy**: Unilateral trading should expect a weak and volatile market. For arbitrage, consider rolling operations on the 10 - 12 reverse spread at low levels [8][9]. Industry News - Trump believes there is a good chance to stop the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The US added 407 product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list. Korea's KMTC ordered 4 container ships and returned to the Trans - Pacific route [11]. Part II: Dry Bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - **Market Performance**: The Baltic Dry Index fell to a two - week low on Tuesday due to falling Capesize vessel freight rates. The Capesize vessel freight index and daily earnings decreased, while the Panamax vessel freight index and daily earnings increased slightly [14]. - **Spot Rates**: On August 19, the Capesize vessel iron ore route rates from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao and from Western Australia to Qingdao decreased. Weekly data showed mixed trends for different routes [15]. - **Shipping Data**: From August 11 - 17, the global iron ore shipment volume increased, and Brazilian soybean and corn shipments showed certain growth compared to the same period last year [17]. - **Logic Analysis**: The Capesize vessel market has few cargoes and weak market sentiment, while the Panamax vessel market has limited coal and grain cargoes. The short - term freight rates of large - sized vessels are under pressure, and the support for medium - sized vessel freight rates from coal transportation demand is expected to weaken [18]. Industry News - The iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil decreased slightly. The US added product categories to the steel and aluminum tariff list. A coal - laden bulk carrier explosion closed the main channel of the Baltimore Port [19]. Part III: Tanker Transportation Market Analysis and Outlook - **Market Performance**: On August 19, the BDTI was 999, down 1.58% month - on - month and up 8.0% year - on - year. On August 18, the BCTI was 612, up 1.16% month - on - month and down 4.38% year - on - year [22]. - **Logic Analysis**: The crude oil market is stable, with VLCC and Aframax vessel freight rates supported by tight capacity. The refined oil market has an imbalance between supply and demand, and short - term and long - term factors need to be monitored [22]. Industry News - The refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE decreased. India's imports of Russian crude oil decreased in July, and state - owned refineries will seek alternative sources in August and September [23][24]. Part IV: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts showing the trends of container shipping, dry bulk shipping, and tanker transportation indices and freight rates over different time periods [26][37][43].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints The report analyzes the container shipping, dry bulk shipping, and oil tanker transportation markets. It suggests that the container shipping market (EC) will experience weak and volatile trends, and recommends a 10 - 12 reverse arbitrage strategy with low - level rolling operations. The dry bulk shipping market is expected to see short - term pressure on large - vessel freight rates and a gradual weakening of medium - vessel freight rate support. The oil tanker transportation market shows a divergence between the crude oil and refined oil markets, with the crude oil market remaining stable and the refined oil market facing supply - demand imbalances [6][19][23]. 3. Summary by Directory Container Shipping - Container Freight Index (Europe Line) - **Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation**: On August 19, EC2510 closed at 1370.3 points, down 0.2% from the previous day. The SCFI Europe Line on August 15 was $1820/TEU, down 7.2% month - on - month. The second - phase settlement index of EC2508 released after Monday's trading was 2180.17 points, down 2.5% month - on - month, expected to decline further. Spot freight rates are falling due to reduced cargo volume and sufficient capacity. The market is expected to be weak and volatile, and a 10 - 12 reverse arbitrage strategy can be used for low - level rolling operations [6][7][8]. - **Industry News**: There are various geopolitical news such as statements from Zelensky and Trump regarding the Russia - Ukraine war, and news about the Israel - Hamas cease - fire negotiation [11][12][13]. Dry Bulk Shipping - **Market Analysis and Outlook**: The Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index declined on Monday. The Capesize vessel freight index decreased, while the Panamax vessel freight index increased slightly. The spot freight rates of Capesize vessels for iron ore routes decreased on August 18, and the weekly freight rates of some coal and bauxite routes also changed. The iron