海外创新药产业链复苏
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海外创新药产业链已呈结构性复苏趋势
Haitong Securities International· 2025-11-19 13:01
Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on globally competitive CXO companies such as WuXi AppTec, WuXi XDC Cayman, WuXi Biologics Cayman, Pharmaron, Asymchem Laboratories, Porton Pharma Solutions, and Zhejiang Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical [29][30] Core Insights - The overseas CXO industry has confirmed a bottom in prosperity and is showing signs of structural recovery. The industry has passed the cyclical bottom, but recovery is characterized by significant structural differentiation [30] - Clinical CROs like IQVIA and Medpace are leading the recovery with strong orders and guidance, while CDMOs such as Lonza demonstrate resilience through long-term contracts. Preclinical CROs and research services are still stabilizing, with improving inquiry or order cancellation rates [30][31] - The overall recovery strength and sustainability will depend on the continuation of enthusiasm in biotech financing [30] Summary by Sections 1. Overseas CXO Industry Q3 2025 Performance Review - The overseas CXO industry has shown a structural recovery trend, with significant differentiation in recovery across sectors. Clinical CROs are leading the recovery, while preclinical CROs and research services are still in a stabilization phase [8][30] 2. Leading Company Analysis 2.1 Charles River - The company is nearing a performance bottom, with Q3 revenue at $1 billion and an organic growth rate of -1.6%. The management has raised the full-year revenue and EPS guidance, indicating a positive outlook for 2026 [15][16] 2.2 Samsung Biologics - The company reported a strong Q3 performance with revenue of 1.66 trillion KRW, a 40% YoY increase. The CDMO segment continues to grow, with a full-year revenue growth guidance of 25%-30% [19][20] 2.3 Lonza - Lonza's Q3 performance met expectations, with CDMO business projected to grow by 20%-21% YoY. The company is experiencing strong demand in its core business segments [24][25] 3. Key Financial Metrics - The report includes financial forecasts for various companies, indicating expected revenue growth and profitability metrics for 2025-2027. For instance, WuXi AppTec is expected to have an EPS of 5.42 in 2025, with a PE ratio of 18 [26]
国泰海通|医药:海外创新药产业链已呈结构性复苏趋势
国泰海通证券研究· 2025-11-17 14:27
报告导读: 2025 年第三季度,海外 CXO 行业在宏观压力下展现出韧性,整体景气度已 触底企稳 。伴随降息、投融资等宏观指标恢复的情况下,推荐关注国内 CXO 的整体复 苏。 投资建议:维持"增持"评级。推荐具有全球竞争优势的 CXO 公司;推荐盈利能力逐步改善的创新药产业链相关企业;推荐以国内收入为主,预期随创新药出 海而逐步复苏的企业。 海外 CXO 景气度底部确认,已呈现结构性复苏趋势。 行业已度过周期性底部,但复苏呈现显著结构性分化。临床 CRO (以 IQVIA 、 Medpace 为代表) 凭借强劲的订单和前瞻指引成为复苏先锋; CDMO (以 Lonza 为代表)通过长单锁定展现韧性;而临床前 CRO ( Labcorp 、 Charles River )及科研服 务(丹纳赫)仍处于"乍暖还寒"的筑底阶段,询单或订单取消率呈现改善趋势。我们判断,行业已进入由景气度上行周期早期阶段,但全面复苏的强度和持续 性将取决于生物科技融资热的延续性。 临床 CRO :受益于药企后期管线投入,订单和业绩的能见度最高。 1 ) IQVIA :数据全面向好,龙头地位稳固。 Net book-to-bill 为 ...