以黄金、白银、铜为代表的有色金属板块近期迎来一轮行情，其涨幅让"周期"字眼成为市场瞩目的焦 点。然而，在汇丰晋信基金的基金经理郑小兵看来，市场的喧嚣往往伴随着风险。他认为，当前部分热 门有色品种的行情可能已行至中后期，自己会保持谨慎。但这并不意味着他看淡周期，恰恰相反，在他 看来，"万物皆可周期"，以周期的视角审视，中国市场正涌现出越来越多的投资机遇。 近期，拟由郑小兵管理的汇丰晋信周期优选基金正在发行。这位身上带有鲜明"左侧"与"深度研究"标签 的基金经理，希望将自己淬炼的系统性框架应用于更广阔的"泛周期"领域。他不再局限于传统的有色、 化工等狭义周期，而是旨在通过一套四维度投资框架——宏观定方向、产业趋势定行业、个股权衡安全 与弹性、市场情绪定买卖点——去主动优选那些处于周期底部、具备高性价比的机会，在市场的认知分 歧中，安静地做一名价值的"摆渡人"。 四维框架下的坚守 郑小兵的投资世界，有一套严密且经过市场验证的四层架构支撑。 首先是宏观定方向。这在于判断全球经济所处的"水位"，为其投资提供大的背景板。在他的分析中，对 2026年的展望细致拆解了美国、欧洲、中国的经济现状。例如，他认为美国经济短期面临下 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in the non-ferrous metals sector, represented by gold, silver, and copper, has drawn market attention, but there are concerns about potential risks as some hot commodities may be nearing the mid-to-late stage of their cycles. However, there are still emerging investment opportunities in the Chinese market from a cyclical perspective [1] Group 1: Investment Framework - The investment strategy is based on a four-dimensional framework: macroeconomic direction, industry trend analysis, stock selection based on safety and elasticity, and market sentiment for buy/sell points [2] - The macroeconomic analysis focuses on the global economic "water level," with specific insights into the economic conditions of the US, Europe, and China, predicting short-term downward pressure on the US economy while China is undergoing structural transformation [2] - Industry comparison is a critical component, where the focus is on identifying industries with upward turning points that are currently undervalued, considering factors like return on equity (ROE), price-to-book (PB) ratios, and trading crowding [2] Group 2: Stock Selection - Stock selection emphasizes two main criteria: sufficient safety margin and upward elasticity. The approach involves setting a clear price tolerance line to manage downside risk while focusing on companies with strong profit elasticity [3] - The investment style is characterized by a "left-side trader" approach, where buying occurs when market attention is low, and selling happens before market euphoria peaks [3] Group 3: Market Sentiment and Timing - The investment philosophy revolves around capturing value recovery in the early stages of market sentiment cycles, with a notable example being the strategic positioning in the innovative drug sector during a period of low institutional holdings [3][4] - The approach to gold stocks in 2023 involved significant purchases at historically low valuations, leading to substantial performance contributions, followed by timely reductions in holdings as market speculation increased in 2025 [4] Group 4: Sector Focus - The current hot non-ferrous metals market is analyzed through two phases: initial price increases driven by risk aversion and recent gains fueled by expectations of global liquidity easing. There is a cautionary note regarding potential price corrections as many commodities are seen as deviating from their fundamentals [4][5] - The investment outlook for the aviation sector is optimistic, driven by a fundamental shift in demand from business travel to personal consumption, alongside supply constraints and favorable cost dynamics [5] - Brand consumption and manufacturing are also key areas of focus, with many domestic brands showing significant improvements in governance and efficiency, poised to benefit from a potential inventory replenishment phase as overseas brands reduce stock levels [6] - The Hong Kong stock market is viewed as a significant value opportunity, particularly for quality companies in the internet sector that have strong safety margins and are well-positioned to leverage AI technology [6]

Core Viewpoint - The colored metal sector, represented by gold, silver, and copper, has experienced significant price increases since 2025, making "cycles" a market focus. However, caution is advised as some popular colored metal varieties may be in the mid-to-late stages of their market cycle, indicating potential risks. Despite this, the market is presenting numerous investment opportunities through a cyclical lens [1][9]. Investment Framework - The investment strategy is supported by a four-dimensional framework: macroeconomic direction, industry trend analysis, individual stock selection based on safety and elasticity, and market sentiment for buy/sell points. This approach aims to identify high-value opportunities at the bottom of the cycle [1][12]. - The macroeconomic analysis includes a detailed outlook for 2026, highlighting the short-term downward pressure on the U.S. economy and the ongoing structural transformation in China [3][12]. - Industry comparisons focus on identifying sectors poised for upward trends that are currently undervalued, considering factors like ROE percentiles, PB percentiles, and trading crowding [3][12]. Stock Selection - Stock selection emphasizes two key criteria: sufficient safety margins and growth potential. The strategy involves setting clear price tolerance levels to manage downside risk while prioritizing companies with strong earnings elasticity [4][13]. - The investment style is characterized by a "left-side" trading approach, where purchases are made when market attention is low, and sales occur before market euphoria peaks [4][13]. Market Sentiment and Timing - The investment philosophy includes capturing value recovery during the early stages of market sentiment cycles. For instance, investments in the innovative drug sector were made when institutional holdings were at historical lows, followed by timely exits as market sentiment improved [5][14]. - The current hot market for colored metals is viewed with caution, as prices may have deviated significantly from fundamentals, suggesting a likelihood of mean reversion [6][15]. Sector Opportunities - The investment focus includes sectors like aviation, which is experiencing a fundamental shift in demand due to trends such as "silver-haired travel" and family tourism. Supply constraints and potential cost reductions in oil prices further support a positive outlook for aviation stocks [8][17]. - Brand consumption and manufacturing are also highlighted, with many domestic brands showing improvements in governance and efficiency. The anticipated end of the inventory cycle for overseas brands may trigger demand for Chinese supply chains and brands [8][17]. - The Hong Kong stock market is seen as a value opportunity, particularly in internet companies that possess strong safety margins and are well-positioned to benefit from advancements in AI technology [8][17].

