1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - The Fed's next - stage core challenge is to balance the demands of different stakeholders and formulate monetary policies that align with economic fundamentals and market expectations while maintaining central bank independence. Over - betting on loose policies currently may pose potential risks. The market may continue to focus on interest - rate cut trading for the US dollar index, but the room for further development is limited, and it may shift from trading on strong expectations to trading on reality. The rebound space of the US dollar index may be limited without a significant improvement in the US labor market. The USD/CNY spot exchange rate has formed a "three - price unity" pattern around 7.10, and it may fluctuate around this level in the short term. There is no clear sign of a trend appreciation of the RMB for now [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 One - Week Market Review and Outlook 3.1.1 Foreign Exchange Market Review - Last week, the overall trend of the international foreign exchange market was mainly affected by the monetary policy adjustment directions of major global central banks. The key logic was centered on the expected differences in monetary policies and the repricing of interest - rate paths. By September 19th, 16:30, the US dollar index slightly appreciated compared to the previous Friday. The on - shore RMB, offshore RMB, Japanese yen, and euro all appreciated against the US dollar, while the British pound depreciated against the US dollar [3]. - The Fed cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points in September, with the rate range dropping to 4.75% - 5.00%. Fed Chairman Powell defined this as a "risk - management interest - rate cut" to prevent deterioration in the employment market. The dot - plot indicated two more rate cuts were likely this year [3]. - The Bank of Japan maintained its policy rate but had internal differences, with two of nine members advocating for a rate hike. It also announced an ETF reduction plan, signaling a move towards policy normalization [3]. - The Bank of Canada cut the benchmark interest rate by 25 basis points to 2.5% for the first time since March due to slow economic growth and reduced inflation risks, without providing clear forward - looking guidance [3]. - The Bank of England kept the benchmark interest rate at 4% and adjusted its quantitative tightening plan, reducing the scale from £100 billion to £70 billion in the next 12 months and cutting long - term bond sales to minimize the impact on the bond market [3]. 3.1.2 Weekly Review of USD/CNY Spot Exchange Rate - **Market Trading Logic** - **US dollar index trading logic**: At the beginning of the week, the market's high - consensus expectation of a Fed rate cut in September drove the US dollar index into a downward channel. After the official rate cut, Powell's "cautiously dovish" statement and the decline in US initial jobless claims led to a V - shaped rebound of the US dollar index [11]. - **USD/CNY spot exchange rate trading logic**: It moved in tandem with the US dollar index. It adjusted moderately when the US dollar index declined and strengthened when it rebounded. The "three - price unity" expectation also influenced market sentiment, with no one - sided speculation [11]. - **Weekly Market Review** - **Before the FOMC meeting**: The market's strong expectation of a Fed rate cut led to a downward movement of the US dollar index and a moderate adjustment of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate. The exchange rate converged towards the "three - price unity" target, and there was no obvious one - sided speculation [12]. - **After the FOMC meeting**: Powell's statement and the decline in initial jobless claims led to a rebound of the US dollar index. The USD/CNY spot exchange rate achieved "three - price unity" and entered an upward channel [12]. 3.1.3 Market Outlook - The Fed cut the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% on September 18th. The core issues for the market now are the Fed's future interest - rate cut rhythm and amplitude, which depend on the actual severity of the weakening US labor market, the speed of interest - rate adjustment to the neutral level, and the reasonable anchoring of the "neutral interest rate" [17][19]. - It is expected that the conditions for the Fed to implement large - scale consecutive interest - rate cuts this year are not yet mature. Such a policy is more likely to be implemented in 2026, which may face challenges. Economic factors such as the slowdown (but not a stall) in the US employment market and inflation pressure, as well as the cooling real - estate market, limit the scope for large - scale easing. Politically, although there is uncertainty, the "gradual adjustment" policy line is difficult to change in the short term [19]. 3.1.4 Strategy Recommendations - For enterprises with import and foreign - exchange purchase needs, it is advisable to use forward contracts to lock in exchange - rate costs. Export - oriented enterprises can conduct spot foreign - exchange settlement at the upper end of the exchange - rate range and carry out hedging operations for forward foreign - exchange settlement. Currently, the spread between spot and forward exchange rates is narrowing, reducing the profit - making space. Cross - market volatility arbitrage and short - straddle option combinations have better risk - return characteristics. For low - risk - preference participants, iron - condor option combinations or covered - call strategies can be preferred [27]. 