Report Summary 1. Investment Rating No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core View The report presents the latest fundamental data of aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy, and briefly mentions macro - related news. It shows that aluminum is affected by macro - disturbances, alumina is in a range - bound oscillation, and cast aluminum alloy follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum. The trend intensities of aluminum, alumina, and aluminum alloy are all neutral [1][3]. 3. Summary by Catalog 3.1 Futures Market - **Aluminum**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 21,530 yuan, down 40 yuan from the previous day, with a trading volume of 169,843 lots and an open interest of 338,582 lots. The LME Aluminum 3M closing price was 2,815 US dollars, unchanged from the previous day. The LME cancellation warrant ratio was 10.89%, up 0.77% from the previous day [1]. - **Alumina**: The closing price of the Shanghai Alumina main contract was 2,732 yuan, down 8 yuan from the previous day, with a trading volume of 266,933 lots and an open interest of 411,305 lots [1]. - **Aluminum Alloy**: The closing price of the aluminum alloy main contract was 20,780 yuan, down 35 yuan from the previous day, with a trading volume of 4,864 lots and an open interest of 12,349 lots [1]. 3.2 Spot Market - **Aluminum**: The domestic average price of aluminum ingots was 21,530 yuan, and the social inventory of domestic aluminum ingots was 613,000 tons, down 24,000 tons from the previous day. The LME aluminum ingot inventory was 544,100 tons, down 2,000 tons from the previous day [1]. - **Alumina**: The domestic average price of alumina was 2,861 yuan, and the alumina price at Lianyungang's arrival port was 345 US dollars/ton [1]. - **Related Products**: The pre - baked anode market price was 5,887 yuan, the Foshan aluminum rod processing fee was 360 yuan, and the Shandong 1A60 aluminum rod processing fee was 50 yuan [1]. 3.3 Macro News - As of the week ending November 15th, the number of initial unemployment claims decreased by 8,000 to 220,000, lower than the expected 227,000. However, the number of continued unemployment claims slightly rose to 1,974,000, higher than the expected 1,950,000, reaching the highest level since October 2021 [3]. - There is a new divergence between hawks and doves within the Federal Reserve. Cleveland Fed President Hammack strongly opposes further interest rate cuts, warning that inflation is difficult to control and monetary policy needs to be tightened [3].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided content. 2. Core View The report presents the latest data on zinc's fundamentals, including prices, trading volumes, open interests, premiums, and inventories, as well as relevant news. The zinc trend strength is rated as neutral, with a value of 0 [1][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Fundamental Tracking - **Prices**: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 22,385 yuan/ton, down 0.16%; the closing price of LME zinc 3M electronic trading was 2,990 dollars/ton, down 0.02% [1]. - **Trading Volumes**: The trading volume of SHFE zinc main contract was 48,772 lots, a decrease of 42,475 lots; the trading volume of LME zinc was 9,480 lots, a decrease of 5,123 lots [1]. - **Open Interests**: The open interest of SHFE zinc main contract was 88,862 lots, an increase of 21,375 lots; the open interest of LME zinc was 220,789 lots, an increase of 2,373 lots [1]. - **Premiums**: The premium of Shanghai 0 zinc was 30 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME CASH - 3M premium was 150.75 dollars/ton, an increase of 50.75 dollars/ton [1]. - **Inventories**: SHFE zinc futures inventory was 73,668 tons, a decrease of 1,646 tons; LME zinc inventory was 46,075 tons, an increase of 1,000 tons [1]. News The delayed September non - farm payroll report in the US showed conflicting signals in the job market. New jobs significantly exceeded expectations, but the unemployment rate rose to a four - year high of 4.4%. The reports for October and November will be released together on December 16, which may complicate the Fed's decision in December [1].

