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研究员：聂嘉怡(股指) 021-60635735 niejiayi@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F03124070 研究员：何卓乔(宏观贵金属) 18665641296 hezhuoqiao@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3008762 研究员：黄雯昕(宏观国债集运) 021-60635739 huangwenxin@ccb.ccbfutures.com 期货从业资格号：F3051589 宏观金融团队 报告类型 股指日评 日期 2025 年 9 月 25 日 请阅读正文后的声明 ＃summary＃ 每日报告 一、行情回顾与后市展望 1.1 行情回顾： 9 月 24 日，万得全 A 低开后震荡上行，半导体板块表现强势，午后券商板块 异动带动指数进一步走高，全 A 收涨 1.40%，近 4500 支个股上涨；指数现货方面， 沪深 300、上证 50、中证 500、中证 1000 收盘分别上涨 1.02%、0.68%、1.99%、 1.70%。大盘蓝筹指数期货表现整体弱于现货，中小盘煮熟期货表现整体强于现货， IF、IH、IC、IM 主力合约分别收涨 1.03%、 ...

Group 1: Report Information - Report Type: Stock Index Daily Review [1] - Date: September 5, 2025 [2] - Researchers: Nie Jiayi, He Zhuoqiao, Huang Wenxin [3] Group 2: Market Review - Wanquan A Index: Fell for three consecutive trading days, with today's decline further expanding. It opened slightly higher and then oscillated lower. Sectors such as computing power, CPO, and military industry accelerated their decline as funds took profits. In the afternoon, sectors such as banks and securities companies showed abnormal movements, driving a slight recovery in the index at the end of the session. The index closed down 2.02%, with more than 50% of stocks falling [6]. - Index Spot: CSI 300, SSE 50, CSI 500, and CSI 1000 closed down 2.12%, 1.71%, 2.48%, and 2.30% respectively [6]. - Index Futures: IF, IH, IC, and IM main contracts closed down 1.82%, 1.67%, 2.09%, and 1.95% respectively (calculated based on the previous trading day's closing price), performing stronger than the spot market overall [6]. Group 3: Market Outlook - External Market: Federal Reserve Governor Waller and Atlanta Fed President Bostic reiterated their views on interest rate cuts, increasing the expectation of a rate cut in September. Attention should be paid to the subsequent implementation and the expectation of consecutive rate cuts in the fourth quarter [8]. - Domestic Market: Economic data in July showed a weakening on both the supply and demand sides. Currently, the economic fundamentals are under pressure, but the expectation of future recovery under the "anti - involution" policy remains strong [8]. - Liquidity: The margin trading balance rebounded slightly yesterday and remains at a historical high. Observe the subsequent changes in margin trading funds [8]. - Long - term: Stocks are still favored in the context of the concepts of "East rising, West falling" and "Technology narrative" [8]. - Short - term: After the expectation on September 3 was fulfilled, market volatility increased, and the market is currently in an oscillating correction trend. The CSI 300 (IF) and SSE 50 (IH) contracts may perform relatively better. One can try to go long on IF and short on IM to resist market corrections [8]. Group 4: Industry News - Trump asked the US Supreme Court to uphold his global tariff policy and seek a review of the case. The Trump administration asked the Supreme Court to expedite the hearing process and hold a debate in early November [32]. - The central bank conducted 212.6 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations on September 4 at a fixed interest rate through quantity bidding, with an operating interest rate of 1.40%. The bid volume, winning bid volume were both 212.6 billion yuan. Wind data showed that 416.1 billion yuan of reverse repurchases matured on the same day, resulting in a net withdrawal of 203.5 billion yuan [32].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant opportunities arising from the current global landscape, particularly highlighting the competition between China and the United States as a driving force for innovation and investment in technology [4][5][9]. Group 1: Global Opportunities - The current era is characterized by unprecedented changes, presenting a "once in 500 years" opportunity with the rise of China and the decline of the West [5]. - The primary opportunities in the global market are centered around two major players: China and the United States, with AI being the main focus in the U.S. and "AI+" in China [6][7]. - The competition between China and the U.S. is seen as a grand drama of the century, where technological advancements are spurred by this rivalry [9][10]. Group 2: Entrepreneurship and Investment - Entrepreneurship is likened to a modern-day examination system, where success can significantly alter one's fate and social status [15][16]. - Investment is viewed as a means of identifying and nurturing promising ventures, with a current challenging environment serving as a period of reshuffling in the market [18][19]. - The article suggests that the current market conditions present a favorable time for investments, particularly in the primary market, as great companies often emerge during downturns [21][22]. Group 3: Adaptability and Resilience - The ability to survive and thrive in changing environments is crucial, with a focus on adaptability rather than sheer strength [22]. - Investment firms are encouraged to understand the needs of state-owned enterprises and adapt their strategies accordingly to survive [23][24]. - The article stresses the importance of maintaining a positive mindset and resilience in the face of challenges, advocating for a long-term perspective in business endeavors [34][35][37]. Group 4: Collaboration and Learning - The article promotes the idea of collaboration and learning from stronger competitors, suggesting that joining forces can lead to greater strength [43]. - It highlights the importance of continuous learning and adaptation in entrepreneurship, encouraging a mindset of being "on the road" and ready to pivot when necessary [46][47]. - The upcoming event in Sichuan is presented as an opportunity for entrepreneurs to engage in deep learning and networking, aimed at fostering innovation and growth [56][70].

