热点栏目 自选股 数据中心 行情中心 资金流向 模拟交易 客户端 自上周五夜盘开始，PX在连续上涨一周后，价格出现明显回踩，周一价格延续调整，日内最大跌幅超 3%，领跌一众化工品。从价格下跌逻辑来看，上周五原油价格回落，尽管地缘问题频发，但暂时没有 进一步升级的迹象。市场再度交易原油供给过剩，库存走高的现实，价格下跌同时，也拉低了化工品的 成本线，对于前期涨幅较大的PX、PTA构成冲击。 基本面来看，截至12月26日，中国PX开工负荷为88.2%，较上期增加0.1个百分点。2025年11月中国大 陆PX进口总量约81.7万吨，环比下滑1%，同比下滑16.3%。周度PX价格持续上行，PXN也大幅扩大， 国内外装置重启增多，开工负荷高位，下游TA加工费同样修复，装置变动增多，但终端承压明显，上 游原料的单边拉涨，与下游纱线、布厂因订单乏力而导致的成本传导受阻，矛盾加大，产业链中段的聚 酯利润压缩明显。PX现实与预期博弈，现实端随着涤丝三大厂减产计划，聚酯开工负荷有进一步下滑 可能，下游负反馈的传导与明年预期改善的博弈仍为市场矛盾关注点，警惕现实端拖拽PX冲高回落。 资料来源：Wind、光大期货研究所 热点栏目 自 ...

Group 1: Report Core View - Methanol futures prices have fluctuated significantly recently, mainly due to intensified trading behavior on the futures market under the coexistence of inventory pressure, olefin drag, and Iranian disruptions. The current near - term fundamentals of methanol face significant pressure, but there are still expectations of overseas shutdowns in winter in the long - term. Considering short - term news, the long - short game on the futures market is intense, and investors are advised to be cautious and view it as a wide - range oscillation [3] Group 2: Summary by Related Content Fundamental Situation - As of October 9, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 1543200 tons, an increase of 51000 tons compared with the previous data. The inventory in the East China region increased by 47800 tons, and that in the South China region increased by 3200 tons. The port inventory is at the highest level in the past five years, and the domestic production facilities continue to operate at a relatively high rate, so short - term supply pressure still exists [3] Downstream Market - The prices of core downstream olefins have continued to decline due to Sino - US disturbances and weak oil prices, which is the main factor restricting methanol prices [3] International Situation - There are still disruptions from Iran. The US previously imposed sanctions on some Iranian vessels, including some methanol transport vessels. But early today, Trump's stance towards Iran changed, suggesting the possibility of lifting sanctions, which has short - term impacts on the futures market and significantly increases the volatility of methanol [3]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals showed a significant decline, with the main contract for paraxylene (PX) opening at 6912.0 CNY/ton and experiencing a drop of 2.44% during the trading session [1] - The price of PX fluctuated between a high of 6914.0 CNY and a low of 6804.0 CNY, indicating a weak market performance [1] - New Lake Futures noted that the fundamentals remain stable with upstream and downstream operations steady, while terminal operations show signs of recovery [1] Group 2 - Donghai Futures highlighted that the PX market remains tight, but external price declines and reduced PTA processing fees could lead to negative feedback risks for downstream operations [1] - The processing fee for PTA has dropped to a six-month low of around 150, prompting some large facilities to reduce their operating rates [1] - Wukuang Futures indicated that while PX load remains high, the end of the PTA maintenance season and recovering polyester operations suggest limited short-term negative pressure on PX [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report provides a weekly strategy for crude oil and polyester, covering views, logic, strategies, etc. [2] Group 2: Crude Oil Analysis Views - Long - term central price moves down, short - term price rebounds. Tariff easing may keep oil prices stable, with current spot demand being fair. The structure remains strong, refinery profits rebound, inventory continues to decline, and there is still support for oil prices. Short - term prices will fluctuate within a narrow range. However, over - planned production increases in countries like Kazakhstan may lead to higher - than - expected supply recovery. If demand drops later, it may pressure the market. [2] Logic - Supply increases from Kazakhstan and others will be faster than planned, and if demand weakens again, it will impact the market. [2] Strategy - Short - term long and long - term short [2] Market Conditions - The supply - demand level remains high, the monthly spread is at the highest level since the end of January, and the spot discount is neutral. [4] - U.S. refinery feedstock has increased slightly. As seasonal maintenance nears the end, feedstock demand has risen to a five - year high, inventory levels are low, and refined oil inventory is continuously decreasing. [12][13] - Refining profits have rebounded significantly recently, especially in the U.S. Gulf and Asia - Pacific regions. Spot trading has recovered, and the discount is reasonable. [19] - Refined oil demand exceeds expectations, gasoline and diesel inventories have decreased significantly, and overall inventory pressure is moderate, supporting a bottom - up price rebound. [22] Group 3: Polyester Analysis Views - In the short term, it will fluctuate at a low level. Downstream production remains high, but terminal production has further declined. Although there is some short - term restocking, finished product inventory is still high. Negative feedback may spread downstream. PTA prices may have a short - term small rebound due to inventory reduction, but downstream conditions may limit the upside. Ethylene glycol will continue to fluctuate weakly. [2] Logic - Negative feedback is emerging, downstream inventory pressure is increasing, and raw material inventory in downstream factories has accumulated significantly. The probability of normalizing ethane imports increases, reducing the possibility of some ethylene glycol import - raw - material device shutdowns. Port and factory inventory reduction is slow, and the obvious inventory reduction time for ethylene glycol will be postponed. [2] Strategy - Wait for low - buying opportunities [2] Market Conditions - The increase in polyester products is significantly lower than that of crude oil. After the crude oil price rebounded, the PX price increased slightly, and the PXN spread remained at around $170. The outer - market price rose to $752. PTA total inventory decreased slightly, port basis weakened slightly, but warehouse receipts decreased significantly. [27] - Due to the decrease in profit transfer influence, PTA supply decreased, and ethylene glycol production increased. PTA maintenance is frequent, and production remains low. Ethylene glycol production has increased due to potential stable oil - based supply and increased coal - based production. [33][37] - Terminal orders remain at a low level, with only Southeast Asian re - export orders being fair. Direct U.S. - related orders are almost stagnant, new orders are scarce, and terminal production has further declined. [40] - Downstream production remains at a high level. Although it has decreased month - on - month, it still reaches 93.6%. However, downstream profits are extremely low, inventory pressure is increasing, and the side - effects of high production are emerging. [47] - Downstream inventory continues to accumulate. After the easing of tariff concerns, there is some restocking intention, but the inventory reduction of FDY and DTY is limited, and inventory remains extremely high. [50] - Downstream profits continue to decline, and the sustainability of high - level production is questionable. The market has started to price in downstream inventory pressure, and polyester product prices will fluctuate at a low level. [57]