Report Overview - Report Title: Morning Report - Iron Ore [1] - Report Date: August 5, 2025 [3] - Report Theme: Iron ore - Macro disturbances weaken, and ore prices operate within a range [2] Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - In the short term, the macro environment enters a window period, and the black series as a whole maintains a high - level consolidation cycle. The support from external ore supply weakens marginally, and external ore shipments will gradually enter a seasonal recovery cycle in August. However, based on the current high profits of blast furnaces and the characteristic that the terminal demand is not weak in the off - season, it is expected that the short - term domestic demand will remain at a relatively high level. The supply and demand of iron ore are in a stage of balance, and port inventories tend to be stable or increase slightly. It is expected that the short - term iron ore futures prices will fluctuate at a high level. The price will operate in a range, with the i2601 contract price ranging from 745 yuan/ton to 780 yuan/ton (the domestic market changes contracts at the beginning of this week), and the foreign FE09 contract price ranging from $98.5 to $103 per ton [4] Summary by Directory Logic - The results of the China - US economic and trade talks basically meet expectations, but the expectation of incremental policies from an important domestic meeting fails. The market enters a short - term policy vacuum period, and the trading focus returns to the industrial fundamentals. The black series as a whole enters a high - level consolidation cycle, and attention should be paid to the cost support of short - process steelmaking [3] Supply - The short - term support from the supply side weakens marginally. External ore shipments will gradually enter a seasonal recovery cycle. After the maintenance periods of BHP and FMG mines in Australia end, their shipments increase, while the shipments from Brazil decrease this period. The short - term arrival volume rebounds from a low level, increasing the immediate supply pressure [3] Demand - The daily average pig iron output in China has declined for two consecutive weeks with an expanding decline. The daily average pig iron output this period is 240.71 (a week - on - week decrease of 1.52). However, the profitability rate of steel mills continues to rise, and the blast furnace profit is relatively considerable. The short - term demand for iron ore remains resilient, and the high domestic demand strongly supports the price. Attention should be paid to whether the pig iron output can remain at a high level in the future [3] Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at steel mills remains high. Due to the continuous rise in iron ore prices, steel mills continue to replenish their stocks. As the arrival volume drops to a relatively low - middle level, the port inventory drops significantly this period. Looking forward, with the increase in shipments and the marginal decrease in pig iron output, it is expected that the short - term inventory will generally tend to be stable or increase slightly [3]

投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2012】669号 黑色系表现弱势，金、油相对偏强 ——中信期货晨报20250613 中信期货研究所 仲鼎 从业资格号F03107932 投资咨询号Z0021450 重要提示：本报告非期货交易咨询业务项下服务，其中的观点和信息仅作参考之用，不构成对任何人的投资建议。 我司不会因为关注、收到或阅读本报告内容而视相关人员为客户；市场有风险，投资需谨慎。 | | | | STC BEY LES CALL HOW BAY ARE | | | | | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 板块 | 品种 | 现价 | | | 日度涨跌幅周度涨跌幅月度涨跌幅季度涨跌幅今年涨跌幅 | | | | 殷指 | 沪深300期货 | 3883.6 | 0.12% | 0.73% | 1.60% | 0.65% | -0.95% | | | 上证50期货 | 2682.2 | -0.01% | 0.32% | 0.56% | 0.61% | 0.16% | | | 中证500期货 | 5780 | 0.33% | 0.95% | 2.70% ...