Report Title - Copper: Macroeconomic Disturbances Limit Price Increases [1] Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - Macroeconomic disturbances limit the upward movement of copper prices [1] Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Fundamental Tracking - **Futures Data**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 87,550 with a daily increase of 0.82%, and the night - session closing price was 87,400 with a decrease of 0.17%. The LME Copper 3M electronic - disk price was 10,859 with a decrease of 0.35%. The trading volume and open interest of the Shanghai Copper index and LME Copper 3M electronic - disk had corresponding changes. The inventory of Shanghai Copper decreased by 131 to 43,957, and the inventory of LME Copper decreased by 75 to 136,175. The LME Copper注销仓单 ratio was 7.44% with a decrease of 0.05% [1] - **Spot Data**: The price of Shanghai 1 bright copper increased by 200 to 78,600. There were corresponding changes in various spot - related spreads and costs, such as the spot - to - futures near - month spread, the near - month contract to the first - continuous contract spread, etc. [1] 2. Macroeconomic and Industry News - **Macroeconomic News**: In China, the new social financing in October was 810 billion yuan, and the new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan. The M2 - M1 scissors gap widened. The US House of Representatives passed a temporary appropriation bill, ending the government shutdown. Fed officials took a hawkish stance, causing the three major US stock indexes to record their largest one - month drop [1] - **Industry News**: The US officially announced a new critical minerals list, including copper for the first time. Tanzania reopened its border with Zambia, resuming the flow of goods on this important trade corridor. Freeport Indonesia completed the investigation of a mudslide incident at its Grasberg copper - gold mine. Peru's copper production in September increased by 3.7% year - on - year to 240,995 tons, and the production in the first 9 months of 2025 was about 2.048 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 2.7% [1][3] 3. Trend Intensity - The trend intensity of copper is 0, within the range of [- 2,2], indicating a neutral trend [3]

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: Expectations of interest rate cuts are rising [2]. - Silver: Reached a new high [2]. - Copper: Macro - level disturbances limit price increases [2]. - Zinc: Trading in a range [2]. - Lead: Reduced overseas inventories support prices [2]. - Tin: Pulled back from a high [2]. - Aluminum: Tend to fluctuate upward [2]. - Alumina: Trading at the bottom [2]. - Cast aluminum alloy: Follow the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2]. - Nickel: High inventory accumulation competes with risks in Indonesia, trading at a low level [2]. - Stainless steel: Lacks upward momentum, but the downside is also limited [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Gold and Silver - **Price and Trading Volume**: Shanghai Gold 2512 closed at 961.22 with a daily increase of 1.63%, and its night - session closing price was 956.96 with a 0.11% increase. Shanghai Silver 2512 closed at 12588 with a 4.34% daily increase, and its night - session closing price was 12405.00 with a 0.40% increase. Trading volumes and positions of both gold and silver contracts showed certain changes compared with the previous day [4]. - **Inventory and ETF**: Gold and silver ETF positions and inventory levels also changed. For example, the SPDR Gold ETF position increased by 2 to 1,048.93, and the SLV Silver ETF position (the day before yesterday) increased by 85 to 15,173.28 [4]. - **News**: Multiple Fed officials made hawkish remarks, and the market predicts that the probability of an interest rate cut in December is less than 50%. The US House of Representatives passed a temporary appropriation bill, ending the government shutdown [4][7]. Copper - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract was 87,550 with a 0.82% daily increase, and its night - session closing price was 87400 with a - 0.17% change. The London Copper 3M electronic - trading closing price was 10,859 with a - 0.35% change [8]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Copper inventories in Shanghai and London decreased, and various spreads also showed different changes [8]. - **News**: China's new social financing in October was 810 billion yuan, and new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, with the M2 - M1 gap widening. The US House of Representatives passed a temporary appropriation bill, and the US government shutdown ended. The US officially included copper in the new key mineral list [8][10]. Zinc - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract was 22740 with a 0.26% daily increase, and the London Zinc 3M electronic - trading closing price was 3072 with a 0.10% increase. Trading volumes and positions of both Shanghai and London zinc contracts changed [11]. - **News**: Multiple Fed officials made hawkish remarks [11]. Lead - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract was 17670 with a 0.06% daily increase, and the London Lead 3M electronic - trading closing price was 2092 with a 1.21% increase. Trading volumes and positions of both Shanghai and London lead contracts changed [14]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Shanghai lead inventories increased, while London lead inventories decreased. Various spreads also showed different changes [14]. - **News**: China's new social financing in October was 810 billion yuan, and new RMB loans were 220 billion yuan, with the M2 - M1 gap widening. The US House of Representatives passed a temporary appropriation bill, and the US government shutdown ended [14]. Tin - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract was 298,140 with a 1.95% daily increase, and the London Tin 3M electronic - trading closing price was 37,065 with a - 0.91% change. Trading volumes and positions of both Shanghai and London tin contracts changed [18]. - **Inventory and Spread**: Shanghai tin inventories increased, and London tin inventories remained unchanged. Various spreads also showed different changes [18]. - **News**: Multiple Fed officials made hawkish remarks, and China's new social financing in October was 810 billion yuan, etc [19]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 22050, with certain changes compared with previous trading days. Alumina and cast aluminum alloy also had corresponding price and trading - volume data changes [22]. - **Inventory and Spread**: LME aluminum inventories and various spreads showed different trends [22]. - **News**: China's new social financing in October was 810 billion yuan, and the US government shutdown ended [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - **Price and Trading Volume**: The closing price of the Shanghai Nickel main contract was 118,930, and the closing price of the stainless - steel main contract was 12,475. Trading volumes and positions of both nickel and stainless - steel contracts changed [25]. - **News**: An Indonesian mining company's mining area was taken over, and the Indonesian government suspended the issuance of new smelting licenses [25][28].

