投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 期货研究报告 姓名：涂伟华 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3060359 投资咨询证号：Z0011688 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：tuweihua@bcqhgs.com 报告日期：2026 年 2 月 27 日 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 专业研究·创造价值 2026 年 3 月 锰硅月报 产业矛盾待解，锰硅低位震荡 核心观点 假期临近锰硅产业矛盾累积，现实逻辑主导下 2 月锰硅期现价格低 位震荡运行。 节前钢厂补库积极，厂内库存持续回升，但并未缓解锰硅生产企业 库存压力，其库存水平高位攀升，且多集中在主产区，且逐步转换成交 易所仓单，整体库存居高不下，继续抑制锰硅价格走势。 假期锰硅企业生产平稳，产量收缩态势未延续，且厂内库存高企， 叠加新增产能陆续投放，供应压力有待缓解。相对利好则是原料价格稳 中有升，成本支 ...

Core Viewpoint - Trump's nomination of Waller as the next Federal Reserve Chair is seen as a positive for the dollar and negative for precious metals [1] Group 1 - The nomination may lead to increased market volatility due to month-end portfolio rebalancing [1] - There has been a consensus in the market over the past two to three weeks to short the dollar and go long on precious metals [1]

Group 1 - The former director of the Digital Currency Research Institute, Yao Qian, was involved in facilitating an ICO and received 2,000 ETH as a reward for helping find an exchange for the ICO that raised 20,000 ETH [1] - Yao Qian's office was found to contain a hardware wallet, and he sold part of his ETH in 2021 to purchase a villa, with funds traced back to a virtual currency trader [1] Group 2 - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) for November showed a monthly increase of 0.2% and an annual increase of 3%, marking the highest level since July [1] Group 3 - Speculative funds are shifting towards macro trading, with over $40 billion flowing out of the altcoin market as risk appetite declines [2] - The median duration of altcoin market rallies has decreased to approximately 20 days, down from 40-60 days previously, with a 55% decline in open interest for altcoin futures since October [2] Group 4 - A bill is being prepared in Russia to remove cryptocurrencies from special financial regulations, aiming to promote their widespread use in daily life [3] - The focus of future legislative work will be on digital financial assets and the development of cryptocurrencies, with significant discussions planned for the upcoming spring session [3] Group 5 - A report by Wintermute indicates that funding in the crypto market for 2025 will be highly concentrated in BTC and ETH, with altcoin bull markets averaging only 20 days [4] - The report highlights a shift in options activity, which has doubled year-on-year, with a focus on systematic strategies including yield generation and downside protection [4] - The traditional four-year market cycle is breaking down, with market performance increasingly determined by liquidity flows and investor attention [4]

Core Insights - The cryptocurrency market is experiencing significant capital withdrawal from small-cap tokens as risk appetite declines [1] - The median uptrend cycle for altcoins in 2025 is approximately 20 days, a notable reduction from the previous 40-60 days [1] - Since October, the open interest in altcoin futures has decreased by about 55%, equating to over $40 billion in exposure disappearing [1] - Market participants are increasingly shifting their trading focus towards Bitcoin and Ether, which are more liquid and closely tied to macroeconomic factors [1]

Core Insights - The article highlights the transformation of Bao Zhenxiang from a futures broker to an asset manager over 15 years, emphasizing his success in the national futures competition through arbitrage strategies [1] - Bao Zhenxiang discusses the importance of balancing past, present, and future trading strategies to achieve cross-cycle profitability, particularly in the context of a volatile macroeconomic environment [1][2] - The article underscores the significance of thorough research and diversified investment strategies to manage risks effectively in trading [2] Group 1 - Bao Zhenxiang achieved the ninth place in the asset management product group at the national futures competition using arbitrage strategies [1] - The current market environment is not conducive to traditional arbitrage logic, necessitating a focus on fundamental and macro trading strategies [1][2] - Successful trading requires a deep understanding of various futures contracts, particularly in industrial and agricultural products, to capture market opportunities [1] Group 2 - Each trading strategy must consider the time value and safety margin of the asset, with strong fundamentals leading to positive arbitrage and weak fundamentals leading to negative arbitrage [2] - Bao Zhenxiang emphasizes the importance of a "mistake book" for traders to learn from past errors and achieve a deeper understanding of trading dynamics [2] - Maintaining physical health and mental clarity is crucial for traders to perform effectively in the market [3] Group 3 - The article advises ordinary investors to avoid blind following and unrealistic expectations of quick wealth, focusing instead on strategy and risk management [3]

