Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The lithium carbonate market is driven by sentiment, with prices fluctuating widely due to strong energy storage demand, a tight - balance trend, frequent macro disturbances, a correction in the energy - chemical sector, and a rebound in the non - ferrous sector. The current inventory is at a low level, and short - term interval operations are recommended, with the option to go long on dips [3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Analysis - On March 24, 2026, the lithium carbonate main contract 2605 opened at 151,980 yuan/ton and closed at 152,940 yuan/ton, with a 6.11% change in the closing price compared to the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 231,071 lots, and the open interest was 260,696 lots (269,477 lots the previous day). The current basis is - 3,780 yuan/ton, and the lithium carbonate warehouse receipts are 32,078 lots, a change of - 1,459 lots from the previous day [1] - According to SMM data, the price of battery - grade lithium carbonate is 141,000 - 154,000 yuan/ton, a change of 1,000 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate is 138,000 - 151,000 yuan/ton, also a change of 1,000 yuan/ton. The price of 6% lithium concentrate is 2,080 US dollars/ton, a change of 40 US dollars/ton from the previous day [1] - The overall domestic supply of lithium salts is stable as most lithium salt plants have resumed production. However, export policy disturbances in Zimbabwe may restrict subsequent supply increments. The weekly total production of lithium carbonate is 24,186 tons, including 14,914 tons from spodumene, 3,197 tons from mica, 3,565 tons from salt lakes, and 3,565 tons from recycling [1] Inventory - According to SMM statistics, the spot inventory is 98,873 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 86 tons. Among them, the smelter inventory is 16,608 tons, a month - on - month increase of 316 tons; the downstream inventory is 46,105 tons, a month - on - month increase of 458 tons; other inventories are 36,160 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 860 tons. The inventory in the downstream and smelters has increased, while other inventories have decreased. The de - stocking pattern continues this week, but the de - stocking pace has slowed down [2] Profit - The price of lithium concentrate fluctuates with the lithium carbonate futures price. Lithium salt plants mostly purchase concentrate in bulk, with strong production enthusiasm. Lithium ore traders maintain a firm price for the ore, and the cost support line fluctuates with the ore price. Production enterprises with their own mines and salt lakes still have a large profit margin, and the profit of enterprises purchasing ore externally is maintained. The profit margin in the processing link is squeezed. Although the current processing fee has increased slightly compared to before the Spring Festival, the overall profit is still low [2] Strategy - Short - term: For unilateral trading, it is recommended to wait and see; for cross - period, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading, no strategies are provided [3][4][5]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the reports. 2. Core View of the Report - The price of lithium carbonate will experience wide - range oscillations in the range due to macro - level disturbances and supply - side constraints [1][3] 3. Summary by Related Content Market Performance - Yesterday, the LC main contract opened lower in the morning, then fluctuated within a narrow range, and was quickly pulled up in the afternoon due to supply - side news, closing at 149,040 yuan/ton, with a decline in trading volume and open interest, and the warehouse receipt volume on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange continued to decrease. The average price of SMM battery - grade spot was 146,500 yuan/ton. [1] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Last week, the raw material price weakened along with the salt price. The SMM operating rate continued to rise to 55.14%, and the total output increased to 24,186 tons, strengthening the medium - term expectation of loose supply. [2] - **Demand**: SMM predicts that the operating rate of cathode materials in March will be at a high level, but the downstream's acceptance of high prices is low. Ternary lithium - iron phosphate continues the trend of increasing production and inventory. Energy - storage cells have strong production and sales and low inventory, which is a structural highlight. [2] - **Inventory**: Last week, the SMM four - location social inventory decreased to 40,700 tons (- 1,820 tons), the sample weekly inventory decreased to 98,900 tons, at a relatively low level, and the total inventory days decreased to 27.7 days, continuing the tight - balance pattern. Structurally, the downstream has accumulated inventory, and the willingness to replenish inventory has weakened. [2] Macro - policy Analysis - **International**: The 15% temporary tariff policy of the US White House is still within the window period, which is a phased positive for demand. The escalation of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East has pushed up oil prices, reduced market risk appetite, and put pressure on industrial metal prices. The Zimbabwe incident has raised