证券研究报告 东吴证券晨会纪要 东吴证券晨会纪要 2026-02-26 [Table_Tag] 宏观策略 [Table_MacroStrategy] 宏观深度报告 20260225：从利率曲线"久期分割"看 2026 年货币政策空 间 今年有"降息"的空间和概率，但节奏上需要视经济增长和金融市场形势 综合研判，基准预期为主要政策利率——7 天期逆回购利率或有 1 次"降 息"操作、或有 50bps 左右的"降准"操作，同时保留 2 次"降息"的可 能。 固收金工 [Table_FixedGain] 固收深度报告 20260225：债券"科技板"他山之石：海外科技巨头债券 融资路径演变案例复盘之半导体行业 半导体产业"高资本密集、高技术壁垒、长投资周期"的固有属性，对其 融资体系提出了严峻挑战。一方面，先进制程产线投资动辄千亿，核心设 备价格高昂，且技术迭代迫使企业进行持续性的高额资本开支；另一方 面，从研发到量产的转化周期长、风险高，叠加全球供应链的不确定性， 企业对稳定、长期、且成本可控的资金来源需求较为迫切。审视国内，尽 管 2025 年"债券科技板"已将半导体企业纳入重点支持范畴，但债券市 场的服务能力 ...

Group 1: Market Overview - The majority of stocks are underperforming today, but sectors such as electric grid, semiconductor equipment and materials, and chemicals continue to strengthen [1] - The chemical sector is entering an accelerated phase, similar to previous cycles where cyclical commodities performed well [2] Group 2: Chemical Sector Insights - Key companies in the chemical sector include: - Hengli Petrochemical (600346): Market cap of 47.089 billion, focusing on refining products [2] - Rongsheng Petrochemical (002493): Market cap of 32.776 billion, involved in refining and chemical products [2] - Lianhe Chemical (000301): Market cap of 24.954 billion, focusing on refining and other petrochemicals [2] - Other notable companies include Tongkun Co. (601233), Huafeng Chemical (002064), and Wanhua Chemical (600309) with respective market caps of 28.339 billion, 21.981 billion, and 142.694 billion [2] Group 3: Investment Strategy - A gradual accumulation strategy is being employed, indicating a traditional institutional operation method that has entered a stable second phase [3] - Holding onto these stocks over a longer period is expected to yield better returns compared to frequent trading [3] Group 4: Market Dynamics - Caution is advised regarding potential sudden market declines, although significant corrections are not anticipated [4] - The current market is characterized by oscillation, making sector selection crucial to avoid stark contrasts in performance [6] Group 5: Historical Context - Historical bull stocks serve as valuable lessons, with current bull stocks following similar patterns due to unchanging human behavior [6] - The characteristics of successful stocks include clear upward trends and compact adjustment structures [6] Group 6: Retail Investor Guidance - For retail investors, transitioning from the first to the second phase of stock performance is generally more successful than chasing high-performing stocks at peak levels [7]

智通财经APP获悉，上海石化(00338)跌超5%，截至发稿，跌5.26%，报1.44港元，成交额1754.8万港 元。 消息面上，上海石油化工股份公布，预计集团截至2025年12月31日止归属于母公司股东的净亏损约为人 民币12.89亿元到人民币15.76亿元，与2024年同期相比将出现亏损；预计归属于母公司股东的扣除非经 常性损益的净亏损约为人民币12.80亿元到人民币15.64亿元，与2024年同期相比将出现亏损。 公告指，集团于2025年业绩预计出现亏损主要由于2025年国际原油价格总体震荡下行，产品市场需求未 有明显改善，集团主要炼化产品毛利空间缩减，叠加四季度集团生产装置大修影响，商品总量下降，上 述原因综合导致集团经营亏损。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company, Sinopec Shanghai Petrochemical Company Limited, has announced an expected net loss for the year 2025, primarily due to declining international crude oil prices and reduced demand for its products, leading to decreased profit margins and operational losses [1][3]. Group 1: Earnings Forecast - The company anticipates a net loss attributable to shareholders of approximately RMB 1.289 billion to RMB 1.576 billion for the year 2025 [2][3]. - The expected net loss, excluding non-recurring items, is projected to be around RMB 1.280 billion to RMB 1.564 billion [2][3]. Group 2: Reasons for Expected Loss - The primary reasons for the anticipated loss include a general decline in international crude oil prices, lack of significant improvement in product market demand, and reduced profit margins on key refining products [3]. - Additionally, the company will face operational challenges due to major maintenance on production facilities in the fourth quarter, which is expected to decrease overall product output [3].