3.1.5 Weekly Risk Warnings and Key Events - China will hold a press conference on the "14th Five - Year Plan" achievements in the financial industry, with PBOC Governor Pan Gongsheng attending. The US will release the September Markit manufacturing PMI preliminary value, August PCE data. Attention should also be paid to the speeches of overseas central - bank officials [28]. 3.2 RMB Market Observation 3.2.1 Policy Tool Tracking - Counter - Cyclical Factor - As of last Friday, the central parity rate of the USD/CNY was 7.1128, up 109 basis points from the previous Friday. The current trend of the counter - cyclical factor indicates that the central bank's attitude towards the exchange rate is generally neutral [30]. 3.2.2 Investor Expectations and Sentiment Tracking - **Enterprise Sector Expectations**: In August, China's foreign - exchange market was stable, with active trading and a general balance between supply and demand. The cross - border receipts and payments of non - bank sectors increased by 8% year - on - year, and the cross - border capital inflow was $3.2 billion, with a bank settlement - sale surplus of $14.6 billion [35]. - **Overseas Investor Expectations**: As of last Friday, the narrowing spread between offshore and on - shore RMB indicated a slight decline in overseas investors' appreciation sentiment towards the RMB [40]. - **Professional Investor Expectations**: As of last Friday, the one - year NDF closing price of USD/CNH slightly decreased. The USDCNY risk - reversal option indicators (25Delta) showed little change in market sentiment [43]. 3.2.3 Derivatives Market Tracking - **Hong Kong RMB Futures Market**: Relevant charts show the price trends and basis differences of the HKEX USDCNH futures contracts [46][48]. - **Singapore RMB Futures Market**: Charts present the price trends and basis differences of the SGX USDCNH futures contracts, as well as the basis comparison between SGX and HKEX contracts [50][52]. 3.3 Key Data and Events to Watch 3.3.1 One - Week Global Key Events Review - **China**: High - level Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Madrid. China's economic data in August showed growth in industrial added value, service production, and consumer spending. Policy measures were introduced to expand service consumption, and relevant economic data and policy statements were released [57]. - **US**: The September New York Fed manufacturing index dropped sharply. The Fed cut interest rates as expected, and the new - home construction and initial jobless claims data were released [59]. - **UK**: The UK CPI remained high in August. The Bank of England kept the interest rate unchanged and adjusted the quantitative tightening plan. The UK budget deficit reached a five - year high [61]. - **Eurozone**: The EU proposed a new round of sanctions against Russia [62]. - **Japan**: Japan's exports and imports declined in August. The Bank of Japan maintained the benchmark interest rate and announced an ETF and REIT reduction plan [63]. 3.3.2 One - Week Global Central - Bank Key Speeches - Speeches from central - bank officials in various countries covered topics such as the TikTok issue, Sino - US relations, and exchange - rate policies [63][65]. 3.3.3 This Week's Key Financial and Economic Data and Events - Key data to be released this week include China's central - bank loan prime rate, US economic data such as GDP deflator, PCE price index, and initial jobless claims, as well as speeches by central - bank officials from different countries [68][69]. 3.4 International Market Conditions 3.4.1 Major Countries' Exchange - Rate Quotes - Charts show the exchange - rate trends of the US dollar against major currencies such as the euro, yen, pound, and others [71][73]. 3.4.2 Correlation of Major Asset Classes - Charts display the trends of major assets including London gold, VIX, crude oil prices, stock - market indices such as S&P 500 and CSI 300, and the price differences of gold [93][100]. 3.4.3 Capital Flows - Charts present the central - bank's open - market operations, Shibor quotes, and SOFR quotes [105][107]. 3.4.4 Sino - US Interest - Rate Spread - Charts show the trends of the Sino - US interest - rate spread, 10 - year US Treasury yields, and 10 - year Chinese Treasury yields [109][110]. 3.4.5 RMB Exchange - Rate Index - The chart shows the trends of three major RMB exchange - rate indices [112]. 3.4.6 Global Economic and Trade Friction Tracking - In June 2025, the global economic and trade friction index was at a medium - high level but showed a significant easing trend. The US's tariff policies and trade - negotiation progress will mainly determine future developments. The index is high for countries like India, the US, and Brazil, and in industries such as electronics. The 19 - country (region) index for China - related economic and trade frictions is also high, but the amount involved has decreased [113][115].

