近日，商务部发放2026年第一批成品油出口配额，总量为1900万吨，与2025年同期持平。在本次配额分 配中，国企仍占据绝对主导地位，中石化和中石油合计获得1376万吨成品油出口额度，占总配额的 72.4%。民企方面，荣盛石化是目前国内唯一具备成品油出口资质的民营炼化企业，其旗下子公司浙石 化获得成品油出口配额156万吨。 据悉，成品油出口实行"资质+配额"管理模式，即企业须先获得稀缺的出口资质，再通过商务部年度分 配的配额才能实际出口，其中配额总量有限、集中度高，行业准入门槛高且管控严格。 （图：2026年第一批成品油出口配额，单位：万吨） 海外裂解价差走强 出口高利润窗口期 2025年下半年，海外成品油裂解价差大幅抬升，其中欧洲、新加坡汽油裂解价差创5年同期新高。究其 原因，一方面是乌克兰无人机袭击致俄罗斯炼厂，俄原油加工量与柴油出口量持续回落。另一方面，美 国受电力紧张与秋季炼厂检修影响，10月炼厂关停133.7万桶/日，开工率下滑。与此同时，欧洲炼厂的 不断退出导致的海外炼能偏紧，多重因素推动全球汽柴油裂差冲高。11月，欧洲/新加坡/美国汽油价差 最高达27/17/25美元/桶，较年初分别上涨286% ...

研报观点认为，公司作为全球聚酯链巨头，拥有1040万吨PX2150万吨PTA产能，将直接受益于上游PX 议价增强与下游聚酯链盈利修复的双重盈利驱动。与此同时，海外炼厂扰动推高汽柴油裂差，荣盛石化 依托成品油出口配额受益。公司拥有1366万吨灵活调整成品油产能及350万吨年出口配额，可通过规划 出口窗口期实现成品油价差及退税套利。 研报指出，海内外硫磺价格涨幅显著，为公司带来利润弹性。硫磺供给端炼能缓慢增长制约，需求端磷 肥新能源制酸需求持续增长，呈现供需紧平衡，2024年下半年起价格持续上行，12月11日国内固体/液 体硫磺均价分别达3936元/吨、3993元/吨，同比涨幅均超160%，月初至今涨幅约5%。公司依托浙石化 拥有121万吨硫磺产能，居行业第三，且硫磺为副产物，成本以固定费用为主，价格上涨将显著增厚公 司利润。 国信证券12月29日发布研报称，荣盛石化（002493.SZ）作为国内民营炼化巨头，核心浙石化项目具备 4000万吨原油加工、880万吨PX及420万吨乙烯处理能力。公司所属行业当前处于景气度逐步改善的阶 段，随着炼油端产能逐步稳定，需求端不断增长，公司PX-PTA-聚酯链盈利能力有望显著 ...

Core Viewpoint - The domestic phosphate fertilizer industry is facing severe challenges due to the continuous rise in sulfur prices, prompting Yunnan Yuntianhua to issue an initiative to stabilize supply and prices [2][3]. Group 1: Industry Challenges - Sulfur prices have surged from 1500-1800 RMB/ton at the beginning of the year to approximately 4300 RMB/ton currently, representing an increase of over 100% [2]. - As of November 20, 2025, the average sulfur price reached 2298.36 RMB/ton, up 110.51% from 2024, and has remained above the upper limit of the price range for the past five years since the third quarter [3]. - The price of sulfur at Zhenjiang Port increased from 2620 RMB/ton in mid-September to around 4000 RMB/ton recently [3]. Group 2: Company Response - Yunnan Yuntianhua's initiative emphasizes multiple measures to ensure supply and stabilize prices, leveraging its full industry chain and production capacity [2]. - The company is committed to maintaining full production capacity and absorbing cost increases without passing them onto downstream customers [3]. Group 3: Market Dynamics - The current high sulfur prices are driven by external market influences, recovering downstream demand, and a bullish sentiment within the industry [3]. - As of December 4, the mainstream granular sulfur price at Zhenjiang Port reached 4110 RMB/ton, marking a 3.79% increase from the end of November [4]. - The phosphate fertilizer market is under pressure, with losses reported for monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate production [3]. Group 4: Future Outlook - Short-term expectations indicate that the sulfur spot market will likely maintain a high-level consolidation, with cautious purchasing behavior from end-users and traders [5]. - Analysts predict a potential continued upward trend in sulfur prices, with the possibility of domestic prices exceeding 5000 RMB/ton due to ongoing demand and limited supply [5].

