Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The current core contradiction in the market remains the pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand." The fundamental driving force is limited, and the short - term trend of the futures market is weak, expected to maintain a volatile operation. Follow - up attention should be paid to macro - sentiment changes and industry capacity adjustment [9][40]. - In terms of operation, it is recommended to wait and see for single - side trading as there are no obvious trend opportunities; no arbitrage opportunities are available; for options, consider selling the wide - straddle strategy opportunistically to collect time value [40]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 1. Market Review - Last week, the price of the main contract SA2601 of soda ash fluctuated within the range of 1,283 - 1,352 yuan/ton. As of the afternoon close on September 19, 2025, the main contract SA2601 of soda ash futures rose by 28 yuan/ton, a weekly increase of 2.17%, closing at 1,318 yuan/ton [6]. 2. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation 2.1 Production and Capacity Analysis - As of September 18, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 745,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 15,400 tons, a decline of 2.02%. Light soda ash production was 328,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11,400 tons; heavy soda ash production was 417,700 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 4,000 tons. Individual enterprise shutdowns for maintenance and equipment problems led to the supply decline [10]. - Last week, the comprehensive capacity utilization rate of soda ash was 85.53%, a month - on - month decline of 1.76%. Among them, the ammonia - soda process capacity utilization rate was 88.87%, a month - on - month decline of 1.97%; the co - production process capacity utilization rate was 75.53%, a month - on - month decline of 1.86%. The overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual production capacity of one million tons or more was 87.27%, a month - on - month decline of 1.03% [12]. 2.2 Soda Ash Inventory Analysis - As of September 18, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1,755,600 tons, an increase of 8,500 tons from the previous Monday, a growth rate of 0.49%. Among them, light soda ash inventory was 749,500 tons, a month - on - month increase of 3,200 tons; heavy soda ash inventory was 1,006,100 tons, a month - on - month increase of 5,300 tons. Compared with the previous Thursday, it decreased by 41,900 tons, a decline of 2.33%. The inventory last year was 1,398,800 tons, a year - on - year increase of 356,800 tons, a growth rate of 25.51% [14]. 2.3 Shipment Situation Analysis - On September 18, it was reported that the weekly shipment volume of Chinese soda ash enterprises was 787,600 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.25%; the overall soda ash shipment rate was 105.62%, a month - on - month increase of 2.39 percentage points. The weekly soda ash supply decreased slightly, and the shipments of individual enterprises were good, with the overall production - sales rate slightly easing [17]. 2.4 Profit Analysis - On September 18, 2025, the theoretical profit of the ammonia - soda process for soda ash in China was - 36.75 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decline of 0.45 yuan/ton. During the week, the price of raw salt on the cost side remained stable, the price of coke increased slightly, and the cost side increased; the price of soda ash remained stable, so the profit of the ammonia - soda process fluctuated downward [20]. - As of September 18, 2025, the theoretical profit (double - ton) of the co - production process for soda ash in China was - 70.50 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decline of 16 yuan/ton. During the week, the price of raw salt remained stable, the price of coal increased, the cost side strengthened; the price of soda ash fluctuated steadily, and the by - product ammonium chloride decreased slightly, so the double - ton profit of the co - production process declined [24]. 3. Downstream Industry Situation 3.1 Float Glass Industry - As of September 18, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 160,200 tons, the same as on the 11th. The weekly output of national float glass from September 12 - 18, 2025 was 1,121,200 tons, the same as the previous week, a year - on - year decrease of 4.04% [28]. - As of September 18, 2025, the total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 60,908,000 weight cases, a month - on - month decrease of 675,000 weight cases, a month - on - month decrease of 1.10%, a year - on - year decrease of 18.56%. The inventory days were 26 days, a decrease of 0.3 days from the previous period [29]. 4. Spot Market Situation - The price of 5500 - calorie steam coal increased by 10 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.46%; the price of well - mine salt in the East China region remained unchanged; the price of light soda ash in the Central China region increased by 20 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 1.77%; the price of float glass in China increased by 2 yuan/ton, a growth rate of 0.17%; the price of ammonium chloride (dry ammonium) in Henan decreased by 20 yuan/ton, a decline of 5%; the price of synthetic ammonia in Jiangsu decreased by 62 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.79% [37][39]. 5. Comprehensive Analysis - Last week, the soda ash market showed an overall volatile pattern. The supply - side pressure still exists. Although there may be fluctuations in individual devices during the week, the overall industry operating rate remains relatively high, and the production pressure has not been fundamentally alleviated. The demand side is weak, with downstream glass and photovoltaic industries purchasing on a just - in - time basis, limited new order increments, and strong market wait - and - see sentiment. Although the enterprise inventory has decreased compared with the previous week, the absolute level is still at a historically high level, reflecting the weak terminal demand. The profit situation is not optimistic, with both the ammonia - soda process and the co - production process continuing to operate at a loss, and the cost support is limited [40].