美国钢铝关税政策再度升级。 当地时间19日，美国商务部正式发布公告，宣布将407个产品类别纳入钢铁和铝的关税清单，适用税率为 50%。 扩大的关税清单已于18日正式生效。 有专家警告，美方此举可能会进一步加剧其国内的供应链压力并 推高物价。 CNBC 蒋钰： 当地时间周二，美国商务部正式宣布，扩大50%钢铝关税的征收范围，会将407个产品类别添加 到原本的关税清单当中，其中将包括不少业界没有预料到会被征收关税的产品，例如婴儿车和除臭喷雾等。 国际物流供应商德迅公司海关事务副总裁就扩大后的商品清单，评论表示：现在包括汽车零部件、化学品、塑 料、家具部件，基本上只要是有光泽的、金属的，或者和钢铝稍有关系的，都可能出现在征税清单上。 并且， 此次征税范围扩大的政策发生得很突然。 当地时间上周五，美国政府才和美国国内的进口商们下发通 知，就表示新关税将在美东时间本周一凌晨生效， 这让许多美国进口商们措手不及。 现在 许多美国进口商也处于进退两难的境地 ，他们已经付款的货物正在运输途中。如果选择接收，就必须缴 纳大幅增加的关税；但如果他们不想承担关税，让货运公司别在美国港口卸货，那他们又需要承受货物无法入 境所带来的损 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent increase in China's rare earth exports has led to a notable shift in the U.S. stance, particularly from Trump, who is now showing a more conciliatory approach and expressing intentions to visit China, indicating a potential turning point in U.S.-China relations [1][3]. Group 1: Rare Earth Exports - China's rare earth magnet exports to the U.S. surged from less than 60 tons in May to 353 tons in June, marking a 660% increase, while total rare earth exports rose from 1,238 tons to 3,188 tons, a 157.5% increase [3]. - The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has accelerated the approval process for rare earth export controls to ensure national security while meeting reasonable demands from other countries [3][8]. Group 2: U.S. Response - The Trump administration responded by restoring exports of NVIDIA's H20 AI chips to China and easing restrictions on General Electric's jet engine parts [5]. - The White House has relaxed visa and investment restrictions for China and indicated that plans for a presidential visit to China are underway, alongside intensifying the third round of U.S.-China trade negotiations [5][7]. Group 3: Strategic Considerations - The recent trade consensus and the established 90-day tariff ceasefire highlight the U.S.'s need to expand its market and alleviate supply chain pressures, with rare earths being a critical component [7]. - Trump's domestic economic challenges and election pressures necessitate a visit to China to secure agreements that could enhance his political image ahead of the midterm elections [7][8]. Group 4: Geopolitical Implications - Rare earths are essential for electric vehicles, wind energy, and high-end defense equipment, with China controlling over 90% of the global rare earth market [8]. - The U.S. risks losing its competitive edge in key resources if it over-regulates, potentially pushing allies like the EU, Japan, and South Korea closer to China [8][9]. Group 5: Future Outlook - The series of events from China's export expansion to Trump's attitude shift indicates that despite intense competition, there remains room for dialogue between the U.S. and China, highlighting their interdependent relationship [9]. - The sustainability of this "peaceful situation" is uncertain, influenced by internal divisions within Trump's team and domestic hawkish pressures [9].

