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纯苯苯乙烯周报-20250608
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-06-08 07:57
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term absolute prices of benzene and styrene will mainly fluctuate. High supply remains the core issue. Attention should be paid to the implementation of new pure benzene plants from June to July [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene - Weak reality: Domestic production has recovered rapidly, ports maintain high inventories, and continue to squeeze BZN. Pure benzene imports exceed expectations, and there are also many exports of EB downstream products [5][16]. - Hydro - benzene supply is limited [18]. - The profits of pure benzene downstream products show different trends, with various production margins of products such as caprolactam, phenol, and aniline changing over time [27]. Styrene - Current situation: Neutral inventory, high profits, and neutral production. High profits are gradually stimulating high supply, small - scale plants are gradually restarting, and port inventories are accelerating accumulation. It is expected that port inventories will reach over 100,000 tons by the end of June, and the short - term trend is mainly weak and fluctuating [3][46]. Aromatics - Global price difference: The price difference in logistics between the US and Asia cannot be opened, so pure benzene stays in Asia [50]. - Internal price difference: The internal price difference of aromatics has returned [57]. Second - quarter Contradiction - There is a contradiction between the destocking of chemical products in the second quarter and the weakness of upstream oil products [59]. Downstream Products - ABS: Due to an increase in inventory samples, the inventory has risen significantly. Capacity utilization, production margins, and production have different performance trends [61]. - PS: Factory inventory structure has improved rapidly, capacity utilization has changed, and production margins and prices have also shown corresponding trends [3]. - EPS: Factories have received few 618 orders, which has reduced their willingness to start production during the Dragon Boat Festival. Production, inventory, and production margins also have their own characteristics [3].
纯苯苯乙烯周报-20250525
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-25 10:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the trade - war relaxation, there was a positive feedback in the off - season from terminal trader restocking, supporting the styrene absolute price to fill the gap, but new orders have not been finalized yet [3]. - The upstream liquid hidden inventory in the industrial chain is gradually being depleted and transferred to downstream solid plastic particles. Attention should be paid to actual orders and the speed of downstream hidden inventory depletion [3]. - High styrene profits are gradually stimulating high supply. If the supply returns rapidly, it will turn the de - stocking balance sheet into a stock - building one in June [3]. - The port basis has strengthened rapidly. Attention should be paid to the paper - cargo delivery situation in the first half of next week [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene - The pure benzene spot with neutral valuation, neutral inventory, and medium - high supply still needs time to stabilize [5]. - Pure benzene imports have exceeded expectations, and there are also many exports of EB downstream products [15]. - The supply of hydrogenated benzene is limited [21]. 3.2 Pure Benzene Downstream - Different downstream products of pure benzene, such as caprolactam, adipic acid, phenol, aniline, etc., have different profit, production, and inventory situations. For example, caprolactam has certain production profit and output fluctuations, and adipic acid has its own production and capacity utilization trends [40][44][48]. 3.3 Styrene - Styrene currently has a pattern of neutral inventory, high profit, and medium output [52]. - The global spread of aromatics shows that the US - Asia logistics spread cannot be opened, and pure benzene remains in Asia [58]. - The internal spread of aromatics has returned [65]. 3.4 Second - Quarter Contradiction - There is a contradiction between the de - stocking of chemical products in the second quarter and the weakness of upstream oil products [67]. 3.5 ABS - ABS has its own inventory, capacity utilization, output, and profit situations. For example, the production enterprise's equity inventory, capacity utilization, and production profit in the East China region have shown different trends over time [69][71][76]. 3.6 PS - PS has factory inventory, capacity utilization, output, and profit characteristics. For example, the factory inventory and production profit have changed in different periods [77][84]. 3.7 EPS - EPS has factory inventory, output, profit, and price characteristics. For example, the factory inventory, production profit, and ordinary - grade material ex - factory price have shown different trends [85][86][87].