Schiavone认为，本轮周期的终结方式，可能不是因为经济疲软，而是因为信任的彻底瓦解。在此之 前，由流动性驱动的市场狂欢或许仍将持续，但其背后的结构性风险已不容忽视。 分析师认为，目前的市场环境与历史上的两个时期有着惊人的相似之处。一方面，美联储的预防性降息 颇为类似1990年代中期的举措，当时此举成功延长了经济扩张，并点燃了新一轮的股市飙升。另一方 面，一个更令人担忧的历史警讯正在浮现。Schiavone 警告，当前美元对实物资产的持续贬值、央行对 政府债务信任的削弱，都让人联想到布雷顿森林体系崩溃前的1970年代。一个关键的结构性信号是，三 十年来，外国央行持有的黄金储备首次超过其持有的美国国债，这直接反映出市场对美国政府债务的信 任度正在被侵蚀。 格隆汇9月17日｜高盛首席宏观研究员Paolo Schiavone指出，当前市场的核心判断是"流动性胜过基本 面"。在美联储降息预期升温的背景下，大量闲置资金准备在市场回档时逢低买入，这种预期心理正不 断延长当前的经济周期，并为风险资产注入了强劲的上涨动力。 ...

Core Viewpoint - Current market conditions are reminiscent of the 1970s, with a decline in the dollar's value against real assets and a loss of trust in government debt, similar to the period before the collapse of the Bretton Woods system [1][3] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Foreign central banks now hold more gold than U.S. Treasury securities for the first time in 30 years, indicating a shift in trust away from the dollar [1][3] - The Federal Reserve's dovish stance and interest rate cut expectations may extend the current economic cycle, potentially leading to a resurgence in risk assets by 2026 [3][4] - Historical precedents show that Fed rate cuts during non-recession periods often boost stock markets, provided that the market believes economic weakness is temporary [5][6] Group 2: Trust and Asset Performance - The rise of cryptocurrencies parallels the historical role of gold as a hedge against inflation and political instability, reflecting a broader loss of trust in fiat currencies [6][7] - Systemic factors such as populism and inequality are eroding trust in existing financial systems, prompting investors to diversify into various risk assets [7][8] Group 3: Liquidity and Long-Term Risks - Current market conditions are driven by liquidity, overshadowing fundamental concerns, similar to the dynamics observed in the early 2000s [9][10] - The dollar has been experiencing a hidden depreciation since 2009, not against other currencies but in terms of purchasing power against real assets [9][10] - Long-term bonds are facing a structural bear market, with their "risk-free" status increasingly questioned, potentially leading to a scenario worse than the 1940s and 1950s [10][11] Group 4: Future Outlook - The stability of long-term interest rates is crucial for maintaining a positive market outlook; a sudden collapse in the long bond market could expose vulnerabilities [11][14] - The current cycle may end not due to economic weakness but rather due to a loss of trust, with structural themes like defense, nuclear energy, and AI potentially gaining focus in a liquidity-driven environment [15][16]