ore and grain shipment data showed different trends. The large - vessel market may see relatively good but declining transportation demand in early - mid September, and the medium - vessel market's freight rate support from coal and grain transportation is expected to weaken [16][17][19]. - **Industry News**: The iron ore inventory at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil decreased slightly, and the iron ore inventory at Chinese ports increased [20]. Oil Tanker Transportation - **Market Analysis and Outlook**: On August 18, the Baltic Crude Oil Transportation Index BDTI was 1015, down 0.1% month - on - month and up 8.09% year - on - year. The Baltic Product Oil Transportation Index BCTI was 605, unchanged month - on - month and down 2.89% year - on - year. The crude oil market is stable, while the refined oil market has supply - demand imbalances. Short - term attention should be paid to the impact of concentrated bookings on Middle - East routes in September, and long - term attention to factors like environmental elimination and supply - demand reshaping [23]. - **Industry News**: The US may impose additional tariffs on Indian goods due to its import of Russian oil, and there was a statement from Trump about not currently planning to impose tariffs on Chinese goods for buying Russian oil [24]. Related Attachments The report includes various charts related to container shipping, dry bulk shipping, and oil tanker transportation, such as SCFIS and SCFI indices, freight rate indices, and vessel earnings charts [27][29][32].

Group 1: Market Analysis of Container Shipping - The peak of the peak - season freight rate has passed. Mainstream shipping companies have successively lowered their spot quotes for August, causing the EC futures market to fluctuate weakly. On July 29, EC2510 closed at 1460 points, down 2.85% from the previous day's close. The latest SCFIS European Line index released after Monday's trading was 2316.56 points, down 3.5% month - on - month, indicating a decline in spot freight rates [4]. - Spot freight rates show a divergence in quotes among mainstream shipping companies. Most shipping companies except MSC have either maintained or lowered their freight rates for the first half of August. The demand side is affected by tariff policies during the traditional peak season from July to August. The supply side shows that the average weekly capacity in July, August, and September 2025 is 264,200, 289,900, and 296,600 TEU respectively, with a slight decline in July and September compared to the previous week's schedule. The ship schedule in September is still abundant [5]. - Regarding tariffs, Trump extended the tariff exemption period to August 1st. The US has finalized tariffs of about 19 - 20% on Vietnam, Indonesia, and the Philippines, and 15% on the EU and Japan. The Sino - US negotiation has been extended for 90 days, and the cease - fire negotiation in the Israel - Palestine conflict is in progress [5]. Group 2: Trading Strategies for Container Shipping - Unilateral trading: It is expected that the futures market will remain weak. This week, the market is expected to be disturbed by macro - events such as tariff negotiations. For EC2510, some short positions can be closed for profit and some can be rolled over. The overall strategy is to short on rallies [6]. - Arbitrage: Conduct rolling operations on the 10 - 12 reverse spread [7]. Group 3: Industry News for Container Shipping - The US Secretary of Commerce said that the EU will pay a 15% tariff, with a few small commodities excluded. Trump will consider several agreements this week and then determine the tax rates [8]. - Trump said that the US will announce tariffs on drugs in the near future, and global tariffs will be around 15 - 20% [10]. - Trump expressed disappointment with Putin and is considering giving Russia less than two weeks to reach a cease - fire agreement [11]. - The Canadian Prime Minister claimed that the trade negotiation with the US is in a tense stage [12]. - A Dutch bank analyst said that it is unrealistic for the EU to purchase $750 billion worth of US energy products in three years without a significant increase in energy prices [12]. - Netanyahu said that Israel will continue to fight until the hostages are released and Hamas is defeated, and will cooperate with international institutions and the US and European countries to ensure the entry of a large amount of aid supplies into the Gaza Strip [13]. - The Iranian Foreign Minister said that if the aggression occurs again, Iran will respond more resolutely [13]. - Two senior assistants of Netanyahu went to the US on Sunday and will hold talks with White House officials on Iran and Gaza issues this week [13]. Group 4: Market Analysis of Dry Bulk Shipping - The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) fell on Monday