1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - Due to the Iran's control of the Strait of Hormuz for over a month, the shortage of raw materials and high - price raw materials have been realized in actual production. Pure benzene is facing a situation of double - decline in supply and demand, changing from a previously loose supply to a balanced or even tight state, with expected valuation repair. Styrene has a relatively strong fundamental situation. Before the Strait of Hormuz passage problem is solved, the supply side remains the main trading contradiction, and in the short term, the downstream negative feedback is difficult to be a sign of market change. Pure benzene and styrene are expected to fluctuate strongly [3][24] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Description - In the past, when the price of styrene was high and demand was weak, the reduction, production halt and raw material selling of downstream factories might be a sign of market change. Currently, although downstream reduction and raw material selling have occurred, the negative feedback seems to have failed, and styrene prices are still oscillating at a high level [4] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis 3.2.1 Pure Benzene Supply - In the second quarter, it is the peak maintenance period for petroleum benzene. Due to the Middle - East geopolitical conflict, some refineries at home and abroad have reduced the load of cracking units by 10% - 40%, resulting in an unexpected reduction in petroleum benzene supply. If the load reduction continues until the end of April, the unexpected reduction in domestic supply will exceed 80,000 tons, and the monthly maintenance loss has increased significantly compared with the beginning of the year [6] - Although there is a decline in the supply of oil - based pure benzene, the supply of coal - based hydrogenated benzene has some room for growth. The current operating rate of hydrogenated benzene is around 67%, with about 8% room for improvement, but the potential increase cannot fully offset the reduction in petroleum benzene [9] - The obstruction of the Strait of Hormuz will lead to a decline in future pure benzene imports. Asian refineries' production cuts will reduce exports to China. Although some pure benzene from India can be redirected to China, the import volume in March - April is still expected to be reduced to 37 - 380,000 tons per month [11] 3.2.2 Styrene Supply - In the second quarter, styrene maintenance is still concentrated, and the unexpected production reduction due to raw material supply shortage is yet to develop. Currently, styrene in the ethylene chain has the best profit performance. The impact on styrene is relatively small, but if the raw material shortage persists, styrene production will also be affected [15] 3.2.3 Demand Side - For pure benzene, the main demand support is styrene, which continues to be in a high - maintenance state. Non - styrene downstream industries are already operating at a high level, and it is difficult to further increase the operating rate. Overall, the rigid demand for pure benzene is supported but difficult to increase [20] - For styrene, among the downstream 3S products, EPS is operating relatively healthily, while PS and ABS have limited demand support and have shown negative feedback of production reduction. The export demand is strong. Due to the conflict in the Middle East, the global logistics of styrene has changed. It is expected that the export volume in April will probably exceed 100,000 tons [20] 3.3 Outlook for the Future Market - The situation of pure benzene and styrene is similar to the previous analysis. They are facing supply contraction and demand with limited growth. Before the Strait of Hormuz problem is solved, the supply side is the main trading contradiction, and they are expected to fluctuate strongly [24]

Core Viewpoint - Methanol prices have ended a downward trend since July of the previous year and have entered an upward market in 2026, supported by low valuations, expectations of inventory reduction at ports, and geopolitical factors that have increased price volatility [1] Group 1: Inventory and Supply Dynamics - Methanol port inventory has been in a seasonal accumulation cycle since May of the previous year, reaching a historical high in September, which has suppressed prices [2] - Due to the cold weather, Iranian methanol production facilities began to shut down in November 2025, leading to a significant reduction in methanol imports to China, which is expected to alleviate port inventory pressure [3] - As of January 15, 2026, coastal methanol inventory stands at 1.42 million tons, down approximately 220,000 tons from the peak in mid-November 2025, indicating a marginal improvement in supply-demand dynamics [3] Group 2: Price and Profitability Trends - Domestic methanol production is characterized by high supply and low profitability, with overall operating rates at 77.91% as of January 15, 2026, slightly down from the previous week but up year-on-year [4] - Production profits have significantly decreased, with coal-based methanol in Inner Mongolia showing a loss of 251.60 yuan/ton, a 17.79% decrease month-on-month, and similar declines observed in other regions [4] - The upward movement in methanol prices is constrained by rising raw material costs, particularly during the winter demand peak for coal and natural gas [4] Group 3: Downstream Demand and Market Sentiment - The operating rate of methanol-to-olefins (MTO) facilities has decreased to 80.75%, with several plants undergoing maintenance, indicating pressure on downstream demand for methanol [5] - Traditional downstream sectors such as formaldehyde and acetic acid are performing poorly, with overall operating rates at historically low levels, limiting demand support for methanol as the Spring Festival approaches [6] - The geopolitical situation, particularly tensions between the U.S. and Venezuela, has raised concerns about methanol supply, further contributing to price volatility [3][6]

