Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report The report suggests a temporary wait - and - see approach or a bullish mindset. Zinc ore imports are rising as long - term agreement ores arrive at ports and smelters stockpile for winter. However, domestic zinc ore processing fees are down, sulfuric acid prices are falling, squeezing smelter profits and causing losses for some. New production capacity is being released, but refined zinc output growth is limited. Overseas zinc supply is tight, the SHFE - LME ratio has dropped significantly, and the export window has opened, with a shift to net exports expected. The traditional "Golden September and Silver October" peak season had a lackluster effect, with the real estate sector being a drag, while the automotive and home appliance sectors had some bright spots due to policy support. Domestic social inventories have increased, and the spot premium is low. LME inventories are continuously decreasing, and the spot premium has reached a 27 - year high, intensifying the supply - tight situation [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the SHFE zinc main contract is 22,345 yuan/ton, up 345 yuan; the 11 - 12 - month contract spread is - 45 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan. - The LME three - month zinc quote is 3,019.5 dollars/ton, up 26 dollars. - The total SHFE zinc open interest is 216,678 lots, down 13,155 lots; the net position of the top 20 in SHFE zinc is 5,255 lots, up 8,190 lots. - The SHFE zinc warehouse receipts are 65,529 tons, up 320 tons; the SHFE inventory is 109,627 tons, up 2,677 tons; the LME inventory is 35,300 tons, down 1,975 tons [3]. 3.2现货市场 - The SMM 0 zinc spot price is 22,100 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan; the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market 1 zinc spot price is 22,220 yuan/ton, up 440 yuan. - The ZN main contract basis is - 245 yuan/ton, down 145 yuan; the LME zinc cash - 3 spread is 338.74 dollars/ton, up 39.4 dollars. - The arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,920 yuan/ton, up 160 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,800 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan. - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 27,800 tons, down 5,700 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is 30,200 tons, up 57,400 tons [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The ILZSG global zinc mine production is 1.0762 million tons, down 5,200 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 651,000 tons, up 34,000 tons. - The zinc ore import volume is 467,300 tons, down 32,500 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 25,656.83 tons, up 7,752.92 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 310.91 tons, down 95.16 tons. - The zinc social inventory is 163,100 tons, up 7,700 tons. - The production of galvanized sheets is 2.31 million tons, down 40,000 tons; the sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.37 million tons, up 70,000 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The new housing construction area is 453.99 million square meters, up 55.9799 million square meters; the housing completion area is 276.9354 million square meters, up 26.5954 million square meters. - The automobile production is 3.227 million vehicles, up 474,600 vehicles; the air - conditioner production is 16.8188 million units, down 3.7777 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc call option is 14.19%, up 2.16 percentage points; the implied volatility of the at - the - money zinc put option is 14.19%, up 2.16 percentage points. - The 20 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 8.42%, up 0.09 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of the at - the - money zinc option is 9.31%, unchanged [3]. 3.7 Industry News - Chinese Vice - Premier He Lifeng will lead a delegation to Malaysia to hold economic and trade consultations with the US from October 24th to 27th. - The Study Times published an article suggesting improving the linkage between fiscal interest subsidies and financial credit, promoting the coordination of regulatory and industrial policies, and building a long - term mechanism to expand consumption [3].

Group 1: Policy Reforms - The document outlines the implementation of reforms aimed at decoupling basic public services from household registration, allowing non-resident workers to access the same services as local citizens[4] - It emphasizes the need for basic public services to be linked to population changes, promoting a tailored approach for different cities based on their specific circumstances[6] - The central government plans to allocate 400 billion yuan and 420 billion yuan in 2024 and 2025 respectively to support the urbanization of agricultural transfer populations[6] Group 2: Economic Implications - The reforms are expected to enhance the consumption capacity of low- and middle-income groups, particularly migrant workers, by reducing their burdens in areas like education and healthcare[4] - The shift towards a service-oriented government is anticipated to improve public services and attract more population inflow, creating a positive feedback loop for local economies[7] - The report highlights the importance of breaking down barriers in education, healthcare, and housing to ensure equitable access to basic public services across regions[8] Group 3: Risks and Challenges - There is uncertainty regarding the pace of reform implementation, as the process involves multiple sectors and may be complex[10] - Subjectivity in expectations of reform policies could lead to discrepancies between anticipated and actual outcomes[10]