Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In June, both the total CPI and core CPI increased, with the core CPI performing better than expected. The CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year (expected 2.64%, previous 2.4%), and 0.3% month-on-month (0.2 pct higher than the previous month). The core CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year (expected 2.95%, previous 2.8%), and 0.2% month-on-month (0.1 pct higher than the previous month). Neither the CPI nor the core CPI year-on-year has exceeded the inflation level in February this year [2]. - In June, both energy and food in the CPI rebounded. The energy sub - item increased by 0.9% month-on-month (previous - 0.1%), with gasoline prices rising by 1% month-on-month, the largest increase since January. The food sub - item increased by 3.0% year-on-year, higher than the overall CPI increase, and 0.3% month-on-month, with significant increases in fruits, vegetables, and beverages [3]. - From the perspective of demand - sensitive indicators, the prices of used and new cars continued to decline, indicating that tariff shocks are weakening consumer demand and confidence. The US consumer confidence index dropped to 93% in June (previous 98.4%). However, the used - car wholesale market has seen strong growth, and the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index shows that the wholesale price increased by 6.3% year-on-year and 1.59% month-on-month, which may pose an inflation risk in the future and restrict the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm. From the perspective of demand - lagging indicators, the furniture price growth rate increased to 1.0% month-on-month (previous 0.3%), reflecting the real impact of tariffs on prices. The price divergence between essential and non - essential goods is intensifying [4]. - The increase in the service - type CPI was far lower than the overall CPI increase, only returning to the level in April. Housing inflation may be at an inflection point, and the rent levels of various housing - related items have declined. Many service - type CPI sub - items, such as accommodation and motor vehicle insurance, decreased month-on-month, while only medical care services and other essential services increased [5][7]. - Tariff - related commodity prices started to rise, and consumers began to favor low - price commodities. The supply chain has recovered after the tariff suspension, but the accumulated costs of enterprises are being transferred to the retail end. From the demand perspective, consumers are reshaping their consumption structure, giving up service - type consumption and turning to essential and low - price goods [7]. - The inflation pattern has entered a tug - of - war between the one - time push of tariff costs and the trend of weakening endogenous demand. The "tariff cost pushing up inflation" and "salary slowdown and weakening demand" are in a two - way game for prices. In the future, the prices of commodities relying on imports in the supply chain are likely to rise, but it may be a one - time adjustment. Currently, demand has shown a marginal weakening. If there is no special intervention, consumers will reshape the demand pattern. The Fed's attitude towards tariffs is still uncertain, and there are different expectations for future interest - rate cuts [6][7][8]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Important Charts - **CPI and Core CPI Year - on - Year**: The chart shows the year - on - year trends of the US CPI and core CPI, along with their predicted values [15][16]. - **CPI and Core CPI Month - on - Month Trends**: These charts display the month - on - month trends of the CPI and core CPI in 2020 - 2025, allowing for comparisons across different years [17]. - **CPI Sub - item Seasonally - Adjusted Month - on - Month and Year - on - Year Situations**: This table presents detailed data on the seasonally - adjusted month - on - month and year - on - year changes of various CPI sub - items from July 2024 to June 2025 [19][22]. - **International Oil Prices and Used - Car Wholesale Prices**: The international oil prices increased in June due to geopolitical risks but started to decline in July. The used - car wholesale prices showed strong growth [20][21]. - **Rent Level Leading Indicators and Supply Chain Pressure**: The rent level leading indicators are on a downward trend, and the supply chain pressure has returned to equilibrium, but sales have declined [24]. - **Average Hourly Wage Growth and Core CPI Growth Difference**: The difference between the average hourly wage growth and the core CPI growth is narrowing. If the wage growth continues to be higher than the inflation rate, it may lead to a "wage - price" spiral [25][26][28]. - **Average Hourly Wage Growth and Productivity Growth Difference**: The difference between the average hourly wage growth and the productivity growth is widening. If the wage growth continues to be higher than the productivity growth, it may lead to a vicious cycle [25][27][28]. 2. Risk Warning - No relevant content will be included as per the requirements