有色金属 姓名：龙奥明 宝城期货投资咨询部 从业资格证号：F3035632 投资咨询证号：Z0014648 电话：0571-87006873 邮箱：longaoming@bcqhgs.com 作者声明 本人具有中国期货业协会授 予的期货从业资格证书，期货投 资咨询资格证书，本人承诺以勤 勉的职业态度，独立、客观地出 具本报告。本报告清晰准确地反 映了本人的研究观点。本人不会 因本报告中的具体推荐意见或观 点而直接或间接接收到任何形式 的报酬。 2025 年 9 月 22 日 铜铝周报 专业研究·创造价值 宏观扰动下降，产业支撑上升 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 核心观点 铜：宏观扰动下降，产业支撑上升，铜价企稳回升 上周铜价冲高回落，这主要是由于美联储降息利好兑现前后，短 期多头了结意愿较强，沪铜减仓下行明显。此外，伦铜触及年内高 位，有较强的技术压力，这也是多头了结意愿上升。周五以来多头了 结告一段落，铜价企稳回升，夜盘维持强势，沪铜站上 8 万关口，伦 铜触及 1 万美元关口。产业层面，铜价高位下挫叠加产业旺季，下游 补库意愿上升，给予铜价支撑。短期议息会议结束，宏观扰动下降， 产业 ...

Report Overview - Report Title: Morning Report - Iron Ore [1] - Report Date: August 5, 2025 [3] - Report Theme: Iron ore - Macro disturbances weaken, and ore prices operate within a range [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the macro environment enters a window period, and the black series as a whole maintains a high - level consolidation cycle. The support from external ore supply weakens marginally, and external ore shipments will gradually enter a seasonal recovery cycle in August. However, based on the current high profits of blast furnaces and the characteristic that the terminal demand is not weak in the off - season, it is expected that the short - term domestic demand will remain at a relatively high level. The supply and demand of iron ore are in a stage of balance, and port inventories tend to be stable or increase slightly. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures prices will fluctuate at a high level. The price will operate in a range, with the i2601 contract price ranging from 745 yuan/ton to 780 yuan/ton (the domestic market changes contracts at the beginning of this week), and the foreign FE09 contract price ranging from $98.5 to $103 per ton [4] Summary by Directory Logic - The results of the China - US economic and trade talks basically meet expectations, but the expectation of incremental policies from an important domestic meeting fails. The market enters a short - term policy vacuum period, and the trading focus returns to the industrial fundamentals. The black series as a whole enters a high - level consolidation cycle, and attention should be paid to the cost support of short - process steelmaking [3] Supply - The short - term support from the supply side weakens marginally. External ore shipments will gradually enter a seasonal recovery cycle. After the maintenance periods of BHP and FMG mines in Australia end, their shipments increase, while the shipments from Brazil decrease this period. The short - term arrival volume rebounds from a low level, increasing the immediate supply pressure [3] Demand - The daily average pig iron output in China has declined for two consecutive weeks with an expanding decline. The daily average pig iron output this period is 240.71 (a week - on - week decrease of 1.52). However, the profitability rate of steel mills continues to rise, and the blast furnace profit is relatively considerable. The short - term demand for iron ore remains resilient, and the high domestic demand strongly supports the price. Attention should be paid to whether the pig iron output can remain at a high level in the future [3] Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at steel mills remains high. Due to the continuous rise in iron ore prices, steel mills continue to replenish their stocks. As the arrival volume drops to a relatively low - middle level, the port inventory drops significantly this period. Looking forward, with the increase in shipments and the marginal decrease in pig iron output, it is expected that the short - term inventory will generally tend to be stable or increase slightly [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Overseas macro: The adverse impact of Trump's tariff policies on US imports and factory orders in April has emerged, and the May ISM manufacturing and services PMIs were below expectations. Despite recent weak economic data, the better - than - expected May non - farm payrolls and wage growth reduced market expectations of a Fed rate cut. It is expected that the Fed will keep the benchmark overnight rate in the 4.25% - 4.50% range in June [6]. - Domestic macro: Current policies remain stable, and in the short term, existing policies will be fully utilized. Domestic manufacturing enterprise profits are expected to maintain resilience, but export and price data may face pressure. Attention should be paid to "rush re - export" and "rush export" progress and the July Politburo meeting [6]. - Asset views: For major asset classes, maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structured market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Gold is expected to gradually narrow its short - term adjustment range and rise in the medium - to - long - term. Bonds are still worth allocating after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities will return to fundamental logic, showing short - term range - bound fluctuations [6]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Macro Essentials - Overseas: The adverse impact of Trump's tariff policies on US imports and factory orders in April has emerged. The May ISM manufacturing and services PMIs were below expectations, reflecting the continuous impact of tariff policies on demand and