Core Viewpoint - The article emphasizes the significant opportunities arising from the current global landscape, particularly highlighting the competition between China and the United States as a defining feature of this century, with a focus on technology and innovation as key investment areas [4][5][9]. Group 1: Global Opportunities - The current era is characterized by unprecedented changes, presenting a major opportunity described as "the rise of the East and the fall of the West" [5]. - The two main global opportunities are centered around China and the United States, with AI being the main focus in the U.S. and a combination of artificial intelligence and other technologies in China [6][7]. - The competition between China and the U.S. is seen as a dramatic narrative of the century, driving technological advancements and civilizational progress [9][10]. Group 2: Entrepreneurship and Investment - Entrepreneurship is likened to a modern-day examination system, where success can significantly alter one's fate and social standing [16]. - Investment is viewed as a means of identifying and promoting promising ventures, with a current challenging environment serving as a period of reshuffling in the market [18]. - The article suggests that the current market conditions present a favorable time for investments, particularly in the primary market, as great companies often emerge during downturns [21][22]. Group 3: Adaptability and Resilience - The ability to survive and thrive in changing environments is emphasized, with a focus on adaptability rather than sheer strength [22]. - The article encourages investment firms to understand the needs of state-owned enterprises and adapt their strategies accordingly to survive [23]. - It highlights the importance of leveraging the benefits of the digital age while managing its challenges [25]. Group 4: Long-term Vision and Mindset - A long-term perspective is advocated, with a focus on the year 2035 as a potential turning point for China [34]. - The article stresses the importance of maintaining faith in national progress and innovation in AI, suggesting that belief influences financial success [36]. - It encourages a mindset of perseverance and continuous effort, emphasizing that many challenges will eventually become mere memories [37][38]. Group 5: Collaboration and Learning - The article promotes the idea of collaboration among entrepreneurs, suggesting that learning from stronger competitors can lead to growth [43]. - It highlights the importance of maintaining a proactive and adaptable mindset, encouraging entrepreneurs to stay engaged and ready to pivot as needed [45]. - The upcoming event in Sichuan is presented as an opportunity for entrepreneurs to connect, learn, and explore new growth engines [47][56].

