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聚焦四中全会 | 盛松成:经济高质量发展需平衡好消费和投资
Jing Ji Guan Cha Bao· 2025-11-02 05:44
Group 1 - The core viewpoint emphasizes the need for a balanced approach between consumption and investment to achieve high-quality economic development in China [2][4] - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is crucial for realizing the second centenary goal by 2035, with a target of maintaining an average annual GDP growth rate of over 4.5% [2][3] - The focus on innovation-driven development highlights the importance of a modern industrial system and the integration of technological and industrial innovation [3][4] Group 2 - The strategy to expand domestic demand prioritizes boosting consumption and improving investment efficiency, marking a significant shift in macroeconomic policy [4][5] - The report indicates that the proportion of productive service industries in China's GDP is just over 30%, significantly lower than the U.S. at 47.5%, indicating room for growth [3][4] - The need for a virtuous cycle between consumption and investment is emphasized, with a call for policies that enhance consumer spending and effective investment [4][6] Group 3 - The internationalization of the RMB and exchange rate policies are to adapt to new realities, with a focus on expanding high-level opening-up and achieving win-win cooperation [5][6] - China's foreign direct investment (ODI) has surpassed foreign direct investment inflows (FDI) since 2015, reflecting a shift towards a dual investment strategy [5][6] - The proportion of cross-border transactions in RMB has reached 30%, with some regions exceeding 50%, indicating a growing trend towards using RMB in international trade [6]
经济高质量发展需平衡好消费和投资|宏观经济
清华金融评论· 2025-10-27 10:39
Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article emphasizes the importance of the "14th Five-Year Plan" as a crucial step towards achieving the second centenary goal by 2035, focusing on high-quality economic development and the balance between qualitative improvement and reasonable quantitative growth [2][3]. - The plan sets a target for maintaining an average annual GDP growth rate of over 4.5% over the next decade, aiming for a per capita GDP exceeding $20,000 by 2035 [3]. - The article highlights the significance of innovation-driven economic development, particularly through the integration of technological and industrial innovation, with a focus on enhancing the productive service sector [5][6]. Group 2 - The article discusses the need for a virtuous cycle between consumption and investment to expand domestic demand, marking a significant shift in macroeconomic policy towards boosting consumption and improving investment efficiency [8][9]. - It suggests that effective consumption can stimulate total demand and promote high-quality investment, advocating for a balanced interaction between consumption and investment [8][9]. - The article also mentions the importance of tax reforms to enhance local government incentives for promoting consumption, such as optimizing the VAT distribution mechanism [9]. Group 3 - The article addresses the internationalization of the RMB and the need for exchange rate policies to adapt to new circumstances, highlighting China's dual investment strategy of "bringing in" and "going out" [10][11]. - It notes that China's direct investment outflow has surpassed foreign direct investment inflow since 2015, with a diversification of trade partners and a decrease in trade concentration among the top three partners [11]. - The article suggests that the RMB could be considered a quasi-safe-haven currency, which would enhance its role in global investment portfolios and mitigate capital outflow pressures [12].