【荣盛石化】我国民营炼化龙头企业，看好聚酯链与炼油利润修复、硫磺价格上涨后利润弹性 海外炼厂扰动推高汽柴油裂差，公司依托出口配额受益。2025 年下半年，乌克兰无人机袭击致俄罗斯炼厂，俄原 油加工量与柴油出口量持续回落；美国受电力紧张与秋季炼厂检修影响，10月炼厂关停133.7万桶/日（电力相关占 比 56.24%），开工率下滑。双重因素推动全球汽柴油裂差冲高，11月欧洲/新加坡/美国汽油价差最高达27/17/25美 元/桶（较年初+ 286%/+125%/+92%），柴油价差最高41/33/48美元/桶（较年初+174%/+93%/+110%）。公司拥有 1366万吨灵活调整成品油产能及350万吨/年出口配额，可通过规划出口窗口期实现成品油价差及退税套利。 荣盛石化为国内民营炼化龙头，核心浙石化项目具备4000万吨原油加工、880万吨PX及420万吨乙烯处理能力。公 司合计拥有PX1040万吨、PTA2150万吨、成品油1366万吨等全产业链产能，是全球最大PX、PTA生产商。2022年 起推进"强链补链"，聚焦新能源与高端材料领域，投建浙石化高端新材料、高性能树脂、金塘新材料等项目，布 局 EVA、POE ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report highlights that Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493.SZ) is a leading private refining giant in China, with its core Zhejiang Petrochemical project having a capacity of 40 million tons of crude oil processing, 8.8 million tons of PX, and 4.2 million tons of ethylene processing [1] - The industry is currently experiencing a gradual improvement in prosperity, with refining capacity stabilizing and demand increasing, which is expected to significantly restore the profitability of the PX-PTA-polyester chain [1] - The company has a sulfur production capacity of 1.21 million tons, which will significantly enhance its profits due to the rapid increase in sulfur prices driven by supply-demand mismatches [1] Group 2 - The report indicates that the significant increase in domestic and international sulfur prices provides profit elasticity for the company, with solid and liquid sulfur prices reaching 3,936 yuan/ton and 3,993 yuan/ton respectively as of December 11, showing a year-on-year increase of over 160% [2] - The demand for sulfur is driven by the growth in phosphate fertilizer and new energy acid production, leading to a tight supply-demand balance, with prices expected to continue rising from the second half of 2024 [2] - The company ranks third in the industry for sulfur production capacity, and as a by-product, the cost is primarily fixed, meaning price increases will significantly boost the company's profits [2]