丨证券研究报告丨 行业研究丨专题报告丨公用事业 [Table_Title] 电力行业 2025 年三季报前瞻：火电经营持续改 善，清洁能源延续分化 报告要点 [Table_Summary] 综合火电三要素，虽然三季度电价及电量延续回落，但考虑到三季度煤价仍有显著下降，北方 电厂及部分华东、华中地区火电运营商三季度业绩仍将维持积极表现。水电方面，7-8 月主汛 期电量的明显偏弱预计将限制主要水电公司三季度的业绩表现。核电方面，虽然三季度电量预 计稳健增长，但由于不同省份受电价下降影响不同，因此两核业绩或将有所分化。绿电方面， 虽然绿电 7-8 月全国利用小时数持续回落，但是如福建、上海、广东等东部沿海省份风电利用 小时明显修复，部分区域性新能源运营商预计实现优异的业绩表现。 分析师及联系人 [Table_Author] SAC：S0490517080003 SAC：S0490520120001 SAC：S0490520110001 SAC：S0490523080003 SFC：BQT627 1 公用事业 cjzqdt11111 [Table_Title 电力行业 2025 2] 年三季报前瞻：火电经营持续改 善 ...

那我们为何要这么做呢？你可能会说中国人多、工厂多，石油又少，只能拼命建发电厂了。这确实没错，可是跟我们情况差不多的日本、韩国、印度却没这 么干，难道他们就没有石油焦虑么？ 事实上我们对于石油的焦虑程度并没有想象那么大。因为目前中国构建的石油供应体系已经非常成熟了，我们跟俄罗斯、沙特、委内瑞拉等石油大国的关系 相当紧密，几乎不存在被单一石油大国卡脖子的问题。反而从某种程度上说，中国现在在石油上已经成为全球最大的甲方，我们决定购买谁的油，反而会决 定这些石油产国的生死。世界上产油的国家可不少，可是能消耗这么多石油的国家却只有我们一个。所以在这个产业链里面，我们反而是强势的。 中国为什么要疯狂发展绿电？仅仅是因为我们没石油么？很多人可能都没意识到，目前中国为了发展绿电到底有多疯狂？从沿海城市高耸入云的风车发电， 到新疆沙漠里密密茫茫的光伏发电板，还有投资1.2万亿马上就要开工的雅江水电站，中国在绿电发力规模之大，发力速度之快，放眼世界都是独一份的。 2024 年，中国清洁能源投资达6750 亿美元，占全球 34%，连续多年稳居世界第一。其中，电网投资占全球 80%，储能投资超 500 亿美元，光伏和风电投资 占全球 ...

Core Insights - The Henan Wuyue Pumped Storage Power Station is a key energy project in the revitalization plan for the Dabie Mountain revolutionary area, approved by the State Council [1] - The project aims to enhance the stability of the Henan power grid by reducing the average peak-shaving rate of coal-fired power by 2.07 percentage points and saving 116,800 tons of coal annually [1] - Upon completion, the power station is expected to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by approximately 291,400 tons, sulfur dioxide by 8,800 tons, and nitrogen oxides by 4,400 tons each year [1] Company Operations - The maintenance team, led by experienced personnel, conducts regular inspections and preventive maintenance to ensure the stable operation of core equipment such as generators and transformers [2][3] - The team operates in shifts, providing 24/7 readiness to address any operational issues that may arise, ensuring minimal downtime for the equipment [3] - The ongoing commissioning of the first unit is part of preparations for commercial operation, with the team working extended hours to ensure readiness [2] Technical Aspects - The underground facility of the power station consists of multiple sections, including installation and main engine rooms, which are critical for the station's operations [2] - The core responsibilities of the pumped storage technicians include ensuring the safe and efficient operation of both water storage and power generation processes [3]

