Model Framework - A random forest model was constructed to analyze the log change rate of the USD/CNY exchange rate based on monthly data since 2010[1] - The model's predictive ability was tested using out-of-sample backtesting methods, showing that it struggled to outperform a random walk benchmark[2] - The model captures low amplitude characteristics in the prediction sequence, indicating that macro variables primarily constrain the exchange rate's central tendency rather than accurately depicting short-term fluctuations[3] Predictive Insights - A conditional 12-month forecast suggests a moderate appreciation of the RMB, with the predicted central tendency around 6.9[5] - The RMB exchange rate is expected to evolve within an orderly range, reflecting chaotic evolution characteristics, with a lack of predictability in specific path trajectories[14] - The model indicates that macroeconomic variables impose long-term constraints on the exchange rate but do not effectively explain short-term volatility driven by risk preference shifts or external shocks[4] Economic Implications - The findings provide a robust analytical basis for understanding exchange rate mechanisms, guiding market expectations, and managing macro policy rhythms[15] - The RMB's short-term volatility remains largely unpredictable, suggesting that immediate market disturbances do not necessitate reactive policy adjustments[15] - The analysis emphasizes the importance of recognizing the inherent unpredictability of short-term exchange rate movements while maintaining a stable central tendency under macro constraints[5]

Group 1: Macroeconomic Environment - The global economic system is entering a chaotic evolution phase characterized by non-linearity, bidirectionality, and high sensitivity due to intensified great power competition[1] - The global growth baseline remains resilient, supported by the acceleration of the Fourth Industrial Revolution and industrial transformation[1] - Global trade elasticity has been declining, with trade expansion significantly lagging behind GDP growth since the 2008 financial crisis, dropping below 1[3] Group 2: Security and Uncertainty - National security considerations are increasingly influencing resource allocation, with global military spending projected to reach $2.72 trillion in 2024, a 9.4% year-on-year increase, marking the highest level since the Cold War[3] - The World Uncertainty Index has risen significantly since 2018, indicating that global uncertainty has evolved from temporary fluctuations to a structural norm[4] Group 3: Asset Performance and Investment Strategy - In a critical chaos phase, both risk assets and safe-haven assets can yield positive returns, reflecting a dual pricing structure[7] - Despite rising macro uncertainty, risk assets still have a strong return potential, as evidenced by the MSCI Global Index achieving returns significantly above global GDP growth rates of around 3% from 2020 to 2025[7] - Safe-haven assets like gold continue to hold value, driven by multiple risk factors, indicating that hedging demand will persist in chaotic environments[8] - The asset allocation logic has shifted from a zero-sum game to a scenario where both risk and safe-haven assets can thrive simultaneously, necessitating a dynamic adjustment to investment strategies[11]