Core Viewpoint - PX prices have experienced a significant pullback after a week of continuous increase, with a maximum daily decline exceeding 3%, leading the decline among chemical products [3][7]. Price Movement - The recent price drop is attributed to a decline in crude oil prices, despite ongoing geopolitical issues that have not escalated further [3][7]. - The market is reacting to the reality of oversupply in crude oil and rising inventories, which has lowered the cost line for chemical products, impacting previously high PX and PTA prices [3][7]. Fundamental Analysis - As of December 26, China's PX operating load is at 88.2%, an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous period [3][7]. - The total PX imports to mainland China in November 2025 are approximately 817,000 tons, reflecting a 1% decrease month-on-month and a 16.3% decrease year-on-year [3][7]. - Weekly PX prices have continued to rise, with PXN significantly expanding, and an increase in the restart of domestic and international facilities [3][7]. Industry Dynamics - The downstream TA processing fees have also recovered, with increased facility changes; however, the terminal market is under significant pressure [3][7]. - There is a growing contradiction between the unilateral price increase of upstream raw materials and the cost transmission issues faced by downstream yarn and fabric manufacturers due to weak orders [3][7]. - The compression of profits in the polyester segment is becoming evident, with potential further declines in polyester operating loads due to production cut plans from the three major polyester manufacturers [3][7]. Market Sentiment - The ongoing battle between current realities and future expectations remains a focal point for market participants, with caution advised regarding the potential for PX prices to retreat after reaching highs [3][7].

Group 1: Report Core View - Methanol futures prices have fluctuated significantly recently, mainly due to intensified trading behavior on the futures market under the coexistence of inventory pressure, olefin drag, and Iranian disruptions. The current near - term fundamentals of methanol face significant pressure, but there are still expectations of overseas shutdowns in winter in the long - term. Considering short - term news, the long - short game on the futures market is intense, and investors are advised to be cautious and view it as a wide - range oscillation [3] Group 2: Summary by Related Content Fundamental Situation - As of October 9, the total inventory of methanol ports in China was 1543200 tons, an increase of 51000 tons compared with the previous data. The inventory in the East China region increased by 47800 tons, and that in the South China region increased by 3200 tons. The port inventory is at the highest level in the past five years, and the domestic production facilities continue to operate at a relatively high rate, so short - term supply pressure still exists [3] Downstream Market - The prices of core downstream olefins have continued to decline due to Sino - US disturbances and weak oil prices, which is the main factor restricting methanol prices [3] International Situation - There are still disruptions from Iran. The US previously imposed sanctions on some Iranian vessels, including some methanol transport vessels. But early today, Trump's stance towards Iran changed, suggesting the possibility of lifting sanctions, which has short - term impacts on the futures market and significantly increases the volatility of methanol [3]

