格隆汇1月15日｜GSFM投资专家斯蒂芬·米勒表示，澳洲联储有理由在2月份加息。他指出，消费支出明 显强劲反弹，劳动力市场状况也相对稳健，这使得加息的可能性更大。如果此时不加息，澳洲联储未来 可能不得不采取更为激进的措施。他还提到，生产率增长乏力和单位劳动力成本大幅上升，进一步加剧 了联储面临的困境。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，交易员们纷纷预测澳洲联储将于明年初迅速提高利率，澳元因此攀升至一年多来的 最高水平。周三，澳元上涨0.2%，至1澳元兑67.13美分，创下2024年10月以来的最高水平。此举使其本 季度涨幅扩大至1.5%，成为表现最佳的主要发达市场货币之一。 自11月中旬以来，澳元持续走强，交易员押注货币政策将迅速转向，因为消费支出回升和强劲的工资数 据加剧了通胀压力。交易员预计，澳洲联储最早可能在6月份加息，此前该央行在12月的会议上暗示其 宽松周期已经结束。 澳大利亚联邦银行策略师Kristina Clifton等专家在12月22日的一份报告中写道，澳元兑美元汇率的涨势 可能会在年底前延续至68美分，因为澳元通常会在每年的最后两周走强。他们表示，全球经济环境的改 善以及市场预期澳洲联储将在2026年初加息，将在未来一个月支撑澳元汇率。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，澳大利亚联邦银行首席经济学家Luke Yeaman表示，如果物价压力持续居高不下且 劳动力市场进一步收紧，澳洲联储可能会在明年上调利率。曾担任澳大利亚财政部副部长的Yeaman周 二在一份研究报告中表示："我们将继续保持与经济增速相匹配的节奏，因此央行委员会将一直处于高 度警觉状态，降息事宜也将不会被提上议事日程。如果经济的发展势头超出我们的预期，那么在 2026 年可能会出现加息的情况。" 虽然目前澳洲联储再度加息的可能性仍不大，但疲弱的生产效率降低了澳大利亚的潜在经济增长率，这 意味着当经济活动增强时，通胀可能会更快出现。Yeaman表示，这意味着借贷成本将需要高于以往周 期的水平，他是少数几位认为澳洲联储宽松周期即将结束的经济学家之一。 自 2 月以来，该央行已三次下调关键利率，将其降至 3.6%——这是自 2023 年 4 月以来的最低水平。在 第三季度通胀率超过其 2%-3%目标区间上限后，该央行转而采取基于数据的政策立场。市场定价显 示，再次降息的可能性很小，而经济学家预测宽松政策将于 2026 年 5 月恢复。 Yeaman表示，如果第四季度的通胀率(将于 1 月底公布)高于 ...

Group 1: Federal Reserve Insights - The potential new Fed chair candidate, Reed, suggests that Powell's stance is more hawkish than expected, increasing the likelihood of skipping a rate cut in December, potentially delaying further easing measures into the new year [1][2] - Nomura Securities has retracted its prediction for a December rate cut after Powell's press conference indicated that a December hike is not guaranteed, with current market expectations for a rate cut by year-end at approximately 72%, down from 91% prior to the Fed's decision [1][2] - CICC estimates that the Fed still has room for three more rate cuts, but the pace of cuts may slow down, influenced by government shutdowns and economic data releases [2] Group 2: European Central Bank (ECB) Outlook - Danske Bank indicates that the ECB is likely to maintain interest rates unchanged in October, with data aligning closely with expectations, although there are growing divergences among members regarding inflation outlooks [3] - ECB President Lagarde is expected to reaffirm a data-dependent approach to decision-making, while the market may be pricing in upward risks for potential rate cuts [3] Group 3: Bank of Japan (BoJ) Policy - Mizuho Bank emphasizes that the BoJ is committed to a gradual normalization of its policy stance, with market participants adjusting their expectations for future policy changes [4] - State Street Global Advisors notes that the likelihood of a BoJ rate hike increases if global trade uncertainties are better assessed, with potential adjustments expected in the coming meetings [4] Group 4: Australian Economic Outlook - HSBC's Australian division reports that unexpected increases in core inflation have fundamentally altered the outlook for official interest rates, with expectations for a rate hike potentially occurring in early 2027 [5]