Core Insights - Institutional funds are entering the market to buy at lower prices, leading to a strong increase in gold prices, which have consecutively broken through resistance levels [1] - The current spot gold price has risen to 3725, with macroeconomic favorable factors emerging significantly after interest rate cuts, prompting investment banks to raise their target prices for gold and silver [1] - As the options expiration approaches, October may face seasonal selling pressure, and initial signs of demand cooling in the Asian region have been observed, raising questions about the short-term operations and mid-term outlook for gold [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views Copper - The macro situation indicates that a September interest rate cut is certain, but the long - term impact on copper prices is limited. The fundamental situation shows "weak reality + stable expectations". In the future, copper pricing will return to macro trading, and prices will at least remain volatile. The main reference range is 79,500 - 82,000 yuan/ton [1]. Aluminum - For alumina, it is expected to fluctuate between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton in the short - term. For aluminum, prices are expected to fluctuate around the peak - season expectations and actual consumption this week, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,400 yuan/ton [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The price of cast aluminum alloy futures followed the rise of aluminum prices last week. It is expected that the spot price will remain firm, and the inventory accumulation rate will slow down. The main contract reference range this week is 20,200 - 21,000 yuan/ton [5]. Zinc - The supply of zinc is expected to be loose, and the upside space of Shanghai zinc is limited. In the short - term, prices may rise due to macro - drivers, but the fundamentals lack the elasticity for continuous upward movement. The main reference range is 21,800 - 22,800 yuan/ton [8]. Tin - Supply remains tight, and the expectation of interest rate cuts in the US is strengthening. It is expected that tin prices will continue to fluctuate at a high level, with the operating range of 265,000 - 285,000 yuan/ton [11]. Nickel - In the short - term, there is limited unilateral driving force. It is expected that the market will adjust within a range, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 124,000 yuan/ton [13]. Stainless Steel - The short - term market is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the operating range of 12,600 - 13,400 yuan/ton [15]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term market is expected to fluctuate and consolidate, with the price center of reference in the range of 70,000 - 74,000 yuan/ton [18]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price increased by 0.72% to 80,755 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss increased by 264.49 yuan/ton to - 17 yuan/ton [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, electrolytic copper production was 117.15 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 0.24%; in July, the import volume was 29.69 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.20% [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price increased by 0.77% to 21,020 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss decreased by 134.8 yuan/ton to - 1374 yuan/ton [3]. Fundamental Data - In August, alumina production was 773.82 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.15%; electrolytic aluminum production was 373.26 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.30% [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - SMM East China ADC12 price increased by 0.48% to 21,050 yuan/ton; the scrap - to - refined price difference in Foshan for broken primary aluminum increased by 6.98% to 1,432 yuan/ton [5]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.50 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.60%; the