inflation. Although economic data was weak, the May non - farm payrolls and wage growth were better than expected, reducing market expectations of a Fed rate cut. It is expected that the Fed will keep the benchmark overnight rate unchanged in June [6]. - Domestic: Policies remain stable, and in the short term, existing policies will be fully utilized. Manufacturing enterprise profits are expected to maintain resilience, but export and price data may face pressure. Attention should be paid to "rush re - export" and "rush export" progress and the July Politburo meeting [6]. - Asset views: Maintain the view of more hedging and volatility overseas and a structured market in China. Strategically allocate gold and non - US dollar assets. Gold is expected to gradually narrow its short - term adjustment range and rise in the medium - to - long - term. Bonds are still worth allocating after the capital pressure eases. Stocks and commodities will return to fundamental logic, showing short - term range - bound fluctuations [6]. 3.2 Viewpoint Highlights 3.2.1 Macro - Domestic: Moderate reserve requirement ratio cuts and interest rate cuts, and the implementation of established fiscal policies in the short term [7]. - Overseas: The inflation expectation structure has flattened, economic growth expectations have improved, and stagflation trading has cooled [7]. 3.2.2 Finance - Stock index futures: Micro - cap risks have not been released, and the market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to the trading congestion of micro - cap stocks [7]. - Stock index options: The market is stable, and cautious covered strategies are recommended. Attention should be paid to option market liquidity [7]. - Treasury bond futures: The short - end may be relatively strong, and the market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to changes in the capital market and policy expectations [7]. 3.2.3 Precious Metals - Gold and silver: The progress of China - US negotiations exceeded expectations, and precious metals will continue to adjust in the short term. Attention should be paid to Trump's tariff policies and the Fed's monetary policy [7]. 3.2.4 Shipping - Container shipping to Europe: Attention should be paid to the game between peak - season expectations and price increase implementation. The market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to tariff policies and shipping company pricing strategies [7]. 3.2.5 Black Building Materials - Steel: After the China - US talks, prices will fluctuate. Attention should be paid to the issuance progress of special bonds, steel exports, and hot metal production [7]. - Iron ore: Small - sample hot metal production slightly decreased, and macro factors will affect prices. The market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to overseas mine production and shipping, domestic hot metal production, weather, port ore inventory, and policy dynamics [7]. - Coke: Demand support is weakening, and market expectations are pessimistic. The market is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coking costs, and macro sentiment [7]. - Coking coal: Upstream production stoppages have increased, but trading has not improved. The market is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to steel mill production, coal mine safety inspections, and macro sentiment [7]. - Other products such as ferrosilicon, manganese silicon, glass, and soda ash are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each [7]. 3.2.6 Non - ferrous Metals and New Materials - Copper: With a weak US dollar index, copper prices are at a high level and are expected to be volatile [7]. - Alumina: Spot prices are falling, and the market is under pressure. The market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to ore production resumption and electrolytic aluminum production resumption [7]. - Aluminum: Affected by Trump's steel and aluminum tariff policies, aluminum prices are at a high level and are expected to be volatile [7]. - Zinc: After progress in China - US economic and trade negotiations, opportunities for shorting zinc at high prices should be noted. The market is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to macro risks and zinc ore supply [7]. - Other non - ferrous metals such as lead, nickel, stainless steel, tin, and industrial silicon are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each [7]. 3.2.7 Energy and Chemicals - Crude oil: Geopolitical risks have intensified, increasing price volatility. The market is expected to be volatile. Attention should be paid to OPEC+ production policies, Russia - Ukraine peace talks, and US sanctions on Iran [9]. - Other products such as LPG, asphalt, high - sulfur fuel oil, low - sulfur fuel oil, methanol, urea, etc. have different short - term trends and influencing factors, mainly showing range - bound fluctuations [9]. 3.2.8 Agriculture - Livestock: For pigs, high average weights will put pressure on spot and near - term prices. The market is expected to decline. Attention should be paid to breeding sentiment, epidemics, and policies [9]. - Other agricultural products such as rubber, synthetic rubber, paper pulp, cotton, sugar, etc. are expected to be volatile, with different influencing factors for each [9].