晨报 铁矿石 铁矿石：宏观扰动加剧 短期偏弱运行 整理 投资咨询业务资格： 负责人：赵 毅 从业资格号：F3059924 投资咨询号：Z0002978 电话：010-62688526 成 材：武秋婷 从业资格号：F3078638 投资咨询号：Z0018248 电话：010-62688555 从业资格号：F3038114 投资咨询号：Z0014834 电话：010-62688541 从业资格号：F3059529 投资咨询号：Z0018932 电话：010-62688516 从业资格号：F03127144 投资咨询号：Z0020161 电话：021-20857653 成文时间： 2025 年 6 月 13 日 逻辑：消息面：据央视新闻，当地时间 6 月 12 日，美国商务部宣布将自 6 月 23 日起对多 种钢制家用电器加征关税，包括洗碗机、洗衣机和冰箱等"钢铁衍生产品"。 证监许可【2011】1452 号 近期黑色系市场交投重心仍以终端需求悲观预期为主，成材表需呈现出淡季特征，碳元素 不断让利于铁元素(碳元素现货端并未出现提涨，焦炭甚至提降第三轮)，高炉利润并未因成材 价格下跌而出现利润大幅压缩反而有所扩大，短 ...

大宗商品研究所 能化研发报告 纯碱期货日报 2025 年 6 月 10 日 纯碱期货日报 第一部分 基础数据 | 现货市场 | （元/吨） | 2025/6/10 | 2025/6/9 | 上周 | 日变化 | 周变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 华中重质 | （送到） | 1300 | 1300 | 1300 | 0 | 0 | | 华东重质 | （送到） | 1350 | 1350 | 1350 | 0 | 0 | | 沙河重质 | （送到） | 1244 | 1242 | 1235 | 2 | 9 | | 西北重质 | （出厂） | 1030 | 1030 | 1050 | 0 | -20 | | 华中轻质 | （出厂） | 1200 | 1200 | 1220 | 0 | -20 | | 华东轻质 | （出厂） | 1230 | 1250 | 1280 | -20 | -50 | | 华北轻质 | （出厂） | 1300 | 1300 | 1300 | 0 | 0 | | 西北轻质 | （出厂） | 1030 | 1030 | 105 ...

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The market risk preference may continue to rise after the positive signal from the Sino-US presidential call, and the stock index has a clear upward trend in shock, but short - term upward breakthrough needs further accumulation of capital and policy benefits [1]. - The central bank's intention to protect liquidity is clear, the short - end expectation of bonds has improved, but the long - end is weak, and the bond market is in an interval shock [1]. - Gold is affected by short - term risk aversion and long - term favorable factors yet to ferment, showing a shock - strong trend; silver is supported by the high gold - silver ratio [4]. - Copper price is affected by the macro - environment, with supply constraints and cautious demand expectations, and is in an interval shock [4]. - Alumina price is under pressure due to the resumption of production capacity and sufficient ore inventory [4]. - Nickel price is in an interval shock due to the balance between supply recovery and resource - country policy support [4]. - Lithium price is in a weak shock due to oversupply [6]. - Metal silicon industry is expected to accumulate inventory, and the short - term rebound height is limited [6]. - The black building materials sector is affected by macro - events and fundamentals, with prices in shock, and some varieties can hold corresponding option positions [6]. - Coal and coke prices are at the bottom and in shock due to oversupply and weak demand [9]. - Soda ash and float glass are in a shock - weak situation due to oversupply and lack of demand improvement [9]. - Oil price is in a weak shock with a downward center of gravity due to OPEC+ production increase and inventory changes [9]. - PTA supply increases and demand is weak, showing a weak shock trend [11]. - Methanol price may fall due to seasonal demand and import changes [11]. - Polyolefin price is in a downward trend due to supply increase and demand decline [11]. - Cotton price is in an interval shock due to good supply prospects and weak demand [11]. - Rubber price is in a weak shock due to weak demand and seasonal production increase [13]. Summary by Categories Stock Index - The A - share market has been strengthening this week, with trading volume increasing. The stock index is in a shock - upward trend, but short - term breakthrough needs more favorable factors [1]. Treasury Bond - The performance of treasury bonds was differentiated yesterday, with the long - end weak and the short - end strong. The central bank's operation affects market expectations, and the bond market is in an interval shock [1]. Precious Metals - Gold is affected by short - term risk aversion and long - term favorable factors yet to ferment, showing a shock - strong trend. Silver is supported by the high gold - silver ratio, and one can hold short - position out - of - the - money put options [4]. Non - ferrous Metals - **Copper**: Affected by the macro - environment, with supply constraints and cautious demand expectations, copper price is in an interval shock [4]. - **Aluminum and Alumina**: Alumina price is under pressure due to the resumption of production capacity and sufficient ore inventory. Aluminum has supply constraints but demand uncertainty [4]. - **Nickel**: Nickel price is in an interval shock due to the balance between supply recovery and resource - country policy support [4]. Energy and Chemicals - **Lithium**: Lithium price is in a weak shock due to oversupply [6]. - **Metal Silicon**: The metal silicon industry is expected to accumulate inventory, and the short - term rebound height is limited [6]. - **Crude Oil**: Oil price is in a weak shock with a downward center of gravity due to OPEC+ production increase and inventory changes [9]. - **PTA**: PTA supply increases and demand is weak, showing a weak shock trend [11]. - **Methanol**: Methanol price may fall due to seasonal demand and import changes [11]. - **Polyolefin**: Polyolefin price is in a downward trend due to supply increase and demand decline [11]. Black Building Materials - **Steel and Ore**: The black building materials sector is affected by macro - events and fundamentals, with prices in shock. Some varieties can hold corresponding option positions [6]. - **Coal and Coke**: Coal and coke prices are at the bottom and in shock due to oversupply and weak demand [9]. - **Soda Ash and Float Glass**: Soda ash and float glass are in a shock - weak situation due to oversupply and lack of demand improvement [9]. Agricultural Products - **Cotton**: Cotton price is in an interval shock due to good supply prospects and weak demand [11]. - **Rubber**: Rubber price is in a weak shock due to weak demand and seasonal production increase [13].

