Core Viewpoint - The current market sentiment is that "liquidity outweighs fundamentals," driven by rising expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, which is expected to inject upward momentum into risk assets [1] Group 1: Market Environment - The current market environment is compared to two historical periods: the mid-1990s when the Federal Reserve's preemptive rate cuts extended the economic expansion and fueled a stock market surge, and the 1970s before the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, characterized by dollar depreciation and weakened trust in U.S. government debt [1] - There is a significant amount of idle capital ready to buy on dips, which is likely to prolong the current market cycle [1] Group 2: Trust in U.S. Debt - A warning is issued regarding foreign central banks' gold reserves surpassing U.S. Treasury holdings for the first time in thirty years, indicating a potential erosion of trust in U.S. government debt [1] - The current cycle may end due to a breakdown in trust, despite the ongoing liquidity-driven market rally [1] Group 3: Structural Risks - While liquidity may continue to drive market enthusiasm, structural risks should not be overlooked [1]

Core Viewpoint - The current market sentiment is characterized by "liquidity over fundamentals," with expectations of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve driving idle capital to buy on market dips, thereby extending the economic cycle and boosting risk assets [1] Group 1: Market Environment - The current market environment bears striking similarities to two historical periods: the mid-1990s when the Fed's preemptive rate cuts successfully extended economic expansion and ignited a new stock market rally [1] - A concerning historical warning is emerging, as the continuous depreciation of the dollar against physical assets and the weakening trust in government debt by central banks evoke memories of the collapse of the Bretton Woods system in the 1970s [1] Group 2: Structural Signals - A key structural signal is that for the first time in thirty years, foreign central banks' gold reserves have surpassed their holdings of U.S. Treasury securities, reflecting a growing erosion of trust in U.S. government debt [1] - The potential end of the current cycle may not stem from economic weakness but rather from a complete breakdown of trust, indicating that while liquidity-driven market exuberance may continue, the underlying structural risks cannot be ignored [1]