证 券 研 究 报 告 电力行业 2024 年报及 2025 年一季报综述 25Q2 把握火电盈利修复与绿电政策催化两 推荐（维持） 条主线 行业研究 电力及公用事业 2025 年 05 月 16 日 华创证券研究所 证券分析师：吴一凡 电话：021-20572539 邮箱：wuyifan@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360516090002 证券分析师：霍鹏浩 邮箱：huopenghao@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524030001 证券分析师：吴晨玥 邮箱：wuchenyue@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523070001 证券分析师：梁婉怡 邮箱：liangwanyi@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360523080001 证券分析师：卢浩敏 邮箱：luhaomin@hcyjs.com 执业编号：S0360524090001 联系人：李清影 邮箱：liqingying@hcyjs.com 行业基本数据 | | | 占比% | | --- | --- | --- | | 股票家数(只) | 225 | 0.03 | | 总市值(亿元) | 40,253.09 | 4.0 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, 大唐发电, indicating a positive outlook for its stock performance [4]. Core Views - The company's profitability has significantly improved due to the decline in coal prices, which has offset the decrease in electricity prices. The first quarter of 2025 saw a substantial increase in net profit, with a year-on-year growth of 68.12% [4]. - The report highlights that the company's operating cash flow has increased by 51% year-on-year, reflecting strong cash generation capabilities [4]. - The company is expected to continue benefiting from a favorable coal price environment and stable electricity prices in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, which supports the potential for further profit recovery in its thermal power segment [4]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for the company are as follows: - 2024: 123,473.63 million CNY - 2025: 120,598.42 million CNY - 2026: 124,721.10 million CNY - 2027: 127,416.75 million CNY - The expected growth rates for revenue are -2.33% in 2025, followed by positive growth in subsequent years [6]. - The forecasted net profit for the years 2025 to 2027 is: - 2025: 5,394.90 million CNY - 2026: 5,799.98 million CNY - 2027: 6,439.63 million CNY - The projected PE ratios for the same years are 10.70x, 9.96x, and 8.97x respectively, indicating an attractive valuation [4][6]. Operational Performance - In Q1 2025, the company achieved a sales gross margin of 16.78% and a net margin of 9.09%, both showing significant year-on-year improvements [4]. - The company's total installed capacity as of Q1 2025 is 79.11 GW, with over 30% of this capacity being under construction or approved, which supports long-term growth prospects [4]. - The report notes that the average on-grid electricity price for the company in Q1 2025 was 460.91 CNY/MWh, a decrease of 3.24% year-on-year, influenced by national price adjustments [4].