Group 1 - The article discusses the significant changes in the global environment, highlighting the unprecedented opportunities presented by the "East Rising, West Falling" phenomenon [4][5] - It emphasizes that the main opportunities in the world are centered around two major players: China and the United States, with other regions being less significant [4][6] - The competition between China and the U.S. is portrayed as a dramatic narrative of the century, driving technological advancements and cultural evolution [7][8] Group 2 - The article posits that entrepreneurship is akin to a modern-day examination, capable of altering one's fate and social status, while investment serves as a means of identifying promising ventures [14][15] - It notes that the current period is both challenging and a time for restructuring within the entrepreneurial and investment landscape, suggesting that great companies often emerge during downturns [16][17] - The article encourages investors to seize opportunities in the primary market during this period of low interest [19] Group 3 - It highlights the importance of adaptability, suggesting that survival is not about being the strongest but about being the most adaptable to changing conditions [20][21] - The article advises investment firms to understand the needs of state-owned enterprises and to develop new skills in fundraising and investment management [22] Group 4 - The article asserts that strong individuals do not complain about their environment, while weaker ones do, promoting a mindset of resilience and survival [25][27] - It encourages a long-term perspective in investments, with a focus on the potential benefits by 2035 [30][31] Group 5 - The article promotes a proactive approach to challenges, suggesting that joining forces with stronger entities can lead to growth and improvement [41] - It concludes with an invitation for entrepreneurs to engage in a learning journey, emphasizing the importance of continuous growth and investment in promising projects [43][44]

Group 1 - The current bull market is characterized as a "confidence bull" driven by significant policy easing, abundant liquidity, and a new wave of technological revolution, marking it as a once-in-a-decade opportunity [4][8][13] - Since September 2024, the bull market has seen substantial gains, with the Shanghai Composite Index rising 45% from its low of 2690, and the ChiNext Index increasing by 79%, indicating a strong market recovery [5][7] - The market capitalization has surged from 70 trillion to 100 trillion, creating a wealth effect of 30 trillion, which is significant for the overall economy [7][8] Group 2 - Three main drivers of the current bull market include continuous policy easing, a new technological revolution, and ample liquidity, which together create a robust "confidence bull" [8][13] - The policy shift since September 2024 has led to a historic turning point, with measures such as interest rate cuts, relaxed housing market restrictions, and significant infrastructure investments boosting market sentiment [8][11] - The technological revolution, particularly in sectors like artificial intelligence and semiconductors, is expected to lead the market, reflecting a shift towards new economic drivers [11][14] Group 3 - The bull market is expected to fulfill three historical missions: supporting the development of new productive forces, aiding in major power competition, and repairing household balance sheets [13][15] - The capital market's prosperity is crucial for financing new economy sectors, which are often unable to secure funding through traditional banking systems due to their high-tech and asset-light nature [15][18] - The recovery of household balance sheets is vital, as the stock market's growth can offset the wealth loss from the real estate market, potentially leading to increased consumer spending [15][18] Group 4 - The outlook for the bull market includes the potential for a prolonged "slow bull" phase, which would significantly benefit hard technology development and economic recovery [17][19] - Continuous macroeconomic policy easing is essential for sustaining the bull market, with expectations for further interest rate cuts and fiscal stimulus to support demand [17][19] - The unique characteristics of the A-share market, dominated by retail investors, necessitate careful regulation of leverage to ensure healthy market development [18][19]

Market Overview - The A-share market performed strongly from August 18 to August 22, with major indices generally rising. The ChiNext 50 Index surged by 6.31%, and the Sci-Tech 50 Index increased by over 13%, indicating a focus on growth stocks in this market rally [2][4] - The Shanghai Composite Index rose by 3.49%, closing above 3800 points, while the Shenzhen Index and ChiNext Index increased by 4.57% and 5.85%, respectively [2][4] Industry Performance - The average increase of Wind's first-level industry indices was over 3%, with the information technology sector leading at 8.68%. Other sectors such as telecommunications, consumer discretionary, industrials, and materials also performed well [12][14] - All sectors recorded positive returns, with telecommunications, electronics, and comprehensive sectors showing strong performance, increasing by 10.84%, 8.95%, and 8.25%, respectively. Conversely, the pharmaceutical, coal, and real estate sectors lagged behind with increases of 1.05%, 0.92%, and 0.50% [2][12] Fund Issuance and Performance - A total of 38 funds were issued last week, including 26 equity funds, 6 mixed funds, 5 bond funds, and 1 QDII fund, with a total issuance of 23.314 billion units [2][19] - The Wind All Fund Index rose by 1.98%, with the ordinary equity fund index increasing by 3.60% and the mixed equity fund index rising by 3.52% [8][19] Global Asset Review - Global asset performance showed a "rise in the East and fall in the West." U.S. indices rebounded strongly after a dovish speech by Fed Chair Powell, while European markets displayed mixed results due to economic slowdown concerns [4][5] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose due to policy support from China and inflows of southbound capital [4] Bond Market Review - The bond market saw a decline in 30-year and 10-year government bond futures, indicating a significant "stock-bond seesaw" effect, reflecting high sensitivity of investors to long-term interest rates [15][16]