Report Industry Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. Core Viewpoints The report presents the market trends and outlooks for various commodities on November 14, 2025, including precious metals, base metals, energy products, agricultural products, etc. Each commodity has its own specific trend, such as gold seeing a rise in interest rate cut expectations, silver hitting a new high, and copper being restricted by macro - disturbances [2]. Summary by Commodity Precious Metals - **Gold**: Interest rate cut expectations are rising, with the Shanghai Gold 2512 contract closing at 961.22 yuan with a daily increase of 1.63%. Trend strength is 1 [2][5]. - **Silver**: It has reached a new high, with the Shanghai Silver 2512 contract closing at 12,588 yuan with a daily increase of 4.34%. Trend strength is 1 [2][5]. Base Metals - **Copper**: Macro - disturbances limit price increases. The Shanghai Copper main contract closed at 87,550 yuan with a daily increase of 0.82%. Trend strength is 0 [2][9]. - **Zinc**: It is in a range - bound oscillation. The Shanghai Zinc main contract closed at 22,740 yuan with a daily increase of 0.26%. Trend strength is 0 [2][12]. - **Lead**: Decreasing overseas inventories support the price. The Shanghai Lead main contract closed at 17,670 yuan with a daily increase of 0.06%. Trend strength is 0 [2][15]. - **Tin**: It has fallen from a high level. The Shanghai Tin main contract closed at 298,140 yuan with a daily increase of 1.95%. Trend strength is 1 [2][17]. - **Aluminum**: It is oscillating with a slightly upward trend. The Shanghai Aluminum main contract closed at 22,050 yuan. Trend strength is 1 [2][22]. - **Alumina**: It is oscillating at the bottom. The Shanghai Alumina main contract closed at 2,840 yuan. Trend strength is 0 [2][22]. - **Nickel**: High inventories and risks in Indonesia are in a game, resulting in low - level oscillation. The Shanghai Nickel main contract closed at 118,930 yuan. Trend strength is 0 [2][25]. - **Stainless Steel**: There is a lack of upward drive, and the downside is not extensive. The Stainless Steel main contract closed at 12,475 yuan. Trend strength is 0 [2][25]. Energy and Chemical Products - **Carbonate Lithium**: It is oscillating at a high level with potential upward pressure. The 2601 contract closed at 87,840 yuan. Trend strength is 0 [2][30]. - **Industrial Silicon**: Warehouse receipts are continuing to decline, with strong bottom support. The Si2601 contract closed at 9,145 yuan. Trend strength is 1 [2][33]. - **Polysilicon**: Attention should be paid to the possibility of sentiment decline. The PS2601 contract closed at 54,195 yuan. Trend strength is 0 [2][34]. - **Iron Ore**: The inventory build - up pressure has materialized, and the price has fallen from a high level. The 12601 contract closed at 774 yuan with a daily increase of 1.44%. Trend strength is 0 [2][37]. - **Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil**: The decline in apparent demand data has narrowed, and they are in wide - range oscillations. The RB2601 and HC2601 contracts are the main ones for observation. Trend strength for both is 0 [2][40]. - **Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese**: Cost provides bottom support, and they are in wide - range oscillations. Trend strength for both is 0 [2][44]. - **Coke**: It is following the downward trend. The J2601 contract closed at 1,881 yuan with a daily decrease of 0.2%. Trend strength is - 1 [2][48]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply expectations are fluctuating, and the valuation has declined. The JM2601 contract closed at 1,214 yuan with a daily decrease of 0.4%. Trend strength is - 1 [2][49]. - **Log**: It is oscillating repeatedly. The 2601 contract closed at 783.5 yuan with a daily increase of 0.6%. Trend strength is 0 [2][51]. Others There are also various other commodities such as plastics, fibers, and agricultural products, each with their own specific trends and price movements as described in the report [2].