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information is provided in the reports. 2. Core Views of the Reports Copper - Copper pricing will return to macro trading. In the absence of a clear recession forecast in the US, medium - and long - term supply - demand contradictions provide bottom support. Short - term prices may fluctuate strongly under the loose background. To enter a new upward cycle, the commodity and financial attributes of copper need to resonate. The reference range for the main contract is 79,000 - 81,500 [1]. Aluminum - The alumina market is in a pattern of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand", and this pattern is difficult to reverse in the short term. The short - term main contract is expected to fluctuate between 2,900 - 3,200 yuan/ton, and there is still downward pressure in the medium term. The short - term aluminum price is expected to maintain a narrow - range fluctuation, with the main contract reference range of 20,600 - 21,000 yuan/ton. If the subsequent demand improvement falls short of expectations, the aluminum price still faces the risk of falling after rising [3]. Aluminum Alloy - The short - term suppression of base metal prices by the Fed's interest rate cut is expected. The cost of scrap aluminum provides strong support for prices. With the arrival of the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season, the spot price is expected to remain firm, and the inventory accumulation rate will slow down. The short - term main contract reference range is 20,200 - 20,600 yuan/ton [4]. Zinc - Due to the expectation of loose supply, the upside space of Shanghai zinc is difficult to open. Short - term prices may be boosted by macro factors, but the fundamentals lack the elasticity to support continuous upward movement. The short - term price may fluctuate, with the main contract reference range of 21,800 - 22,800 [7]. Tin - The supply of tin ore remains tight, and the demand shows no obvious improvement. It is expected that the tin price will continue to fluctuate at a high level. The reference range is 265,000 - 285,000. Pay attention to the import situation of Burmese tin ore [9]. Nickel - The macro environment is improving, but the industrial fundamentals are still restricted by weak spot demand. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 120,000 - 125,000 [10]. Stainless Steel - The macro environment is improving, and the cost support is strengthening, but the peak - season demand has not significantly increased. The short - term disk will mainly fluctuate within a range, with the main contract reference range of 12,800 - 13,400 [11]. Lithium Carbonate - The fundamentals are in a tight balance. The supply side has increased news disturbances, and the demand is steadily optimistic. The short - term disk is expected to fluctuate strongly, with the main price center of 70,000 - 75,000 [14][16]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Copper Price and Basis - SMM 1 electrolytic copper price was 80,600 yuan/ton, down 0.64% from the previous value. The SMM 1 electrolytic copper premium was 60 yuan/ton, down 15 yuan/ton from the previous value [1]. Fundamental Data - In August, the electrolytic copper output was 1.1715 million tons, down 0.24% month - on - month; in July, the import volume was 296,900 tons, down 1.20% month - on - month [1]. Aluminum Price and Spread - SMM A00 aluminum price was 20,890 yuan/ton, down 0.29% from the previous value. The average price of alumina in Shandong was 2,965 yuan/ton, down 0.17% from the previous value [3]. Fundamental Data - In August, the alumina output was 7.7382 million tons, up 1.15% month - on - month; the electrolytic aluminum output was 3.7326 million tons, up 0.30% month - on - month [3]. Aluminum Alloy Price and Spread - The price of SMM aluminum alloy ADC12 remained unchanged at 21,050 yuan/ton. The month - to - month spread of 2511 - 2512 was - 25 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [4]. Fundamental Data - In August, the output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 615,000 tons, down 1.60% month - on - month; the output of primary aluminum alloy ingots was 271,000 tons, up 1.88% month - on - month [4]. Zinc Price and Spread - The price of SMM 0 zinc ingot was 22,160 yuan/ton, down 0.31% from the previous value. The import loss was 3,610 yuan/ton, down 315.79 yuan/ton from the previous value [7]. Fundamental Data - In August, the refined zinc output was 626,200 tons, up 3.88% month - on - month; in July, the import volume was 17,900 tons, down 50.35% month - on - month [7]. Tin Price and Spread - The price of SMM 1 tin was 272,000 yuan/ton, down 0.15% from the previous value. The import loss was 14,781.16 yuan/ton, down 3.90% from the previous value [9]. Fundamental Data - In July, the tin ore import volume was 10,278 tons, down 13.71% month - on - month; the SMM refined tin output was 15,940 tons, up 15.42% month - on - month [9]. Nickel Price and Basis - The price of SMM 1 electrolytic nickel was 122,800 yuan/ton, down 0.65% from the previous value. The 1 Jinchuan nickel premium was 2,200 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous value [10]. Fundamental Data - The output of Chinese refined nickel was 32,200 tons, up 1.26% month - on - month; the import volume was 17,536 tons, down 8.46% month - on - month [10]. Stainless Steel Price and Spread - The price of 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) was 13,181 yuan/ton, down 0.38% from the previous value. The spot - futures spread was 385 yuan/ton, down 3.75% from the previous value [11]. Fundamental Data - The output of Chinese 300 - series stainless steel crude steel was 1.7133 million tons, down 3.834% month - on - month; the import volume was 73,000 tons, down 33.30% month - on - month [11]. Lithium Carbonate Price and Spread - The average price of SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate was 73,150 yuan/ton, up 0.41% from the previous value. The 2510 - 2511 month - to - month spread was - 120 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous value [14]. Fundamental Data - In August, the lithium carbonate output was 85,240 tons, up 4.55% month - on - month; the demand was 104,023 tons, up 8.25% month - on - month [14].