以黄金、白银、铜为代表的有色金属板块近期迎来一轮行情，其涨幅让"周期"字眼成为市场瞩目的焦 点。然而，在汇丰晋信基金的基金经理郑小兵看来，市场的喧嚣往往伴随着风险。他认为，当前部分热 门有色品种的行情可能已行至中后期，自己会保持谨慎。但这并不意味着他看淡周期，恰恰相反，在他 看来，"万物皆可周期"，以周期的视角审视，中国市场正涌现出越来越多的投资机遇。 近期，拟由郑小兵管理的汇丰晋信周期优选基金正在发行。这位身上带有鲜明"左侧"与"深度研究"标签 的基金经理，希望将自己淬炼的系统性框架应用于更广阔的"泛周期"领域。他不再局限于传统的有色、 化工等狭义周期，而是旨在通过一套四维度投资框架——宏观定方向、产业趋势定行业、个股权衡安全 与弹性、市场情绪定买卖点——去主动优选那些处于周期底部、具备高性价比的机会，在市场的认知分 歧中，安静地做一名价值的"摆渡人"。 四维框架下的坚守 郑小兵的投资世界，有一套严密且经过市场验证的四层架构支撑。 首先是宏观定方向。这在于判断全球经济所处的"水位"，为其投资提供大的背景板。在他的分析中，对 2026年的展望细致拆解了美国、欧洲、中国的经济现状。例如，他认为美国经济短期面临下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the non-ferrous metals sector, represented by gold, silver, and copper, has drawn market attention, but there are concerns about potential risks as some hot commodities may be nearing the mid-to-late stage of their cycles. However, there are still emerging investment opportunities in the Chinese market from a cyclical perspective [1] Group 1: Investment Framework - The investment strategy is based on a four-dimensional framework: macroeconomic direction, industry trend analysis, stock selection based on safety and elasticity, and market sentiment for buy/sell points [2] - The macroeconomic analysis focuses on the global economic "water level," with specific insights into the economic conditions of the US, Europe, and China, predicting short-term downward pressure on the US economy while China is undergoing structural transformation [2] - Industry comparison is a critical component, where the focus is on identifying industries with upward turning points that are currently undervalued, considering factors like return on equity (ROE), price-to-book (PB) ratios, and trading crowding [2] Group 2: Stock Selection - Stock selection emphasizes two main criteria: sufficient safety margin and upward elasticity. The approach involves setting a clear price tolerance line to manage downside risk while focusing on companies with strong profit elasticity [3] - The investment style is characterized by a "left-side trader" approach, where buying occurs when market attention is low, and selling happens before market euphoria peaks [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Timing - The investment philosophy revolves around capturing value recovery in the early stages of market sentiment cycles, with a notable example being the strategic positioning in the innovative drug sector during a period of low institutional holdings [3][4] - The approach to gold stocks in 2023 involved significant purchases at historically low valuations, leading to substantial performance contributions, followed by timely reductions in holdings as market speculation increased in 2025 [4] Group 4: Sector Focus - The current hot non-ferrous metals market is analyzed through two phases: initial price increases driven by risk aversion and recent gains fueled by expectations of global liquidity easing. There is a cautionary note regarding potential price corrections as many commodities are seen as deviating from their fundamentals [4][5] - The investment outlook for the aviation sector is optimistic, driven by a fundamental shift in demand from business travel to personal consumption, alongside supply constraints and favorable cost dynamics [5] - Brand consumption and manufacturing are also key areas of focus, with many domestic brands showing significant improvements in governance and efficiency, poised to benefit from a potential inventory replenishment phase as overseas brands reduce stock levels [6] - The Hong Kong stock market is viewed as a significant value opportunity, particularly for quality companies in the internet sector that have strong safety margins and are well-positioned to leverage AI technology [6]

Core Viewpoint - The colored metal sector, represented by gold, silver, and copper, has experienced significant price increases since 2025, making "cycles" a market focus. However, caution is advised as some popular colored metal varieties may be in the mid-to-late stages of their market cycle, indicating potential risks. Despite this, the market is presenting numerous investment opportunities through a cyclical lens [1][9]. Investment Framework - The investment strategy is supported by a four-dimensional framework: macroeconomic direction, industry trend analysis, individual stock selection based on safety and elasticity, and market sentiment for buy/sell points. This approach aims to identify high-value opportunities at the bottom of the cycle [1][12]. - The macroeconomic analysis includes a detailed outlook for 2026, highlighting the short-term downward pressure on the U.S. economy and the ongoing structural transformation in China [3][12]. - Industry comparisons focus on identifying sectors poised for upward trends that are currently undervalued, considering factors like ROE percentiles, PB percentiles, and trading crowding [3][12]. Stock Selection - Stock selection emphasizes