银河证券章俊表示，国内物价运行的低点已过，正进入温和修复阶段。 1月5日至6日，中国人民银行工作会议围绕货币政策实施、金融服务实体经济、风险防控、金融改革开 放等核心领域，明确行动路径。货币政策方面，会议强调，把促进经济高质量发展、物价合理回升作为 货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具。经济学家们预计未来政策将保持连 续性、稳定性兼顾灵活性。 摘要 2026年1月，第一财经研究院发布的"第一财经首席经济学家信心指数"为50.32，较上月回升，维持景气 状态。经济学家们认为2025年我国经济运行稳中有进，顺利收官。 兴业证券王涵认为，未来宏观经济将稳中求进、提质增效，结构持续优化，新质生产力占比 提升，"投资于人"带来新的经济活力。 首席经济学家们对2025年12月CPI同比增速的预测均值为0.8%，PPI同比预测均值为-2%。2025年12月工 业增加值增速预测均值4.9%，固定资产投资累计增速预测均值为-2.2%，社会消费品零售总额同比增速 预测均值为1.8%，贸易顺差预测均值为1113.5亿美元，新增贷款预测均值为7182.5亿元，社会融资总量 预测均值为1.8万亿，M2同比增速预测 ...

2026年1月，第一财经研究院发布的"第一财经首席经济学家信心指数"为50.32，较上月回升，维持景气状态。经济学家们认为2025年我国经济运行稳中 有进，顺利收官。 首席经济学家们对2025年12月CPI同比增速的预测均值为0.8%，PPI同比预测均值为-2%。2025年12月工业增加值增速预测均值4.9%，固定资产投资累计 增速预测均值为-2.2%，社会消费品零售总额同比增速预测均值为1.8%，贸易顺差预测均值为1113.5亿美元，新增贷款预测均值为7182.5亿元，社会融资 总量预测均值为1.8万亿，M2同比增速预测均值为8%。 1月5日至6日，中国人民银行工作会议围绕货币政策实施、金融服务实体经济、风险防控、金融改革开放等核心领域，明确行动路径。货币政策方面， 会议强调，把促进经济高质量发展、物价合理回升作为货币政策的重要考量，灵活高效运用降准降息等多种货币政策工具。经济学家们预计未来政策将 保持连续性、稳定性兼顾灵活性。 | 表 1 CBNR1 自席经济学家调研: 2025 年 12月经济数据次测 | 2025 年 12 月 | 2025年12月预测 | 11 月公布 | 2025年12月预 | | ...

这个男孩，叫何佳坤。 这个活动就是阿里国际站的真牛奖，老粉可能都知道，我非常的关注AI在外贸领域的运用，毕竟这是跟钱最近的行业，而真牛奖，就是阿里国际站一年 一度最大的外贸活动，戏称外贸春晚，我也非常荣幸的受邀作为嘉宾前去观礼。 而真牛奖呢，跟我参加过所有的AI活动，都特娘的不一样。 全场跟奇葩说一样，16个商家选手，4个辩题，激情辩论了好几个小时，我放一段我拍的视频，你就知道现场有多刺激了。 而何佳坤，就是其中的一个辩手。 他可能是让我印象最深刻的选手之一，而且完全可以说，是外贸这个领域，AI时代的原住民。 所以在活动结束之后，已经快12点了，我又拖着阿里国际站的朋友，单独找他，又聊了一会，做了一个小小的专访。 是一个我觉得AI时代，一个巨大的缩影。 00后，应届毕业生，体育专业，普通男大，高考英语50分，用AI做外贸，两年破了3000万营收。 这些看着极度反差的词，就这样，堆在这个看着很憨厚的何佳坤的身上。 我之所以认识他知道他，是因为前天晚上，可能是我录了人生中收货最大但是也是最累的一次活动，甚至都不能说是活动，应该是综艺，从下午4点半到 晚上12点，录了将近8个小时。 但是我之所以想把他的故事写下来， ...