concerns about supply disruptions, and the lithium carbonate price may rise. [3] - **Domestic**: The subsidy for trading in old cars for new ones and the battery export tax rebate (officially implemented on April 1) stimulate terminal consumption. The comprehensive utilization management method for new - energy vehicle power batteries optimizes the domestic supply structure in the long term and raises the cost support center. The development of Qinghai salt lakes, the "14th Five - Year Plan" for energy storage, and the Central Economic Work Conference support the long - term supply - demand balance. The 2026 government work report mentions zero - carbon parks/factories, which are expected to become the second growth curve for energy storage. [3]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, iron ore is affected by supply - side and geopolitical disturbances, making it difficult to price based on fundamentals, and it is expected to fluctuate. Medium - to long - term, the high - inventory pressure is hard to ease, and the overall situation remains loose. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure on iron ore will be large, and the medium - term performance is expected to be weakly fluctuating. In the short term, the downside space is limited, and it may enter a high - level consolidation phase [2][5] Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - **Futures prices**: The main iron ore futures contract showed a slightly stronger intraday oscillation, closing at 815.5 yuan/ton, up 8.0 yuan/ton or 0.99% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 247,000 lots, the open interest was 450,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.077 billion yuan. The short - term support is around 795, and the short - term resistance is around 825, showing a slightly stronger oscillation within the support - resistance range [1] - **Spot prices**: The mainstream port spot varieties, Qingdao Port PB powder, rose 3 to 794, and Super Special powder rose 3 to 673. The swap main contract was at 108.35 (+0.9) US dollars/ton. The swap was highly volatile, and the spot prices rose slightly [1] - **Basis and spread**: The converted futures price of Qingdao Port PB powder was 826.9 yuan/ton, with a basis of 11.4 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly shrank. The iron ore 5 - 9 spread was 34.5 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 22 yuan [1] Fundamental Analysis - **Supply**: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, with both Australia, Brazil, and non - mainstream countries showing month - on - month rebounds. The arrivals this period decreased month - on - month, and the rhythm of shipments and arrivals still fluctuated [2] - **Demand**: The profitability rate of steel mills increased month - on - month. After the Two Sessions, the environmental protection restrictions in Hebei were lifted, and the blast furnaces under maintenance resumed production. The hot metal production recovered month - on - month, and some steel mills extended the resumption of production. There is still room for hot metal recovery. Attention should be paid to the support of peak - season demand [2] - **Inventory**: The iron ore port inventory decreased slightly month - on - month, the berthing inventory declined, and the steel mills' imported ore inventory accumulated [2] - **Overall situation**: Under the background of continuous supply - side and geopolitical disturbances, it is difficult to price iron ore based on fundamentals. In the short term, it is expected to fluctuate. In the medium - to long - term, the high - inventory pressure is hard to ease, and the overall situation remains loose. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure on iron ore will be large, and the medium - term performance is expected to be weakly fluctuating [2] Macro - level Analysis - **Domestic**: After the important meetings, the domestic macro - economy has entered the verification period of fundamental reality. This week, the domestic export, inflation, and financial data were mainly released, and the overall data performance was relatively good. The macro - fundamentals maintained resilience, increasing the probability of a "good start" in the first quarter. The reality of external demand resilience has been initially confirmed, and the resilience of domestic demand is still reflected in the financial and capital levels. High - frequency commodity consumption is still at a seasonal low after the Spring Festival resumption of work. In the future, attention should be paid to the progress of domestic demand investment repair, the impact of imported inflation on the domestic price structure, and the sustainability of export resilience [4] - **Overseas**: The market is gradually pricing in the possibility that the high - oil - price environment may continue, and the market's concern about the US economic stagflation in the first quarter has further intensified. In the future, the overseas macro - logic may gradually shift from the "soft landing" expectation driven by the loosening of liquidity to the arrival time and amplitude of "inflation" and the possibility and time of the shift from "inflation" to "stagflation" [4] Viewpoint Summary - The iron ore fundamentals show that the supply is still loose, the hot metal production on the