Core Viewpoint - The recent surge in sulfur prices has reached a nearly ten-year high, significantly increasing cost pressures for downstream industries such as phosphate fertilizers, which are crucial for food security in China [1][2]. Group 1: Sulfur Price Trends - Sulfur prices have been on the rise since last year, with a notable spike in October 2023. As of December 5, the price of granular sulfur at the Yangtze River port reached 4,115 RMB/ton, marking a nearly 200% year-on-year increase [1]. - The average import price of sulfur in China rose from $175.79/ton in January to $314.94/ton in October, reflecting a 79.21% increase [2]. - Recent contracts from Qatar, Kuwait, and the UAE for December sulfur have reached FOB $495/ton, surpassing historical highs [3]. Group 2: Impact on Downstream Industries - Sulfur is primarily used to produce sulfuric acid, with phosphate fertilizers being the largest consumer, accounting for over half of sulfur consumption [3]. - The price of industrial-grade monoammonium phosphate (MAP) has surged since November, with an increase of approximately 500 RMB/ton, leading to a current average price of around 6,500 RMB/ton, a year-on-year increase of 12.07% [3]. - The domestic sulfuric acid market average price reached 930 RMB/ton by the end of November, up 124% from the beginning of the year [3]. Group 3: Company Responses and Market Adjustments - Yuntianhua has called for measures to mitigate the impact of rising sulfur costs, ensuring sufficient supply of phosphate fertilizers and stabilizing market prices [1]. - The phosphate fertilizer industry is expected to see a reduction in production capacity utilization, projected to drop to 50.86%, a decrease of 5.8 percentage points year-on-year [3]. - The rising sulfur prices have prompted the titanium dioxide industry to initiate its sixth round of price increases this year, with leading companies raising prices by up to 700 RMB/ton [4]. Group 4: Future Market Outlook - The domestic sulfur market is anticipated to experience a volatile upward trend, with no new domestic sulfur production facilities planned and tight import conditions expected to persist [4]. - The demand for sulfur is likely to remain strong as phosphate fertilizer production resumes and winter storage needs increase [4]. - Global sulfur production is expected to grow slowly due to supply constraints, particularly in high-sulfur crude oil regions like the Middle East [5].

Group 1 - Recent sulfur prices have surpassed 4000 yuan/ton, with mainstream prices at Zhenjiang Port reaching 4150 yuan/ton, marking a 320% increase from the low of under 1000 yuan/ton in the second half of last year [1][2][29] - The surge in domestic prices is primarily driven by strong performance in the international market, particularly due to the relationship between sulfur production and fossil fuel consumption [5][32] - Global high-sulfur crude oil production is expected to decline due to OPEC's decision to halt production increases and geopolitical factors affecting supply, particularly from Russia [7][34] Group 2 - Major exporting countries have raised sulfur prices, with Qatar and Kuwait both announcing December contract prices at FOB 495 USD/ton, a significant increase of approximately 24% [9][10][36] - China's sulfur import dependency remains high at around 50%, with projections indicating an import volume of approximately 9.95 million tons in 2024 [13][40] - The domestic sulfur market is heavily influenced by international pricing trends due to China's high reliance on imports from countries like the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait [12][41] Group 3 - The sulfur price increase is impacting various downstream industries, particularly the fertilizer sector, which accounts for over 50% of sulfur consumption [18][45] - The production of titanium dioxide, which requires sulfuric acid, is also affected, leading to price increases among domestic titanium dioxide producers [21][49] - The indirect demand for sulfur from the lithium iron phosphate sector is rising, driven by the growing demand for energy storage batteries [26][53] Group 4 - Market sentiment remains bullish, with 71% of participants expecting further price increases due to tight international supply and rising import costs [27][54] - Short-term price pressures are anticipated, with potential for a slight correction before the Spring Festival, although a rebound in March could occur due to seasonal demand [28][56] - The overall profit margins for downstream industries are limited, which may restrict the potential for prices to reach 5000 yuan/ton [28][56]