Core Viewpoint - The tin market is experiencing fluctuations with the main contract rising by 1.04% to 286,560 yuan/ton, influenced by tight domestic ore supply despite long-term easing expectations from Myanmar's Wa State resumption of production [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic mining sources remain tight, impacting the overall supply of tin [1] - The operating rate of tin smelting plants in Yunnan and Jiangxi stabilized at a high of 69.13%, but further increases are limited due to ongoing tightness in tin ore supply [1] - The seasonal maintenance of large smelting plants in Yunnan has concluded, leading to production recovery, but the supply of tin ore remains constrained [1] Market Conditions - Despite the approval of mining licenses in Myanmar's Wa State, actual export volumes are significantly below normal levels due to the rainy season and slow resumption of production, failing to fill the supply gap [1] - Recent declines in tin prices have spurred some downstream replenishment demand, but limited warehouse arrivals have resulted in a reduction of social tin inventory [1] Future Outlook - Jinrui Futures comments that recent price fluctuations are primarily driven by macroeconomic disturbances, with a slight accumulation expected under domestic baseline conditions, while overseas markets continue to experience low inventory levels [1] - Overall, the divergence between macroeconomic factors and fundamentals suggests that tin prices are likely to maintain a high-level oscillation [1]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The overall market sentiment is bearish, with most agricultural product prices showing downward or volatile trends [1]. - The prices of natural rubber and synthetic rubber are under pressure, while the prices of some products such as corn and cotton are in a range - bound state [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Market Quotes and Views 3.1.1 Oils and Fats - **View**: Yesterday, the prices rose first and then fell, and nearly half of the Brazilian soybeans have been planted. - **Logic**: Optimistic expectations for US soybean exports led to an increase in US soybeans and soybean oil on Monday. Domestically, the prices of oils and fats rose first and then fell yesterday, with soybean oil relatively strong. The US government shutdown, doubts about the Fed's interest - rate cut, and OPEC +'s decision to suspend production increase have affected the market. The US soybean harvest is nearing completion, and the probability of a decrease in US soybean yield is high. Brazilian soybean planting is progressing smoothly, with a planting progress of 47.1% as of November 1st. The expected arrival volume of imported soybeans in China is at a relatively high level, and the speed of domestic soybean oil inventory reduction is expected to be slow. Malaysian palm oil may continue to accumulate inventory in October, while Indonesian palm oil inventory remains low. Indian vegetable oil imports may decline seasonally. The supply of rapeseed oil in China is expected to increase [8]. - **Outlook**: Palm oil and rapeseed oil are expected to be in a weak shock state, while soybean oil will be in a shock state [8]. 3.1.2 Protein Meals - **View**: The crushing profit continues to recover, and the M1 - 5 reverse spread should be held. - **Logic**: CBOT soybeans are overbought, and soybean meal is in a high - level shock state, while the upward trend of rapeseed meal has slowed down. The US government's statement on China's soybean - purchasing plan has boosted the export expectation of US soybeans. The export volume of old - crop Brazilian soybeans in October decreased. In November, Brazilian soybeans enter the critical growth period, and the impact of La Nina needs to be monitored. Domestically, the short - term crushing profit of imported soybeans has recovered, and the import expectation is high. In the medium term, the quantity of China's soybean purchases from the US, South American weather, and the strength of the consumption peak season in the fourth quarter will determine the upward height of soybean meal. In the long term, there is no supply gap for soybeans in the fourth quarter of 2025 and the first quarter of 2026. The demand for soybean meal is expected to be stable or increase slightly, while rapeseed meal may follow the trend of soybean meal [9]. - **Outlook**: US soybeans and Dalian soybean meal will be in a shock state. The soybean meal 1 - 5 reverse spread should be held, and put options should be held [9]. 3.1.3 Corn and Starch - **View**: Farmers' reluctance to sell has increased, and downstream rigid demand provides support. - **Logic**: The domestic corn price is generally stable, with slight fluctuations in some areas. In the Northeast, farmers' reluctance to sell has increased, the circulation of grain sources has slowed down, and the supply pressure has been relieved. At the same time, the increase in external flow, transportation bottlenecks, and regional shortages in the sales area have supported the price. However, considering the expected high yield in the Northeast and the fact that the grain in some areas has not been fully marketed, the spot price still faces pressure [9][10]. - **Outlook**: Corn will be in a shock state, and short - term waiting and watching are recommended [10]. 