demand side has decreased, the resumption of production has been delayed, and the port inventory has declined to some extent. The overall fundamentals are still weak. Under the double disturbances of the supply side and geopolitics, it is difficult to trade based on the fundamental logic. The iron ore futures and spot show a positive basis, and the BACK structure continues. In the short term, the downside space is limited, and it may enter a high - level consolidation phase. Attention should be paid to further tests near the upper resistance [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The international soybean market remains relatively loose in supply and demand, but the focus of market influence may lie in macro factors and subsequent soybean demand, with relatively high uncertainty [4][5] - The domestic spot supply is gradually tightening, and the market is reacting to potential supply shortages, with prices showing some support [6] - The prices of soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate widely, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal will also fluctuate [7][8] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes - **Futures and Spot Prices**: The soybean meal futures prices showed a downward trend, with the 01 contract closing at 3049, up 9; the 05 contract at 3042, up 6; and the 09 contract at 3009, up 5. The rapeseed meal futures prices also had some changes, with the 01 contract at 2380, up 12; the 05 contract at 2443, unchanged; and the 09 contract at 2438, up 11. The spot basis of soybean meal and rapeseed meal in different regions also changed to varying degrees [3] - **Monthly Spread**: The monthly spread of soybean meal showed a significant downward trend, while the monthly spread of rapeseed meal followed suit, mainly due to relatively high supply pressure [3] - **Cross - Variety Futures Spread**: The spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal futures contracts (05 and 09) and the oil - meal ratio (01) also had certain changes [3] - **Spot Spread**: The spot spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal, as well as between soybean meal and sunflower meal, increased [3] 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - **International Market**: The US soybean carry - over inventory is estimated to be around 350 million bushels, slightly higher than market expectations. The supply in South America has been affected, with some institutions lowering the Brazilian soybean yield, but the impact on the final yield is expected to be limited. The Brazilian old - crop has good export and crushing performance, while the new - crop export is expected to increase significantly. The demand for the old - crop in Argentina is good, but the new - crop yield has decreased [4] - **Domestic Market**: The domestic spot supply is gradually tightening, with the oil mill operating rate likely to decline after a short - term increase. The market transactions have increased, but the supply has decreased, and the inventory has shown a downward trend. The demand for rapeseed meal is generally average, with the oil mill operating rate increasing slightly, but the supply pressure still exists [6] 3.3 Logical Analysis - **US Soybeans**: The US soybean market continues to face downward pressure, and the driving force for further price increases is limited. The key factors are subsequent exports and demand [7] - **South American Soybeans**: The South American soybean quotes are relatively strong, but the overall changes are limited, and it takes time for inland pressure to be transmitted to the export market [7] - **Domestic Soybean Meal**: The domestic soybean meal fundamentals change little, but the spot supply is tightening due to uncertain soybean arrivals. The basis continues to rise, and the price is supported to some extent, but the sustainability is limited [7] - **Domestic Rapeseed Meal**: The domestic rapeseed meal follows the trend of soybean meal, with limited pressure. The supply of rapeseed has increased, but the inventory is still at a relatively low level. The price has support, and the spread between soybean meal and rapeseed meal will fluctuate widely [7] 3.4 Trading Strategies - **Single - sided Trading**: The fundamentals of soybean meal and rapeseed meal face certain pressure, but due to increased market disturbances, they are expected to fluctuate widely [8] - **Arbitrage**: Narrow the MRM09 spread [8] - **Options**: Seagull put option (for reference only) [8]

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - In the short term, iron ore is expected to fluctuate due to supply - side and geopolitical disturbances, and it is difficult to price based on fundamentals. It may be in high - level shock consolidation, and the downward space is limited for now. In the medium - term, the high - inventory pressure of iron ore is difficult to relieve, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly. Overall, the iron ore fundamentals are weak with loose supply, decreased demand, and accumulated port inventory [2][4]. Summary by Directory Market行情态势回顾 - Futures price: The main contract of iron ore futures rebounded with a strong bias during the day, closing at 816.5 yuan/ton, up 7.5 yuan/ton or 0.93% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 210,000 lots, the open