Group 1 - The domestic futures market for energy and chemicals showed a significant decline, with the main contract for paraxylene (PX) opening at 6912.0 CNY/ton and experiencing a drop of 2.44% during the trading session [1] - The price of PX fluctuated between a high of 6914.0 CNY and a low of 6804.0 CNY, indicating a weak market performance [1] - New Lake Futures noted that the fundamentals remain stable with upstream and downstream operations steady, while terminal operations show signs of recovery [1] Group 2 - Donghai Futures highlighted that the PX market remains tight, but external price declines and reduced PTA processing fees could lead to negative feedback risks for downstream operations [1] - The processing fee for PTA has dropped to a six-month low of around 150, prompting some large facilities to reduce their operating rates [1] - Wukuang Futures indicated that while PX load remains high, the end of the PTA maintenance season and recovering polyester operations suggest limited short-term negative pressure on PX [2]

Group 1: Report Overview - The report provides a weekly strategy for crude oil and polyester, covering views, logic, strategies, etc. [2] Group 2: Crude Oil Analysis Views - Long - term central price moves down, short - term price rebounds. Tariff easing may keep oil prices stable, with current spot demand being fair. The structure remains strong, refinery profits rebound, inventory continues to decline, and there is still support for oil prices. Short - term prices will fluctuate within a narrow range. However, over - planned production increases in countries like Kazakhstan may lead to higher - than - expected supply recovery. If demand drops later, it may pressure the market. [2] Logic - Supply increases from Kazakhstan and others will be faster than planned, and if demand weakens again, it will impact the market. [2] Strategy - Short - term long and long - term short [2] Market Conditions - The supply - demand level remains high, the monthly spread is at the highest level since the end of January, and the spot discount is neutral. [4] - U.S. refinery feedstock has increased slightly. As seasonal maintenance nears the end, feedstock demand has risen to a five - year high, inventory levels are low, and refined oil inventory is continuously decreasing. [12][13] - Refining profits have rebounded significantly recently, especially in the U.S. Gulf and Asia - Pacific regions. Spot trading has recovered, and the discount is reasonable. [19] - Refined oil demand exceeds expectations, gasoline and diesel inventories have decreased significantly, and overall inventory pressure is moderate, supporting a bottom - up price rebound. [22] Group 3: Polyester Analysis Views - In the short term, it will fluctuate at a low level. Downstream production remains high, but terminal production has further declined. Although there is some short - term restocking, finished product inventory is still high. Negative feedback may spread downstream. PTA prices may have a short - term small rebound due to inventory reduction, but downstream conditions may limit the upside. Ethylene glycol will continue to fluctuate weakly. [2] Logic - Negative feedback is emerging, downstream inventory pressure is increasing, and raw material inventory in downstream factories has accumulated significantly. The probability of normalizing ethane imports increases, reducing the possibility of some ethylene glycol import - raw - material device shutdowns. Port and factory inventory reduction is slow, and the obvious inventory reduction time for ethylene glycol will be postponed. [2] Strategy - Wait for low - buying opportunities [2] Market Conditions - The increase in polyester products is significantly lower than that of crude oil. After the crude oil price rebounded, the PX price increased slightly, and the PXN spread remained at around $170. The outer - market price rose to $752. PTA total inventory decreased slightly, port basis weakened slightly, but warehouse receipts decreased significantly. [27] - Due to the decrease in profit transfer influence, PTA supply decreased, and ethylene glycol production increased. PTA maintenance is frequent, and production remains low. Ethylene glycol production has increased due to potential stable oil - based supply and increased coal - based production. [33][37] - Terminal orders remain at a low level, with only Southeast Asian re - export orders being fair. Direct U.S. - related orders are almost stagnant, new orders are scarce, and terminal production has further declined. [40] - Downstream production remains at a high level. Although it has decreased month - on - month, it still reaches 93.6%. However, downstream profits are extremely low, inventory pressure is increasing, and the side - effects of high production are emerging. [47] - Downstream inventory continues to accumulate. After the easing of tariff concerns, there is some restocking intention, but the inventory reduction of FDY and DTY is limited, and inventory remains extremely high. [50] - Downstream profits continue to decline, and the sustainability of high - level production is questionable. The market has started to price in downstream inventory pressure, and polyester product prices will fluctuate at a low level. [57]