3.1.4 Pigs - **View**: The supply for slaughter is abundant, and the price is weak. - **Logic**: In the short term, the utilization rate of secondary fattening pens has increased, but the rebound in pig prices has suppressed the sentiment of secondary fattening. The large - scale pig farms have a fast slaughter rhythm. In the medium term, the national sow inventory was still at a high level in the first half of 2025, and the number of newborn piglets increased continuously from January to September. It is expected that the slaughter volume of pigs will continue to increase in the fourth quarter. In the long term, the sow inventory has started to decline, and the reduction of sows is expected to accelerate in the fourth quarter, and the supply pressure will gradually ease in the second half of 2026 [10][11]. - **Outlook**: The price of pigs will be in a weak shock state. In the near - term, the price is weak, while in the far - term, the price is supported by the expectation of production capacity reduction. Attention should be paid to the reverse spread strategy [11]. 3.1.5 Natural Rubber - **View**: The market sentiment is bearish, and the price continues to decline. - **Logic**: The bearish sentiment in the financial market has led to a continuous decline in the natural rubber price. The cancellation of RU warehouse receipts and the slow progress of new rubber registration have made the valuation of RU lower than that of NR. In November, the import pressure may be relatively large, which will put pressure on NR. The short - term RU - NR spread may have a corrective market. The recent price fluctuations are mainly affected by the macro - environment. If there is no new macro - driving force, the rubber price may continue to adjust downward. However, due to the approaching domestic rubber - cutting season and the potential for speculation on RU warehouse receipts, the downward space is limited [3][12][13]. - **Outlook**: The rubber price will maintain a high - elasticity shock at the bottom. It is difficult to have a unilateral trend, and attention should be paid to widening the RU - NR spread in the short term [3][13]. 3.1.6 Synthetic Rubber - **View**: The price of raw materials continues to decline, and the price hits a new low. - **Logic**: The continuous decline in the price of butadiene and the weak sentiment in the commodity market have led to a new low in the synthetic rubber price. The main reason is the rapid decline in the price of butadiene, which has weakened the bottom support of the market. The supply of butadiene is expected to be in excess in the next two months before the end of the year, and the price may continue to decline [14]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals and raw material prices are under great pressure. Before the obvious supply - demand contradiction of butadiene is resolved, short - selling on rallies is recommended [14]. 3.1.7 Cotton - **View**: The short - term upward momentum of cotton prices has weakened, and a slight correction may occur. - **Logic**: The new - season cotton production in Xinjiang is less than expected, and the increase in the purchase price in southern Xinjiang since October has supported the cotton price. However, most of the positive factors have been priced in. The improvement in Sino - US trade relations has limited short - term impact on actual trade. Currently, it is the peak season for new cotton listing, and the increase in inventory and hedging activities will limit the upward space of cotton prices. However, the cost provides certain support [15]. - **Outlook**: In the short term, the 01 contract will be in a range - bound state. In the long term, the cotton price may rise due to the expected reduction of inventory in the 2025/2026 cotton year [15]. 3.1.8 Sugar - **View**: The general direction is to maintain a bearish operation. - **Logic**: In the international market, the peak season of Brazilian sugar production has ended, and the export volume in October has decreased. However, as the Northern Hemisphere enters the peak crushing season, the supply of new sugar will increase, and the downward pressure on international sugar prices remains. The market still expects an increase in Brazilian sugar production, and Thailand and India are also expected to have an increase in production in the new season. In the domestic market, the demand from August to September was average, and the industrial inventory in Guangxi and Yunnan increased year - on - year. Although the tightening of import control and the expectation of limited future imports have supported the domestic sugar price, as the southern sugar - producing areas enter the peak crushing season, the supply will increase, and the domestic sugar price also faces downward pressure [16]. - **Outlook**: In the medium - to - long term, the sugar price will be in a weak shock state. A short - selling strategy on rallies is recommended, and the price is expected to fluctuate between 5400 - 5500 yuan/ton [16]. 