2025 年 5 月 12 日 警惕宏观扰动 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F3084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 镍价震荡延续 核心观点及策略 一、 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jygh.com. cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：20021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 8 镍周报 ⚫ 宏观面，全球多国央行相继降息，美联储维持原有利 率政策不变。即使美国一季度GDP增速转负，美联储 官员依然认为美国经济具有韧性，但也承认劳动力市 场与再通胀面临一定挑战。此外，中美经贸论谈开 启，但双方在会谈前夕态度均较为强硬。 ⚫ 基本面：印尼矿产协会再次下调镍矿内贸基准价格， ...

Cotton Market Analysis - ICE cotton prices fell by 0.88% to 67.82 cents per pound, while CF509 dropped by 0.23% to 12,745 yuan per ton, with a significant increase in open interest by 6,434 contracts to 587,500 contracts [1] - The price of cotton in Xinjiang decreased by 79 yuan per ton to 13,846 yuan per ton, and the China Cotton Price Index for grade 3128B fell by 70 yuan per ton to 14,113 yuan per ton [1] - The macroeconomic environment remains uncertain, with mixed data from the US and expectations that the Federal Reserve will likely maintain its current stance in May, leading to a slight decline in the dollar index [1] - Weather conditions have improved as the area affected by drought in major cotton-producing regions of the US and Texas has decreased [1] - The domestic cotton market is experiencing low volatility, with expectations of improved US-China tariff conditions and cotton prices at historical lows, limiting downside potential [1] - The cotton planting season is nearly complete, with a year-on-year increase in planting area, but overall supply-demand dynamics are not expected to change significantly [1] - Short-term expectations suggest continued low-level fluctuations in Zheng cotton prices, with attention on macroeconomic and weather-related disturbances [1] Sugar Market Dynamics - For the 2024/25 crushing season ending April 30, 2025, India crushed 27,585.7 million tons of sugarcane, a decrease of 3,565.5 million tons or 11.44% from the previous year, with sugar production falling by 577 million tons or 18.33% to 2,569.5 million tons [1] - In the spot market, prices from Guangxi Sugar Group were reported at 6,140 to 6,270 yuan per ton, down by 20 to 30 yuan, while Yunnan Sugar Group's prices were 5,950 to 5,990 yuan per ton, down by 20 yuan [1] - Raw sugar prices experienced a brief rebound due to macroeconomic sentiment and rising crude oil prices, but concerns over increased production pressured prices, leading to a bearish outlook [1] - Domestic spot prices have been adjusted downwards with average transaction volumes, and while there is not significant pressure on domestic sugar inventories, the potential for future sugar imports is being considered [1]