Group 1 - The Australian dollar to US dollar exchange rate has surpassed 1 AUD to 0.6648 USD, reflecting an increase of 0.5293% [2] - The current exchange rate translates to 100 RMB being equivalent to 21.1300 AUD, or conversely, 100 AUD being equal to 473.4848 RMB [2] - The current exchange rate represents a three-month low and a ten-month high, while the current increase marks a three-month low and a four-month high [3] Group 2 - As of the latest data, the Bank of China quotes the USD buying price at 710.7500 for both current and cash transactions, with the selling price at 713.7400 [2] - The exchange rates provided indicate significant fluctuations in the foreign exchange market, impacting trading strategies and investment decisions [2][3]

Group 1 - The euro to US dollar exchange rate has surpassed 1.1696, marking a rise of 0.5070% [2] - The current exchange rate represents a three-month low and a 47-month high [3] - The conversion rate indicates that 100 Chinese yuan equals 11.9890 euros, or 100 euros equals 833.9900 yuan [2] Group 2 - The current buying and selling rates for the US dollar at the Bank of China are 711.9400 for both cash and spot buying, and 714.9400 for both cash and spot selling [2]

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no industry investment rating provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - The report continues the previous analytical framework of "USD - mid - price - spot price" to judge the direction and rhythm of the USD/CNY exchange rate. With the "steep cooling" of the non - farm payrolls data, the spot exchange rate of USD/CNY will have increased volatility and a slowdown in appreciation expectations. Whether the 7.20 level is "effectively broken" depends on the policy signals from the mid - price. Currently, the mid - price of USD/CNY shows a clear "stabilizing" orientation. In the context of sufficient policy tools and reduced external pressure, the RMB has no one - way depreciation risk against the USD in the short term, with a short - term trading range of 7.15 - 7.23 and a central level around 7.20 [1][14]. - The report is cautious about the view that the US economy can withstand the impact of tariffs. The seemingly strong US economic data are just short - term fluctuations, and problems such as slow domestic demand growth, persistent inflation pressure, and weak investment activities remain unsolved. The July non - farm payrolls report indicates that the cooling of the US labor market has exceeded expectations, and the reliability and transparency of official employment data are declining [10]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Foreign Exchange Market Review - As of 16:30 on August 1, the US Dollar Index continued to appreciate compared to the previous Friday. The on - shore RMB, off - shore RMB, Japanese Yen, Euro, and British Pound all remained under pressure against the US Dollar [3]. - Market quotes for various exchange rates are provided, including the USD/CNY mid - price, spot rates, and cross - exchange rates. For example, the USD/CNY mid - price increased by 0.108%, the USD/CNY spot rate rose by 0.596%, and the USD/CNH spot rate increased by 0.736% [4]. 3.2 USD/CNY Spot Exchange Rate Weekly Review - Last week, the US Dollar Index continued to rebound, supported by the market's selling pressure on the Euro due to the agreement between the US and Europe and overall positive economic data. The USD/CNY spot exchange rate also rose steadily. However, the weak non - farm payrolls data on Friday caused a significant drop in the US Dollar Index [9]. 3.3 Market Outlook - The report is skeptical about the view that the US economy can resist tariff impacts. The seemingly good economic data are short - term fluctuations, and underlying problems in the US economy persist. The July non - farm payrolls report is a key evidence. It shows that the cooling of the US labor market has exceeded expectations, and the reliability of official employment data is decreasing [10][12][13]. - The report continues the previous analytical framework. With the poor non - farm payrolls data, the volatility of the USD/CNY spot exchange rate will increase, and the appreciation expectation will slow down. The 7.20 level's "effective breakthrough" depends on the mid - price policy signals. In the short term, the RMB has no one - way depreciation risk against the USD, with a trading range of 7.15 - 7.23 and a central level around 7.20 [14]. 3.4 RMB Market Observation 3.4.1 Policy Tools Tracking - Counter - Cyclical Factor - As of last Friday, the mid - price of the USD/CNY exchange rate was reported at 7.1496, depreciating 77 basis points from the previous Friday [16]. 