与生产端"热"形成对比的是需求端"冷"。11月社会消费品零售总额同比仅增1.3%，环比回落0.4个百分 点，创年内新低。网上实物商品零售额虽保持5.7%的增速、占比升至25.9%，但未能对冲线下疲软。记 者获悉，消费乏力背后，是居民收入预期走弱与"预防式"储蓄抬头：前11个月居民存款再增超10万亿 元，五年累计新增逾60万亿元，余额已突破165万亿元。如何"唤醒"巨额储蓄，成为政策新命题。 "在工资性收入提升难度加大的背景下，提高居民财产性收入是撬动消费更快回升的关键。"某权威政策 研究机构人士向记者表示。目前，房价上涨预期已逆转，资本市场被寄予"接棒"厚望。数据显示，上证 综指年内已站上4000点，权益类公募基金前11个月销量突破5000亿元，占比首次超过固收类；全年新增 股民账户超2500万户，月均开户200万户，居民资产正呈现"存款—理财—权益"大迁徙。 投资端亦在"探底"。1—11月全国固定资产投资同比下降2.6%，若剔除房地产开发投资，则微增0.8%。 房地产下拉作用明显：开发投资同比深跌15.9%，连续三年负增长，拖累整体投资。业内预计，2026 年"收储+限供"政策有望加速落地，叠加保交楼资金闭 ...

外贸，拉动经济增长的"三驾马车"之一。 前三季度，我国货物贸易进出口总值同比增长4%。上半年，新设外资企业同比增长4.1%。面对复杂严 峻的外部环境，我国外贸韧性彰显，外资持续加码。 ■外贸产品结构不断优化，出口新动能增势良好 据海关统计，前10个月，我国出口机电产品13.43万亿元，同比增长8.7%，拉动我国整体出口增长5.2个 百分点。 "新三样"产品、铁道电力机车、风力发电机组等绿色产品出口增速都达到两位数。向新、向智、向绿等 新动能不断涌现，持续推动我国外贸提质增效。 ■不断开拓新兴市场，贸易伙伴更趋多元化 数据显示，前10个月，我国对共建"一带一路"国家合计进出口19.28万亿元，增长5.9%。其中，东盟继 续保持我国第一大贸易伙伴地位，对东盟进出口同比增长9.1%，对亚太经合组织（APEC）其他经济体 进出口增长1.5%。此外，我国自拉美、非洲和中亚国家进口分别增长1%、5.2%和23.7%。 ■新平台新模式拓展新空间 以跨境电商、保税维修、市场采购等为代表的新业态新模式助力各国消费者、生产者"买全球、卖全 球"，成为稳外贸的重要引擎；举办消博会、进博会、广交会、链博会等重点展会，进一步帮助企业开 ...

摘要 2025年12月，第一财经研究院发布的"第一财经首席经济学家信心指数"为50，稍低于上月，持平于50荣 枯线。经济学家们认为，当前我国经济处于弱复苏状态，未来宏观政策将延续宽松基调，为"十五五"开 局奠定坚实的基础。 毕马威蔡伟认为，总的来看，在稳增长政策发力、外部不确定性缓和的带动下，当前整体经 济处于弱复苏通道。 经济学家们预计11月物价数据将较上月公布数据继续回升，CPI同比预测均值为0.72%，PPI同比预测均 值为-2.05%，他们对固定资产投资累计增速的预测均值为-2.1%，社会消费品零售总额同比增速预测均 值为3.09%，工业增加值同比增速预测均值为5.0%。同时，刚刚公布的进出口数据显示，11月进出口同 比数据均高于上月，贸易顺差上升至1116.8亿美元，符合经济学家们的预期。 兴业银行鲁政委认为，"双11"购物节的提振，叠加餐饮回暖趋势延续，11月社会消费品零售 同比有望回升。 经济学家们预计11月金融数据将较上月有所回升，新增贷款的预测均值为6791亿元、社会融资总量的预 测均值为2.32万亿元，M2同比增速预测均值为8.29%，他们认为11月LPR利率和存准水平调整的可能性 较小。 ...

Core Insights - The Chinese foreign trade system has shown resilience under external pressures, with a year-on-year increase of 7.48% in the issuance of various certificates, including certificates of origin and ATA carnets, in October 2025 [2][5] Group 1 - In October 2025, a total of 656,900 certificates were issued by the national trade promotion system, reflecting a 7.48% increase compared to the previous year [2] - The breakdown of certificates includes 342,000 non-preferential certificates of origin, 260,500 preferential certificates of origin, and 30,099 RCEP certificates of origin [2] - The RCEP trade agreement is expected to provide a tax reduction of $1.3 million for Chinese products imported into RCEP member countries, indicating ongoing benefits from free trade agreements [5]