Group 1: Investment Rating - The price of iron ore is expected to fluctuate weakly, and it should be treated bearishly [5] Group 2: Core View - Short - term macro disturbances have intensified again, with the trading focus returning to strong reality and weak expectations. Demand is in a downward trend overall, and the expected growth rate of supply (arrival) is expanding. It is expected that the short - term iron ore price will fluctuate weakly [5] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs News - On June 12, local time, the US Department of Commerce announced that it will impose additional tariffs on a variety of steel - made household appliances from June 23, including "steel derivatives" such as dishwashers, washing machines, and refrigerators [3] Supply - The current shipment of foreign mines has increased slightly month - on - month. The amount of Australian iron ore shipped to China has increased significantly, with a notable increase in Australian shipments, a decline in Brazilian shipments from a high level, and small fluctuations in shipments from non - mainstream countries. In June, it is the peak season for foreign mine shipments. With the fiscal year volume - boosting of Australian BHP and FMG mines, it is expected that foreign mine shipments will maintain a steady upward trend, and the support from the supply side will weaken marginally [4] Demand - Domestic demand has declined from a high level but remains at a high level. The molten iron has declined for five consecutive weeks, with an average daily output of 241.61 this period (month - on - month - 0.19). Blast furnaces are mainly under regular maintenance. Currently, the profitability rate of steel mills is relatively high and the blast furnace profit level is relatively good. It is expected that the molten iron will show an overall downward trend from a high level, but the downward slope will be small, and high demand supports the price [5] Inventory - Due to the increase in overseas shipments, the inventory of imported ores at steel mills has increased month - on - month, and the daily consumption has continued to decline but remains at a high level in the same period. With the increase in arrivals and the continuous decline in the port clearance volume, the port inventory has accumulated this period. Due to the weak market demand expectation, the restocking expectation is weak [5]

大宗商品研究所 能化研发报告 纯碱期货日报 2025 年 6 月 10 日 纯碱期货日报 第一部分 基础数据 | 现货市场 | （元/吨） | 2025/6/10 | 2025/6/9 | 上周 | 日变化 | 周变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 华中重质 | （送到） | 1300 | 1300 | 1300 | 0 | 0 | | 华东重质 | （送到） | 1350 | 1350 | 1350 | 0 | 0 | | 沙河重质 | （送到） | 1244 | 1242 | 1235 | 2 | 9 | | 西北重质 | （出厂） | 1030 | 1030 | 1050 | 0 | -20 | | 华中轻质 | （出厂） | 1200 | 1200 | 1220 | 0 | -20 | | 华东轻质 | （出厂） | 1230 | 1250 | 1280 | -20 | -50 | | 华北轻质 | （出厂） | 1300 | 1300 | 1300 | 0 | 0 | | 西北轻质 | （出厂） | 1030 | 1030 | 105 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The market risk preference may continue to rise after the positive signal from the Sino-US presidential call, and the stock index has a clear upward trend in shock, but short - term upward breakthrough needs further accumulation of capital and policy benefits [1]. - The central bank's intention to protect liquidity is clear, the short - end expectation of bonds has improved, but the long - end is weak, and the bond market is in an interval shock [1]. - Gold is affected by short - term risk aversion and long - term favorable factors yet to ferment, showing a shock - strong trend; silver is supported by the high gold - silver ratio [4]. - Copper price is affected by the macro - environment, with supply constraints and cautious demand expectations, and is in an interval shock [4]. - Alumina price is under pressure due to the resumption of production capacity and sufficient ore inventory [4]. - Nickel price is in an interval shock due to the balance between supply recovery and resource - country policy support [4]. - Lithium price is in a weak shock due to oversupply [6]. - Metal silicon