1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Views of the Report - The yield per unit of US corn may be lowered later, and the price of the December contract of US corn has strong support at 400 cents per bushel. The price of domestic corn spot is expected to continue to decline, and the 01 corn contract is expected to fluctuate at the bottom. The starch market is weak, with the operating rate and price of starch both decreasing, and the loss of starch factories expanding. The price of wheat, a substitute for corn, is basically stable [4]. - The net short position of non - commercial traders in US corn has decreased, and the ethanol production is stable. In the domestic market, the inventory of deep - processing enterprises and northern ports has decreased, while the grain inventory in southern ports has increased [15][23]. - The breeding profits of pigs, broilers, and laying hens have different degrees of change. The operating rates of starch sugar and paper mills in the downstream of corn starch have decreased [45][51][54]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Chapter 1: Comprehensive Analysis and Trading Strategies - **Market Situation Analysis** - US corn is expected to have a high yield, but the yield per unit may be lowered later. The 400 - cent - per - bushel support for the December contract of US corn is strong, and it will fluctuate in the short term. Domestic corn is continuously auctioned, and new corn in North China will be listed in mid - to - late September. The price of Shandong corn is expected to fall to around 2,200 yuan per ton, and the price of domestic corn spot is expected to continue to decline [4]. - The planting cost of new - season corn has decreased, but farmers may be reluctant to sell. The 01 corn contract is expected to fluctuate at the bottom and should be operated according to seasonal rules [4]. - **Trading Strategies** - For single - side trading, consider buying the December contract of US corn around 400 cents per bushel and short - selling the 01 corn contract lightly above 2,200 yuan per ton [5]. - For arbitrage and options trading, it is recommended to wait and see [5]. Chapter 2: Core Logic Analysis - **International Market** - The yield per unit of US corn may be lowered, and the price has rebounded. The December contract has strong support at 400 cents per bushel. The import tariffs of US corn and sorghum are 26% and 23% respectively, and the domestic import profit has expanded [8]. - As of August 26, the non - commercial net short position of US corn was 70,000 lots, showing a decrease. The ethanol production in the US is stable [15]. - **Domestic Market** - The inventory of feed enterprises has decreased. As of September 4, the average corn inventory of 47 large - scale feed enterprises was 27.63 days, a decrease of 0.5 days compared with the previous week and a year - on - year decrease of 5.12% [19]. - The consumption of deep - processing enterprises is stable. From August 28 to September 4, 2025, 149 major domestic corn deep - processing enterprises consumed 1.143 million tons of corn, an increase of 0.29 million tons compared with the previous week. The inventory of deep - processing enterprises has decreased. As of September 3, the corn inventory of 96 deep - processing enterprises was 2.711 million tons, a decrease of 7.85% compared with the previous week [20]. - The corn inventory in northern ports has decreased, while the grain inventory in southern ports has increased. As of August 28, the corn inventory in the four northern ports was 1.127 million tons, a decrease of 145,000 tons compared with the previous week. The total grain inventory in Guangdong Port increased by 78,000 tons [23]. - The operating rate of the starch industry has decreased. From August 28 to September 4, the national corn processing volume was 515,500 tons, and the starch output was 246,800 tons, a decrease of 17,100 tons compared with the previous week. The operating rate was 47.7%, a decrease of 3.31% compared with the previous week. The profit of starch factories has decreased, and the inventory has decreased. As of September 3, the corn starch inventory was 1.265 million tons, a decrease of 53,000 tons compared with the previous week [26]. - The price of wheat, a substitute for corn, is basically stable, with the arrival price in North China at around 2,430 yuan per ton [34]. Chapter 3: Weekly Data Tracking - **Livestock and Poultry Breeding** - From August 28 to September 4, the self - breeding and self - raising profit of pigs was 24 yuan per head, an increase of 32 yuan per head compared with the previous week, and the profit of purchasing piglets for breeding was - 184 yuan per head, an increase of 26 yuan per head compared with the previous week [45]. - The breeding profit of white - feather broilers was 0.95 yuan per chicken, down from 1.6 yuan per chicken in the previous week [51]. - The breeding cost of laying hens was 3.53 yuan per catty, and the breeding profit was - 0.36 yuan per catty, an increase from - 0.4 yuan per catty in the previous week [51]. - **Starch Downstream Consumption** - The operating rate of starch sugar has decreased. The operating rate of F55 high - fructose corn syrup was 57.68%, a decrease of 0.68% compared with the previous week, and the operating rate of maltose syrup was 48.36%, a decrease of 0.94% compared with the previous week [54]. - The operating rate of paper mills has decreased. The operating rate of corrugated paper was 63.37%, a decrease of 0.05% compared with the previous week, and the operating rate of containerboard was 69.13%, a decrease of 1.04% compared with the previous week [54]. - **Price and Spread** - The price and spread data of corn and its substitutes, as well as the basis and spread data of corn and corn starch futures contracts, are presented through various charts, but specific numerical analysis is not provided in the text [55][63].

研究所 期货高位调整 基差被动走强 ——国信期货玉米周报 2025年05月18日 研究所 1 周度分析与展望 目 录 2 关键数据与图表 CONTENTS 周度观点 研究所 本周全国玉米现货先涨后稳，总体高位盘整格局。东北地区总体偏稳，华北地区稳中有调，北方港口稳定，南方港口小 幅上涨。期货多头获利离场为主，表现弱于现货，使得基差走高。基本面来看，根据农业农村部预估，新季玉米播种面积及产 量预计较上年稳中有增，但东北产区春播以来天气偏潮湿，播种进度较正常偏慢；旧作玉米继续消耗，北方港口库存及南方港 口库存高位小幅回落，后期预计延续去库趋势；需求端，饲料工业协会最新工业饲料生产数据同比增加明显，继续验证养殖部 门刚需的提升，但因整体养殖利润不佳，饲料企业原料库存相对高位下进一步补库动力不足。此外，小麦-玉米价差偏低，替 代作用下，玉米的饲用需求也受到抑制。深加工利润继续恶化，开机率有所下降，后期深加工需求或表现不佳。总体来看，玉 米后期库存继续去化，但需求端受到深加工开机率下滑及替代因素的压制，预计价格呈现上有顶下有底的震荡运行格局。操作 上，震荡思路。 免责声明：本报告以投资者教育为目的，不构成任何投资建议 ...