3.1.9 Pulp - **View**: The strong upward trend has paused, and the market has returned to a quiet state. - **Logic**: The recent upward trend of pulp has paused, and the spot trading has become quiet again. The previous increase was due to the expected increase in the price of downstream paper and the improvement in the tender demand for cultural paper. In the medium term, the previous negative factors in the pulp market have not been fully digested, and the positive factors in downstream demand can only bring short - term support. Fundamentally, the demand for softwood pulp is low, and there is export pressure from overseas to China. The hardwood pulp is in a state of over - supply. The futures price is approaching the spot price, and it is difficult for the futures to have a premium. The large number of expiring warehouse receipts also puts pressure on the futures price. However, there are also some positive factors, such as the increase in the price of packaging paper, the increase in the cost of hardwood imports, and the expected improvement in the demand for cultural paper in November and December [18]. - **Outlook**: The pulp price will be in a shock state. The market is dominated by warehouse receipts and weak supply - demand, and the change in waste pulp may cause fluctuations. It is recommended to wait and watch [18]. 3.1.10 Double - Glued Paper - **View**: Double - glued paper is in a shock state. - **Logic**: The main contract of double - glued paper closed at 4266 yuan/ton yesterday, with a slight increase. The supply of paper is still in a serious over - supply situation, and the demand from the publishing tender has started, but the social orders have not improved significantly, and the downstream consumption is still weak. Some paper mills are facing great production and sales pressure. Although some paper mills have announced a price increase plan in early November, the market is in a wait - and - see state, and most prices are stable at the end of the month. In the future, in November, paper mills may increase their quotes as planned, and the price of double - glued paper is expected to stabilize [19]. - **Outlook**: A wait - and - see strategy is recommended for the unilateral strategy. Attention should be paid to the impact of new driving factors on market sentiment [20]. 3.1.11 Logs - **View**: Logs maintain a bottom - shock state. - **Logic**: The fundamentals of logs have continued to weaken this week, and the spot and futures prices have continued to decline. The recent concentrated arrival of logs at ports and the decline in the sales of laminated wood have put pressure on the spot price. The increase in the US dollar - based price two weeks ago has made it difficult for foreign quotes to be accepted. As New Zealand enters summer, the pressure of blue - stained logs on arrival will increase. After the peak season in the fourth quarter, logs may accumulate inventory again. However, the current valuation of logs is not high, and the inventory in the Jiangsu market is relatively low, so the downward space is limited [22]. - **Outlook**: The fundamentals of logs are weak, and the spot price may decline. The market will be in a bottom - shock state in the near term [22]. 3.2 Variety Data Monitoring No specific data content provided for detailed summary. 3.3 Index Data - **Comprehensive Index**: On November 4, 2025, the commodity index was 2229.67, down 0.92%; the commodity 20 index was 2521.83, down 0.98%; the industrial product index was 2213.57, down 1.07% [177]. - **Agricultural Product Index**: On November 4, 2025, the agricultural product index was 923.28, down 0.41% today, down 0.57% in the past 5 days, down 1.97% in the past month, and down 3.29% since the beginning of the year [179].

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - **Gold**: The US September CPI data led to market expectations of Fed rate - cuts. The strong US dollar is bearish for gold, but gold buying power remains strong. Gold is expected to oscillate at a high level in the medium - term [1]. - **Soda Ash**: The domestic soda ash market is weakly stable. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with support at 1220. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on dips [2]. - **Rebar**: The medium - long - term over - capacity in the steel industry may be alleviated, but short - term impact is limited. Rebar demand is improving but at a low level. The price is expected to oscillate at a low level in the short - term [4]. - **Iron Ore**: Supply is relatively stable, and demand is supported by high iron - water levels. However, the profit contraction of steel mills and the end of the peak season limit demand. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [5]. - **Coking Coal**: Supply is tightening, and demand from downstream and intermediate sectors is strong. The coal price is strong, and the futures price is expected to be supported in the short - term [6]. - **Pigs**: With increased demand due to lower temperatures and reduced slaughter pressure, the pig price may strengthen after adjustment. The futures price is expected to rebound at the bottom in the short - term [7]. - **Palm Oil**: As the traditional production - reduction season approaches in November, the futures price may recover. However, due to expected ample supply, the spot price is under pressure. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term [7]. - **Soybeans**: Imported soybean spot market is firm, and domestic demand is strong. Bean 2 is expected to stabilize in the short - term. Domestic new - season soybeans are strong [8]. - **Medium - Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: Liquidity is loose, which supports the bond market. But with the stock market breaking through the previous range, the bond market operation is more difficult. It is expected to oscillate with a slightly bearish bias in the medium - term [9]. - **Silver**: US economic data in October is positive, which is bullish for silver. With a high probability of rate - cuts in October, the downside is limited. It is long - term bullish and short - term oscillating [9]. - **PVC**: Domestic PVC production is expected to increase, while demand is entering the off - season. The price is expected to oscillate in the short - term, with support at 4695 for the 01 contract. It is recommended to wait and see [10]. - **Methanol**: Domestic methanol production is at a high level, and downstream demand is stable. The port inventory is accumulating slightly. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term, with resistance at 2300. It is recommended to wait for further stabilization [11]. - **Crude Oil**: The crude oil market is in a game between short - term geopolitical bullish factors and long - term supply - demand bearish factors. A short - term low - level bullish approach is recommended [11]. 3. Summary by Variety Gold - US September CPI rose 3% year - on - year, lower than expected. Core CPI and service inflation slowed. The market fully priced in two 25 - basis - point Fed rate cuts [1]. - The strong US dollar is bearish for gold, but buying power remains strong. Gold may oscillate at a high level in the medium - term [1]. Soda Ash - The national mainstream price of heavy - quality soda ash is 1271 yuan/ton, with stable recent prices. Weekly production is 74.05 tons, down 3.93% week - on - week [2]. - Total inventory of soda ash manufacturers is 170.21 tons, up 0.09% week - on - week. The float glass market has stable start - up, rising inventory, and average trading [2]. Rebar - The blast - furnace start - up rate of 247 steel mills is 84.71%, up 0.44 percentage points week - on - week. The iron - making capacity utilization rate is 89.94%, down 0.39 percentage points [4]. - Steel mill profitability is 47.62%, down 7.79 percentage points week - on - week. Daily average pig - iron output is 239.9 tons, down 1.05 tons week - on - week [4]. Iron Ore - The total inventory of imported iron ore at 45 ports is 14423.59 tons, up 145.32 tons week - on - week. The daily average port clearance volume is 312.65 tons, down 3.07 tons [5]. - The number of ships at ports is 107, down 17. Supply is stable, and demand is supported by high iron - water levels, but profit contraction affects demand [5]. Coking Coal - The capacity utilization rate of independent coking enterprises is 73.47%, down 0.77%. Daily coke production is 64.61 tons, down 0.68 tons [6]. - Coke inventory is 58.64 tons, up 1.35 tons. Coking coal inventory is 1029.70 tons, up 32.33 tons. Supply is tightening, and demand is strong [6]. Pigs - As of October 24, the average slaughter weight of pigs is 123.21 kg, down 0.22 kg. The weekly slaughter start - up rate is 35.3%, down 0.34% [7]. - The profit of purchasing piglets for breeding is - 279.65 yuan/head, up 67.28 yuan/head. The self - breeding profit is - 149.54 yuan/head, up 53.28 yuan/head [7]. Palm Oil - The estimated export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 25 is 1283814 tons, down 0.4%. The futures price may recover in November, but spot price is under pressure [7]. Soybeans - In the 43rd week (October 18 - 24), the actual soybean crushing volume of domestic oil mills is 236.74 tons, with a start - up rate of 65.13%. The 44th - week start - up rate is expected to decline slightly [8]. Medium - Long - Term Treasury Bonds - The central bank will conduct 900 billion yuan of MLF operations on October 27, with a net investment of 200 billion yuan. Liquidity is loose, but the bond market operation is difficult due to the stock market [9]. Silver - The US October manufacturing, service, and composite PMI are all better than expected. Economic data is positive for silver, and the downside is limited due to expected rate - cuts [9]. PVC - The price of East China SG - 5 type PVC is 4600 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The capacity utilization rate is 76.57%, down 0.12% week - on - week [10]. - Social inventory is 103.52 tons, down 0.13% week - on - week. Domestic production is expected to increase, and demand is entering the off - season [10]. Methanol - The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2240 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The domestic weekly capacity utilization rate is 87.4%, down 2.13% [11]. - Port inventory is 151.22 tons, up 2.08 tons week - on - week. The 01 contract is expected to oscillate weakly in the short - term [11]. Crude Oil - After the US sanctions on Russian oil companies, Reliance Industries stops buying Russian oil. The market is in a game between short - term geopolitical and long - term supply - demand factors [11].