从国网江苏省电力有限公司获悉，今年国庆中秋长假期间江苏高速公路服务区国网充电桩，将全部提供 绿电；30个重点繁忙服务区提前部署移动充电机器人，服务新能源车。此次假期8天，预计江苏高速路 总充电量将突破800万千瓦时，同比增长3%。据预测，国庆中秋期间，江苏全省高速服务区日均服务充 电车辆将超4.5万台次，有望再创历史新高。 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the power and gas sectors, recommending specific companies for investment based on their performance and market conditions [3][16][18]. Core Insights - The report highlights that in August, the total electricity consumption reached 10,154 billion kWh, marking a year-on-year growth of 5.0%. The second industry contributed the largest increase, accounting for 59% of the total electricity increment [3][8][9]. - The report notes that global gas prices are experiencing slight fluctuations, with the Henry Hub spot price at $2.90/mmBtu and the TTF spot price at €32.15/MWh as of September 26 [18][19]. - The report emphasizes the stable growth in electricity consumption driven by high temperatures and government policies aimed at boosting consumption [8][9]. Summary by Sections 1. Electricity Sector - In August, the second industry saw a significant increase in electricity consumption, with a year-on-year growth of 5.0% and contributing 59% to the total electricity increment [3][9]. - The manufacturing sector achieved a record monthly growth rate, particularly in high-tech and equipment manufacturing, which grew by 9.1% year-on-year [9][10]. - The report recommends investments in hydropower, green energy, nuclear power, and thermal power companies, citing favorable conditions for growth and profitability [16][17]. 2. Gas Sector - The report indicates that the supply-demand dynamics for gas remain stable, with slight fluctuations in global gas prices. The LNG price in Northeast Asia decreased by 2.61% to $11.20/mmBtu [18][19]. - It highlights the steady increase in U.S. natural gas inventories and the impact of mild weather on heating and cooling demands, leading to low price volatility [21][27]. - The report suggests focusing on integrated gas companies and city gas firms that are expected to benefit from cost reductions and improved profitability [41][42]. 3. Market Performance Review - The report notes that the public utility and environmental sectors underperformed compared to the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices, while the power equipment sector outperformed [43][44]. 4. Company and Industry Dynamics - Recent government initiatives aim to enhance the quality of energy equipment and promote the development of renewable energy sources [52]. - The report includes updates on major companies' announcements, including contract wins and strategic investments, which are expected to positively impact their future performance [52][53]. 5. Key Company Valuation Table - The report provides a valuation table for key companies in the public utility and environmental sectors, indicating their market positions and potential for growth [54].

Core Insights - The article discusses the transformation of China's power system, particularly in the renewable energy sector, highlighting the significant increase in electricity consumption and the rise of green energy sources [1][2] - It emphasizes the emergence of a "new power system" that integrates AI technology to enhance energy management and control [2][7] Group 1: Changes in the Power Industry - By July 2025, China's monthly electricity consumption is expected to exceed 1 trillion kilowatt-hours for the first time, equivalent to Japan's annual consumption [1] - As of June 2025, renewable energy installed capacity in China reached 2.159 billion kilowatts, with renewable energy accounting for nearly 40% of total electricity generation [1] - The transition from traditional energy sources to renewable energy is driving the need for a new power system that can manage real-time electricity demands effectively [6][18] Group 2: AI's Role in the Power Sector - AI development requires substantial electricity, creating a significant demand for power management solutions [6][7] - The integration of AI into the power sector can enhance real-time monitoring and control, addressing the challenges posed by high-frequency and variable energy sources [7][28] - The "virtual power expert" project initiated by the company aims to leverage AI to improve power monitoring and management for small and medium-sized users [7][29] Group 3: International Power Market Observations - Differences between domestic and international power systems are noted, particularly in terms of stability and economic considerations [8][10] - Recent large-scale power outages in Europe and North America highlight the challenges faced by traditional power systems transitioning to renewable energy [8][10] - The article discusses how the economic focus in Western countries can sometimes compromise the reliability of their power systems [8][10] Group 4: Stages of China's Power Development - China's power system has evolved through three stages: focusing on power generation, then on grid construction, and now on integrated energy management [16][18] - The current phase emphasizes the integration of power sources, grids, loads, and storage to achieve a more flexible and efficient energy system [16][18] Group 5: Challenges and Innovations in Renewable Energy - Despite the low cost of renewable energy, its intermittent nature poses challenges for stable supply, necessitating advanced grid management solutions [20][24] - The article outlines the evolution of renewable energy integration into the grid, moving from guaranteed grid access to localized consumption strategies [19][21] - New policies are being introduced to support the development of virtual power plants and energy storage solutions, enhancing the overall efficiency of the power system [23][24]

