新闻解读评级说明：五星重磅，四星重要，三星级以下大家选择听。 1、短期看淡海外扰动 今天不只是国内市场，整个亚太市场都迎来了"开门红"——主要市场普遍涨幅超过2%。可见，元旦期 间发生的国际突发事件并未带来冲击，资本市场也并未将其视为重大负面因素。委内瑞拉事件既有短期 影响，也有长期影响；短期影响已体现在盘面：市场认为美国重新在南美洗牌、加强对该地区的掌控， 但目前尚不足以引发担忧。更直白地说，这仍属于实力悬殊的"美国对小国"的拉扯，尚不足以升级为大 国冲突，因此对资本市场的扰动总体可控。 本篇评级为★★★，主要围绕以下内容展开： 如有疑问请以音频内容为准，添加妙投小虎哥微信miaotou515，入群有机会与董小姐进一步交流。 当然，若把时间拉长，委内瑞拉是否会引发一系列衍生事件，令外界猜测"下一个委内瑞拉"是谁，进而 导致美国与其他大国产生摩擦，这种可能性确实存在，但短期概率不高。等到市场发现矛盾激化的关键 转折点时，我们再将其纳入资本市场重新评估的核心变量；现阶段暂不考虑。 本文为妙投付费内容，上述仅为摘要，购买本专栏即可解锁完整内容。新用户可免费领本专栏7天阅读 体验机会，在妙投APP-我的-权益兑换 ...

Core Viewpoint - The period of significant overseas disturbances may be coming to an end, with upcoming events such as the Federal Reserve's meeting and the APEC summit expected to create a favorable environment [1] Group 1: Domestic Factors - The domestic market is approaching a phase with the Fourth Plenary Session and the verification of third-quarter reports, which are seen as positive catalysts [1] - There is an anticipated consensus in the market regarding the main line of economic prosperity, which is expected to strengthen [1] Group 2: Strategic Approach - The strategy moving forward should focus on internal factors, emphasizing certainty in domestic investments [1]

Group 1: Report Core View - Methanol futures prices have fluctuated significantly recently, mainly due to intensified trading behavior on the futures market under the coexistence of inventory pressure, olefin drag, and Iranian disruptions. The current near - term fundamentals of methanol face significant pressure, but there are still expectations of overseas shutdowns in winter in the long - term. Considering short - term news, the long - short game on the futures market is intense, and investors are advised to be cautious and view it as a wide - range oscillation [3] Group 2: Summary by Related Content Fundamental Situation - As of October 9, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 1543200 tons, an increase of 51000 tons compared with the previous data. The inventory in the East China region increased by 47800 tons, and that in the South China region increased by 3200 tons. The port inventory is at the highest level in the past five years, and the domestic production facilities continue to operate at a relatively high rate, so short - term supply pressure still exists [3] Downstream Market - The prices of core downstream olefins have continued to decline due to Sino - US disturbances and weak oil prices, which is the main factor restricting methanol prices [3] International Situation - There are still disruptions from Iran. The US previously imposed sanctions on some Iranian vessels, including some methanol transport vessels. But early today, Trump's stance towards Iran changed, suggesting the possibility of lifting sanctions, which has short - term impacts on the futures market and significantly increases the volatility of methanol [3]