3.4.2 Investor Expectations and Sentiment Tracking - **Enterprise Sector Expectations**: In June 2025, banks settled 14900 billion RMB and sold 13083 billion RMB. From January to June 2025, cumulative settlements were 82135 billion RMB, and cumulative sales were 83950 billion RMB. In US dollars, June settlements were 2077 billion, and sales were 1823 billion. From January to June, cumulative settlements were 11432 billion, and cumulative sales were 11685 billion. Bank - customer foreign - related income and payments data are also provided [18]. - **Overseas Investor Expectations**: As of last Friday, the spread between the off - shore and on - shore RMB indicated a slight increase in overseas investors' depreciation sentiment towards the RMB against the USD [24]. - **Professional Investor Expectations**: As of last Friday, the 1 - year NDF closing price of USD/CNH was 7.0269, up from the previous Friday. Most risk - reversal option indicators (25Delta) showed a slight increase in the market's depreciation sentiment towards the RMB [26]. 3.4.3 Derivatives Market Tracking - **Hong Kong RMB Futures Market**: Charts of the Hong Kong Exchange's USD/CNH futures main - contract transaction price and related basis are provided [30][31]. - **Singapore RMB Futures Market**: Charts of the Singapore Exchange's USD/CNH futures main - contract transaction price and related basis are provided [33][35]. 3.5 Key Data and Events 3.5.1 One - Week Global Key Events Review - **China**: Sino - US economic and trade teams held talks in Stockholm. The national childcare subsidy system was announced, with a subsidy of 3600 yuan per child per year. In June 2025, China had a trade surplus of 701 billion US dollars in goods and services. In 2024, the "Three New" economic added value was 24.29 trillion yuan, growing by 6.7%. The July manufacturing PMI was 49.3% [39][40]. - **US**: The US Treasury increased the borrowing estimate to 1 trillion US dollars this quarter. The June goods trade deficit narrowed by 10.8%. The second - quarter GDP grew by 3% annually. The July non - farm payrolls increased by only 73,000, with significant downward revisions to previous months' data. The US will resume "reciprocal tariffs" [41][42]. - **UK**: No key events were reported. - **Eurozone**: Although the general framework of the EU - US trade agreement was determined, details remained to be negotiated. The second - quarter GDP grew by 0.1% quarter - on - quarter and 1.4% year - on - year. Germany and Italy's economies contracted in the second quarter [43]. - **Japan**: No key events were reported. - **Other**: Australia's second - quarter CPI rose by 2.1% year - on - year. The Bank of Canada kept the interest rate at 2.75% [44][45]. 3.5.2 One - Week Global Central Bank Statements - **People's Bank of China**: Sino - US economic and trade talks were held in Stockholm, and the suspension of part of the US reciprocal tariffs and China's counter - measures will be extended for 90 days. The Politburo emphasized maintaining policy continuity and implementing proactive fiscal and moderately loose monetary policies. The State Administration of Foreign Exchange will strengthen foreign exchange monitoring and management [45][46]. - **Federal Reserve**: The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged. Trump made a series of tariff - related announcements. Fed理事Kugler will leave office early. New York Fed President Williams expects the US economic growth to slow to about 1% this year [48][50]. - **Bank of Japan**: The Bank of Japan kept the interest rate at 0.5% and raised the 2025 core CPI forecast [51]. - **European Central Bank**: ECB hawkish official Kazimir said the ECB is not in a hurry to cut borrowing costs [52]. - **Bank of England**: No statements were reported. - **Other**: The Bank of Korea's meeting minutes showed that most members considered further interest - rate cuts, and the bank kept the benchmark interest rate at 2.50% [54]. 3.5.3 This Week's Key Financial and Economic Data and Events - A list of key data and events for this week is provided, including US Treasury bill auction rates, Eurozone PPI, US trade data, and China's CPI and PPI [55]. 3.6 International Related Quotes 3.6.1 Major Countries' Exchange Rate Quotes - Charts of exchange rates such as the US Dollar Index, Euro/USD, USD/KRW, and others are provided [58][60]. 3.6.2 Correlation of Major Asset Classes - Charts of assets including the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX), Brent crude oil, London gold, and others are provided [80][81][83]. 3.6.3 Liquidity - Charts of central bank open - market operations, Shibor quotes, and SOFR quotes are provided [90][91][92]. 3.6.4 Sino - US Interest Rate Spread - Charts of Sino - US interest rate spreads at different tenors, 10 - year US Treasury yields, and 10 - year Chinese Treasury yields are provided [94][95]. 3.6.5 RMB Exchange Rate Index - A chart of the three major RMB exchange rate indices is provided [97].