Report Industry Investment Rating - The mid - term outlook for the black building materials industry is "oscillation" [6] Core Viewpoints - In the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is becoming more obvious, the fundamentals lack highlights, and the futures prices are under pressure. The resumption of production by steel mills is slow, the high shipping volume and high inventory of iron ore still pose pressure, and its futures prices are weak. The support for coal - coke replenishment is gradually weakening, but there is an expectation of supply tightening for coking coal before the Spring Festival, and the futures prices are oscillating. There are disturbances on the supply side of glass, but the oversupply situation limits the upside space of glass and soda ash futures prices. Overall, the fundamentals in the off - season are lackluster, and the futures prices are under pressure, but there is still replenishment demand before the Spring Festival, and the cost side still provides support. The sector is expected to oscillate widely at the bottom, and attention should be paid to macro - policy disturbances [1][2][3] Summary by Directory Iron Element - The inventory pressure continues to increase, there are still expectations of weather disturbances on the supply side, and the post - holiday demand is uncertain. The supply and demand on the real - world side remain to be verified, and attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment. The supply and daily consumption of scrap steel are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment nears completion, the overall fundamentals will gradually weaken, and the spot prices are expected to follow the prices of finished steel products [2] Carbon Element - The growth space for coke supply is limited, while the expectation of downstream steel mill复产 still exists. The coke supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force in the fundamentals is also limited. The spot prices are expected to remain stable for the time being, and the futures prices are expected to follow the cost - side coking coal. As domestic coal mines approach the holiday, production will gradually decline, and the fundamentals of coking coal will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force in the fundamentals is also limited. The spot prices may oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the fluctuations in the current sentiment of the futures prices remain to be observed, and they are expected to oscillate [2] Alloys - The manganese - silicon market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream has great pressure to reduce inventory. When the futures prices rise to a high level, they may face selling - hedging pressure. The futures prices of the main contract are expected to oscillate around the cost valuation. The silicon - iron market has weak supply and demand, with limited fundamental driving force. The low trading activity suppresses the upside space of the futures prices. In the long - term, the futures prices may still oscillate around the cost valuation [3] Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of disturbances on the glass supply side, but the inventories of the middle and lower reaches are moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will suppress prices, and the prices are expected to oscillate weakly; otherwise, the prices will rise. The overall supply and demand of soda ash are still in an oversupply situation. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and in the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [3] Specific Products - **Steel**: In the off - season, the pressure of inventory accumulation in the steel sector is obvious, the fundamentals lack highlights, but there is no expectation of negative feedback, and the cost side provides support. The futures prices are expected to oscillate widely. The spot market transactions are generally weak, the profitability of steel mills has slightly shrunk, the iron - water output has remained stable month - on - month, and the output of the five major steel products has slightly increased. The demand for building materials has weakened seasonally, while the demand for hot - rolled coils still has some resilience [8] - **Iron Ore**: The market sentiment has weakened, and the spot and futures prices are under pressure. Overseas mine shipments have increased month - on - month, the arrivals have continued to weaken, and the supply side is subject to weather - related disturbance expectations. The iron - water output has slightly decreased month - on - month, and the steel mills' replenishment has accelerated. The port inventory has continued to increase, and the overall inventory pressure is still accumulating [8][9] - **Scrap Steel**: The supply and demand both decline seasonally, and the price in East China has increased slightly. The supply and daily consumption are expected to decline seasonally. As the replenishment nears completion, the overall fundamentals will gradually weaken, and the spot prices are expected to follow the finished steel products. The arrival volume of steel mills will decline seasonally, the daily consumption of electric furnaces and blast furnaces will decrease, and the inventory of steel enterprises has increased [10] - **Coke**: The fundamentals have limited changes, and the futures prices remain oscillating. The supply growth space is limited, and the downstream