电池片、炼焦煤——大宗商品热点解读 20251231 摘要 2025 年光伏电池片价格大幅下跌，6 月最低至 0.24 元/瓦，受政策、需 求和成本等多重因素影响，行业进入寒冬期，多数企业暂停扩张，开工 率降至 50%以下，库存积压严重。 TOPCon 电池是目前主流技术，占据近 80%市场份额，PERC 技术逐渐 淡出，未来 DC 电池有望成为新主流，头部企业已进行技术储备。 中国光伏电池片产能主要集中在东部沿海和四川省，江苏省以 327.6 吉 瓦位居首位，受益于经济发达、新能源需求旺盛和工业基础雄厚等优势。 2025 年中国在全球光伏产业链中占据主导地位，多晶硅、硅片、电池 产能占全球 90%~95%，组件产能占全球 83%，出口以印度、印度尼 西亚和土耳其为主要市场。 政策对光伏市场影响显著，如 2 月发布的政策促进终端需求增长，引发 抢装热潮，但需求透支导致下半年新增装机数据大幅下降。 电池片主要以出口为主，印度是最大进口国，占全年总出口量 50.89%，其次是印度尼西亚和土耳其，这些国家依赖中国低成本、高 效率的供应链保障。 预计 2026 年光伏新增装机量将大幅下滑，受终端电力市场化交易和较 低 ...

Core Viewpoint - Shanxi Coking Coal Energy Group Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Shanxi Coking Coal") has reported a safety production accident at its subsidiary, Water Yu Coal Industry Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Water Yu Coal"), which has led to its suspension of operations. The incident is currently under investigation by relevant government departments [2][3]. Company Impact - Water Yu Coal, established in 2005, is a significant subsidiary of Shanxi Coking Coal, with over 3,000 employees and a revenue of 1.05 billion yuan (approximately 0.79 billion yuan net profit) in the first half of 2025. The suspension of operations may add pressure to Shanxi Coking Coal's overall performance [3][4]. - Water Yu Coal has an annual approved production capacity of 4 million tons, accounting for 8.18% of the total approved capacity of Shanxi Coking Coal [4]. - The company stated that the specific impact of the suspension on its financial data will be determined based on audited financial reports. Following the accident, Water Yu Coal is cooperating with the investigation and implementing measures to enhance safety awareness and operational skills among employees [5]. Industry Context - Shanxi Coking Coal has faced multiple safety incidents in recent years, particularly involving its subsidiary, Huajin Coking Coal Co., Ltd. (referred to as "Huajin Coking Coal"). Notable incidents include accidents at Shaqu No. 1 Coal Mine and Jining Coal Industry Co., Ltd. [5][6]. - The overall performance of Shanxi Coking Coal has been declining since 2022, with net profits dropping from 10.754 billion yuan in 2022 to 3.108 billion yuan in 2024. In the first half of 2025, the company reported a revenue of 18.053 billion yuan, a 16.3% year-on-year decrease, and a net profit of 1.014 billion yuan, down 48.44% [9]. - The decline in profits is attributed to a decrease in coal prices, influenced by a relaxed supply-demand balance and increased imports. The domestic coal price has been fluctuating, with a downward trend in the price center for coking coal due to increased supply and decreased demand for pig iron [9][10]. Market Dynamics - The coking coal market is currently characterized by a relatively balanced supply-demand situation, with major producers, including Shanxi Coking Coal, holding significant market power. The first half of 2025 saw a wide drop in coking coal prices, leading to reduced production enthusiasm among coal mines [10]. - Despite the challenges, the demand for coking coal remains supported by high operating rates in coking plants, driven by optimistic steel consumption. As of August 28, 2025, coking coal inventories have decreased significantly compared to the previous year [10].