Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the potential visit of US President Trump to China later this year, which may involve a delegation of CEOs, similar to his previous trip to the Middle East that resulted in over $2 trillion in deals [1]. Group 1: Market Performance - Despite a pullback in A-shares, the Shanghai Composite Index remains above 3400 points, influenced by geopolitical events and Federal Reserve discussions on interest rates [3]. - The recent three-day rally in the Shanghai Composite Index is attributed to a significant drop in annualized volatility, reaching a near ten-year low of 18.2% [6]. - The current market conditions suggest that a bull market in A-shares has not yet fully materialized, with weak fundamental expectations and fragmented capital flows [10]. Group 2: Monetary Policy and Economic Outlook - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) has expressed confidence in the economy's improvement and is focusing on supporting technology innovation and consumption [11]. - There are expectations for potential interest rate cuts, with some institutions predicting a 20 basis point reduction in the second half of the year [11]. Group 3: Sector Analysis - The non-bank financial sector saw the highest net inflow of capital, amounting to 372.22 billion yuan, followed by the computer and electronics sectors [26]. - The current industry cycle indicates that textiles, light manufacturing, and chemicals are in a recession phase, while computer, communication, and defense industries are expanding [30]. - The agricultural, non-ferrous metals, and machinery sectors are identified as having high growth potential with low valuations, warranting further research [31]. Group 4: Notable Developments - Neuralink, a company under Elon Musk, has announced plans for brain-computer interface advancements, aiming for human-AI connectivity by 2028 [15]. - Tesla has successfully demonstrated fully autonomous delivery of a Model Y vehicle to a customer, marking a significant milestone in self-driving technology [16]. - The Chinese government is pushing for advancements in domestic chip manufacturing, with major investment funds focusing on overcoming technological barriers [17].

证券研究报告·策略报告·策略周评 策略周评 20250628 指数突破新高后，市场怎么走？ 2025 年 06 月 28 日 [Table_Summary] ◼ 近期市场呈现三大现象 现象一：沪指"三连阳"创年内新高后，资金急于寻找理由，但找到的理 由似乎都不足以解释这轮上涨。 现象二：上周（6/16-6/20，下同）路演交流中，明显感受到机构投资者偏 谨慎，港股部分本土及海外资金在今年新消费和医药行情中都有踏空。 现象三：情绪急剧反转，"三根阳线改变信仰"。上周投资者倾向落袋为安， 待回调再介入，但市场快速上涨后又转为乐观。 ◼ 核心解释框架：波动率的回归交易 怎么去解释近期市场的这三大现象？投资者们总是习惯于在市场上涨后， 从基本面中寻找能够解释走势的原因，然而这些原因似乎又都不够充分， 不足以支撑起股市的上行。事实上，真正导致本轮上涨的，是大家普遍低 估的一个要素——波动率。我们认为，本周（6/23-6/27，下同）沪指的"三 连阳"，本质上是波动率回归交易的结果。周一收盘时，上证指数 30 个交 易日的年化波动率降至 18.2%，创下近十年来新低，甚至低于 2018 年。市 场极端低波的状态，才是本轮 ...