production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 27.10 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.88% [5]. Zinc Price and Spread - SMM 0 zinc ingot price increased by 0.23% to 22,230 yuan/ton; the import profit and loss decreased by 135.84 yuan/ton to - 2805 yuan/ton [8]. Fundamental Data - In August, refined zinc production was 62.62 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.88%; in July, the import volume was 1.79 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 50.35% [8]. Tin Spot Price and Basis - SMM 1 tin price increased by 0.37% to 271,100 yuan/ton; the LME 0 - 3 premium decreased by 55.74% to 27.00 US dollars/ton [11]. Fundamental Data - In July, tin ore imports were 10,278 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 13.71%; SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [11]. Nickel Price and Cost - SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price increased by 1.15% to 122,850 yuan/ton; the cost of integrated MHP to produce electrolytic nickel decreased by 2.81% to 118,531 yuan/ton [13]. Supply and Inventory - In August, China's refined nickel production was 32,200 tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.26%; the import volume was 17,536 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.46% [13]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Yuantong Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 13,150 yuan/ton; the futures - spot price difference increased by 11.11% to 450 yuan/ton [15]. Fundamental Data - In August, the production of 300 - series stainless steel crude steel in China (43 enterprises) was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%; the import volume was 7.30 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 33.30% [15]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Basis - SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price decreased by 0.55% to 72,450 yuan/ton; the lithium spodumene concentrate CIF average price decreased by 0.24% to 842 US dollars/ton [18]. Fundamental Data - In August, lithium carbonate production was 85,240 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.55%; the total inventory was 94,177 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.75% [18].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the stock market on September 15, highlighting mixed results among major indices and sector performances, with a focus on active sectors like gaming and pork, while noting the underperformance of certain materials sectors [2][5][10]. Market Performance - The three major indices closed with mixed results: Shanghai Composite Index at 3860.5 points, down 0.26%; Shenzhen Component Index at 13005.77 points, up 0.63%; and ChiNext Index at 3066.18 points, up 1.52% [2][3]. - The total trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets was 2.28 trillion yuan, a decrease of 245.8 billion yuan from the previous trading day, with over 3300 stocks declining and more than 1900 stocks rising [2][3]. Sector Performance - Active sectors included pork (+2.82%), gaming (+3.65%), and automotive parts, while superconductors and retail concepts showed weak performance [5][6]. - Notable stocks in the gaming sector included Xinghui Entertainment, which hit a 20% limit up, and Perfect World, which also reached the limit up, with several other gaming stocks rising over 6% [6]. - In the pork sector, stocks like Delisi and Aonong Biological reached their daily limit, while Tiankang Biological rose over 8% [7]. Capital Flow - Main capital inflows were observed in the automotive, electric equipment, and machinery sectors, while there were outflows from electronics, communications, and defense sectors [10]. - Specific stocks with significant net inflows included BYD, Top Group, and Zhongdali De, with net inflows of 840 million yuan, 716 million yuan, and 700 million yuan respectively [11]. - Conversely, stocks like Northern Rare Earth, Wolong Electric Drive, and Zhongji Xuchuang faced substantial net outflows of 2.01 billion yuan, 1.83 billion yuan, and 1.386 billion yuan respectively [12]. Institutional Views - Citic Securities noted that the market is entering a high-level consolidation phase, with macro trading becoming a significant variable affecting market direction [14]. - Huatai Securities expressed a positive mid-term outlook for the domestic fundamentals, suggesting maintaining a high position while focusing on cost-effectiveness and industry prosperity [14].