due to the decline in freight rates of all ship types. The BDI dropped 31 points, or 1.37%, to 2226 points. The Capesize Index fell 55 points or 1.4% to 3774 points, and the Panamax Index dropped 40 points, or 2.2%, to 1798 points, the lowest since July 10th [16]. - On July 28, the freight rate of the Capesize iron ore route from Tubarao, Brazil to Qingdao was $24.59/ton, down 0.65% month - on - month, and the rate from Western Australia to Qingdao was $10.25/ton, down 0.34% month - on - month. As of July 25, the weekly freight rates of some Capesize coal and bauxite routes increased, while some Panamax coal routes decreased [17]. - From July 21st to July 27th, 2025, the total global iron ore shipments were 32.009 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 918,000 tons. In the fourth week of July 2025, a total of 10.4472 million tons of soybeans were loaded, with an average daily loading volume of 549,900 tons/day, a 12.41% increase compared to July last year [18]. - The Capesize ship market had few inquiries on the previous day, and the overall market was calm at the beginning of the week, with freight rates falling slightly. The demand for grain transportation in the Panamax ship market weakened, and although there were some coal cargoes released, the market capacity increased, resulting in a slight decline in freight rates [19]. Group 5: Industry News for Dry Bulk Shipping - Typhoon "Bamboo Grass" is expected to move northwest at a speed of 10 - 15 km/h, gradually intensify, and make landfall on the coast from Sanmen, Zhejiang to Qidong, Jiangsu between noon and evening on the 30th [20]. - China - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm on July 28th. Trump said that the US is very close to reaching an agreement with China [21]. - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 47 ports in China was 142.8173 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 1.0683 million tons. The total inventory of iron ore at seven major ports in Australia and Brazil was 13.549 million tons, a week - on - week decrease of 696,000 tons [21]. Group 6: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple graphs, including those related to container shipping such as SCFIS European and US - West lines, SCFI comprehensive index, and container freight rates of different routes; and those related to dry bulk shipping such as BDI, BPI, BCI, and BSI indices, as well as BDTI and BCTI [22][26][35][38][39].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping market shows significant price fluctuations in futures contracts, with some contracts rising sharply. The spot freight rate peak appears later than expected, and the 08 contract's basis is gradually being repaired. Attention should be paid to tariff negotiations and market booking conditions [2][4]. - The dry - bulk shipping market has seen an overall increase in freight rates. The large - ship market is expected to stop falling and recover, while the medium - ship market is expected to have a slightly stronger and volatile freight rate [16][22]. - In the oil tanker transportation market, the BDTI has declined recently. Considering the refinery maintenance period in the second quarter and weak demand, the impact of market sentiment changes on freight rates needs to be monitored [26]. Summary by Directory Container Shipping Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - Futures contracts: On July 15, EC2510 had a significant increase of 14.92%, with a large increase in trading volume. The 08 contract is approaching delivery, and the basis is gradually being repaired [2]. - Spot freight rates: The latest SCFIS European line reported 2421.94 points, a week - on - week increase of 7.3%. MSK's WK31 Shanghai - Rotterdam opening price remained flat compared to the previous period [2][4]. - Tariffs: Trump proposed to impose 100% secondary tariffs on Russia if the Russia - Ukraine conflict is not resolved within 50 days, and may impose secondary sanctions on countries buying Russian oil. The US is also considering increasing tariffs on other countries, which may affect the shipping market [4][5]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: Short EC2510 at high prices [8]. - Arbitrage: Conduct rolling operations on the 10 - 12 reverse spread [8]. Industry News - Multiple countries are involved in tariff negotiations and counter - measures, and the cease - fire negotiation in the Gaza Strip is ongoing, which may impact the shipping market [9][11]. Dry - bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - Freight rate index: The Baltic Dry Index rose to a four - week high, with all ship - type freight rates increasing. The Capesize ship freight rate index rose by 12.5%, and the Panamax ship freight rate index reached its highest level since June 18 last year [16]. - Spot freight rates: On July 14, the