以黄金、白银、铜为代表的有色金属板块近期迎来一轮行情，其涨幅让"周期"字眼成为市场瞩目的焦 点。然而，在汇丰晋信基金的基金经理郑小兵看来，市场的喧嚣往往伴随着风险。他认为，当前部分热 门有色品种的行情可能已行至中后期，自己会保持谨慎。但这并不意味着他看淡周期，恰恰相反，在他 看来，"万物皆可周期"，以周期的视角审视，中国市场正涌现出越来越多的投资机遇。 近期，拟由郑小兵管理的汇丰晋信周期优选基金正在发行。这位身上带有鲜明"左侧"与"深度研究"标签 的基金经理，希望将自己淬炼的系统性框架应用于更广阔的"泛周期"领域。他不再局限于传统的有色、 化工等狭义周期，而是旨在通过一套四维度投资框架——宏观定方向、产业趋势定行业、个股权衡安全 与弹性、市场情绪定买卖点——去主动优选那些处于周期底部、具备高性价比的机会，在市场的认知分 歧中，安静地做一名价值的"摆渡人"。 四维框架下的坚守 郑小兵的投资世界，有一套严密且经过市场验证的四层架构支撑。 首先是宏观定方向。这在于判断全球经济所处的"水位"，为其投资提供大的背景板。在他的分析中，对 2026年的展望细致拆解了美国、欧洲、中国的经济现状。例如，他认为美国经济短期面临下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the non-ferrous metals sector, represented by gold, silver, and copper, has drawn market attention, but there are concerns about potential risks as some hot commodities may be nearing the mid-to-late stage of their cycles. However, there are still emerging investment opportunities in the Chinese market from a cyclical perspective [1] Group 1: Investment Framework - The investment strategy is based on a four-dimensional framework: macroeconomic direction, industry trend analysis, stock selection based on safety and elasticity, and market sentiment for buy/sell points [2] - The macroeconomic analysis focuses on the global economic "water level," with specific insights into the economic conditions of the US, Europe, and China, predicting short-term downward pressure on the US economy while China is undergoing structural transformation [2] - Industry comparison is a critical component, where the focus is on identifying industries with upward turning points that are currently undervalued, considering factors like return on equity (ROE), price-to-book (PB) ratios, and trading crowding [2] Group 2: Stock Selection - Stock selection emphasizes two main criteria: sufficient safety margin and upward elasticity. The approach involves setting a clear price tolerance line to manage downside risk while focusing on companies with strong profit elasticity [3] - The investment style is characterized by a "left-side trader" approach, where buying occurs when market attention is low, and selling happens before market euphoria peaks [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Timing - The investment philosophy revolves around capturing value recovery in the early stages of market sentiment cycles, with a notable example being the strategic positioning in the innovative drug sector during a period of low institutional holdings [3][4] - The approach to gold stocks in 2023 involved significant purchases at historically low valuations, leading to substantial performance contributions, followed by timely reductions in holdings as market speculation increased in 2025 [4] Group 4: Sector Focus - The current hot non-ferrous metals market is analyzed through two phases: initial price increases driven by risk aversion and recent gains fueled by expectations of global liquidity easing. There is a cautionary note regarding potential price corrections as many commodities are seen as deviating from their fundamentals [4][5] - The investment outlook for the aviation sector is optimistic, driven by a fundamental shift in demand from business travel to personal consumption, alongside supply constraints and favorable cost dynamics [5] - Brand consumption and manufacturing are also key areas of focus, with many domestic brands showing significant improvements in governance and efficiency, poised to benefit from a potential inventory replenishment phase as overseas brands reduce stock levels [6] - The Hong Kong stock market is viewed as a significant value opportunity, particularly for quality companies in the internet sector that have strong safety margins and are well-positioned to leverage AI technology [6]

对比来看，2025年末从均衡打法转向赛道聚焦的基金当中，有相当大比例为"迷你"产品。 强化产品进攻性、走赛道化布局路线，已成为基金保障合同存续和实现规模扩容的关键路径。在对业绩 与规模取得双赢验证后，同类产品的赛道化策略已成为业内教科书式案例，吸引着不少小微基金主动摒 弃均衡打法，聚焦单一高景气赛道以提升净值弹性，从而开启业绩突围与规模跃升双主线。 刚刚披露完毕的公募基金四季报显示，一批小微基金的规模在较短时间内从千万元升破10亿元甚至100 亿元，上百倍的规模扩张背后正是产品进攻特征的极致演绎。 小微基金打破均衡发力赛道化 目前，不少小微产品的基金经理正努力做减法，确保深耕一两个赛道，而不再是广泛涉足多个行业。 基金赛道化布局的业绩红利持续释放，正推动更多产品主动调整持仓逻辑。在见证赛道化打法取得业绩 与规模的双赢局面后，越来越多的小微产品开始放弃均衡打法，转而重点布局某一行业来提升产品净值 的高弹性。比如，根据最新披露的2025年四季报持仓信息，融通明锐混合基金在去年末大幅提升产品净 值的进攻性，该产品此前以个股精选为主，重仓股曾涵盖各类行业，包括德昌电机控股、泡泡玛特、新 易盛、移远通信等标的，不过整体 ...

Group 1: Investment Strategy Overview - The core investment themes for 2026 identified by Ping An Fund are technological innovation and the supply-demand rebalancing of cyclical goods [1] - The focus in the technology sector is on hardware innovation driven by rapid growth in global AI capital expenditure and investment opportunities in the domestic semiconductor industry [1] - In the cyclical sector, attention is on commodities like chemicals and industrial metals, which are expected to benefit from good supply constraints and moderate demand recovery [1] Group 2: Market Outlook and Economic Drivers - The outlook for 2026 anticipates continued policy support, moderate economic recovery, ample liquidity, and improving internal and external environments, which are expected to drive market performance [1] - Compared to 2025, the driving forces for market growth in 2026 are expected to shift more towards profit-driven and industry catalysts [1] Group 3: Product Development and Asset Allocation - Ping An Fund has developed a comprehensive public fund product system categorized into "fixed income+", active equity, and ETFs, aimed at providing one-stop asset allocation solutions [2] - The "fixed income+" segment is further divided into four risk levels to meet varying investor preferences, while the active equity segment includes a three-tier directory system for stock selection and thematic investments [2] Group 4: AI and Infrastructure Investment - The AI infrastructure investment is not yet at a bubble stage, with historical peaks in capital expenditure typically reaching 3%-4% of GDP, while 2026's AI capital expenditure is expected to remain below this threshold [2] - The investment strategy in the AI sector for 2026 focuses on global capital expenditure trends and domestic opportunities, particularly in storage supply chains and optical communication sectors [2] Group 5: Commodity and Market Trends - The dual expectations of "expansive fiscal" and "expansive monetary" policies are anticipated to drive a sustained boom in upstream resource products and a reversal in the manufacturing sector, presenting new opportunities in cyclical sectors [3] - The AI technology revolution is expected to increase capital expenditure on new infrastructure, providing strong support for commodity prices, particularly in the copper and aluminum industries [3] Group 6: ETF Product Innovation - Ping An Fund has established a comprehensive ETF product matrix covering various categories, including broad-based, thematic, and bond ETFs, with several industry-first innovations [4] - The ETF offerings include the first domestic AI-themed ETF and the first new energy vehicle ETF, catering to a wide range of risk preferences from aggressive to conservative investors [4]