Core Insights - The total value of goods trade imports and exports in Shenyang reached 114.78 billion RMB in the first ten months of 2025, with exports hitting a record high of 53.77 billion RMB, marking an 11.6% year-on-year growth, surpassing the provincial average by 2 percentage points [1] - Despite a decline in imports due to factors like bulk commodities, the overall decrease has narrowed by 2 percentage points compared to the previous nine months, indicating a stabilizing trend [1] Trade Structure Highlights - General trade, characterized by greater autonomy, dominates Shenyang's foreign trade, accounting for over 80% of the total import and export value, serving as a stabilizing force in the trade structure [1] - Private enterprises showed remarkable growth with a 36.2% year-on-year increase in imports and exports, significantly contributing to the overall growth alongside state-owned enterprises, which grew by 14.7% [1] Trade Partnerships and Product Insights - Shenyang's trade partners have become more diverse, with stable growth in trade with ASEAN countries, Belt and Road Initiative countries, and RCEP partners, including a trade value of 56 billion RMB with Belt and Road countries, growing by 4.6%, and 20.12 billion RMB with RCEP partners, growing by 8% [2] - The export product list from Shenyang is notable, with electromechanical products remaining the mainstay, particularly a 39.7% increase in electrical equipment exports and steady growth in automotive parts, showcasing Shenyang's advantages in related industrial chains [2] - Labor-intensive products have emerged as a surprising contributor to export growth, with an impressive increase of 86.4%, while imports of agricultural products and pharmaceuticals have also seen double-digit growth, meeting the rising domestic market demand [2]

Core Insights - The total value of goods trade imports and exports in Shenyang reached 114.78 billion RMB in the first ten months of this year, with exports hitting a record high of 53.77 billion RMB, marking a year-on-year growth of 11.6% [1][3] Group 1: Trade Performance - Shenyang's foreign trade has shown steady progress despite pressures, with a significant narrowing of the import decline by 2 percentage points compared to the previous nine months [3] - General trade, characterized by greater autonomy, dominates the trade structure, accounting for over 80% of the total import and export value [3] - Private enterprises exhibited remarkable growth with a year-on-year increase of 36.2% in imports and exports, contributing significantly to overall growth alongside state-owned enterprises, which grew by 14.7% [3] Group 2: Trade Partners and Markets - Shenyang's trade partners have become more diverse, with stable growth in trade with ASEAN countries, Belt and Road Initiative countries, and RCEP partners [5] - Trade with Belt and Road Initiative countries reached 56 billion RMB, growing by 4.6%, while trade with RCEP partners amounted to 20.12 billion RMB, increasing by 8% [5] Group 3: Export Products - Electromechanical products remain the mainstay of exports, with electrical equipment exports surging by 39.7% and automotive parts also showing growth [6] - Labor-intensive products have emerged as a surprising contributor to export growth, with an increase of 86.4% [6] - In imports, while overall imports of electromechanical products declined, there was a double-digit growth in imports of agricultural products and pharmaceuticals, reflecting the rising domestic market demand [6]

Export Data - In October 2025, China's export value (in USD) decreased by 1.1% year-on-year, marking a return to negative growth after a 3.1% decline in February 2025[4] - Exports to the US saw a double-digit decline, while exports to Japan and South Korea fell by 9.2%[4] - Exports to ASEAN remained strong, with growth above 10% despite a slight slowdown[4] Import Data - China's import value (in USD) increased by 1.0% year-on-year in October 2025, marking five consecutive months of positive growth[5] - Major contributors to import growth included Hong Kong (70.2%), Brazil (20.3%), and Japan (5.9%), while imports from the US fell significantly by 22.8%[5] - High-tech and electromechanical products saw notable import growth, with increases of 8.7% and 4.7% respectively[5] Trade Surplus - The trade surplus in October 2025 remained robust at over $90 billion, indicating strong competitiveness in foreign trade despite a decline in exports[6] - The surplus with the US and ASEAN showed an upward trend compared to September, reflecting ongoing industrial competitiveness[7] Market Outlook - External demand is expected to remain weak in the short term, influenced by signs of economic slowdown in the US[8] - The recent US-China summit may lead to marginal improvements in trade relations, but the overall external demand weakness is likely to persist[8] - The market may see a convergence in previously divergent trends, with sectors like finance, export leaders, and public utilities expected to perform well[8] Risks - Potential escalation in US-China tensions could impact trade and financial markets more severely than anticipated[16] - Geopolitical crises and global economic pressures may further destabilize trade conditions and financial markets[16]