freight rate of the Brazil - Qingdao iron ore route for Capesize ships increased by 2.08% week - on - week. The weekly freight rates of some coal and grain routes also showed varying degrees of increase [17]. - Shipping data: From July 7 - 13, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume decreased slightly, while the shipping volume from Australia and Brazil increased. The grain shipping volume in July 2025 was lower than that of the same period last year [19]. - Import and export data: In June 2025, China's steel exports decreased month - on - month, while imports also decreased. Iron ore imports increased month - on - month, and coal imports decreased. Soybean imports decreased month - on - month but increased year - on - year [20]. Industry News - Indonesia plans to shorten the mining quota validity period from three years to one year starting in 2026. The iron ore inventory at major ports in Australia and Brazil has increased [23]. Oil Tanker Transportation Market Analysis and Outlook - Freight rates: On July 14, the BDTI reported 927, a week - on - week decrease of 0.22%, and the BCTI reported 548, a week - on - week increase of 0.37%. Due to the refinery maintenance period in the second quarter, demand is relatively weak [26]. Industry News - Trump's new tariffs may exempt energy products. An explosion occurred at a production facility in an oil field in Canada, and there have been multiple engine shutdown incidents on Indian flights [27][28]. Related Attachments - The report provides multiple charts, including those related to container shipping, dry - bulk shipping, and oil tanker transportation freight rates and indices, to visually display market trends [31][32][41]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The container shipping market is in a state of high - low price game. The spot freight rate center is gradually rising, and the 7 - 8 month is expected to reach the peak of the peak season. However, due to the impact of the tariff trade war, the height of the freight rate should not be overestimated. The dry bulk shipping market is expected to be weak in the large - ship market in the short term and the medium - ship market is expected to be volatile and strong. The oil tanker transportation market is affected by geopolitical conflicts, and the short - term freight rate increase is mainly due to the geopolitical conflict premium [5][17][21]. 3. Summary by Directory Container Shipping Market Analysis - On July 2, the EC contract on the futures market generally showed a downward trend, with a significant decline in trading volume. The spot container freight rates of different routes showed different trends, with the SCFIS European line increasing and the SCFIS US - West line decreasing. The spot freight rate center has gradually increased, but the freight rate should not be overestimated due to the tariff trade war. The 7 - 8 month is in the stage of increasing supply and demand, and the freight rate is expected to reach the peak of the peak season [2][5]. Trading Strategies - Unilateral: The market is in a volatile state. The subsequent EC2512 can be considered to adopt the idea of buying on dips. - Arbitrage: Conduct rolling operations on the 10 - 12 reverse spread [5][6]. Dry Bulk Shipping Market Analysis - On July 1, the Baltic Dry Bulk Freight Index continued to decline for the fifth consecutive trading day to near a one - month low, mainly due to the decline in demand for cape - size ships. The spot freight rates of different routes showed different trends, and the short - term large - ship market is expected to be weak, while the medium - ship market is expected to be volatile and strong [13][17]. Data Support - From June 23 to June 29, 2025, the global iron ore shipping volume decreased, and the expected export volume of Brazilian grains in June also changed. The inventory of major ports in Australia and Brazil decreased, and the inventory of imported iron ore in 47 ports in China also decreased [16][18]. Oil Tanker Transportation Market Analysis - On July 1, the Baltic crude oil transportation index BDTI and the refined oil transportation index BCTI both declined. Recently, the escalation of geopolitical conflicts has boosted the sentiment of the oil transportation market, and the VLCC freight rate has jumped significantly. In the short term, the increase in freight rates is mainly due to the geopolitical conflict premium, and the impact of market sentiment changes on freight rates needs to be further observed [20][21]. Industry Information - As of the week of June 30, the refined oil inventory in the Port of Fujairah in the UAE increased. The domestic refined oil retail price limit has experienced "three consecutive increases", but the new cycle starts with a negative change rate of crude oil, and the market sentiment is wait - and - see [22].