interest was 462,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.294 billion yuan. The short - term support below is around 790, and the short - term pressure above is around 820. In the near future, it may continue to be under pressure near the upper pressure and fall into shock consolidation [1]. - Spot price: The mainstream varieties of port spot, Qingdao Port PB powder was 793 (unchanged), Super Special powder was 671 (unchanged), and the main swap was 109 (+1.08) US dollars/ton. The swap rose slightly again, and the spot price fluctuated little [1]. - Basis and spread: The price of Qingdao Port PB powder converted to the futures price was 825.8 yuan/ton, with a basis of 9.3 yuan/ton, and the basis shrank significantly. The 5 - 9 spread of iron ore was 31 yuan, and the 9 - 1 spread was 20.5 yuan [1]. Fundamental Analysis - Supply side: Overseas mine shipments increased month - on - month, with both Australia, Brazil and non - mainstream countries showing month - on - month recoveries. The arrivals this period decreased month - on - month, and the rhythm of shipments and arrivals still fluctuated [2]. - Demand side: The rhythms of blast furnace maintenance and resumption of production were mismatched. The pig iron output this period decreased significantly month - on - month, the profitability rate of steel mills increased. After the Two Sessions, the pig iron output is likely to recover month - on - month. Attention should be paid to the support of peak - season demand [2]. - Inventory: The iron ore port inventory increased slightly month - on - month, the pressured port inventory decreased slightly, and the mill inventory decreased slightly [2]. Macro - level Analysis - Domestic: After the important meeting, the domestic macro has entered the verification period of fundamental reality. The overall data of exports, inflation and finance released this week are relatively good, and the macro - fundamentals maintain resilience, increasing the probability of a "good start" in the first quarter. The resilience of domestic demand is still reflected in the financial and capital levels, and high - frequency commodity consumption is still at a seasonal low after the Spring Festival resumption of work. In the future, attention should be paid to the repair progress of domestic demand investment, the impact of external imported inflation on the domestic price structure, and the sustainability of export resilience [3]. - Overseas: The market is gradually pricing in the possibility that the high - oil - price environment may continue, and concerns about the economic stagflation in the first quarter of the United States have further intensified. In the future, the overseas macro - logic may gradually shift from the "soft - landing" expectation driven by the loosening of liquidity to the arrival time and amplitude of "inflation" and the possibility and time of the shift from "inflation" to "stagflation" [3]. Viewpoint Summary - Comprehensively, the iron ore fundamentals are weak, with loose supply, decreased pig iron output, delayed resumption of production, and accumulated port inventory. Under the double disturbances of supply - side and geopolitics, it is difficult to trade based on fundamental logic. With a positive basis and a continued BACK structure, the short - term downward space is limited, and it may fall into high - level shock consolidation. Attention should be paid to further tests near the upper pressure [4].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is facing short - term disturbances and fundamental pressure. In the short term, it is expected to be volatile, and in the long - term, the high - inventory pressure is difficult to ease, maintaining a loose pattern. If macro disturbances weaken, the fundamental pressure on iron ore will be significant [2] - Considering the supply and geopolitical disturbances, iron ore is difficult to trade based on fundamental logic. In the short term, the downside space is limited, and it may enter a high - level volatile consolidation phase [5] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market行情态势回顾 - The main contract of iron ore futures rebounded with a slight upward trend during the day, closing at 809 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.5 yuan/ton or - 0.31% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 320,000 lots, the open interest was 459,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.167 billion yuan. The short - term support below is around 790, and the short - term pressure above is around 820. In the near future, it may continue to be under pressure near the upper pressure and enter a volatile consolidation [1] - The mainstream spot varieties at the port: Qingdao Port PB powder dropped 5 to 793, Super Special powder dropped 5 to 670, and the main swap was 107.5 (- 0.45) US dollars/ton. The swap continued to lack upward momentum, and the spot price declined [1] - The converted futures price of Qingdao Port PB powder is 825.8 yuan/ton, with a basis of 16.8 yuan/ton, and the basis slightly shrank. The spread between iron ore contracts 5 - 9 is 31.5 yuan, and the spread between contracts 9 - 1 is 19 yuan [1] Fundamental Analysis - On the supply side, iron ore shipments decreased month - on - month, while arrivals increased month - on - month. The previous