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银河期货棉花、棉纱日报-20250828
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-08-28 15:23
Group 1: Market Information - The closing prices of CF01, CF05, and CF09 contracts were 14070, 14025, and 13690 respectively, with changes of -5, -5, and -70. The closing prices of CY01, CY05, and CY09 contracts were 20090, 20350, and 20240 respectively, with changes of -5, 0, and 35 [3]. - The CCIndex3128B price was 15336 yuan/ton, up 2; Cot A was 78.20 cents/pound, down 0.70; (FC Index):M: to - port price was 75.95, down 0.62; polyester staple fiber was 7450, up 70; viscose staple fiber was 12900, unchanged [3]. - The CY IndexC32S price was 20760, unchanged; FCY IndexC33S was 21865, down 32; Indian S - 6 was 55800, unchanged; pure polyester yarn T32S was 11030, unchanged; viscose yarn R30S was 17250, unchanged [3]. - The 1 - month to 5 - month cotton spread was 45, unchanged; 5 - month to 9 - month was 335, up 65; 9 - month to 1 - month was - 380, down 65. The 1 - month to 5 - month棉纱 spread was - 260, down 20355; 5 - month to 9 - month was 110, up 20315; 9 - month to 1 - month was 150, up 40 [3]. - The CY01 - CF01 spread was 6020, unchanged; CY05 - CF05 was 6325, up 20355; CY09 - CF09 was 6550, up 105. The 1% tariff internal - external cotton spread was 1439, down 6; the sliding - scale internal - external cotton spread was 788, down 6; the internal - external yarn spread was - 1105, up 32 [3]. Group 2: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - From August 21 to 27, 2025, the weekly rainfall in India's cotton - growing areas (93.6%) was 64.6mm, 18.1mm higher than normal and 66.7mm lower than last year. The cumulative rainfall from June 1 to August 27 was 705.6mm, 78.8mm higher than normal. The cotton growth was good, but there were reports of bollworm disasters in Andhra Pradesh [6]. - As of the week ending August 23, Brazil's (98%) cotton harvest progress was 60.3%, a 11.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous week but 15.8% slower than last year, mainly due to delayed planting in Mato Grosso [6]. - India temporarily waived cotton import tariffs from August 19 to September 30, 2025, and extended the exemption to December 31, 2025 [6]. - In 2025, the total quota for cotton import under the sliding - scale tariff for processing trade was 200,000 tons, issued on a contract - based application [7]. Trading Logic - After the Sino - US talks, tariffs are likely to be extended for 90 days, reducing short - term tariff impacts. China's anti - involution policies have a positive impact on commodities. The cotton supply is tight, and the issuance of sliding - scale tariffs will be a key factor. Demand is expected to improve from August as it shifts from the off - season to the peak season. If demand is lower than expected, it will be negative for Zhengzhou cotton. In the short term, the market is likely to be slightly bullish [8]. Trading Strategy - Unilateral: US cotton is likely to be slightly bullish, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly bullish in the short term but with limited upside [9]. - Arbitrage: Wait and see [9]. - Options: Wait and see [10]. Cotton Yarn Industry News - The price of pure - cotton greige fabric was stable, with limited real - order transactions and a lukewarm market. Weaving mills' shipments improved slightly, and they were not fully optimistic about the September peak season [12]. - The trading volume of pure - cotton yarn decreased compared to the previous period, but overall transactions were okay. Spinning mills sold at market prices. Some spinning mills resumed production, increasing the operating rate. There are concerns about large - scale spinning mills' low - price promotions in early September, and yarn prices are expected to be stable in the short term [12]. Group 3: Options - On August 28, 2025, for the CF601C14000.CZC option, the closing price was 356.00, down 4.6%, with an implied volatility (IV) of 10.8%. For the CF601P13600.CZC option, the closing price was 122.00, up 15.1%, with an IV of 10.2%. For the CF601P13400.CZC option, the closing price was 82.00, up 30.2%, with an IV of 10.6% [13]. - The PCR of the main Zhengzhou cotton contract's open interest was 0.7774, and the PCR of the trading volume was 0.5211. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased [14]. - Options strategy: Wait and see [15].