g a station and the state of the state | 热卷基差(右轴) - 价格:热轧板卷:Q235B:4. 75mm: - 期货收盘价(活跃合约):热轧卷板 1000 -500 | 焦煤基差(右轴) 5000 800 4000 600 3000 400 2000 200 1000 -200 ■ 焦炭基差(右轴) - 青岛港:出库价(含税):准一级冶金焦(A13,SC = 期货收盘价(活跃合约):焦炭 1000 铁矿基差(右轴) 牛板价:盲岛港:澳大利亚:超轻 2000 1500 000 -500 黑色盒属数据日报 | 2025/04/30 | | 国贸期货出品 ITG 国贸期货 | | --- | --- | --- | | 投资咨询业务资格:证监许可[2012] 31号 | | | | 黑色金属研究中心 | 执业证号 | 投资咨询证号 | | 张宝慧 | F0286636 | Z0010820 | | 黄志鸿 | F3051824 | Z0015761 | | 节子勖 | F03094002 | Z0020036 | | | 远月合约收盘价 | RB2601 | HC2601 ...

光期研究 见微知著 棉 花 策 略 月 报 2 0 2 5 年 0 5 月 1 光大证券 2020 年 半 年 度 业 绩 E V E R B R I G H T S E C U R I T I E S 棉花：新棉播种期宏观扰动持续，棉价存有支撑 p 2 棉花：新棉播种期宏观扰动持续，棉价存有支撑 总 结 供应端：国内新棉播种进入尾声，预计种植面积同比小幅增加，但增幅或低于此前市场预期，美棉播种进度加速，目前看干旱影响未完全消失，预计新年度中美棉花产 量均同比下降。 1、USDA3月末种植意向报告显示，预计2025年美棉播种面积为986.7万英亩，同比下降近12%，基本符合市场预期，但由于弃种率预计下调，因此最终产量预计变化不 大。我们认为美棉产量高估。2、截止4月20日，美国棉花播种进度11%，持平往年同期水平。3、国内新棉播种中，新疆大部分地区已经播种完毕，东疆和南疆部分棉区 已经出苗。4、据中国棉花市场监测系统，2025年我国棉花意向种植面积4376.3万亩，同比增加1.5%，增幅较上次预测环比下降0.3个百分点；其中新疆地区棉花意向种 植面积3890.4万亩，同比增加2.6%。 需求端：国内纺织企业开 ...

◼ 品种观点参考 时间周期说明：短期为一周以内、中期为两周至一月 | 品种 | | 短期 | 中期 | 日内 | 观点参考 | 核心逻辑概要 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 焦煤 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 基本面偏空，焦煤低位震荡 | | 焦炭 | 2509 | 震荡 | 震荡 | 震荡 偏弱 | 震荡思路 | 多空博弈，焦炭震荡调整 | 备注： 投资咨询业务资格：证监许可【2011】1778 号 宝城期货煤焦早报（2025 年 4 月 28 日） 1.有夜盘的品种以夜盘收盘价为起始价格，无夜盘的品种以昨日收盘价为起始价格，当日日盘收盘 价为终点价格，计算涨跌幅度。 2.跌幅大于 1%为下跌，跌幅 0~1%为震荡偏弱，涨幅 0~1%为震荡偏强，涨幅大于 1%为上涨。 3.震荡偏强/偏弱只针对日内观点，短期和中期不做区分。 ◼ 主要品种价格行情驱动逻辑—商品期货黑色板块 品种：焦煤（JM） 日内观点：震荡偏弱 中期观点：震荡 参考观点：震荡思路 核心逻辑：3、4 月期间，山西暂未出现影响较大的生产事故，区域 ...