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core View The current soda ash market is under triple pressure of "high supply, high inventory, and weak demand." Although the price is at a historically low level, the market is expected to remain under pressure until there is a substantial reduction in inventory. Future focus should be on enterprise production cut trends and marginal changes in terminal demand [9][40]. Summary by Directory 1. Soda Ash Supply and Demand Situation - **Production and Capacity Utilization Increase**: As of August 14, 2025, the weekly domestic soda ash production was 761,300 tons, a week - on - week increase of 16,600 tons or 2.24%. The comprehensive capacity utilization rate was 87.32%, a week - on - week increase of 1.91%. Among them, the ammonia - alkali capacity utilization rate was 88.78% (down 0.42% week - on - week), the co - production capacity utilization rate was 78.74% (up 4.82% week - on - week), and the overall capacity utilization rate of 15 enterprises with an annual capacity of one million tons or more was 90.39% (up 3.12% week - on - week) [10][12]. - **Inventory Pressure Increases**: As of August 14, 2025, the total inventory of domestic soda ash manufacturers was 1.8938 million tons, an increase of 17,600 tons or 0.94% from the previous Monday. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 745,500 tons or 64.92%. Although transportation improved and shipments increased, the overall inventory continued to accumulate [8][14]. - **Shipment Volume and Rate Improve**: Last week, Chinese soda ash enterprises' shipment volume was 732,600 tons, a week - on - week increase of 8.48%. The overall shipment rate was 96.23%, a week - on - week increase of 5.54 percentage points [17]. - **Profit Analysis**: As of August 14, 2025, the theoretical profit of Chinese ammonia - alkali soda ash was 34.40 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 21.80 yuan/ton. The theoretical profit of Chinese co - production soda ash (double - ton) was 9 yuan/ton, a week - on - week decrease of 59.50 yuan/ton [20][24]. 2. Downstream Industry Situation - **Float Glass Industry Production Increases**: As of August 14, 2025, the daily output of national float glass was 159,600 tons, the same as on the 7th. The weekly production from August 8 - 14, 2025, was 1.117 million tons, the same as the previous week but a year - on - year decrease of 5.29% [28]. - **Float Glass Industry Inventory Decreases**: As of August 14, 2025, the float glass industry's operating rate was 75.34%. The total inventory of national float glass sample enterprises was 63.426 million weight boxes, a week - on - week increase of 1.579 million weight boxes or 2.55%, and a year - on - year decrease of 5.94%. The inventory days were 27.1 days, an increase of 0.7 days from the previous period [31]. 3. Spot Market Situation - The prices of most soda ash products in different regions showed a downward or stable trend. For example, the price of light soda ash in Central China decreased from 1,200 yuan/ton to 1,180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.67%. The price of heavy soda ash in East China decreased from 1,300 yuan/ton to 1,250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.85% [36][39]. 4. Comprehensive Analysis - The domestic soda ash market continued to operate weakly last week, with the supply - demand contradiction further deepening. Supply pressure increased, inventory pressure was significant, cost - end support weakened, and downstream demand did not improve. The market is expected to remain under pressure until inventory is substantially reduced [40]. 5. Operation Suggestions - **Single - side**: Look for long - position opportunities based on the cash cost line. - **Arbitrage**: Wait and see. - **Options**: Wait and see [41].

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Short - term absolute prices of benzene and styrene will mainly fluctuate. High supply remains the core issue. Attention should be paid to the implementation of new pure benzene plants from June to July [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pure Benzene - Weak reality: Domestic production has recovered rapidly, ports maintain high inventories, and continue to squeeze BZN. Pure benzene imports exceed expectations, and there are also many exports of EB downstream products [5][16]. - Hydro - benzene supply is limited [18]. - The profits of pure benzene downstream products show different trends, with various production margins of products such as caprolactam, phenol, and aniline changing over time [27]. Styrene - Current situation: Neutral inventory, high profits, and neutral production. High profits are gradually stimulating high supply, small - scale plants are gradually restarting, and port inventories are accelerating accumulation. It is expected that port inventories will reach over 100,000 tons by the end of June, and the short - term trend is mainly weak and fluctuating [3][46]. Aromatics - Global price difference: The price difference in logistics between the US and Asia cannot be opened, so pure benzene stays in Asia [50]. - Internal price difference: The internal price difference of aromatics has returned [57]. Second - quarter Contradiction - There is a contradiction between the destocking of chemical products in the second quarter and the weakness of upstream oil products [59]. Downstream Products - ABS: Due to an increase in inventory samples, the inventory has risen significantly. Capacity utilization, production margins, and production have different performance trends [61]. - PS: Factory inventory structure has improved rapidly, capacity utilization has changed, and production margins and prices have also shown corresponding trends [3]. - EPS: Factories have received few 618 orders, which has reduced their willingness to start production during the Dragon Boat Festival. Production, inventory, and production margins also have their own characteristics [3].