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高盛:流动性驱动市场狂欢,结构性风险隐现关键信息:9月17日 美元贬值 黄金储备超美债
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-09-17 15:16
本文由 AI算法生成,仅作参考,不涉投资建议,使用风险自担 【9月17日高盛首席宏观指出"流动性胜过基本面"】9月17日,高盛首席宏观Paolo Schiavone称,当前市 场核心判断是"流动性胜过基本面"。美联储降息预期升温,大量闲置资金准备逢低买入,延长当前周 期,为风险资产注入上涨动力。 分析师认为,当前市场环境与历史两个时期相似。美联储预防性降息 类似1990年代中期,延长扩张、点燃股市飙升;同时,类似布雷顿森林体系崩溃前的1970年代,美元贬 值、央行对美债信任削弱。 Schiavone警告,外国央行黄金储备三十年来首超美债,反映市场对美政府 债务信任被侵蚀。他认为本轮周期或因信任瓦解终结,流动性驱动的市场狂欢或持续,但结构性风险不 容忽视。 ...
高盛:“流动性叙事”主导全球市场,狂欢背后的结构性风险不容忽视
Ge Long Hui A P P· 2025-09-17 12:47
Schiavone认为,本轮周期的终结方式,可能不是因为经济疲软,而是因为信任的彻底瓦解。在此之 前,由流动性驱动的市场狂欢或许仍将持续,但其背后的结构性风险已不容忽视。 分析师认为,目前的市场环境与历史上的两个时期有着惊人的相似之处。一方面,美联储的预防性降息 颇为类似1990年代中期的举措,当时此举成功延长了经济扩张,并点燃了新一轮的股市飙升。另一方 面,一个更令人担忧的历史警讯正在浮现。Schiavone 警告,当前美元对实物资产的持续贬值、央行对 政府债务信任的削弱,都让人联想到布雷顿森林体系崩溃前的1970年代。一个关键的结构性信号是,三 十年来,外国央行持有的黄金储备首次超过其持有的美国国债,这直接反映出市场对美国政府债务的信 任度正在被侵蚀。 格隆汇9月17日|高盛首席宏观研究员Paolo Schiavone指出,当前市场的核心判断是"流动性胜过基本 面"。在美联储降息预期升温的背景下,大量闲置资金准备在市场回档时逢低买入,这种预期心理正不 断延长当前的经济周期,并为风险资产注入了强劲的上涨动力。 ...
3600点!这次A股能站稳吗?公募这样预判
天天基金网· 2025-07-25 12:37
Group 1 - The A-share index has been on the rise since April 2025, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching 3605.73 points on July 24, 2023 [1] - Major broad-based indices have shown significant increases, with the North China 50 Index rising by 39.86% and other indices like the CSI 1000 and CSI 500 also experiencing notable gains [1] Group 2 - Huaxia Fund indicates that structural risks are accumulating but no clear turning point has been observed; the market is currently in a main upward trend with strong risk appetite and capital support [2] - Recent meetings have released positive signals for expanding domestic demand and "anti-involution" policies, boosting market sentiment; upcoming policy changes may act as new catalysts for market performance [2] - Long-term views suggest that the trend of asset revaluation in China remains unchanged, supported by global capital rebalancing and accelerated industrial upgrades [2] - Great Wall Fund maintains a cautiously optimistic short-term outlook, suggesting that while the market may still be in an upward trend, defensive positioning is necessary to avoid excessive chasing of highs [2]
高盛:受人口萎缩与房价走低影响,未来国内住宅需求将持续走低
Sou Hu Cai Jing· 2025-06-26 13:32
Core Viewpoint - The report by Goldman Sachs indicates a significant decline in housing demand in China due to population decrease and urbanization slowdown, predicting a shift towards a "housing for living, not for speculation" model in the real estate market [1][4]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The annual demand for urban housing in China is expected to drop from an average of 9.4 million units in the 2010s to 4.1 million units between 2025 and 2030, significantly lower than the peak demand of 20 million units in 2017 [1][4]. - The housing unit-to-household ratio has reached 1.16, exceeding the international warning line of 1.1, with a vacancy rate of 12.1%, indicating a severe supply-demand imbalance [5][6]. - The total inventory of commercial housing amounts to 93 trillion yuan, which is 70% of GDP, with a de-stocking cycle exceeding 30 months, suggesting that the demand side is nearing saturation [5][6]. Market Sentiment and Future Outlook - The ongoing decline in housing prices is expected to deter investment interest, with predictions that housing prices may drop by 20%-25% by 2025, further exacerbating market hesitance [9]. - The real estate sector, which contributes approximately 25% to GDP, is likely to face negative effects on investment and consumption due to shrinking demand [9]. - The report suggests that the real estate market will enter an "L-shaped" adjustment period over the next decade, characterized by structural differentiation and a policy-driven weak recovery rather than a complete downturn [12]. Demographic Trends - The population of individuals born in the 1990s is 40 million less than that of the 1980s, and the number of newborns has plummeted by 40% compared to eight years ago, leading to a shrinking pool of first-time homebuyers [5][12]. - The marriage registration numbers have declined for nine consecutive years, contributing to a decrease in "marriage housing" demand and reinforcing the trend towards rental housing [13]. Policy Implications - The report highlights the need for policy adjustments, such as promoting affordable housing and urban renewal, to address the challenges faced by the real estate sector [9][12]. - The shift from a focus on quantity to quality in housing demand is anticipated as urbanization approaches its limits, with a growing preference for smaller and more suitable housing options [12][13].