智通财经APP讯，上海石油化工股份(00338)发布公告，预计集团截至2025年12月31日止归属于母公司股 东的净亏损约为人民币12.89亿元到人民币15.76亿元，与2024年同期相比将出现亏损;预计归属于母公司 股东的扣除非经常性损益的净亏损约为人民币12.80亿元到人民币15.64亿元，与2024年同期相比将出现 亏损。 集团于2025年业绩预计出现亏损的主要原因如下：2025年国际原油价格总体震荡下行，产品市场需求未 有明显改善，集团主要炼化产品毛利空间缩减，叠加四季度集团生产装置大修影响，商品总量下降，上 述原因综合导致本集团经营亏损。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The company expects a net loss attributable to shareholders of the parent company ranging from RMB 1.289 billion to RMB 1.576 billion for the period ending December 31, 2025, indicating a loss compared to the same period in 2024 [1] Group 1 - The international crude oil prices have been fluctuating downward, contributing to the company's financial challenges [1] - There has been no significant improvement in market demand for products, which has further impacted profitability [1] - The gross profit margin for major refining products has decreased, exacerbating the overall financial situation [1] Group 2 - A major overhaul of production facilities in the fourth quarter has led to a decline in total commodity output [1] - The combination of reduced gross margins, lack of demand improvement, and decreased production volume has resulted in operational losses [1]

上海石化(600688.SH)公告称，上海石化发布2025年度业绩预告，预计归属于母公司股东的净亏损约为 12.89亿元到15.76亿元。本期同比转亏。报告期内，国际原油价格震荡下行，产品市场需求未明显改 善，主要炼化产品毛利空间缩减，叠加四季度生产装置大修导致商品总量下降，综合造成经营亏损。 以上内容为证券之星据公开信息整理，由AI算法生成（网信算备310104345710301240019号），不构成 投资建议。 ...

每经AI快讯，上海石化1月19日晚间发布业绩预告，经中国石化上海石油化工股份有限公司（"公司"） 财务部门初步测算，预计公司及其附属公司截至2025年12月31日止归属于母公司股东的净亏损12.89亿 元到15.76亿元，与2024年同期相比将出现亏损；预计归属于母公司股东的扣除非经常性损益的净亏损 为人民币12.8亿元到人民币15.64亿元，与2024年同期相比将出现亏损。具体数据将在公司2025年年度报 告中予以披露。2025年国际原油价格总体震荡下行，产品市场需求未有明显改善，公司主要炼化产品毛 利空间缩减，叠加四季度公司生产装置大修影响，商品总量下降，上述原因综合导致公司经营亏损。 每经头条（nbdtoutiao）——短剧大爆发，吸纳69万人就业！一度送外卖的演员也找到工作：收入还算 可观但太累，剧组常备速效救心丸，拍睡觉戏真能睡着 免责声明：本文内容与数据仅供参考，不构成投资建议，使用前请核实。据此操作，风险自担。 每日经济新闻 （记者 曾健辉） ...

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Petrochemical (600688.SH) is expected to report a net loss attributable to shareholders of approximately RMB 1.289 billion to RMB 1.576 billion for the year 2025, according to Chinese accounting standards [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net loss of approximately RMB 1.280 billion to RMB 1.564 billion after excluding non-recurring gains and losses for the year 2025 [1] Reasons for Expected Loss - The primary reasons for the expected loss in 2025 include a general decline in international crude oil prices, lack of significant improvement in product market demand, reduced gross profit margins for major refining products, and the impact of major maintenance on production facilities in the fourth quarter, leading to a decrease in total commodity output [1]

Core Viewpoint - Shanghai Petrochemical (600688.SH) is expected to report a net loss attributable to shareholders of approximately RMB 1.289 billion to RMB 1.576 billion for the year 2025, according to Chinese accounting standards [1] Financial Performance - The company anticipates a net loss of approximately RMB 1.280 billion to RMB 1.564 billion after excluding non-recurring gains and losses for the year 2025 [1] Reasons for Expected Loss - The primary reasons for the anticipated loss in 2025 include a general decline in international crude oil prices, lack of significant improvement in product market demand, reduced gross profit margins for major refining products, and the impact of major maintenance on production facilities in the fourth quarter, leading to a decrease in total commodity output [1]