港口基差

Search documents
苯乙烯日报:港口基差坚挺-20250619
Hua Tai Qi Huo· 2025-06-19 05:08
Report Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [3] Core Viewpoints - The main driver of major aromatic hydrocarbon varieties lies in the upstream crude oil. Attention should be paid to the geopolitical conflicts and subsequent oil price fluctuations, which will impact the costs of pure benzene and styrene. The domestic production rate of pure benzene has reached a high level, while the downstream CPL production rate has further declined, dragging down the demand for pure benzene. The US-South Korea window for pure benzene remains closed, and there is still significant pressure for shipments to China. The port inventory of pure benzene has continued to rise, and the processing fee for pure benzene is weak. For styrene itself, the arrival rhythm has slowed down, leading to a slight decrease in port inventory. Although the absolute amount of port inventory is still low, the port basis is firm. In the medium to long term, with the gradual increase in styrene production, there is an expectation of factory inventory accumulation. Downstream, the inventory of PS and ABS still faces pressure, and the production rate is also mediocre [2] Summary by Directory EB& Pure Benzene Basis Structure and Related Spreads - The report presents multiple figures related to EB and pure benzene basis structure and spreads, including EB main contract trends and basis, EB main contract basis, styrene consecutive one - consecutive three contract spreads, styrene non - integrated device production profit, styrene spot import profit, East China pure benzene spot - M2 paper cargo spread, pure benzene CFR China - naphtha spread, pure benzene FOB US Gulf - pure benzene FOB South Korea, and China pure benzene spot import profit [6][9][10] EB& Pure Benzene Production and Inventory - Figures show the East China port inventory of pure benzene, the production rate of pure benzene, the East China port inventory of styrene, the production rate of styrene, the East China commercial inventory of styrene, and the factory inventory of styrene [25][27][30] Downstream Production Rate and Production Profit - The report includes figures on the production rate and production profit of downstream products such as EPS, PS, and ABS [42][44][45] Pure Benzene Downstream Production Profit - Figures display the production profit of various pure benzene downstream products, including caprolactam, phenol - acetone, aniline, adipic acid, PA6 regular spinning bright, nylon filament, bisphenol A, PC, epoxy resin E - 51, pure MDI, and polymer MDI [47][52][54]
纯苯苯乙烯周报-20250525
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo· 2025-05-25 10:48
1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the trade - war relaxation, there was a positive feedback in the off - season from terminal trader restocking, supporting the styrene absolute price to fill the gap, but new orders have not been finalized yet [3]. - The upstream liquid hidden inventory in the industrial chain is gradually being depleted and transferred to downstream solid plastic particles. Attention should be paid to actual orders and the speed of downstream hidden inventory depletion [3]. - High styrene profits are gradually stimulating high supply. If the supply returns rapidly, it will turn the de - stocking balance sheet into a stock - building one in June [3]. - The port basis has strengthened rapidly. Attention should be paid to the paper - cargo delivery situation in the first half of next week [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene - The pure benzene spot with neutral valuation, neutral inventory, and medium - high supply still needs time to stabilize [5]. - Pure benzene imports have exceeded expectations, and there are also many exports of EB downstream products [15]. - The supply of hydrogenated benzene is limited [21]. 3.2 Pure Benzene Downstream - Different downstream products of pure benzene, such as caprolactam, adipic acid, phenol, aniline, etc., have different profit, production, and inventory situations. For example, caprolactam has certain production profit and output fluctuations, and adipic acid has its own production and capacity utilization trends [40][44][48]. 3.3 Styrene - Styrene currently has a pattern of neutral inventory, high profit, and medium output [52]. - The global spread of aromatics shows that the US - Asia logistics spread cannot be opened, and pure benzene remains in Asia [58]. - The internal spread of aromatics has returned [65]. 3.4 Second - Quarter Contradiction - There is a contradiction between the de - stocking of chemical products in the second quarter and the weakness of upstream oil products [67]. 3.5 ABS - ABS has its own inventory, capacity utilization, output, and profit situations. For example, the production enterprise's equity inventory, capacity utilization, and production profit in the East China region have shown different trends over time [69][71][76]. 3.6 PS - PS has factory inventory, capacity utilization, output, and profit characteristics. For example, the factory inventory and production profit have changed in different periods [77][84]. 3.7 EPS - EPS has factory inventory, output, profit, and price characteristics. For example, the factory inventory, production profit, and ordinary - grade material ex - factory price have shown different trends [85][86][87].