Report Overview - The report is a shipping research report by the Commodity Research Institute, covering container shipping, dry bulk shipping, and tanker transportation [1][10][28] Group 1: Container Shipping Market Analysis and Strategy Recommendation - The 08 main contract of the container shipping index (European line) continued to strengthen significantly on May 13, with EC2508 closing at 1896 points, up 5.69% from the previous day's close [5] - The SCFIS European line reported 1302.62 points on May 13, down 5.54% month-on-month, and the SCFI European line reported $1161/TEU on May 9, down 3.25% month-on-month [5] - The spot freight rate bottom is gradually emerging. After the tariff reduction, the US line rush shipment starts to raise prices first. The European line disk anticipates first, and then the follow-up focus returns to the spot. The short-term near-month disk is expected to fluctuate at a high level [7] - Hold the 8-10 positive spread, 6-10 positive spread, and 10-12 negative spread [8] Industry News - The EU welcomes the substantial progress and important consensus reached in the China-US economic and trade high-level talks, hoping to reduce trade barriers and support the stability and predictability of global trade and investment [9][10][11] - US tariff revenue in April reached $16 billion, a surge of $9 billion or 130% from the same period last year [11] Group 2: Dry Bulk Shipping Market Analysis and Outlook - On May 12, the Baltic Dry Bulk Composite Freight Index ended its four consecutive trading days of decline. The BDI rose 0.38% to 1304 points, the BCI rose 1.29% to 1731 points, the BPI fell 0.81% to 1342 points, and the BSI rose 0.10% to 970 points [15] - On May 12, the freight rates of the Cape-sized ship iron ore routes, Brazil Tubarao - Qingdao (BCI-C3) and Western Australia - Qingdao (BCI-C5), were reported at $18.36/ton and $7.56/ton, up 0.80% and 0.93% month-on-month respectively [16] - The dry bulk shipping market lacks obvious incremental transportation demand, with more supply of shipping capacity, and the freight rates are under pressure. The international dry bulk freight market is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [17] Industry News - From May 5 to May 11, the total iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil were 24.225 million tons, a decrease of 1.179 million tons month-on-month. The global iron ore shipments were 30.29 million tons, a decrease of 0.215 million tons month-on-month [18] - The analysis institution APK - Inform lowered the forecast of Ukraine's 2025 grain harvest by 3.8% to 55.3 million tons and the grain export forecast for the 2025/26 season by 4% to 40.9 million tons [18] - Indonesia's coal exports from January to April decreased by more than 10% year-on-year, hitting a new low for the same period in three years [19] Group 3: Tanker Transportation Market Analysis and Outlook - On May 12, the Baltic Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) was reported at 991, down 0.40% month-on-month and 14.50% year-on-year. The Baltic Clean Tanker Index (BCTI) was reported at 574, up 0.17% month-on-month and down 45.54% year-on-year [22] - OPEC+ started to gradually increase production by 411,000 barrels per day in May, which may increase the global seaborne demand for crude oil. The concentrated outflow of cargoes in late April and early May supported the VLCC ship market, and the impact of the cargo release rhythm on freight rates needs further attention [22] Industry News - As of May 12, the domestic refined oil social unit diesel storage capacity utilization rate was 30.35%, up 0.02% from the end of last month [23] - US President Trump hopes to obtain a $1 trillion investment commitment from Saudi Arabia, but this goal may face huge obstacles [23][24] - After the China-US trade negotiation, the market showed an unexpectedly positive trend, but the oil price subsequently fell back, and the market atmosphere remained cautious [24]