Core Viewpoint - Sulfur prices have surged dramatically, reaching new highs and breaking historical records, driven by strong external market influences and increased demand from the downstream phosphate fertilizer industry [1][2][4]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of December 8, domestic sulfur manufacturers raised prices by 100 CNY/ton, with prices reaching 4180 CNY/ton for sulfur and 4350 CNY/ton for solid sulfur [2][3]. - The price of sulfur has more than doubled in 2025, with significant increases noted from January 1 prices of 1750 CNY/ton for solid sulfur and 1700 CNY/ton for liquid sulfur [3]. - The total sulfur port inventory in China is reported at 2.2028 million tons, with high inventories not suppressing prices due to strong market expectations [4]. Group 2: Market Dynamics - The increase in sulfur prices is attributed to strong external market performance, particularly from Qatar, where the December sulfur contract price rose to 495 USD/ton [4]. - A significant portion of market participants (71%) maintain a bullish outlook for December, driven by tight international supply and rising prices [4]. - The phosphate fertilizer industry is recovering, with production capacity utilization rates for monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate improving, providing support for sulfur prices [6]. Group 3: Industry Challenges - Rising sulfur prices are increasing production costs for major fertilizer companies like Yuntianhua, which reported a 21.88% decline in revenue and a 2.81% drop in net profit due to higher raw material costs [7]. - Yuntianhua is implementing strategies such as centralized procurement to mitigate the impact of rising sulfur prices on their operations [7]. - Analysts predict that while the market may experience high-level consolidation, the long-term outlook remains bullish due to limited supply growth and steady demand [5][9].

Core Viewpoint - Sulfur prices have surged dramatically, reaching new highs and breaking historical records, driven by strong external market influences and increased demand from the downstream phosphate fertilizer industry [1][2][4]. Group 1: Price Trends - As of December 5, 2025, sulfur prices have more than doubled compared to the beginning of the year, with major producers like Shandong Shenchi and Dongming Petrochemical raising prices to 4180 CNY/ton and 4350 CNY/ton respectively [3][4]. - The price increase is attributed to strong external market performance, with Qatar's sulfur contract price rising significantly, leading to higher import costs for China [4]. - Despite high port inventories of 2.2028 million tons, the market sentiment remains bullish, with 71% of surveyed participants expecting further price increases [4][5]. Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - The phosphate fertilizer sector is recovering, with production capacity utilization rates for monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate improving, providing support for sulfur prices [6]. - However, rising sulfur prices are squeezing profit margins for major fertilizer companies like Yuntianhua, which reported a 21.88% decline in revenue due to increased production costs [7]. - The market is expected to maintain high price levels through early 2026, driven by seasonal demand for spring planting and limited supply growth [9]. Group 3: Market Outlook - Analysts predict that while there may be short-term price corrections due to year-end inventory adjustments, the long-term outlook for sulfur prices remains bullish, with potential peaks as high as 5000 CNY/ton [6][9]. - The market is characterized by a cautious approach from end-users and traders, who may refrain from aggressive purchasing at record high prices [8]. - The supply side is expected to remain tight, with no new domestic production facilities and limited import growth due to cost pressures [9].