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content found Group 2: Core Views of the Report - In June, both the total CPI and core CPI increased, with the core CPI performing better than expected. The CPI increased by 2.7% year-on-year (expected 2.64%, previous 2.4%), and 0.3% month-on-month (0.2 pct higher than the previous month). The core CPI increased by 2.9% year-on-year (expected 2.95%, previous 2.8%), and 0.2% month-on-month (0.1 pct higher than the previous month). Neither the CPI nor the core CPI year-on-year has exceeded the inflation level in February this year [2]. - In June, both energy and food in the CPI rebounded. The energy sub - item increased by 0.9% month-on-month (previous - 0.1%), with gasoline prices rising by 1% month-on-month, the largest increase since January. The food sub - item increased by 3.0% year-on-year, higher than the overall CPI increase, and 0.3% month-on-month, with significant increases in fruits, vegetables, and beverages [3]. - From the perspective of demand - sensitive indicators, the prices of used and new cars continued to decline, indicating that tariff shocks are weakening consumer demand and confidence. The US consumer confidence index dropped to 93% in June (previous 98.4%). However, the used - car wholesale market has seen strong growth, and the Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index shows that the wholesale price increased by 6.3% year-on-year and 1.59% month-on-month, which may pose an inflation risk in the future and restrict the Fed's interest - rate cut rhythm. From the perspective of demand - lagging indicators, the furniture price growth rate increased to 1.0% month-on-month (previous 0.3%), reflecting the real impact of tariffs on prices. The price divergence between essential and non - essential goods is intensifying [4]. - The increase in the service - type CPI was far lower than the overall CPI increase, only returning to the level in April. Housing inflation may be at an inflection point, and the rent levels of various housing - related items have declined. Many service - type CPI sub - items, such as accommodation and motor vehicle insurance, decreased month-on-month, while only medical care services and other essential services increased [5][7]. - Tariff - related commodity prices started to rise, and consumers began to favor low - price commodities. The supply chain has recovered after the tariff suspension, but the accumulated costs of enterprises are being transferred to the retail end. From the demand perspective, consumers are reshaping their consumption structure, giving up service - type consumption and turning to essential and low - price goods [7]. - The inflation pattern has entered a tug - of - war between the one - time push of tariff costs and the trend of weakening endogenous demand. The "tariff cost pushing up inflation" and "salary slowdown and weakening demand" are in a two - way game for prices. In the future, the prices of commodities relying on imports in the supply chain are likely to rise, but it may be a one - time adjustment. Currently, demand has shown a marginal weakening. If there is no special intervention, consumers will reshape the demand pattern. The Fed's attitude towards tariffs is still uncertain, and there are different expectations for future interest - rate cuts [6][7][8]. Group 3: Summaries According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Important Charts - **CPI and Core CPI Year - on - Year**: The chart shows the year - on - year trends of the US CPI and core CPI, along with their predicted values [15][16]. - **CPI and Core CPI Month - on - Month Trends**: These charts display the month - on - month trends of the CPI and core CPI in 2020 - 2025, allowing for comparisons across different years [17]. - **CPI Sub - item Seasonally - Adjusted Month - on - Month and Year - on - Year Situations**: This table presents detailed data on the seasonally - adjusted month - on - month and year - on - year changes of various CPI sub - items from July 2024 to June 2025 [19][22]. - **International Oil Prices and Used - Car Wholesale Prices**: The international oil prices increased in June due to geopolitical risks but started to decline in July. The used - car wholesale prices showed strong growth [20][21]. - **Rent Level Leading Indicators and Supply Chain Pressure**: The rent level leading indicators are on a downward trend, and the supply chain pressure has returned to equilibrium, but sales have declined [24]. - **Average Hourly Wage Growth and Core CPI Growth Difference**: The difference between the average hourly wage growth and the core CPI growth is narrowing. If the wage growth continues to be higher than the inflation rate, it may lead to a "wage - price" spiral [25][26][28]. - **Average Hourly Wage Growth and Productivity Growth Difference**: The difference between the average hourly wage growth and the productivity growth is widening. If the wage growth continues to be higher than the productivity growth, it may lead to a vicious cycle [25][27][28]. 2. Risk Warning - No relevant content will be included as per the requirements

Core Insights - Airbus executives stated that supply chain pressures have "significantly improved" [1] Group 1 - The company has experienced a notable enhancement in its supply chain situation, which is expected to positively impact production and delivery timelines [1]

Core Insights - The shipping and logistics data is being closely monitored by Wall Street to assess the impact of the Trump administration's tariff policies on the economy [1] - The Dow Jones Transportation Average has underperformed the Dow Jones Industrial Average by over 9 percentage points this year, marking its worst performance in the past decade [1] Shipping Industry - Major freight companies in the U.S., such as J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Knight-Swift Transportation Holdings, and Matson, have seen their stock prices plummet this year [2] - There has been a significant decline in container shipping bookings to the U.S., with a 60% drop reported since April 9, according to Flexport [4] - Nearly 30% of trans-Pacific voyages to the U.S. have been canceled as of the week of May 4 [4] - The import volume at the Port of Los Angeles is expected to decrease by 35% compared to the same period last year [4] Trucking Industry - Trucking companies are reducing orders for heavy trucks due to tariff concerns, with net orders in North America falling to 16,500 units in March, a year-over-year decline of 5.9% [5] - The cancellation rate for truck orders has reached a two-year high, and dealer inventories have hit a record 91,600 units [5] - Truck drivers are facing profit levels similar to those during the global financial crisis [5] Supply Chain - The GEP Global Supply Chain Volatility Index reached a five-year low in March, driven by reduced manufacturing activity in North America [6] - Companies are preparing for higher procurement costs and potential consumer spending slowdowns, with expectations of further reductions in April readings [6]

【行情回顾】 周二（5月6日）因美国可能对进口药品征收关税，亚洲买家节后重返黄金市场，现货黄金周二再度大涨 近100美元，最终收涨2.85%，报3431.11美元/盎司；周三亚盘初，黄金日内跌近1%，早盘跌近30美元， 下触3400美元/盎司。现货白银周二收涨2.33%，报33.22美元/盎司。 【要闻汇总】 摘要周二（5月6日）因美国可能对进口药品征收关税，亚洲买家节后重返黄金市场，现货黄金周二再度 大涨近100美元，最终收涨2.85%，报3431.11美元/盎司；周三亚盘初，黄金日内跌近1%，早盘跌近30美 元，下触3400美元/盎司。现货白银周二收涨2.33%，报33.22美元/盎司。 由于关税将进一步推高物价压力，通胀仍处于高位。劳动力市场依然稳固，与经济放缓的预期背道而 驰。这使得美联储"除了推迟市场宽松预期，强调潜在经济状况的弹性之外，几乎没有其他行动的余 地"。 【交易思路】 国际黄金：下方关注3382美元或3366美元附近支撑；上方关注3450美元或3500美元附近阻力； 现货白银：下方关注32.95美元或32.75美元支撑；上方关注33.40美元或33.65美元阻力。 上个月，美国供应链压力 ...