industry is expected to accumulate inventory, and the short - term rebound height is limited [6]. - The black building materials sector is affected by macro - events and fundamentals, with prices in shock, and some varieties can hold corresponding option positions [6]. - Coal and coke prices are at the bottom and in shock due to oversupply and weak demand [9]. - Soda ash and float glass are in a shock - weak situation due to oversupply and lack of demand improvement [9]. - Oil price is in a weak shock with a downward center of gravity due to OPEC+ production increase and inventory changes [9]. - PTA supply increases and demand is weak, showing a weak shock trend [11]. - Methanol price may fall due to seasonal demand and import changes [11]. - Polyolefin price is in a downward trend due to supply increase and demand decline [11]. - Cotton price is in an interval shock due to good supply prospects and weak demand [11]. - Rubber price is in a weak shock due to weak demand and seasonal production increase [13]. Summary by Categories Stock Index - The A - share market has been strengthening this week, with trading volume increasing. The stock index is in a shock - upward trend, but short - term breakthrough needs more favorable factors [1]. Treasury Bond - The performance of treasury bonds was differentiated yesterday, with the long - end weak and the short - end strong. The central bank's operation affects market expectations, and the bond market is in an interval shock [1]. Precious Metals - Gold is affected by short - term risk aversion and long - term favorable factors yet to ferment, showing a shock - strong trend. Silver is supported by the high gold - silver ratio, and one can hold short - position out - of - the - money put options [4]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by the macro - environment, with supply constraints and cautious demand expectations, copper price is in an interval shock [4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina price is under pressure due to the resumption of production capacity and sufficient ore inventory. Aluminum has supply constraints but demand uncertainty [4]. - **Nickel**: Nickel price is in an interval shock due to the balance between supply recovery and resource - country policy support [4]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium**: Lithium price is in a weak shock due to oversupply [6]. - **Metal Silicon**: The metal silicon industry is expected to accumulate inventory, and the short - term rebound height is limited [6]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil price is in a weak shock with a downward center of gravity due to OPEC+ production increase and inventory changes [9]. - **PTA**: PTA supply increases and demand is weak, showing a weak shock trend [11]. - **Methanol**: Methanol price may fall due to seasonal demand and import changes [11]. - **Polyolefin**: Polyolefin price is in a downward trend due to supply increase and demand decline [11]. Black Building Materials - **Steel and Ore**: The black building materials sector is affected by macro - events and fundamentals, with prices in shock. Some varieties can hold corresponding option positions [6]. - **Coal and Coke**: Coal and coke prices are at the bottom and in shock due to oversupply and weak demand [9]. - **Soda Ash and Float Glass**: Soda ash and float glass are in a shock - weak situation due to oversupply and lack of demand improvement [9]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Cotton price is in an interval shock due to good supply prospects and weak demand [11]. - **Rubber**: Rubber price is in a weak shock due to weak demand and seasonal production increase [13].

2025 年 5 月 12 日 警惕宏观扰动 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 镍价震荡延续 核心观点及策略 一、 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：20021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 镍周报 ⚫ 宏观面，全球多国央行相继降息，美联储维持原有利 率政策不变。即使美国一季度GDP增速转负，美联储 官员依然认为美国经济具有韧性，但也承认劳动力市 场与再通胀面临一定挑战。此外，中美经贸论谈开 启，但双方在会谈前夕态度均较为强硬。 ⚫ 基本面：印尼矿产协会再次下调镍矿内贸基准价格， ...