steel mill复产 expectation still exists. The supply - demand structure will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force in the fundamentals is also limited. The spot prices are expected to remain stable, and the futures prices are expected to follow the cost - side coking coal [11][13] - **Coking Coal**: The online auctions show a mixed trend of rising and falling, and the futures prices oscillate. The domestic coal mine production will gradually decline before the holiday, and the fundamentals will remain healthy, but the bullish driving force in the fundamentals is also limited. The spot prices may oscillate before the Spring Festival, and the fluctuations in the current sentiment of the futures prices remain to be observed, and they are expected to oscillate [14] - **Glass**: As the holiday approaches, the demand weakens, and the real - world contradictions are limited. The supply may be disturbed, but the inventories of the middle and lower reaches are moderately high, and the current supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. If there is no more cold - repair by the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress prices [15] - **Soda Ash**: The daily production remains at a high level, and the prices oscillate. The overall supply and demand are still in an oversupply situation. It is expected to oscillate in the short - term, and in the long - term, the oversupply pattern will further intensify, and the price center will continue to decline, promoting capacity reduction [15][18] - **Manganese - Silicon**: The inventory pressure remains high, and the prices fluctuate around the cost. The market continues to be in a state of loose supply and demand, and the upstream has great pressure to reduce inventory. The futures prices of the main contract are expected to oscillate around the cost valuation, and attention should be paid to the adjustment range of raw material prices and the production - control efforts of manufacturers [19] - **Silicon - Iron**: The trading volume is gradually decreasing, and the upside of the futures prices is under pressure. The market has weak supply and demand, with limited fundamental driving force. The low trading activity before the holiday suppresses the upside space of the futures prices. The futures prices are expected to oscillate around the cost valuation, and attention should be paid to the adjustment range of semi - coke prices and settlement electricity prices, as well as the production - control trends in the main production areas [21]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The report gives a mid - term outlook of "sideways" for the entire black building materials sector, including steel, iron ore, scrap steel, coke, coking coal, glass, soda ash, ferrosilicon, and silicomanganese [7][8][9]. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Politburo meeting did not release any signals beyond expectations. Attention should be paid to the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference and the overseas interest - rate cut rhythm. The profitability of steel mills has improved recently, and it is expected that steel production will not decline significantly in the later period. The fundamentals are still under pressure after entering the off - season, and the steel futures market is running weakly. There is a seasonal weakening expectation for hot metal, and there is an expectation of an increase in Mongolian coal imports. The iron ore and coking coal markets were weak during the day session and showed signs of stabilization at night. The supply - demand surplus of glass and soda ash continues to suppress the futures prices [1]. - Overall, the fundamentals in the off - season are not good. Without any signals beyond expectations from the Politburo meeting, it is expected that the sector will still face downward adjustment pressure in the short term [6]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Iron Element - Hot metal production has decreased significantly, downstream demand has declined, and steel mills are conducting annual maintenance. Although the profitability of steel mills has slightly improved, the release of restocking demand is still slow. Overseas mine shipments have increased slightly month - on - month, with Australian shipments rebounding, Brazilian shipments rising and then falling, and non - mainstream shipments increasing significantly. The arrivals this period have decreased significantly month - on - month, but port inventories have continued to accumulate, and steel mill inventories have increased month - on - month, with overall inventory accumulation pressure. The fundamental contradictions of scrap steel are limited. After the spot price has fallen, its cost - effectiveness has recovered. The profits of electric arc furnaces are acceptable, and the demand for scrap steel from long - and short - process steel enterprises is still supported. It is expected that the scrap steel price will fluctuate [2]. 3.2 Carbon Element - The cost support for coke has weakened, and there is a strong expectation of further price cuts. However, there is still an expectation of winter restocking for raw materials in mid - to late December, and the fundamentals still provide support. Currently, the futures valuation is too low, and there is insufficient driving force for a further significant decline. It is expected to fluctuate following coking coal. It will take time to reverse the pessimistic sentiment in the coking coal market. The downstream winter restocking that will start in mid - to late December may gradually improve the fundamentals and market sentiment. Based on the expectation that the weakening of the coking coal supply - demand pattern is limited, the low - level valuation of the futures market is expected to gradually recover [2]. 