银河期货棉花、棉纱日报-20250827
Yin He Qi Huo· 2025-08-27 15:10
Group 1: Report Overview - Report Title: Cotton and Cotton Yarn Daily Report [2] - Date: August 27, 2024 [2] - Researcher: Liu Qiannan [2] Group 2: Market Information Futures Market - CF01 contract closed at 14075, down 25; trading volume was 192,722 hands, an increase of 39913; open interest was 508,803, an increase of 739 [3] - CF05 contract closed at 14030, down 25; trading volume was 7,362 hands, an increase of 247; open interest was 55,039, an increase of 188 [3] - CF09 contract closed at 13760, down 20; trading volume was 20,444 hands, a decrease of 2381; open interest was 44,086, a decrease of 12520 [3] - CY01 contract closed at 20095, down 65; trading volume was 81 hands, an increase of 32; open interest was 377, a decrease of 3 [3] - CY05 contract closed at 20395, unchanged; trading volume was 1 hand, unchanged; open interest was 6, unchanged [3] - CY09 contract closed at 20205, up 125; trading volume was 33 hands, unchanged; open interest was 517, a decrease of 9 [3] Spot Market - CCIndex3128B was 15342 yuan/ton, up 107; CY IndexC32S was 20760 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Cot A was 78.90 cents/pound, unchanged; FCY IndexC33S was 21880 yuan/ton, down 11 [3] - (FC Index):M: arrival price was 76.57 cents/pound, down 0.68; Indian S - 6 was 54000 rupees/candy, unchanged [3] - Polyester staple fiber was 7450 yuan/ton, up 70; pure polyester yarn T32S was 11030 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] - Viscose staple fiber was 12900 yuan/ton, unchanged; viscose yarn R30S was 17250 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] Spreads - Cotton inter - period spreads: 1 - 5 spread was 45, unchanged; 5 - 9 spread was 270, down 5; 9 - 1 spread was - 315, up 5 [3] - Cotton yarn inter - period spreads: 1 - 5 spread was - 300, down 65; 5 - 9 spread was 190, down 125; 9 - 1 spread was 110, up 190 [3] - Cross - variety spreads: CY01 - CF01 was 6020, down 40; CY05 - CF05 was 6365, up 25; CY09 - CF09 was 6445, up 145 [3] - Domestic - foreign spreads: 1% tariff domestic - foreign cotton spread was 1445, up 8; sliding - scale domestic - foreign cotton spread was 794, up 8; domestic - foreign yarn spread was - 1120, up 11 [3] Group 3: Market News and Views Cotton Market News - In the US cotton main production area (92.9% output share), the average temperature was 83.51°F, 1.82°F lower than the same period last year; the average rainfall was 0.82 inches, 0.06 inches higher. In Texas, the average temperature was 84.78°F, 4.22°F lower, and the average rainfall was 0.51 inches, 0.46 inches higher. The growth progress is lagging, but the good - quality rate is high [6] - As of the week ending August 23, the total cotton harvesting progress in Brazil (98%) was 60.3%, a 11.4 - percentage - point increase from the previous week, 15.8% slower than the same period last year, mainly due to the lag in Mato Grosso [6] - As of August 23, 2025, the cotton planting area in India for the 2025/26 season was 10.787 million hectares, 352,000 hectares lower than the same period last year, a 3.2% year - on - year decline. The planting area growth is slowing [7] - The total volume of the 2025 cotton import sliding - scale tariff processing trade quota is 200,000 tons, issued on a contract - based application basis [7] Trading Logic - Macroscopically, after the recent China - US talks, tariffs are likely to be extended by 90 days, and China's anti - involution policies have a positive impact on commodities. Fundamentally, the cotton supply is still tight, and whether additional sliding - scale tariffs will be issued is the key supply - side factor. Demand is expected to improve from the off - season to the peak season in August. Overall, the short - term market is likely to be slightly stronger and volatile [8] Trading Strategies - Unilateral: US cotton is likely to be slightly stronger and volatile, and Zhengzhou cotton is expected to be slightly stronger and volatile in the short term with limited upward space [11] - Arbitrage: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [12] - Options: Hold a wait - and - see attitude [13] Cotton Yarn Industry News - This week, Zhengzhou cotton strengthened again. The cotton yarn market had fair transactions, and spinning mills reduced inventory by selling at market prices, but there was resistance to price increases. The yarn price is expected to be stable in the short term [13] - The cotton grey fabric market price was slightly weak, and the overall trading atmosphere was still weak. Weaving mills mainly digested inventory, and there were no conditions for price increases [13] Group 4: Options - Volatility: Today, the 120 - day HV of cotton was 10.0918, slightly lower than the previous day. The implied volatility of CF601C14000 was 10.8%, CF601P13600 was 10%, and CF601P13400 was 10.3% [15] - Option Strategy Suggestion: Today, the PCR of the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton was 0.7638, and the volume PCR was 0.6056. The trading volumes of both call and put options increased. The option strategy is to wait and see [16][17] Group 5: Related Attachments - The report includes figures such as the domestic - foreign cotton price spread under 1% tariff, cotton basis for January, May, and September, CY - CF spreads, and cotton inter - period spreads [20][23][28][29]