Group 1: Market Overview - The international shipping market is experiencing adjustments, with most freight rates declining. The Shanghai Export Containerized Freight Index was reported at 1415.36 points, down 3.1% from the previous period, indicating a weak supply-demand balance amid increasing uncertainties such as tariffs [1] - Despite the overall decline in freight rates, emerging markets are showing strong growth, particularly in the Middle East and Australia/New Zealand routes, which are experiencing price increases [1] Group 2: Freight Rate Trends - European shipping rates have been on a continuous decline since June 13, with the rate from Shanghai to Europe at $1668/TEU, down 8.4% [2] - U.S. shipping rates have also decreased, with rates to the West and East coasts at $1644/FEU and $2613/FEU, down 6.5% and 3.9% respectively [2] - The decline in European rates is attributed to a recovering economy and demand, as indicated by a PMI of 51.1 in August, while U.S. rates are affected by high tariffs leading to weak demand [2][3] Group 3: Business Insights - A logistics company reported an increase in business volume despite falling rates, attributing this to strong demand for exports to Europe and the upcoming peak shipping season [3] - However, there are concerns regarding inventory restrictions from major clients like Amazon, which could further compress domestic freight forwarding space [3] Group 4: Regional Freight Rate Increases - In contrast to the declining rates in Europe and the U.S., freight rates to the Middle East and Australia/New Zealand are rising. The rate to the Persian Gulf is $1479/TEU, up 7.1% [5] - The demand for larger containers, particularly for high-end equipment, is driving up rates, with 40-foot container rates reportedly exceeding $2000 [5][6] - The Australian and New Zealand routes have maintained stable upward trends, with rates increasing by 85% compared to June [6] Group 5: Future Outlook - The traditional FOB business is expected to shrink, while logistics for high-tech products and overseas projects are seen as key growth areas [7] - The export of electromechanical products has increased by 9.3%, indicating a shift towards higher value-added goods [7] - The Chinese government is committed to expanding high-level openness and ensuring quality development in response to global trade uncertainties [7]

Core Insights - The international shipping market is experiencing a mixed trend, with most routes seeing a decline in freight rates, while emerging markets, particularly in the Middle East and Australia/New Zealand, are witnessing price increases [1][5][7]. Freight Rate Trends - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index dropped to 1415.36 points, a decrease of 3.1% [1]. - European routes have seen a continuous decline since June 13, with rates dropping to $1668 per TEU, down 8.4% [2]. - U.S. routes also experienced a decline, with rates for West and East Coast ports at $1644 per FEU and $2613 per FEU, down 6.5% and 3.9% respectively [2]. - In contrast, the Middle East route saw an increase to $1479 per TEU, up 7.1% [5]. - The 40-foot container rates for the Middle East surged from $1100 in July to over $2000 [5]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - Despite falling freight rates, some companies report an increase in business volume, particularly in Europe, due to stable demand from China [3]. - The demand for 40-foot containers is higher due to cost-saving measures and the need for larger equipment [5]. - The U.S. market is facing a decline in orders, with a trend towards shorter order cycles [4]. Market Adjustments - Shipping alliances are adjusting supply by suspending services to mitigate losses [3]. - Companies are exploring new markets, such as the Middle East, and enhancing their service capabilities to meet rising demand [6]. - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have led to temporary service suspensions, impacting shipping capacity [6]. Export Growth - China's exports to the EU grew by 9.2% in July, indicating robust demand despite the overall decline in freight rates [2]. - High-tech and high-value products, such as smart home devices and electric vehicles, are driving export growth, with a 9.3% increase in machinery and electronics exports [7]. Government Response - The Chinese government is focusing on stabilizing foreign trade and expanding high-level openness to counteract uncertainties in the global market [8].

Core Viewpoint - The traditional peak season for shipping has arrived in Q3, but shipping prices between China and the U.S. have plummeted, leading to low export willingness among traders [1][4]. Group 1: Shipping Price Trends - As of mid-July, shipping prices for the East U.S. route have dropped to $3,300-$3,800 per FEU, while the West U.S. route is at $1,700-$1,800 per FEU, marking a 70% drop for the West route and approximately 50% for the East route compared to early June [1][7]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has seen a continuous decline for six weeks, prompting shipping companies to reduce capacity and services from Asia to the U.S. [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The expected peak season for U.S. exports is not materializing as anticipated, with low inquiry volumes and subdued business activity in July and August [3][4]. - Factors contributing to the low export volume include earlier shipping surges in May and June, influenced by external conditions and tariff policies [3][4]. Group 3: Tariff Impact - U.S. export fluctuations are closely tied to tariff policies, with significant impacts observed in the first quarter due to urgent shipments in response to tariff risks [4][5]. - The U.S. retail market is experiencing reduced consumer capacity, with inflationary pressures from rising import prices due to tariffs [5]. Group 4: Shipping Company Adjustments - Shipping companies are adjusting their routes in response to falling prices, with MSC and Zhonglian Shipping being proactive in suspending services and reallocating capacity [8]. - The current pricing environment is pushing some smaller non-alliance vessels into losses, leading to potential withdrawals from the market [8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The outlook for shipping prices remains pessimistic unless significant economic stimuli occur, with potential for further capacity adjustments among shipping companies [9].