Core Viewpoint - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with four other departments, has issued the "Steel Industry Growth Stabilization Work Plan (2025-2026)", emphasizing the need for low-emission transformation and energy efficiency improvements in the steel sector [1] Group 1: Emission Reduction and Energy Efficiency - The plan aims to fully complete the ultra-low emission transformation targets by the end of 2025 [1] - Support will be provided for steel enterprises to implement energy efficiency enhancement modifications and promote the substitution of clean energy [1] - The industry will conduct research on collaborative pollution reduction and carbon reduction technology pathways [1] Group 2: Low-Carbon Technologies - The plan supports research and development of low-carbon common technologies such as hydrogen metallurgy [1] - It emphasizes accelerating the pilot verification and industrialization of integrated processes and equipment for green electricity, green hydrogen, and pure hydrogen metallurgy [1] Group 3: Digitalization and Carbon Management - The industry is encouraged to establish digital carbon management centers [1] - There will be a focus on developing a carbon footprint accounting standard system for steel products and enhancing carbon measurement management [1] - The plan aims to improve the quality of carbon accounting data and ensure proper quota trading and settlement after inclusion in the national carbon emission trading market [1]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the industry [6] Core Views - The report highlights the revaluation of leading companies in the new energy sector, suggesting a balanced allocation across various sub-sectors of new energy [2][3] Summary by Sections 1. New Energy Vehicles and Lithium Battery Sector - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and seven other departments issued a "Work Plan for Stabilizing Growth in the Automotive Industry," targeting 15.5 million new energy vehicle sales by 2025, with a 20% year-on-year growth [11][12] - CATL signed a prepayment agreement with Fulin Precision to secure iron lithium capacity, reflecting strong demand and strategic partnerships in the lithium battery sector [12][13] 2. New Energy Power Generation Sector 2.1 Photovoltaic Sector - The Ministry of Finance allocated 46.183 billion yuan in renewable energy subsidies, supporting the valuation recovery of the green electricity sector, with solar power receiving 21.589 billion yuan [20][21] - The report emphasizes the advantages of solar installations and the potential for valuation recovery in both solar and wind sectors, recommending attention to leading companies with stable operations [20][21] 2.2 Wind Power Sector - Significant progress is being made on the 3GW offshore wind project in Qingdao and the 1GW project in Dandong, with the Netherlands reinstating offshore wind subsidies, which may reactivate previously stalled projects [36][38] 3. Energy Storage Sector - In August, domestic energy storage installations increased by 2.90GW/7.97GWh, marking a year-on-year growth of 30%/43%, with independent storage installations accounting for over half [46][47] - Major energy groups dominate new installations, with a notable shift towards long-duration storage technologies and non-lithium technology developments [48][49][52] 4. Power Equipment Sector - The construction of the Zangyue DC project has commenced, expected to be operational by 2029, which will significantly enhance power transmission capabilities [61] - The first industry standard for AIDC (Artificial Intelligence Data Center) has been pre-released, promoting standardized development in the sector [62] 5. Industrial Control and Robotics Sector - The PMI for manufacturing showed slight improvement, indicating a recovery in demand, with significant advancements in robotics showcased at the recent industrial expo [68][69] - The collaboration between Weiyi Intelligent Manufacturing and Jebot highlights the ongoing innovation in industrial robotics, aiming to enhance flexible production capabilities [69][70] 6. Hydrogen Energy Sector - The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission announced ten hydrogen energy pilot projects, and Wuhan's Economic and Information Bureau released financial subsidy policies for the hydrogen industry [5]

Group 1 - The user-side energy storage project in Yangpu District, Shanghai, with a capacity of 3.8MW/7.068MWh, is the largest commercial energy storage station in the city center [1] - The project aims to establish a pathway for building energy storage stations in urban areas, emphasizing safety with multiple layers of protection and real-time monitoring systems [1] - The economic viability of the project is validated, with an annual electricity consumption of approximately 43 million kWh in the technology park, and the project achieving over 90% operational efficiency, generating energy savings of about 21 million yuan over its lifecycle [1] Group 2 - The energy storage station integrates with distributed photovoltaics, charging piles, microgrid controllers, and carbon management systems, enhancing green electricity usage and reducing carbon footprints [2] - The project meets ESG requirements and participates in electricity market trading, showcasing its green value [2]

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that China has established the world's largest and fastest-growing renewable energy system, with renewable energy generation capacity increasing from 40% to approximately 60% [1] - The total electricity consumption in China now includes one-third green electricity, indicating a significant shift towards greener energy sources [1] - Distributed photovoltaic (PV) systems have emerged as a new force, with over 400 million kilowatts of new installations, including 160 million kilowatts from household PV systems, making over 7 million families "PV landlords" [1] Group 2 - China continues to prioritize large-scale renewable energy projects in regions with optimal conditions, such as Qinghai, Gansu, Shaanxi, and Ningxia, leading to the construction of major solar and wind power bases [1] - The "big base, big project" approach has resulted in significant investments and advancements in renewable energy technology, with China's renewable energy patents accounting for over 40% of the global total [1] - The average cost of electricity generated from wind and solar projects has decreased by 60% and 80%, respectively, over the past decade, showcasing China's contribution to global low-carbon transition [1] Group 3 - During the 14th Five-Year Plan, there has been a push to expand small-scale distributed wind and solar power markets, with over 7 million households adopting the "self-use and surplus electricity online" model [2] - The potential for small-scale distributed wind and solar power is significant, as these installations can be located near populated areas, leading to lower investment costs and improved land use [2] - Challenges remain in public awareness and willingness to utilize rooftops or barren land for solar installations, necessitating patience and targeted demonstrations in suitable communities [2] Group 4 - China has established a comprehensive wind and solar power technology system capable of producing a wide range of equipment and facilities [3] - To enhance product offerings, it is crucial to conduct thorough research to identify user needs and improve product design [3]