Group 1 - August is identified as one of the least popular months for dividends [1] - Macro Trading Factory is a macro-driven service managed by experienced investment managers [1] - The service offers two portfolios: "Funds Macro Portfolio" and "Rose's Income Garden," both aiming to outperform the SPY on a risk-adjusted basis [1] Group 2 - The portfolios are suitable for individuals with limited time, knowledge, or desire to manage their own investments [2] - The investment approach is designed to provide exposure to the market in a simple, yet more risk-oriented manner [2] - Each portfolio spans across all sectors, offering a hassle-free and easy-to-understand investment solution [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings were provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Copper**: In the short term, copper prices are expected to trade in a range of 77,500 - 79,000 yuan/ton. The "stagflation - like" environment in the US restricts the upside of copper prices, but the supply - demand contradiction in the medium - long term provides support. The short - term trading focus is on the US inflation and employment data in August, which will affect the Fed's decision in September [1]. - **Aluminum**: The alumina market is expected to remain in a slight surplus, with the main contract price oscillating between 3,000 - 3,300 yuan/ton. It is advisable to short at high prices. For electrolytic aluminum, the short - term price is under pressure at high levels, with the main contract price between 20,000 - 21,000 yuan/ton, and the 21,000 yuan/ton level is a key resistance [3]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The supply - demand of the aluminum alloy market remains weak, with the main contract price expected to oscillate between 19,600 - 20,400 yuan/ton. Attention should be paid to the supply and import of scrap aluminum [4]. - **Zinc**: Zinc prices are likely to oscillate in the short term, with the main contract price between 21,500 - 23,000 yuan/ton. The supply - demand fundamentals do not strongly support a continuous rise in zinc prices, but low inventories provide support [6]. - **Tin**: Tin prices will have a wide - range oscillation in the short term. If the supply from Myanmar recovers smoothly, a short - selling strategy is recommended; otherwise, tin prices are expected to remain high and oscillate [9]. - **Nickel**: The nickel market is expected to have an interval adjustment in the short term, with the main contract price between 118,000 - 126,000 yuan/ton. The macro situation is weakening, and the supply of nickel ore is expected to be loose [10]. - **Stainless Steel**: The stainless - steel market will oscillate in the short term, with the main contract price between 12,800 - 13,500 yuan/ton. The cost support is strengthening, but the spot demand is weak [11]. - **Lithium Carbonate**: Lithium carbonate prices are expected to have a wide - range oscillation, with the main contract price having strong support between 75,000 - 80,000 yuan/ton. Although the market sentiment is weak, the fundamentals are in a tight balance [12]. 3. Summary by Directory Copper - **Price and Basis**: SMM 1 electrolytic copper price dropped to 78,770 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.42%. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium dropped to 190 yuan/ton. The refined - scrap copper price difference decreased by 10.08% to 944 yuan/ton [1]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the electrolytic copper production was 117.43 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.47%. The domestic mainstream port copper concentrate inventory decreased by 10.01% week - on - week to 55.76 million tons [1]. Aluminum - **Price and Spreads**: SMM A00 aluminum price dropped to 20,520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.34%. The import profit and loss improved to - 1,154 yuan/ton [3]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the alumina production was 765.02 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 5.40%. The electrolytic aluminum production was 372.14 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.11% [3]. Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Spreads**: The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 20,350 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread between 2511 - 2512 decreased to - 5 yuan/ton [4]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the production of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 62.50 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.63%. The production of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 26.60 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.31% [4]. Zinc - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 0 zinc ingot price dropped to 22,170 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.14%. The import profit and loss improved to - 1,644 yuan/ton [6]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the refined zinc production was 60.28 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 3.03%. The Chinese zinc ingot seven - region social inventory increased by 13.59% week - on - week to 13.54 million tons [6]. Tin - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 1 tin price rose to 267,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.49%. The import profit and loss decreased to - 19,038.82 yuan/ton [9]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the domestic tin ore import decreased by 13.71% month - on - month. The SMM refined tin production was 15,940 tons, a month - on - month increase of 15.42% [9]. Nickel - **Price and Spreads**: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel price dropped to 120,900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62%. The futures import profit and loss decreased to - 1,857 yuan/ton [10]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the Chinese refined nickel production was 31,800 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 10.04%. The refined nickel import increased by 116.90% month - on - month to 19,157 tons [10]. Stainless Steel - **Price and Spreads**: The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) dropped to 13,050 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.38%. The futures - spot price difference increased to 400 yuan/ton [11]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the Chinese 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production was 171.33 million tons, a month - on - month decrease of 3.83%. The 300 - series social inventory (Wuxi + Foshan) decreased by 1.00% week - on - week to 49.65 million tons [11]. Lithium Carbonate - **Price and Spreads**: The SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate average price remained unchanged at 85,700 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread between 2509 - 2511 decreased to 40 yuan/ton [12]. - **Fundamentals**: In July, the lithium carbonate production was 93,958 tons, a month - on - month increase of 4.41%. The lithium carbonate total inventory decreased by 2.01% month - on - month to 97,846 tons [12].