火电投资

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电力|暖冬&高基数导致需求平淡,火核电源投资加速
中信证券研究· 2025-04-09 00:19
Core Viewpoint - The electricity consumption growth in January and February 2025 was modest at 1.3%, primarily due to warm winter temperatures and a high base effect from the leap year in 2024, leading to a decline in electricity demand across various sectors [1][2]. Demand - In January and February 2025, total electricity consumption reached 155.64 billion kWh, with a year-on-year growth of 1.3%, down 1.9 percentage points from December 2024. The contributions to overall electricity growth were 7.7% from primary industry, 40.4% from secondary industry, 50.7% from tertiary industry, and 1.6% from residential use [2]. - The secondary industry's electricity consumption growth rate declined, with high-energy-consuming sectors experiencing a slowdown. High-energy regions saw a consumption growth rate drop to 2.4%, while coastal regions continued to decline [2]. Supply - As of February 2025, the installed capacity of power plants with 600,000 kW and above reached 298 million kW, a year-on-year increase of 11.7%. In January and February, new installations totaled 54,530 MW, including 39,470 MW of solar power [3]. - Power source investment amounted to 75.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 0.2%, but down 11.9 percentage points compared to the entire year of 2024. Conversely, grid investment reached 43.6 billion yuan, up 33.5% year-on-year, marking an 18.2 percentage point increase from 2024 [3]. Consumption - The average utilization hours of power generation equipment in January and February were 505 hours, down 10.3% year-on-year. Specifically, hydropower utilization was 368 hours (down 0.3%), thermal power was 691 hours (down 9.4%), nuclear power was 1,226 hours (up 0.8%), wind power was 363 hours (down 2.7%), and solar power was 166 hours (down 1.2%) [4]. - In February, the domestic wind power utilization rate was 92.9%, down 0.8 percentage points year-on-year, while the solar power utilization rate remained stable at 93.4% [4]. The decline in thermal power utilization hours is attributed to the expansion of thermal power installations in 2024 and limited electricity demand growth in 2025 [4]. Investment Opportunities - Focus on long-term assets such as hydropower and nuclear power, which benefit from declining interest rates and return expectations. Low-valuation green electricity stocks in Hong Kong present a safety margin and potential policy improvements [6]. - Selective investments in sectors with resource advantages or superior business models, such as offshore wind and integrated coal power [6]. - Opportunities arising from the integration of digitalization and new power systems, including virtual power plants, microgrids, and comprehensive energy services [6].