high shipments are gradually arriving, and the overall supply remains relatively loose. Some spot varieties have limited liquidity, leading to relatively strong futures and spot prices [2] - On the demand side, the molten iron output decreased significantly. During the Two Sessions, production restrictions affected the resumption rhythm of molten iron production, but it is likely to recover seasonally later [2] - In terms of inventory, port inventories increased slightly, while berthing and steel mill inventories decreased slightly. Without disturbances, it is difficult for the total inventory to show a significant reduction. Attention should be paid to the impact of tight inventory liquidity of some varieties on prices. At the same time, there are still expectations of geopolitical disturbances, and market sentiment changes should be monitored [2] Macro - level Analysis - Domestically, after the important meetings, the domestic macro - economy has entered the verification period of fundamental reality. This week, domestic export, inflation, and financial data were mainly released, and the overall data performance was relatively good. The macro - fundamentals maintained resilience, increasing the probability of a "good start" in the first quarter. The resilience of domestic demand is still reflected in the financial and capital aspects, and high - frequency commodity consumption is still at a seasonal low after the Spring Festival resumption of work. In the future, domestic focus should be on the progress of the repair of domestic demand investment, the impact of imported inflation on the domestic price structure, and the sustainability of export resilience [4] - Overseas, the market is gradually pricing in the possibility that the high - oil - price environment may continue, and concerns about the economic stagflation in the US in the first quarter have further intensified. In the future, the overseas macro - logic may gradually shift from the "soft landing" expectation driven by the loosening of liquidity to the arrival time and magnitude of "inflation" and the possibility and time of the shift from "inflation" to "stagflation" [4] Viewpoint Summary - Overall, the iron ore fundamentals show a weak situation, with a loose supply, a decrease in molten iron output on the demand side, a delay in the resumption rhythm, and an increase in port inventories [5] - Due to the double disturbances of the supply side and geopolitics, iron ore is difficult to trade based on fundamental logic. With a positive basis and the continuation of the BACK structure, the short - term downside space is limited, and it may enter a high - level volatile consolidation. Attention should be paid to further tests near the upper pressure [5]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The iron ore market is expected to remain slightly bullish in the short - term. The high shipping volume and high inventory pressure are difficult to alleviate in the short - term, while the iron water production on the demand side has increased, and the supply - demand contradiction is gradually accumulating. The holding of the Two Sessions and positive macro - expectations support the market, and the futures still show a BACK structure under a positive basis [2][5] 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents Market行情态势回顾 - The main contract of iron ore futures fluctuated slightly stronger, closing at 752 yuan/ton, down 1.5 yuan/ton or - 0.2% from the previous trading day. The trading volume was 230,000 lots, the open interest was 526,000 lots, and the settled funds were 8.695 billion yuan. The short - term support below has moved up to around 745, and a bullish rebound is expected in the near future [1] - The mainstream spot prices at ports decreased slightly. The PB powder at Qingdao Port was 752 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan; the Super Special powder was 639 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan. The main swap contract was 98.85 (+0.65) US dollars/ton, showing a fluctuating and slightly stronger trend [1] - The basis of PB powder at Qingdao Port was 28.7 yuan/ton, showing a slight expansion. The spread between May and September contracts of iron ore was 20.5 yuan, and the spread between September and January contracts was 14 yuan [1] Fundamental Analysis - Overseas mine shipments increased slightly month - on - month and remained at a high level. The arrivals this period were at a low level and decreased slightly month - on - month, but are expected to recover later. On the demand side, due to the staggered time of blast furnace restart and maintenance, the iron water production increased significantly month - on - month, the steel mill profitability rate recovered slightly, and the rigid demand increased marginally. During the Two Sessions, some regions will implement production restrictions, which will affect the recovery rhythm of iron water. Attention should be paid to the post - holiday demand support [2] - Iron ore port inventories increased month - on - month, while the inventory of ships at berth decreased. During the Spring Festival, steel mills mainly consumed their inventories, and the factory inventories decreased significantly. With the holding of the Two Sessions, attention should be paid to changes in market sentiment [2] - The supply - side shipments have recovered, and the pressure of high shipments and high inventories is difficult to alleviate in the short - term. With the Two Sessions approaching and geopolitical disturbances increasing, there are still uncertainties in the macro - environment. However, after the Spring Festival, the pricing weight of fundamentals is expected to increase, and the pressure on fundamentals will still be large after the weakening of macro - disturbances [2] Macro - level Analysis - Domestically, policy coordination has been strengthened, high - frequency consumption is warm, and the real estate market has improved marginally. In February, fiscal and monetary injections were higher than the seasonal average, and the liquidity environment was stable, which was beneficial to short - term interest rates. Exports were stable, travel and consumption were active during the Spring Festival, and the social retail sales from January to February may be better than expected, supporting domestic demand and mid - cap structural opportunities. Although real estate transactions are still at a low level, the listing prices in first - and second - tier cities have rebounded slightly, and the signal of policy optimization has increased, but the sustainability of the recovery remains to be observed. The quota of special bonds has been increased, but the investment structure has been adjusted, and the support for the black chain from infrastructure may be limited [4] - Overseas, consumer confidence has recovered, industrial orders are differentiated, and geopolitical and institutional risks have increased. Policy discussions around the Wash nominee have fermented, affecting the pricing of the US dollar and interest rates. With Trump strengthening his stance on Iran and the Israeli air strike on Iran, the situation in the Middle East has heated up, pushing up energy and safe - haven premiums. The overall situation shows a pattern of "growth not stalling, policy and geopolitical risks rising" [4]

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints - In the context of ongoing geopolitical and macroeconomic disturbances, there are export restrictions and concerns in major high - sulfur fuel supply regions like Russia and Iran. However, the current situation of high inventory and weak demand in the first quarter remains. Geopolitics is the main bullish driver, and the near - term logistics supply from Russia and Iran is temporarily stable. On the demand side, after the restriction of Venezuelan oil, the market expects Chinese local refineries to import Iranian and Russian crude oil and fuel oil as substitutes. The increase in state - owned procurement reflects the feedstock demand. For low - sulfur fuel, the near - term supply pressure has decreased. The return of the gasoline unit at the Dangote refinery is expected to reduce low - sulfur external supply and exports, and the external low - sulfur logistics is being diverted by the West. The export of low - sulfur heavy crude oil from Sudan's Dar has not met expectations, and the logistics to the Pan - Singapore area is also being diverted. The Al - Zour refinery in the Middle East has maintained a stable high - level of low - sulfur exports after its return. Near - term focus should be on supply and inventory changes in the Pan - Singapore area, as well as domestic refinery quota production and imports [7]. Group 3: Summary by Directory First Part: Related Data - **Futures Prices and Positions**: The price of FU主力 on February 24, 2026, was 2942, up 102 from the previous day. Its position was 30.3 million hands, up 3.8 million hands. The price of LU主力 was 3478, up 217 from the previous day, and its position was 12.5 million hands, up 0.2 million hands. The FU5 - 9 spread was 110, down 20, and the LU3 - 4 spread was - 5, up 5. The LU - FU主力 spread was 536, up 115. The FU05 - outer market 04 spread was 16.5, up 3.9, and the LU05 - outer market 04 spread was 17.4, down 2.2 [3]. - **Warehouse Receipts**: The FU warehouse receipts were 1300 tons, unchanged from the previous day, and the LU warehouse receipts were 2780, down 1500 [3]. Second Part: Market Research and Judgment - **Market Overview**: In the Singapore paper - cargo market, the high - sulfur Mar/Apr monthly spread dropped 2.7 to 1.50 US dollars/ton, and the low - sulfur Mar/Apr monthly spread dropped 0.4 to 2.75 US dollars/ton [5]. - **Important Information**: In January, the sales volume of marine fuel oil in the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone (FOIZ) in the UAE totaled 635,835 cubic meters (about 630,000 metric tons), a 6.1% increase from December and a 1.1% increase from January of last year. The market share of high - sulfur fuel increased from 33% to 36%, while the market share of low - sulfur fuel oil decreased from 67% to 64% [6]. - **Market Judgment**: As mentioned in the core viewpoints, geopolitical factors are the main bullish driver for high - sulfur fuel, and the near - term supply pressure of low - sulfur fuel has decreased [7]. Third Part: Related Attachments - The report provides multiple figures including Singapore high - sulfur cracking, low - sulfur cracking, gasoline cracking, 10ppm diesel cracking, high - low sulfur spread, and LSFO - GO, all with data sources from Galaxy Futures and Reuters [11][12][14].