【导读】汇丰晋信基金总经理李选进：坚守长期主义，让投资更简单 "让投资更简单"——汇丰晋信基金总经理李选进指着公司成立时的牌匾说。回顾二十年发展历程，他感 慨万千。 "公司创立时，就确立了'让投资更简单'的初心。"李选进介绍道，这一理念背后，承载着公司对提升投 资者体验的追求。要实现这一目标，仅凭短期业绩远远不够，必须着眼于投资者的长期需求，并致力于 构建一套持久、可持续的投资体系。 二十年的公司发展，让李选进愈发笃信"长期坚持"才是正途。行业浪潮翻涌不息，有时为了坚守理念， 必须有所取舍，有所为、有所不为。对于汇丰晋信基金来说，"坚持"不仅是一句口号，而是深深融入公 司产品体系、投研方法与投资者服务之中的具体实践。 作为行业发展的亲历者，李选进也分享了他对公募基金行业未来发展的思考。他认为，资产管理行业必 须清楚认识到，这是场比耐力的"马拉松"。无论是投资还是服务，都应该看得更长远。基金从业者必须 明确自身的价值所在——为投资者创造价值，为他们实现人生目标提供财富管理"解决方案"。 守正不移廿载路 行稳致远长期心 谈及汇丰晋信基金过去二十年的发展历程，李选进将其总结为一个关键词——坚持。在他眼中，这 份"坚 ...

【导读】汇丰晋信基金总经理李选进：坚守长期主义，让投资更简单 中国基金报记者 曹雯璟 "让投资更简单"——汇丰晋信基金总经理李选进指着公司成立时的牌匾说。回顾二十年发展 历程，他感慨万千。 "公司创立时，就确立了'让投资更简单'的初心。"李选进介绍道，这一理念背后，承载着公司 对提升投资者体验的追求。要实现这一目标，仅凭短期业绩远远不够，必须着眼于投资者的 长期需求，并致力于构建一套持久、可持续的投资体系。 照片拍摄：曹雯璟 二十年的公司发展，让李选进愈发笃信"长期坚持"才是正途。行业浪潮翻涌不息，有时为了 坚守理念，必须有所取舍，有所为、有所不为。对于汇丰晋信基金来说，"坚持"不仅是一句 口号，而是深深融入公司产品体系、投研方法与投资者服务之中的具体实践。 作为行业发展的亲历者，李选进也分享了他对公募基金行业未来发展的思考。他认为， 资产 管理行业必须清楚认识到，这是场比耐力的"马拉松"。无论是投资还是服务，都应该看得更 长远。基金从业者必须明确自身的价值所在——为投资者创造价值，为他们实现人生目标提 供财富管理"解决方案"。 守正不移廿载路 正是这份"坚持"，使得汇丰晋信基金在公募基金行业竞争日趋激烈的当 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent performance of small and micro-cap stocks has been strong, driven by favorable fundamentals and liquidity easing, leading to significant gains in related indices [1][3]. Group 1: Market Performance - Small and micro-cap stocks have outperformed larger indices, with the CSI 2000 and Guozheng 2000 indices rising by 18.55% and 15.28% respectively since April 7, significantly exceeding the gains of the Shanghai and Shenzhen indices [3]. - The North Star 50 index, which focuses on "specialized, refined, unique, and innovative" companies, has surged over 36% during the same period, while the Wind micro-cap index has reached a historical high [3]. Group 2: Fund Dynamics - Several thematic funds have seen rapid increases in net asset value, leading to limited capacity for new investments, prompting some funds to restrict new subscriptions [2][5]. - The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has issued a plan to enhance the performance benchmarks for public funds, which may influence fund managers to favor indices like CSI 800 or CSI 1000 over the CSI 2000, impacting small-cap stock allocations [2][7]. Group 3: Investment Strategies - Fund managers are increasingly focusing on small-cap stocks, identifying opportunities in sectors such as new energy and innovative pharmaceuticals, which are expected to outperform larger companies during economic recovery [4]. - The current market environment, characterized by liquidity easing and a rebound in risk appetite, is seen as favorable for small-cap stocks, with expectations of continued support from monetary policy [4][6]. Group 4: Fund Management Challenges - The rapid inflow of funds into small-cap focused strategies has led to some funds reducing their positions due to capacity constraints, as seen with the reduction of subscription limits for certain funds [5][6]. - Fund managers are cautious about maintaining optimal strategies amidst rising stock prices, which may lead to a decrease in portfolio allocations even with new inflows [6][8].