摘要 硫磺暴涨300%，磷酸铁锂成本会被推高到哪儿？ 在锂电材料轮番涨价之后，化工圈 "黑马"硫磺也冲上舞台。 自2024年中以来，国产硫磺价格从不足千元涨至4000元/吨上方，涨幅超过300%，市场上迅速出现一种说法：作为磷酸铁锂、磷肥、钛白粉等多 个链条的共用原料，这轮"牛磺"行情将再次推高新能源电池成本。 问题在于，对已经经历三年亏损、刚刚酝酿涨价的磷酸铁锂行业而言，硫磺究竟是主矛盾，还是一项被放大的边际变量？ 硫磺价格四倍上涨，供需剪刀差推到台前 公开报价显示，自 2024年6月中旬至2025年12月初，国产固体硫磺港口价由约915元/吨一路攀升至4100元/吨左右，累计涨幅超过300%，已逼 近2022年高点，部分机构甚至喊出"冲击6000元/吨"的预期。 这一轮行情的直接驱动在于供需剪刀差：一端是中东等地合约价大幅上调、国内港口库存降至 "警戒线"，另一端是磷肥、钛白粉、高压酸浸镍 （HPAL）、锂电池等下游对硫酸需求持续扩张。 相关监测机构测算，2025年9月国产固体硫磺月均价已超过2500元/吨，此后在卡塔尔合约价上涨和国内刚需补库的叠加下，12月初长江、镇江等 港口现货报价突破4000元关口 ...

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article highlights that Rongsheng Petrochemical's subsidiaries, Zhejiang Petrochemical and Zhongjin Petrochemical, have a combined sulfur design capacity of approximately 1.21 million tons per year, ranking among the top in the country [1] - The article notes that the sulfur price has been on an upward trend this year, positively impacting the company's sulfur business [1]

Summary of Conference Call on Sulfur Market and Nickel Industry Industry Overview - The conference call discusses the global sulfur market, particularly influenced by the demand from Indonesia's laterite nickel projects, which has disrupted the existing supply-demand balance and led to rising sulfur prices [1][2][3]. Key Points and Arguments - **Rising Sulfur Prices**: The demand for sulfur has surged due to the increase in nickel smelting in Indonesia, with prices expected to continue rising, especially during the peak production years of 2025 and 2026 [1][3]. - **Sulfur Consumption in Nickel Production**: The laterite nickel wet smelting process requires approximately 30 tons of sulfuric acid per ton of nickel, significantly impacting global sulfur supply and demand dynamics [1][6]. - **Global Nickel Production Growth**: Nickel production increased from 100,000 tons in 2022 to 200,000 tons in 2023, with an expected annual increase of about 100,000 tons from 2024 to 2026, leading to an additional sulfur demand of 1 million tons per year [1][8]. - **Sulfur Supply Sources**: Sulfur supply primarily comes from oil and gas recovery (60%) and metallurgical gas recovery (30%), with the remaining sources being relatively minor [1][9]. - **China's Sulfur Dependency**: China consumes about 20 million tons of sulfur annually, with half of it imported. The import prices serve as a benchmark for domestic pricing [3][11]. Additional Important Insights - **Impact of Nickel Projects on Sulfur Prices**: The ongoing production of laterite nickel in Indonesia is expected to exacerbate the tight supply-demand situation, pushing sulfur prices higher [3][13]. - **Beneficiaries of Rising Sulfur Prices**: Smaller companies with sulfur iron ore resources, such as Yuegui Co. and Sark, are likely to benefit significantly from rising sulfur prices due to their flexible production capacities [3][12]. - **Economic Importance of Sulfur Trade**: One ton of sulfur can produce three tons of sulfuric acid, making sulfur trade more economical and establishing sulfur prices as a core pricing mechanism in the industry [1][10]. Conclusion - The sulfur market is experiencing significant changes driven by the nickel industry, particularly in Indonesia. The expected continued rise in sulfur prices presents both opportunities and challenges for various stakeholders in the industry, with smaller resource-based companies positioned to benefit more than larger firms.