two key criteria: sufficient safety margins and growth potential. The strategy involves setting clear price tolerance levels to manage downside risk while prioritizing companies with strong earnings elasticity [4][13]. - The investment style is characterized by a "left-side" trading approach, where purchases are made when market attention is low, and sales occur before market euphoria peaks [4][13]. Market Sentiment and Timing - The investment philosophy includes capturing value recovery during the early stages of market sentiment cycles. For instance, investments in the innovative drug sector were made when institutional holdings were at historical lows, followed by timely exits as market sentiment improved [5][14]. - The current hot market for colored metals is viewed with caution, as prices may have deviated significantly from fundamentals, suggesting a likelihood of mean reversion [6][15]. Sector Opportunities - The investment focus includes sectors like aviation, which is experiencing a fundamental shift in demand due to trends such as "silver-haired travel" and family tourism. Supply constraints and potential cost reductions in oil prices further support a positive outlook for aviation stocks [8][17]. - Brand consumption and manufacturing are also highlighted, with many domestic brands showing improvements in governance and efficiency. The anticipated end of the inventory cycle for overseas brands may trigger demand for Chinese supply chains and brands [8][17]. - The Hong Kong stock market is seen as a value opportunity, particularly in internet companies that possess strong safety margins and are well-positioned to benefit from advancements in AI technology [8][17].

Core Viewpoint - The colored metal sector, represented by gold, silver, and copper, has experienced significant price increases since 2025, drawing attention to the cyclical nature of the market. However, caution is advised as some popular colored metals may be in the later stages of their market cycle. The manager of HSBC Jintrust Fund, Zheng Xiaobing, believes that while there are risks, there are also numerous investment opportunities emerging from a cyclical perspective [1]. Group 1: Investment Framework - Zheng Xiaobing employs a four-dimensional investment framework: macroeconomic direction, industry trends, stock selection based on safety and elasticity, and market sentiment for buy/sell points. This comprehensive approach allows for proactive selection of undervalued opportunities at the bottom of the cycle [2][3]. - The macroeconomic analysis focuses on the global economic "water level," with specific insights into the economic conditions of the US, Europe, and China. Zheng anticipates short-term downward pressure on the US economy while noting China's deepening economic structural transformation [2]. Group 2: Stock Selection and Market Sentiment - Stock selection is central to Zheng's strategy, emphasizing sufficient safety margins and growth potential. He sets clear price tolerance lines to manage downside risks while valuing companies with strong earnings elasticity. This approach leads to a concentrated portfolio in his managed funds [3]. - Market sentiment plays a crucial role in determining buy/sell points. Zheng aims to buy when market attention is low and sell before market euphoria peaks, reflecting his investment philosophy of "cognitive transformation" [3]. Group 3: Cyclical Opportunities - Zheng Xiaobing's investment style is characterized by early positioning in undervalued sectors, as demonstrated by his strategic moves in the innovative drug sector and gold stocks. He capitalized on low valuations in 2023 and adjusted his positions as market conditions evolved [4][5]. - Current trends in colored metals are viewed with caution, as Zheng identifies two phases of gold price increases: initially driven by monetary safe-haven attributes and more recently by expectations of global liquidity easing. He warns that some commodity prices may have deviated significantly from their fundamentals, suggesting a likely mean reversion [5]. Group 4: Sector Focus - Zheng is optimistic about the aviation sector, citing a fundamental shift in demand structure towards personal travel, which is expected to remain resilient. Supply constraints and potential cost declines further support his positive outlook on aviation stocks [7]. - The brand consumption and manufacturing sectors are also on Zheng's radar, as many domestic brands have improved in governance and efficiency. He anticipates a recovery in inventory cycles for overseas brands, benefiting Chinese supply chains and brands poised for global expansion [7]. - Zheng views the Hong Kong stock market as a significant value opportunity, particularly in internet companies that possess strong safety margins and are well-positioned to leverage AI technology in a rapidly evolving landscape [7].