Group 1 - The PTA futures market is experiencing a strong upward trend, with the main contract opening at 4434.00 CNY/ton and reaching a high of 4488.00 CNY, reflecting an increase of approximately 1.59% [1] - Major producers are reducing output due to various reasons, leading to a slight decrease in supply, while demand remains lukewarm despite the traditional peak season [1] - The processing fee for PTA is at a low level, indicating an overall undervaluation, but the long-term supply-demand outlook is pessimistic, suggesting a continuation of the current oscillating market pattern [1] Group 2 - Despite expectations of increased PTA maintenance, the polyester production load is anticipated to decline during the traditional off-peak season, resulting in a weak supply-demand outlook for PTA [2] - The cost side shows that PX loads remain high in Asia and domestically, putting pressure on PXN, while crude oil prices are fluctuating [2] - The overall supply-demand dynamics for PTA are weak, with recent news indicating a potential easing of US-China trade tensions, warranting attention to the progress of US-China economic negotiations [2]

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the reports. 2. Core Views - **Overall Market**: The reports cover various commodities, including coal, metals, agricultural products, and energy. Each commodity has its own supply - demand situation, price trends, and influencing factors. Market participants should pay attention to factors such as policy changes, geopolitical events, and macro - economic conditions [1][3][4]. - **Price Trends**: Different commodities show different price trends. Some are expected to have short - term support or upward movement, while others may face downward pressure or continue to fluctuate [1][3][4]. 3. Summary by Commodity **Coal and Coking Products** - **Coking Coal**: The average national ton - coke profit is - 13 yuan/ton. The market trading atmosphere is good, and the coal price in some producing areas continues to rebound. Due to frequent coal mine accidents and limited production increase space, the coking coal fundamentals are healthy, and the futures price is expected to be supported in the short term [1]. **Metals** - **Gold**: With the Trump administration relaxing tariff policies, the tariff disturbance may weaken, and precious metals may face a further correction risk [1]. - **Silver**: The silver price has risen by nearly 70% this year. The spot price is high, but it may face a correction risk after the market has priced in the Fed's October interest rate cut [4]. - **Iron Ore**: The inventory of imported iron ore in 45 ports has increased, and the daily port clearance volume has decreased. The iron ore fundamentals have slightly weakened, but the overall pressure is not prominent. The price is expected to fluctuate in the short term [4]. - **Steel (Rebar)**: After the National Day, the demand for rebar has recovered, and the supply has decreased while the demand has increased. The inventory has decreased, but it is still at a relatively high level. With policy support, the futures price may repair upwards from a low level [3]. **Agricultural Products** - **Soybeans**: The domestic feed enterprise's soybean meal inventory days have decreased. Due to strong domestic demand, short - term bean No. 2 may stabilize in a volatile manner, and the domestic new - season soybeans may have upward space [7]. - **Palm Oil**: The export volume of Malaysian palm oil from October 1 - 15 has increased significantly. The market lacks clear news guidance, and the short - term supply - demand trend remains unchanged. It is recommended to buy on dips [7]. **Energy** - **Crude Oil**: OPEC+ is increasing production, supply from Russia and the US is high, and global demand growth is slowing. Geopolitical factors also suppress oil prices. However, if the Sino - US trade negotiation reaches more consensus, the oil price may be supported in the short term [8]. - **Asphalt**: The refinery's production is stable, and the demand is affected by weather. The demand and production may show a seasonal decline, and the price is under pressure [9]. **Chemical Products** - **Rubber**: Overseas weather improvement has put pressure on raw material prices, and the cost support has weakened. The rubber price may further decline, but the inventory decline in Qingdao Port limits the decline. It is recommended to operate cautiously [10]. - **PVC**: The supply of PVC has decreased from a high level, and the production is expected to increase. The demand is picking up steadily, and the inventory has decreased slightly. It is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [11]. - **Soda Ash**: The price of soda ash is stable and slightly weak. The supply is high, and the downstream glass industry has stable production lines and general procurement sentiment. The soda ash 01 contract is expected to fluctuate weakly in the short term [12]. - **Plastic (LLDPE)**: The LLDPE production has decreased, but the market supply is still sufficient. The downstream demand increases slowly, and the cost support is weak. The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term [13]. **Financial Products** - **Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds**: With the government's measures to boost the economy and the central bank's loose monetary policy, the medium - and long - term bond market is bearish. The bond market operation is difficult, and a mid - term oscillatory thinking is recommended [5]. **Livestock** - **Pigs**: The current supply - demand contradiction is still prominent. The supply is expected to be loose in the short term, and the price will be suppressed. It is recommended to wait and see [5].