Market Overview - Major indices in the US closed lower, with the Dow Jones down 389.83 points (0.95%) at 40829.00, Nasdaq down 154.58 points (0.87%) at 17689.66, and S&P 500 down 43.47 points (0.77%) at 5606.91 [1] - European markets showed mixed results, with Germany's DAX30 down 85.84 points (0.37%) at 23249.58, while the UK FTSE 100 rose slightly by 2.92 points (0.03%) to 8599.27 [1] Currency Market - The US Dollar Index fell by 0.59% to 99.237, with the Euro rising to 1.1371 USD from 1.1313 USD, and the British Pound increasing to 1.3376 USD from 1.3289 USD [2] Cryptocurrency and Commodities - Bitcoin increased by 0.51% to 95312.49 USD, while Ethereum dropped over 1.6% to 1791.71 USD [3] - Spot gold prices rose above 3400 USD, with local jewelry prices also increasing, such as Chow Tai Fook's gold price at 1026 CNY per gram, up 28 CNY [3] - Crude oil prices saw significant increases, with NYMEX light crude up 1.96 USD (3.43%) to 59.09 USD per barrel, and Brent crude up 1.92 USD (3.19%) to 62.15 USD per barrel [3] Corporate News - AMD reported first-quarter earnings that exceeded expectations, with a 36% year-over-year revenue increase to 7.44 billion USD, driven by a 57% growth in its data center segment [7] - Microsoft is launching two low-end Surface tablets to promote its AI tools, with the Surface Laptop starting at 899 USD and the Surface Pro at 799 USD, aiming to compete with Apple's devices [8]

Global Economic Overview - The global economic landscape is characterized by divergence, with the US showing moderate growth supported by consumer spending, while investment lags behind [1] - Japan's economy is experiencing mild growth with balanced contributions across sectors [1] - Emerging markets like China are growing at their own pace, with consumption, investment, and net exports contributing positively, although the real estate sector is facing adjustments [1] - India is showing strong economic growth momentum [1] - Global inflation levels vary, with some countries facing significant inflationary pressures, while China is experiencing deflationary signs [1] - Supply chain pressures have eased globally, leading to a decrease in freight costs [1] Stock Market Performance - Global stock market returns vary significantly by region, with some Asian markets like Taiwan and China performing exceptionally well over the past decade [2] - Different markets exhibit unique characteristics in terms of earnings expectations, valuations, and dividend performance [2] - The technology sector is gaining attention, particularly with high earnings growth expectations for Chinese tech companies and significant growth in India's telecommunications services sector [2] - The US stock market is noted for its high concentration, with the top ten companies having a substantial impact on the index [2] Fixed Income Market Dynamics - The global fixed income market shows complex dynamics, with varying returns across different bond categories [3] - Emerging market local currency bonds and Asian high-yield bonds have performed well during certain periods [3] - The yield, duration, and interest rate sensitivity of bonds differ, affecting market returns [3] - The spread changes between investment-grade and high-yield bonds influence market performance [3] - Emerging market bonds exhibit volatility in spreads and returns compared to US Treasuries, while the Asian fixed income market has its own trends [3] Other Asset Classes - The US dollar's exchange rate is related to interest rate differentials, and commodity prices are subject to fluctuations [4] - Gold prices are influenced by real interest rates, while oil prices are affected by supply and demand dynamics [4] - Alternative asset classes show varying returns and volatility, with different correlations to traditional assets, which can help in risk diversification within investment portfolios [4]

Investment Rating - The report provides a "Buy" rating for stocks, indicating an expected relative increase of over 20% compared to the benchmark index within six months [32]. Core Insights - The February inflation data in the U.S. showed a significant cooling, with the CPI increasing by 2.8% year-on-year, below the expected 2.9% and the previous value of 3% [12]. - Core inflation also fell short of expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, compared to the anticipated 3.2% [12]. - The decline in transportation costs, particularly a 4% drop in airfare, was a major contributor to the lower CPI [14]. - The report suggests that core service inflation is continuing to cool, with rent growth decreasing to 4.3% year-on-year, down from around 6% at the beginning of 2024 [2][19]. - Concerns about the potential inflationary impact of tariff policies are noted, but historical data indicates limited effects from previous tariff increases [23]. Summary by Sections Section 1: U.S. February Inflation Data - The February CPI data was significantly below expectations, with a year-on-year increase of 2.8% and a month-on-month increase of 0.2% [12]. - The core CPI also showed a year-on-year increase of 3.1%, indicating a cooling trend in inflation [12][11]. Section 2: Core Service Inflation - Core service inflation is on a downward trend, with housing rent growth decreasing to 4.3% year-on-year [2][19]. - Other service-related price increases linked to labor costs are also showing a downward trend [2]. Section 3: Tariff Policies and Inflation - The report discusses concerns regarding the potential inflationary effects of new tariff policies, referencing the 2018-2019 tariff increases that did not lead to significant inflation [23][20]. - It concludes that if tariffs are targeted rather than broad, their impact on inflation may be limited [29].