苯乙烯日报 | 2025-06-19 市场分析 目前主要芳烃系品种主要驱动在最上游的原油端，关注地缘冲突进展及油价后续波动，对纯苯及苯乙烯成本的影 响。而纯苯方面，国产开工率已上升至高位，下游CPL开工进一步下降，拖累纯苯需求，纯苯美韩窗口仍关闭，后 续发往中国压力仍大，纯苯港口库存再度延续上升，纯苯加工费偏弱。苯乙烯自身，到港节奏放缓，港口库存小 幅下降，港口库存绝对量仍偏低，港口基差坚挺，但中长期则在苯乙烯开工逐步回升的背景下，工厂库存有累积 预期。下游方面，PS及ABS库存同期仍有压力，开工亦表现一般。 策略 港口基差坚挺 苯乙烯观点 市场要闻与重要数据 纯苯方面：纯苯港口库存15.30万吨（+0.40万吨）；纯苯CFR中国加工费149美元/吨（-8美元/吨），纯苯FOB韩国加 工费132美元/吨（-7美元/吨），纯苯美韩价差49.7美元/吨（+5.0美元/吨）。华东纯苯现货-M2价差-50元/吨（+80元/ 吨）。 苯乙烯方面：苯乙烯主力基差317元/吨（-129元/吨）；苯乙烯非一体化生产利润229元/吨（+100元/吨），预期逐步 压缩。苯乙烯华东港口库存66300吨（-13700吨），苯乙烯华东 ...

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - After the trade - war relaxation, there was a positive feedback in the off - season from terminal trader restocking, supporting the styrene absolute price to fill the gap, but new orders have not been finalized yet [3]. - The upstream liquid hidden inventory in the industrial chain is gradually being depleted and transferred to downstream solid plastic particles. Attention should be paid to actual orders and the speed of downstream hidden inventory depletion [3]. - High styrene profits are gradually stimulating high supply. If the supply returns rapidly, it will turn the de - stocking balance sheet into a stock - building one in June [3]. - The port basis has strengthened rapidly. Attention should be paid to the paper - cargo delivery situation in the first half of next week [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Pure Benzene - The pure benzene spot with neutral valuation, neutral inventory, and medium - high supply still needs time to stabilize [5]. - Pure benzene imports have exceeded expectations, and there are also many exports of EB downstream products [15]. - The supply of hydrogenated benzene is limited [21]. 3.2 Pure Benzene Downstream - Different downstream products of pure benzene, such as caprolactam, adipic acid, phenol, aniline, etc., have different profit, production, and inventory situations. For example, caprolactam has certain production profit and output fluctuations, and adipic acid has its own production and capacity utilization trends [40][44][48]. 3.3 Styrene - Styrene currently has a pattern of neutral inventory, high profit, and medium output [52]. - The global spread of aromatics shows that the US - Asia logistics spread cannot be opened, and pure benzene remains in Asia [58]. - The internal spread of aromatics has returned [65]. 3.4 Second - Quarter Contradiction - There is a contradiction between the de - stocking of chemical products in the second quarter and the weakness of upstream oil products [67]. 3.5 ABS - ABS has its own inventory, capacity utilization, output, and profit situations. For example, the production enterprise's equity inventory, capacity utilization, and production profit in the East China region have shown different trends over time [69][71][76]. 3.6 PS - PS has factory inventory, capacity utilization, output, and profit characteristics. For example, the factory inventory and production profit have changed in different periods [77][84]. 3.7 EPS - EPS has factory inventory, output, profit, and price characteristics. For example, the factory inventory, production profit, and ordinary - grade material ex - factory price have shown different trends [85][86][87].