Sugar Industry - In the 2025/26 crushing season, India's ethanol blending ratio in gasoline reached a milestone of 20% in December [2] - Current spot prices for sugar from Guangxi Sugar Group range from 5260 to 5330 CNY/ton, with a slight decrease of 10 CNY/ton; Yunnan Sugar Group's prices remain stable at 5130 to 5180 CNY/ton [2] - The raw sugar market remains in a fluctuating range, with production in the Northern Hemisphere meeting expectations; future attention should be on production conditions in Thailand and India [2] - Domestic spot transactions are slowing down, with continuous crushing and accumulating inventory; market sentiment is average, and a fluctuating market is expected to continue [2] Cotton Industry - On Monday, ICE cotton prices fell by 1.36%, closing at 62.94 cents/pound; Zhengzhou cotton main contract decreased by 0.51%, closing at 14650 CNY/ton, with a reduction in open interest by 7457 contracts to 795900 contracts [6][7] - The cotton price index for 3128B was 15560 CNY/ton, down 70 CNY/ton from the previous day [6] - Internationally, macroeconomic disturbances are increasing, with rising risk aversion; precious metals are reaching historical highs, and the US dollar index is weak, leading to a downward trend in cotton prices [7] - Domestically, cotton prices are expected to remain weak before the holiday due to limited stocking by textile enterprises and high inventory levels [7] - The current cotton inventory is at a yearly high, with increased imports, indicating ample supply [7]

Copper - Overnight copper prices fluctuated and then retreated, with domestic refined copper imports maintaining losses. The New York Federal Reserve reported a significant drop in the general business conditions index by about 23 points to -3.9, indicating a contraction in manufacturing, although the outlook for the next six months improved significantly, with the outlook index rising 16.6 points to its highest level since the beginning of the year, reflecting increased optimism about orders and shipments [3][9] - Domestic economic data for November showed resilient exports but weak domestic demand, with consumption declining rapidly month-on-month and fixed asset and real estate investments under pressure, highlighting the need for policy intervention [3][9] - LME copper inventory decreased by 25 tons to 165,875 tons, while COMEX copper warehouse receipts increased by 1,995 tons to 410,792 tons, and SHFE copper warehouse receipts rose by 9,663 tons to 42,226 tons [3][9] Nickel & Stainless Steel - LME nickel fell by 2.22% to $14,295 per ton, while SHFE nickel dropped by 2.15% to 112,530 yuan per ton. LME inventory increased by 360 tons to 253,392 tons, and SHFE warehouse receipts rose by 2,622 tons to 37,872 tons [10] - The stainless steel market showed improved transaction sentiment, with total social inventory of stainless steel in major markets decreasing by 1.55% week-on-week to 1,063,600 tons [10] - The nickel price is under pressure due to weak demand and inventory accumulation, with attention on overseas industrial policies and macroeconomic sentiment [10] Alumina & Aluminum - Overnight alumina prices showed a slight decline, with AO2601 settling at 2,527 yuan per ton, down 0.75%. SHFE aluminum also experienced a slight decline, with AL2602 closing at 21,865 yuan per ton, down 0.11% [11] - The market is currently negotiating new quarterly order prices for alumina, with companies showing a strong willingness to maintain production despite losses [11] - The aluminum price is expected to continue to run at high levels due to supply constraints and the impact of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions [11] Industrial Silicon & Polysilicon - Industrial silicon prices showed a slight increase, with the main contract settling at 8,350 yuan per ton, up 1.15%. Polysilicon prices also increased, with the main contract at 58,030 yuan per ton, up 3.61% [13] - The market is currently experiencing a disconnect between spot and futures prices due to excess supply in crystalline silicon and a shortage of warehouse receipts [13] - The trading environment remains cautious, with a focus on the dynamics of production capacity and market responses to recent production cuts [13] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium carbonate futures rose by 1.4% to 101,060 yuan per ton, with both battery-grade and industrial-grade lithium carbonate prices increasing by 650 yuan per ton [14] - Weekly production increased by 59 tons to 21,998 tons, with expectations for a 3% increase in December production [14] - The market is experiencing a reduction in inventory levels, with social inventory continuing to decline, indicating strong demand despite potential seasonal price weaknesses [14]