Cotton Market Analysis - ICE cotton prices fell by 0.88% to 67.82 cents per pound, while CF509 dropped by 0.23% to 12,745 yuan per ton, with a significant increase in open interest by 6,434 contracts to 587,500 contracts [1] - The price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased by 79 yuan per ton to 13,846 yuan per ton, and the China Cotton Price Index for grade 3128B fell by 70 yuan per ton to 14,113 yuan per ton [1] - The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, with mixed data from the US and expectations that the Federal Reserve will likely maintain its current stance in May, leading to a slight decline in the dollar index [1] - Weather conditions have improved as the area affected by drought in major cotton-producing regions of the US and Texas has decreased [1] - The domestic cotton market is experiencing low volatility, with expectations of improved US-China tariff conditions and cotton prices at historical lows, limiting downside potential [1] - The cotton planting season is nearly complete, with a year-on-year increase in planting area, but overall supply-demand dynamics are not expected to change significantly [1] - Short-term expectations suggest continued low-level fluctuations in Zheng cotton prices, with attention on macroeconomic and weather-related disturbances [1] Sugar Market Dynamics - For the 2024/25 crushing season ending April 30, 2025, India crushed 27,585.7 million tons of sugarcane, a decrease of 3,565.5 million tons or 11.44% from the previous year, with sugar production falling by 577 million tons or 18.33% to 2,569.5 million tons [1] - In the spot market, prices from Guangxi Sugar Group were reported at 6,140 to 6,270 yuan per ton, down by 20 to 30 yuan, while Yunnan Sugar Group's prices were 5,950 to 5,990 yuan per ton, down by 20 yuan [1] - Raw sugar prices experienced a brief rebound due to macroeconomic sentiment and rising crude oil prices, but concerns over increased production pressured prices, leading to a bearish outlook [1] - Domestic spot prices have been adjusted downwards with average transaction volumes, and while there is not significant pressure on domestic sugar inventories, the potential for future sugar imports is being considered [1]

节前一周现货铝价上涨。截至5月2日，LME3个月铝收盘价为2432美元/吨，较4月30日收盘 价上涨1.3%。供应方面：节前一周山东地区继续向云南地区转移电解铝产能，广西地区电 解铝企业继续复产，节前一周电解铝行业理论开工产能较上周相比继续小幅增加。需求方 面：节前一周铝棒行业产量减少，减量主要体现在甘肃、四川地区，铝板行业产量较上周持 平，节前一周电解铝理论需求有所减少。库存方面：节前一周LME铝库存较上周减少，目 前LME铝库41.96万吨，较上周42.56万吨减少0.6万吨。中国方面，节前一周铝锭社会库存持 续减少，目前库存67.4万吨，较上周68.89万吨减少1.49万吨。建议关注：中孚实业、神火股 份、云铝股份、中国宏桥、紫金矿业、洛阳钼业、金诚信、五矿资源。 天风证券近日发布金属与材料行业研究周报：4月30日：1）美国一季度GDP转向负增 长；2）美国3月通胀指标意外降温；3）紫金矿业拟分拆境外黄金资产赴港上市；4）美乌签 署矿产协议。5月1日：1）美国4月制造业PMI大幅萎缩；2）美国对加拿大和墨西哥制造的 汽车零部件豁免关税；3）日本央行维持利率不变。5月2日：美国4月非农就业超预期。 以下为 ...

g a station and the state of the state | 热卷基差(右轴) - 价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4. 75mm: - 期货收盘价(活跃合约):热轧卷板 1000 -500 | 焦煤基差(右轴) 5000 800 4000 600 3000 400 2000 200 1000 -200 ■ 焦炭基差(右轴) - 青岛港:出库价(含税):准一级冶金焦(A13,SC = 期货收盘价(活跃合约):焦炭 1000 铁矿基差(右轴) 牛板价:盲岛港:澳大利亚:超轻 2000 1500 000 -500 黑色盒属数据日报 | 2025/04/30 | | 国贸期货出品 ITG 国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | 节子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | 远月合约收盘价 | RB2601 | HC2601 ...