Core Viewpoint - The traditional peak season for shipping has arrived in Q3, but shipping prices between China and the U.S. have plummeted, leading to low export willingness among traders [1][4]. Group 1: Shipping Price Trends - As of mid-July, shipping prices for the East U.S. route have dropped to $3,300-$3,800 per FEU, while the West U.S. route is at $1,700-$1,800 per FEU, marking a 70% drop for the West route and approximately 50% for the East route compared to early June [1][7]. - The Shanghai Export Container Freight Index (SCFI) has seen a continuous decline for six weeks, prompting shipping companies to reduce capacity and services from Asia to the U.S. [3]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The expected peak season for U.S. exports is not materializing as anticipated, with low inquiry volumes and subdued business activity in July and August [3][4]. - Factors contributing to the low export volume include earlier shipping surges in May and June, influenced by external conditions and tariff policies [3][4]. Group 3: Tariff Impact - U.S. export fluctuations are closely tied to tariff policies, with significant impacts observed in the first quarter due to urgent shipments in response to tariff risks [4][5]. - The U.S. retail market is experiencing reduced consumer capacity, with inflationary pressures from rising import prices due to tariffs [5]. Group 4: Shipping Company Adjustments - Shipping companies are adjusting their routes in response to falling prices, with MSC and Zhonglian Shipping being proactive in suspending services and reallocating capacity [8]. - The current pricing environment is pushing some smaller non-alliance vessels into losses, leading to potential withdrawals from the market [8]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The outlook for shipping prices remains pessimistic unless significant economic stimuli occur, with potential for further capacity adjustments among shipping companies [9].

Core Insights - The traditional peak season for shipping has arrived in Q3, but shipping prices between China and the U.S. have significantly dropped, leading to low export willingness among traders [1] Shipping Industry Overview - The peak season for exports on the U.S. routes typically runs from June to October, but current cargo volumes and inquiries are notably low [1] - Recent shipping prices for the East U.S. route have fallen to $3,300-$3,800 per FEU (40-foot standard container), while the West U.S. route is at $1,700-$1,800 per FEU [1] - In comparison, prices peaked in early June, reaching $7,000 per FEU for the East U.S. route and $6,000 per FEU for the West U.S. route [1] - The West U.S. route has seen a price drop of approximately 70%, while the East U.S. route has decreased by around 50% [1] Company Actions - Industry insiders indicate that the current pricing for the West U.S. route is nearing the cost price for shipping companies [1] - Two shipping companies have already reduced their capacity on the West U.S. route, with the possibility of other companies following suit [1]

Core Viewpoint - The shipping market between China and the United States is experiencing a rapid recovery in both sea and air transport due to eased tariffs, leading to significant increases in freight rates and cargo volumes [1][2]. Group 1: Sea Freight Market - The "rush shipping" logic is driving an early peak season for routes to the U.S., as companies are stockpiling inventory in anticipation of potential policy uncertainties [1]. - The Shanghai Shipping Exchange reported a 10% increase in the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) to 1479.39 points, with a notable 31.7% rise in market rates from Shanghai to U.S. West Coast ports [1]. - Freight rates from major Chinese ports to New York have surged approximately 55%, with current quotes ranging from $3700 to $4550 per container [2]. Group 2: Air Freight Market - The air freight market is also seeing a significant rebound, with a reported 10% increase in air freight rates and tight capacity due to rising demand from companies like Amazon [2][3]. - The "90-day window" is expected to boost air cargo volumes on trans-Pacific routes, although the long-term outlook remains uncertain [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The potential for port congestion in the U.S. is high due to increased trade volumes, which may lead to ships being forced to wait offshore, consuming capacity and complicating logistics [2]. - The limited ability to increase air freight capacity quickly due to reliance on cargo and passenger aircraft means that price adjustments are the primary method for airlines and freight forwarders to manage supply and demand [3].