3.3 Alloys - The firm cost supports the price, but the market supply - demand is in a loose state, the cost transfer is not smooth, and there is insufficient driving force for the futures price to rise. It is expected that the ferrosilicon manganese futures price will mainly fluctuate at a low level. The high - level cost supports the bottom of the ferrosilicon price, but the market has weak supply and demand, and there are still difficulties in destocking. Caution should be exercised regarding the upward space of the futures price. It is expected that the ferrosilicon futures price will mainly fluctuate at a low level [2]. 3.4 Glass and Soda Ash - There are still expectations of supply disruptions, but the inventories of middle - and downstream enterprises are moderately high. From a fundamental perspective, the current supply - demand is still in surplus. If there is no more cold - repair before the end of the year, the high inventory will always suppress the price, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly; otherwise, the price will rise. The soda ash industry price is approaching the cost, and the bottom support is relatively obvious. Recently, the cold - repair of glass has further increased. Although the overall supply - demand is still in surplus, it is expected to fluctuate in the short term. In the long run, the supply - surplus pattern will further intensify, and the price center will still decline, promoting capacity reduction [3][6][12]. 3.5 Specific Products 3.5.1 Steel - The macro support is limited, and the futures market continues to be weak. The spot market transactions are generally weak. Near the end of the year, steel mill maintenance has increased, iron and steel production has declined from a high level, and the demand for building materials has weakened significantly. The overall steel inventory continues to decline, but the current inventory level is still higher than the same period last year. The Politburo meeting did not release any signals beyond expectations. It is expected that the steel production will not decline significantly in the later period, and the futures market will run weakly [7]. 3.5.2 Iron Ore - The market sentiment is average, and the price fluctuates. The overseas mine shipments have increased slightly month - on - month, and the arrivals have decreased significantly this period. The demand has declined, and the inventory has accumulated. It is expected that the hot metal output will continue to decline seasonally, and the short - term iron ore price is expected to fluctuate [8]. 3.5.3 Scrap Steel - The arrivals have increased slightly, and the price fluctuates. The supply has increased, and the demand from electric arc furnaces and blast furnaces has changed. The inventory of steel enterprises has increased slightly. The scrap steel fundamentals have limited contradictions, and it is expected that the price will fluctuate [9]. 3.5.4 Coke - The futures market has stabilized at a low level, and there is still an expectation of price cuts in the spot market. The supply is affected by raw material prices and environmental protection, and the demand has declined seasonally. The inventory has slightly accumulated. The cost support has weakened, but there is an expectation of winter restocking. It is expected to fluctuate following coking coal [10]. 3.5.5 Coking Coal - The auction transactions have improved slightly, and the futures market is still running weakly. The domestic supply is at a low level, and the imports have recovered. The demand has declined, and the inventory has accumulated. The pessimistic sentiment needs time to reverse, and the low - level valuation of the futures market is expected to gradually recover [11]. 3.5.6 Glass - The futures and spot transactions have improved, but the spot market is still weak. The supply is expected to decline in the long run but is difficult to have a large - scale cold - repair in the short term. The demand is weak year - on - year, and the high inventory of middle - stream enterprises suppresses the valuation. If there is no further cold - repair, the price may have a downward pressure [12]. 3.5.7 Soda Ash - The warehouse receipts are still increasing, and the price fluctuates at a low level. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is weak. The industry is in the bottom - clearing stage. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term and decline in the long run [12][14]. 3.5.8 Ferrosilicon Manganese - The cost price is firm, and the decline of the futures price is limited. The cost support is strong, the demand from steel mills is weak in the off - season, and the supply is affected by production cuts. It is expected that the futures price will mainly fluctuate at a low level [14]. 3.5.9 Ferrosilicon - The cost reduction space is limited, and the futures price runs at a low level. The cost is at a high level, the demand from steel mills and metal magnesium is weak, and the supply has decreased slightly. It is expected that the futures price will mainly fluctuate at a low level [16].