Core Viewpoint - The article presents a bullish outlook on Chinese assets, emphasizing a "confidence bull market" driven by significant policy easing and a shift in market sentiment towards optimism regarding China's economic prospects [5][7]. Group 1: Market Trends and Economic Outlook - Recent performance of A-shares and Hong Kong stocks indicates a new high for RMB assets, coinciding with a weakening US dollar and strengthening RMB exchange rate [6]. - The "confidence bull market" is characterized by a historical turning point in macroeconomic policy, marked by substantial fiscal measures and ongoing monetary easing [7]. - The concept of "East rises, West falls" suggests that while the US economy may face a downturn, China's economy is poised for recovery and renewed interest from global investors [7]. Group 2: Historical Analysis of A-share Bull Markets - A-share bull markets require three conditions for initiation: policy shift, capital inflow, and low valuations, often emerging from periods of despair [9]. - Bull markets typically progress through three phases: policy-driven, capital-driven, and fundamental-driven, with initial phases less correlated to economic fundamentals [9][10]. - The average duration of A-share bull markets is 17.35 months, significantly shorter than the average bear market duration of 27.12 months [10]. Group 3: Economic Trends for the Second Half of 2025 - The global economic landscape is marked by rising populism and de-globalization, with Chinese companies increasingly seeking opportunities abroad [12]. - The ongoing US-China tariff conflict is expected to persist, with potential escalations in trade tensions [12]. - Key factors for economic recovery include restoring confidence in the private sector, stabilizing the real estate market, and fostering new productive forces [12][13]. Group 4: Strategies for Economic Recovery - The concept of "debt migration" is proposed as a strategy to revitalize the economy, emphasizing the need for government and central bank intervention to alleviate debt burdens on households and businesses [14][15]. - Three main strategies for implementing "debt migration" include aggressive economic policies, establishing a housing reserve bank, and investing in new infrastructure [16][17]. - The focus on new infrastructure aims to support long-term economic growth and technological advancement, positioning China for future economic prosperity [16][17].

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article is that the current bull market in A-shares is characterized as a "confidence bull" driven by a significant shift in macroeconomic policy and an increase in risk appetite, rather than being fundamentally driven by corporate earnings [6][10][13] - A-shares have shown remarkable performance, with major indices reaching new highs and a significant increase in trading volume, indicating a strong market sentiment [2][3] - The increase in retail investor participation is evident, with a notable rise in new account openings and a shift of funds from savings to the stock market [3][4] Group 2 - The current bull market is not fundamentally driven, as economic indicators show signs of slowing down, including declines in industrial production, fixed asset investment, and real estate sales [4][5] - The bull market is influenced by a liquidity trap and a lack of alternative investment options, leading to a surge in capital inflow into the stock market as investors seek returns [5][9] - The driving forces behind the bull market include a significant increase in risk appetite and a decrease in the risk-free interest rate, which have been mutually reinforcing since the macroeconomic policy shift on September 24, 2023 [9][10][11] Group 3 - The macroeconomic policy shift on September 24, 2023, marked a turning point, leading to a series of measures that boosted market confidence, including monetary easing and support for the real estate sector [10][14] - The bull market is expected to have strategic significance for the development of new economies and hard technologies, providing necessary capital market support for these sectors [17] - The current bull market is seen as a potential driver for wealth effect recovery, which could positively impact consumer spending and the real estate market [17][18]