炼化行业景气度回暖

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荣盛石化(002493):公司信息更新报告:2025H1扣非净利同比增长,看好炼化景气度回暖
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-08-27 13:32
Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [5] Core Views - The company reported a 12.28% year-on-year growth in net profit attributable to the parent company after excluding non-recurring items for the first half of 2025, despite a 29.82% decline in net profit [5] - The report anticipates a recovery in the refining and chemical industry, driven by the company's steady progress on new projects and an improving industry landscape [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - In H1 2025, the company achieved revenue of 148.63 billion yuan, a decrease of 7.83% year-on-year, and a net profit of 0.602 billion yuan, down 29.82% year-on-year [5] - The company's non-recurring net profit for Q2 2025 was 0.137 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 30.92% and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 77.91% [5] - The projected net profits for 2025-2027 are 1.731 billion yuan, 3.958 billion yuan, and 6.051 billion yuan respectively, with corresponding EPS of 0.17, 0.40, and 0.61 yuan [5] Revenue and Margin Analysis - The revenue from chemical refining products in H1 2025 was 60.742 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.46%, while the revenue from petrochemical products was 52.406 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.42% [5] - The gross margin for chemical refining products was 12.08%, down 2.64 percentage points year-on-year, while the gross margin for petrochemical products was 22.59%, up 4.02 percentage points year-on-year [5] Industry Outlook - The report highlights a potential improvement in the refining industry's supply-demand dynamics due to capacity adjustments and restructuring in the global petrochemical sector [6] - The company is expected to benefit from the industry's recovery and its ongoing projects, including high-performance resins and advanced materials [5][6]
恒力石化(600346):公司信息更新报告:中报业绩符合预期,中期分红提高股东回报
KAIYUAN SECURITIES· 2025-08-27 07:04
Investment Rating - The investment rating for Hengli Petrochemical is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The mid-year performance of Hengli Petrochemical met expectations, and the mid-term dividend has been increased to enhance shareholder returns [5] - The company reported a revenue of 1,038.87 billion yuan for H1 2025, a year-on-year decrease of 7.69%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 30.50 billion yuan, down 24.08% year-on-year [5] - The second quarter of 2025 saw a net profit of 9.99 billion yuan, reflecting a significant decline of 46.81% year-on-year and 51.28% quarter-on-quarter due to maintenance and falling oil prices [5] - The report anticipates a recovery in profitability driven by improved refining industry conditions and effective cost control [6] Financial Performance Summary - For H1 2025, sales volumes for refining products, PTA, and new materials were 939.60 million tons, 760.37 million tons, and 287.42 million tons, respectively, showing year-on-year growth of 9.89%, 3.52%, and 10.59% [6] - The average selling prices for refining products, PTA, and new materials were 5,077.67 yuan/ton, 4,249.42 yuan/ton, and 6,955.37 yuan/ton, reflecting year-on-year declines of 5.61%, 19.41%, and 14.17% [6] - The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 5.63 billion yuan for the mid-term, with a payout of 0.08 yuan per share, resulting in a dividend payout ratio of 18.46% [6] Future Outlook - The report projects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 76.38 billion yuan, 99.71 billion yuan, and 123.24 billion yuan, with corresponding EPS of 1.09 yuan, 1.42 yuan, and 1.75 yuan [5] - The current stock price corresponds to P/E ratios of 16.2, 12.4, and 10.0 for the years 2025, 2026, and 2027, respectively [5] - The refining industry is expected to improve due to capacity adjustments and restructuring, which may enhance the supply-demand balance [7]